Dollar ends the day as the weakest major into CPI; oil rebounds as silver and the Dow slip

Daily Wrap, Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Mixed: There is no clear direction in risk appetite: indices average -0.09% and gold -0.24% over 24h, JPY is soft (-0.16) and CHF barely positive (0.06), while oil's 1.56% rise and the USD's place at the bottom of the strength table (-0.34) point to a dollar story more than a risk one.

In short

• USD finished as the weakest major over 24h (-0.34) as it pulled back from 18-month highs ahead of Wednesday's 12:30 UTC CPI. USDCAD is down 0.45% over 24h to 1.42173, and EURUSD is up 0.41% to 1.11997.
• London's earlier gains did not hold. UK100 is down 0.62% since the New York Open note and 0.67% on the day. US30 fell 0.41% while META (+4.66%) and NVDA (+2.67%) rallied, leaving US500 flat at -0.05%.
• Commodities split. XTIUSD rebounded off a 91.57 low to finish up 3.07% at 95.14, while silver lost 1.78% and platinum 1.34% as 10y yields near 5.223% weighed. Core CPI m/m (f/c 0.2%) is the number the desk digests flag as decisive.

Themes

Dollar pulls back from highs, not broken

USD ended the day as the weakest major over 24h (-0.34) as yields and crude eased off Monday's highs, and CAD (0.42), NZD (0.2) and EUR (0.19) led the bounce. The digests frame the rebounds as USD-driven rather than domestic strength, with OCBC, Commerzbank and ING calling the dollar 'supported but capped' and SocGen seeing the latest Fed repricing as stretched. Fed's Williams signalled one final 2026 hike, while Collins and Barkin leaned hawkish.

Oil bid returns as metals slide

XTIUSD recovered from a 91.57 low to 95.14, up 3.07% on the day, after the earlier dip on the Russian diesel deal; Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia keep a risk premium in place. Metals moved the other way: silver fell 1.78%, platinum 1.34% and gold 0.23%. The gold digest says it has tracked the 10y yield near 5.223% more than the USD this week.

Megacaps lift, the Dow and banks lag

US500 ended flat at -0.05% because the gains and losses offset: META rose 4.66%, NVDA 2.67% and NFLX 2.25%. On the other side, US30 fell 0.41% and JPM dropped 1.42% on a range 2.7 times normal. UK100 reversed its morning gains to end 0.67% lower.

A crowded speaker slate before the CPI print

Lagarde speaks twice, Macklem and Pill speak in the European morning, and Bowman follows before the 12:30 UTC CPI release. The desk digests describe positioning as crowded in several places: bearish EUR and NZD, yen longs under water, and AUD shorts. That makes a soft core print potentially more disruptive than an in-line hot headline.

What moved

• XTI/USD +3.07% Our oil digest covers the early slide toward 91 on Trump lifting the ban on Russian diesel imports, with Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia limiting the downside, but no single clear driver in our news feed explains the late rebound to 95.14.
• XAG/USD −1.78% Silver failed again under the $61 cap and slipped below $60 on hawkish Fed expectations and Treasury yields near 5.2%, with the platform flagging a 0.97% drop in an hour at 14:31 UTC.
• META +4.66% No single clear driver in our news feed; the platform flagged a 1.1% jump in 15 minutes at 14:31 UTC, and the range ran at 1.89 times normal.
• US30 −0.41% No single clear driver in our news feed; alerts flagged sharp drops at 13:41 and 14:46 UTC as hawkish Fed headlines from Collins and Barkin crossed, with JPM down 1.42% on a range 2.7 times normal.
• UK100 −0.67% No single clear driver in our news feed. The index gave back its London-morning gains and is down 0.62% since the last note, on a range 1.42 times normal.
• USD/CAD −0.45% USD bulls paused ahead of CPI and CAD bounced with the rest of commodity FX, although the CAD digest notes the Loonie still sits near 18-month lows after weak jobs data.

Releases

• USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average 24.75K. A modest pickup from 23.75K that did not shift the USD's pre-CPI drift lower, with the dollar ending the weakest major over 24h at -0.34.
• USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) 1.5%. Sales came in at 3.99M against a 3.95M forecast, but the USD digest notes the beat had little market impact ahead of CPI, and EURUSD still ended 0.41% higher over 24h.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1151 This is the 17-month low under two weeks of compression, with D1 RSI at 29 and momentum flattening.
• USD/JPY 158.51 This is the flat H4 range cap, near the 200-day SMA, that has repeatedly rejected price; higher lows are compressing beneath it.
• USD/CAD 1.4203 This is the floor of the 1.4203–1.4298 range in place since early October, now tested a fourth time.
• XAU/USD 4,217.25 This is the first H4 resistance in a two-week range, sitting below the 4227.28 lower high.
• XAG/USD 58.494 This is the D1 base support after the September range broke, with price near two-month lows.

Ahead

• 01:30 UTC CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) China CPI is forecast at 1% from 0.8%, and the AUD digest lists China CPI among this week's risks for AUDUSD, which is compressing under 0.7000.
• 02:10 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech It is the first of two Lagarde appearances, with EURUSD bouncing off 17-month lows on a softer USD while French fiscal risk caps rallies.
• 06:00 UTC GBP BoE's Pill speech A November hike is about 90% priced, so the GBP digest sees more risk to the pound from a less committed Pill than from more hawkish talk.
• 06:05 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech Markets still price BoC tightening despite two straight jobs losses, so any pushback from Macklem is the bigger risk for CAD and USDCAD near its 1.4203 H4 floor.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) It is forecast at 5%, unchanged, and adds to the euro-area inflation picture ahead of Lagarde's second speech.
• 08:30 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech It is Lagarde's second appearance before US CPI, with EURUSD and the EUR crosses exposed to her read on gradual tightening.
• 09:40 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech It is the last Fed voice before CPI, with a December hike broadly priced and USD described as 'supported but capped'.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core is forecast at 0.2% from 0.3%, and the USD, gold and silver digests all flag this as the swing number for Fed pricing, USD, metals and USDJPY.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Headline is forecast at 0.6% from 0.4%, an energy-led print the gold digest sees as largely expected.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) It is forecast at 3.6% from 3.4%; a hot read feeds the oil-driven inflation narrative that pushed DXY to YTD highs on Monday.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) It is forecast at 2.5% from 2.4%, and the gap to headline underlines that energy, not core, is doing the lifting.

US core CPI m/m against the 0.2% forecast at 12:30 UTC is the print that decides whether the dollar's pullback extends, with Lagarde and Macklem setting the tone for EUR and CAD before it.