Dollar firm into US PPI; USDCHF extends, EURUSD sits on its 19-month low

New York Open, Friday, 13 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Mixed: USD tops the strength table at 0.41 and CHF lags at -0.42. Indices average -0.15% over 24h, gold is down 1.17% and oil up 3.38%, which reads as a rates-driven dollar bid rather than outright risk-off.

In short

• US October PPI at 13:30 UTC is the event. Core YoY is forecast at 5% (prev 5%) and headline YoY at 6.6%. With roughly 85bp of Dec/Jan Fed hikes already priced, desk digests see more room for a soft core print to shake out crowded USD longs than for a hot one to add fuel.
• London kept the dollar bid. USD leads strength at 0.41 and CHF is weakest at -0.42. USDCHF is up 0.48% since the London Open at 0.83882, and EURUSD is down 0.19% at 1.10466, just above 1.10454 support. USDJPY sits at 160.034, below today's 160.188 high.
• Euro data was mixed. CPI (EU norm) came in at 3.7% vs 3.8% forecast and employment at 0% vs 0.2%, while HICP and GDP were in line. Crypto steadied, with BTCUSD up 0.39% at 69249.01 and ETHUSD up 1.26%. Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) follow PPI.

Themes

PPI meets a stretched dollar

Markets price roughly 85bp of hikes over December and January, and BBH flags the USD rally as looking stretched. Desk digests for EUR, NZD, CAD and gold all note that a soft core PPI has more room to trigger short-covering than a hot print has to extend the move. EURUSD at 1.10466 and NZDUSD at 0.55301 sit right on their lows going in.

Franc is the weak link

CHF is the weakest major at -0.42, and USDCHF is up 0.48% since the London Open at 0.83882, set for its best week in two years per the desk. The selling is broad: EURCHF is up 0.29% and GBPCHF up 0.38% over the same window. The digest flags the move as extended, with a haven flare-up the main risk of a sharp unwind.

Crypto steadies after the liquidation flush

BTCUSD is up 0.39% since the London Open at 69249.01 after $1.6B in liquidations, and ETHBTC is up 1% as ETH leads the bounce. The desk sees the long-leverage flush as largely done but spot demand as thin, citing ETF outflows and stablecoin contraction. PPI is the next macro push for a tape still below $70K.

What moved

• USD/CHF +0.48% Fed-SNB divergence widened on higher US yields and Fed officials opening the door to a 50bp December hike, with the SNB seen holding at 0%.
• EUR/USD −0.19% Fed 50bp-hike bets and wider swap spreads kept the euro heavy, and softer euro-area CPI and a stalled employment reading offered no offset.
• USD/JPY +0.16% Fed-hike repricing and a US 10y yield above 5% kept the pair pinned near 160, while FM Katayama's warnings on 'one-sided, swift' moves capped follow-through.
• USD/ZAR +1.03% The platform flagged a 0.5% jump in 60 minutes at 08:31 UTC, but there is no single clear driver in our news feed beyond the broad USD bid.
• ETH/USD +1.26% ETH bounced with BTC after the long-liquidation flush that the desk sees as largely done; there is no ETH-specific driver in our feed.

Releases

• EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) 3.7%. The softer print added little; EURUSD drifted lower through London as the dollar side dominated.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 4.9%. No surprise and no visible reaction beyond the USD-driven drift in EURUSD.
• EUR Employment Change (QoQ) 0%. The miss gave the euro no support, and EURUSD stayed heavy near 1.10466.
• EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.4%. In line; EURUSD's range stayed narrow at 0.37 times normal.
• EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 1.3%. In line, with no reaction as the market waits on US PPI.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.10454 D1 and H4 support at the swing low after four down days, with price at 1.10466 just above it and 1.1 the next support on both timeframes.
• USD/JPY 160.188 Today's high and the top of the 159.32–160.19 H4 box; D1 resistance at 160.39 sits above.
• USD/CHF 0.8395 Top of the 0.8382–0.8395 October-highs zone, with price trading inside it and H4 RSI at 75.7.
• XAU/USD 3,852.50 Thursday's yearly low; H4 support at 3870.26 sits above, and today's 3923.11 high is the first H4 resistance.

Ahead

• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Forecast at 5%, unchanged from 5%, this is the day's main test of Fed hike pricing for USD pairs, XAUUSD, BTCUSD and US indices.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (MoM) Expected to cool to 0.4% from 1.3%; the print feeds into whether the 14.5% odds of a 50bp December hike build or fade.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Forecast at 0.3% vs 0.7% prior; a soft core reading is the less-priced outcome for a stretched dollar, gold and silver.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (YoY) Headline is seen rising to 6.6% from 6.3%; this keeps inflation pressure in focus for US yields and rate-sensitive FX like AUD and NZD.
• 15:50 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech The first Fed voice after PPI; any steer on December hike size hits USD pairs and XAUUSD.
• 17:00 UTC USD Fed's Daly speech A second Fed read on the data into the US afternoon, with USD crosses and US indices exposed.

Watch whether core PPI shifts the 14.5% odds of a 50bp December hike. That is the swing factor for EURUSD at 1.10454 and USDCHF at the 0.8395 October highs, and for whether crowded dollar longs stay in charge.