Dollar softens, FRA40 and UK100 rally in London; light US slate before Wednesday CPI

New York Open, Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: Signals are mixed. The index average is down 0.13% over 24h and JPY is the strongest major (0.24), but oil is off 0.83% and gold is up only 0.36%, so the caution is concentrated in tech and the yen rather than across all risk assets.

In short

• There is no HIGH-impact US data today. The slate is ADP's 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and the Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC (f/c -29B$), then ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC. Wednesday's CPI is the real event: headline f/c 3.7% y/y and 0.6% m/m, core f/c 0.2% m/m.
• European stocks led London. UK100 is up 0.78% and FRA40 up 0.74% since the last note, and US30 added 0.43%. USTEC is still down 0.71% on the day.
• USD is the weakest major over 24h (-0.15). EURUSD is up 0.32% on the day to 1.11883 after an in-line 3.3% HICP, NZDUSD is up 0.46%, and USDJPY is down 0.29% to 158.117, below its 158.5 H4 resistance.

Themes

Dollar on the back foot into Wednesday's CPI

USD is the weakest major over 24h (-0.15) as yields and oil eased, with our USD desk putting the DXY around 102.35, off its 18-month highs. Positioning is extended and a hot headline CPI (f/c 3.7% y/y, 0.6% m/m) is largely priced, so the desk sees core (f/c 0.2% m/m) as the bigger asymmetry. Today's ADP, home sales and budget data are second-tier by comparison.

Stocks split: Europe and the Dow up, tech lagging

UK100 and FRA40 carried London, and US30 is up 0.67% on the day on defensive and blue-chip strength. USTEC is down 0.71% on the day and US500 is down 0.1%, with NVDA off 0.9% and AMZN off 0.94% after the chip worries that hit Asia. META's 2.7% day gain is the exception in big tech.

Yen firm on crosses, USDJPY pinned under 158.50

JPY is the strongest major over 24h (0.24), and an alert flagged a 0.32% hourly drop in EURJPY at 08:56 UTC. Ueda's comments on anchoring inflation near 2% kept BoJ hike bets alive alongside intervention chatter. With speculators holding 62.3K net yen longs, the desk sees a hot CPI as the main topside squeeze risk, capped by intervention risk around 158.50–158.70.

What moved

• FRA40 +0.74% Alerts flagged a 0.42% hourly rise around the in-line HICP print and a 0.55% hourly gain shortly after, as the data confirmed energy-driven inflation without a hawkish surprise.
• US30 +0.43% Futures gained as defensive and blue-chip names showed relative strength, with KO up 1.76% and V up 1.35% on the day; a 0.38% 15-minute dip at 10:36 UTC was followed by a 0.44% hourly rise into 11:36 UTC.
• EUR/USD +0.32% Our EUR desk reads this as a USD-led bounce rather than euro strength, with HICP printing exactly in line at 3.3%.
• NZD/USD +0.46% It rebounded above 0.5600 as the dollar eased from an 18-month top, though desk commentary frames the upside as capped by Fed-hike bets and geopolitics.
• USD/JPY −0.29% The pair was rejected again at the 200-day SMA near 158.50, while BoJ hike bets and intervention chatter kept the yen firm.

Releases

• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 3.3%. The print was in line. Our EUR desk attributes EURUSD's 0.32% day gain to a softer dollar rather than the data, and an FRA40 alert flagged a 0.42% hourly rise around the release.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) 0.6%. The in-line monthly reading added no hawkish surprise, and EURUSD is up only 0.08% since the last note.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.50 H4 resistance in line with the 200-day SMA area. The pair has been rejected there twice, and today's high is 158.649.
• EUR/USD 1.1203 First H4 resistance in a lower-high, lower-low structure that has held since mid-September. Today's high of 1.11961 sits just beneath it.
• GBP/USD 1.3261 Nearest of the descending H4 highs above the flat 1.3181–1.3200 floor. Today's high is 1.3246.
• XAU/USD 4,217.25 Top of the 4100–4220 H4 range. Today's high of 4200.36 stalled at the $4,200 round number.

Ahead

• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average There is no forecast and the previous reading was 23.75K, so it is the first labour-market read of the US day for a dollar trading off its highs; USD pairs and XAUUSD are most exposed.
• 14:00 UTC USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) No forecast is set after a -2% prior, and this second-tier housing read lands in the middle of the US cash session for indices and USD pairs.
• 18:00 UTC USD Monthly Budget Statement The forecast is -29B$ against -166.8B$ previously; with Treasury yields a key driver of NZD, gold and silver this week, fiscal headlines can feed through the long end.
• 18:30 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech Lane speaks ahead of Lagarde on Wednesday, and the EUR desk's view is that only a hawkish tone could squeeze EURUSD from near 17-month lows.

Until the next note, watch whether the dollar's pullback holds through the second-tier US data, with USDJPY at 158.50 and gold under $4,200 the clearest tells ahead of Wednesday's CPI.