Chip sell-off drags JP225 as USD eases in Asia; HICP and Waller set up Europe

London Open, Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Published 11:13 UTC.

Mixed: Indices average -0.56% over 24h and JPY leads the strength table at 0.21, but CHF is weakest at -0.22 and gold is up only 0.15%, so the defensive bid is selective rather than broad.

In short

• Equities set the tone in Asia. JP225 is down 0.62% since the last note and 0.78% on the day, after chip-competition fears from China hit regional stocks. USTEC is off 0.47% since the last note.
• The dollar took light profits off its 18-month highs. EURUSD is up 0.16% to 1.11764, USDJPY is down 0.17% to 158.265 and XAUUSD is up 0.44% to 4193.37. FX ranges are still compressed, with USDJPY at 0.37 times a normal day.
• BTCUSD rebounded 1.51% since the last note to 83350.21, after a day low of 80964.84 that the H4 chart now marks as support. Europe opens with EUR HICP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY), then ECB's Elderson at 07:15 UTC and the Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC.

Themes

Asian chip rout, but FX stays calm

JP225 is down 1.95% over 24h and USTEC 1.62%, as chip-competition fears from China hit Asian equities. JPY tops the strength table at 0.21, yet yen crosses barely moved: AUDJPY and CHFJPY ran at 0.35 and 0.22 times a normal day's range. The equity stress has not yet turned into a broad flight to the yen.

Dollar pauses at highs into Wednesday's CPI

The DXY slipped below 102.50 from an 18-month peak, lifting EURUSD, GBPUSD and gold modestly. The desk notes that a lot of hawkishness is already priced: December hike odds are near 90% and a hot headline CPI (0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y) is the consensus. That puts the weight on core (f/c 0.2%) and on Waller today for the next leg.

Oil remains the channel feeding hike bets

XTIUSD is down 0.56% since the last note but still up 2.05% over 24h. Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport and tanker incidents near Hormuz/Oman rebuilt the Middle East risk premium. The desk ties oil directly to Fed hike pricing and USD strength, and notes a tight intraday link between USDJPY and oil.

What moved

• JP225 −0.62% Asian stocks sold off hard on fears of chip competition from China (KOSPI -7% per the desk), and the platform flagged two sharp hourly drops in the index overnight.
• BTC/USD +1.51% No single clear driver in our news feed; the desk reads BTC as trading off macro, and the rebound came alongside a softer USD.
• EUR/USD +0.16% The DXY eased below 102.50 from its 18-month peak on light profit-taking, letting the euro firm above 1.1150 despite France's fiscal concerns.
• USD/JPY −0.17% The yen firmed after BoJ Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is approaching 2%, even though Japan's PPI missed sharply (6.8% vs 7.6% YoY).
• XAU/USD +0.44% Gold pushed back toward $4,200 as the USD retreated, after dip-buyers defended $4,150 early in Asia.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1200 H4 resistance at the former pivot that broke on Monday, sitting on the falling lower-highs line; the day high so far is 1.11777.
• GBP/USD 1.3200 Flat H4 base that the desk says has held for 13 sessions; the day low of 1.32021 sat just above it.
• USD/JPY 158.17 D1 support just below the session low of 158.191, at the top of the 2-week range under the 159.03 lower high.
• USD/CHF 0.8300 H4 support beneath the Asia low of 0.83275, inside a range capped by 0.8349.

Ahead

• 06:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Expected at 3.3%, unchanged from the prior print, with Dutch CPI already in line. A surprise is what matters, because EUR speculative shorts have been rebuilt to -99.3K, leaving EURUSD and EURGBP exposed to short-covering on a hot number.
• 06:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) Expected at 0.6%, matching the previous reading. It confirms whether the energy-driven price pressure seen in the YoY figure is holding month on month.
• 07:15 UTC EUR ECB's Elderson speech This is the first of three ECB speakers today. Any take on inflation or French fiscal stress feeds directly into a euro sitting near 17-month lows.
• 07:45 UTC USD Fed's Waller speech December hike odds are reported near 90%, so Waller's hike-timing signals before Wednesday's CPI are the main test of whether the dollar's Asia pullback holds, with gold and USDJPY most exposed.
• 08:05 UTC EUR ECB's Escrivá speech It follows HICP and Elderson and offers a second ECB read on the inflation outlook during European hours.
• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average There is no forecast, and the previous reading was 23.75K. It gives the most current read on US private hiring ahead of CPI, with the USD and US indices exposed.
• 14:00 UTC USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) There is no forecast, and the previous reading was -2%. It is a secondary read on how high US rates are weighing on housing.

Waller at 07:45 UTC is the first Fed voice before Wednesday's CPI, and his tone on hike timing will show whether the dollar's Asia pullback is a pause or the start of profit-taking.