Thin Asia open: RBA minutes up next, USDJPY rests on support, BTCUSD slips

Asia Open, Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Published 11:13 UTC.

Mixed: Over 24h indices are down 0.34% on average and oil is up 1.06%, with USD the strongest major (0.31) and JPY second (0.11). CHF is the weakest (-0.28), so this is a dollar bid rather than a broad haven rush.

In short

• Little has changed since the Daily Wrap. FX majors have moved 0.1% or less since that note, and ranges are compressed: USDJPY is running at 0.1 times a normal day's range.
• BTCUSD is the exception, down 1.01% since the last note to 82189.49. That is just under 82200 H4 support, and our feed has no crypto-specific news.
• The first Asia test is the RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC, against a large AUD short base (CFTC -98.6K). Euro-area HICP at 06:00 UTC and the Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC follow.

Themes

RBA minutes meet a crowded AUD short

AUDUSD sits at 0.69574 under its 0.7000 cap, and AUD strength is -0.17 over 24h. Speculators have added sharply to shorts (CFTC net -98.6K from -63.2K), and November RBA hike odds are fading. A dovish read therefore has limited fresh fuel, while any hawkish signal on inflation expectations is the scenario the desk flags for short-covering toward 0.7000-0.7020.

USDJPY parked at the range top into CPI

USDJPY at 158.528 is resting on D1 support at 158.51, near the 200-day SMA at 158.54 and under the 158.70 top of its two-week range. Speculators are adding to JPY longs (¥62.3K from ¥55.4K) even as the yen weakens. Intervention rhetoric builds the closer it gets to 160, and there is no high-impact Japan data before BoJ's Koeda on Thursday.

What moved

• BTC/USD −1.01% There is no BTC-specific news in our feed, so it is trading off a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop with no fresh crypto catalyst ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
• USD/JPY −0.06% It has eased slightly off the top of its two-week range after Monday's thin Japan-holiday move, which was driven by higher oil, Japan fiscal worries and a firmer dollar.
• AUD/JPY −0.08% AUD is the softer leg into the RBA minutes, with November hike odds fading and the dollar near 17-month highs on haven demand.
• XTI/USD −0.01% WTI is holding the geopolitical premium it rebuilt on Monday, when Russian strikes on energy sites cast doubt on the ceasefire and Houthi attacks hit Riyadh.

Releases

• GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) 1%. The beat barely registered: GBPUSD is unchanged since the last note at 1.32079 and EURGBP is up 0.05%.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.51 D1 support that price is sitting on, at the top of the two-week range, with the 159.03 lower high as resistance above.
• AUD/USD 0.6966 First H4 resistance, just above the current price, inside the 0.6932–0.6995 range that has held since the 0.6903 cycle low.
• XAU/USD 4,171.00 H4 resistance that price is trading on, inside the 4100–4220 sideways range that has held since late September.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence There is no forecast, and the previous reading was -5.2%. It is an early read on the Australian consumer before the minutes, with AUDUSD and AUDJPY exposed.
• 00:00 UTC USD IMF Meeting Any readout from the Japan-US meeting on the IMF sidelines feeds the 160 and intervention debate in USDJPY.
• 00:30 UTC AUD RBA Meeting Minutes Markets are watching the language on a November hike and on 5.3% inflation expectations. A hawkish tone meets a crowded AUD short base, while a dovish read is largely in the price.
• 03:00 UTC GBP BoE's Greene speech A November BoE hike is about 90% priced, so hawkish talk has mostly shown up in the crosses rather than in GBPUSD at its 1.3200 floor.
• 06:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Forecast 3.3%, previous 3.3%. The desk sees little EUR support unless it runs hot, because French spreads already curb ECB hike pricing; EURUSD is exposed.
• 07:45 UTC USD Fed's Waller speech He is the first Fed voice ahead of Wednesday's CPI, with a December hike about 90% priced. The dollar, gold and USDJPY are exposed to any October hike signalling.

Watch whether the RBA minutes shift AUDUSD within its range under 0.7000, and whether USDJPY holds 158.51 into Waller at 07:45 UTC.