Fed hike bets put the dollar at 19-month highs; gold, silver and bitcoin take the hit

Week in Review, Friday, 13 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Mixed: Friday turned defensive: JPY led 24h strength at 0.35 ahead of USD at 0.27, while AUD (-0.27) and CHF (-0.26) lagged. Indices averaged -0.14% over 24h with gold +0.11% and oil +0.02%, after a week in which European and Japanese equities still gained.

In short

• The week belonged to the Fed. A hot US CPI on Tuesday (0.4% MoM vs 0.3% forecast, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) and a run of hawkish Fed speakers built roughly 85bp of Dec/Jan hikes into the curve. Friday's slightly soft headline PPI did not unwind any of it, and DXY held above 103.
• Policy divergence hit the low-yielders hardest. USDCHF rose 2.24% on the week, AUDUSD fell 1.28%, and EURUSD (-1.03%) and GBPUSD (-1.02%) both ended near their lows. USDJPY finished at 159.722 after testing 160 under Tokyo's verbal warnings.
• High US yields drove a rout in metals and crypto. XAGUSD fell 6.26% and XAUUSD 4.66%, BTCUSD lost 7.71% and ETHUSD 9.45%. US tech stumbled on Friday (NAS100 -1.8% on the day) after a week of equity gains, and WTI slipped 1.84% despite Hormuz staying shut.

Themes

Fed repricing lifts the dollar to 19-month highs

Tuesday's CPI beat and a parade of hawkish Fed speakers did the work. Daly sees more hikes and Collins warns inflation is broadening. ING counts ~85bp across Dec and Jan, with ~14.5% odds of a 50bp move, and BBH already calls the rally stretched-looking. Friday's PPI miss on the headline left that pricing intact, so the bar for further USD gains now rests on Warsh or the data validating a faster path.

Franc, Aussie and Kiwi bear the divergence trade

USDCHF had its strongest week in two years as the SNB's 0% rate keeps the franc a funding currency. AUDUSD fell to 10-month lows and NZDUSD tested its 0.5527 19-month low as markets see the RBA and RBNZ on hold against a hiking Fed. USDJPY broke a seven-week range to test 160, but Katayama's 'one-sided, swift' warnings capped it, and JPY led 24h strength on Friday.

Yields above 5% crush metals; crypto in extreme fear

US 10-year yields near 5.15% drove gold to its lowest since autumn 2025 and silver to the edge of its YTD low, and neither found relief in a softer PPI. Bitcoin lost $70K and headed for a sixth weekly loss on ETF outflows, Anthropic IPO rotation and Fear & Greed at a 4-month low. Desk digests flag crowded downside hedges across all three.

Stocks up on the week, US tech cracks on Friday

GER30 rose 4.43% and JPN225 4.6% on the week, with no single clear driver in our news feed for the European rally. US tech turned lower on Friday, with NAS100 down 1.8% on the day amid Nvidia leadership upheaval and a global Microsoft outage cited in the USD digest. NVDA finished the week down 12.75%.

What moved

• USD/CHF +2.24% Fed officials opening the door to a 50bp December hike widened the gap with the SNB's 0% rate, giving the pair its best weekly run in two years per the desk's CHF digest.
• AUD/USD −1.28% Fed–RBA divergence pushed the pair to 10-month lows. The RBA is seen done at 4.85%, while TD Securities' call for Fed hikes in Dec, Jan and Mar added to the hawkish US repricing.
• XAU/USD −4.66% US 10-year yields near 5.15%, a 19-month-high dollar and ~90% December Fed hike odds took gold to a $3,852 low on Thursday, and the soft PPI gave only a token bounce.
• XAG/USD −6.26% A US Treasury rout pushed 10-year yields to near 5.13%, and silver slid back below $50 toward its YTD low. An intraday bounce to the $50.80 area was sold.
• BTC/USD −7.71% Fed-hike fears, ETF outflows and capital rotating toward Anthropic's anticipated IPO took BTC to a 12-week low near $68K, with Fear & Greed at a 4-month low.
• NVDA −12.75% Headlines on the Nvidia CEO resigning drove the stock lower, and the desk's crypto digest cites the leadership upheaval as part of the broader tech and risk-off pressure.

Releases

• USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.4%. The hot print set the week's tone: Fed hike pricing built from here, and the dollar ground higher against everything except the yen, with EURUSD ending the week down 1.03%.
• USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.3%. The core beat reinforced the hawkish repricing that desk digests credit for gold's 4.66% weekly fall and AUDUSD's slide to 10-month lows.
• CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.7%. There was no clear market reaction in our feed; USDCNH ended the week little changed at +0.03%.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 2.8%. The in-line print gave the euro no lift. A December ECB hike is fully priced, and EURUSD kept sliding on the US side of the rate story.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.7%. Solid UK growth was ignored, with OIS already implying about three more BoE hikes. GBPUSD still lost 1.02% on the week while EURGBP finished flat.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.9%. The in-line annual figure did not change the picture for sterling, which traded as a dollar story and held up better on the crosses.
• USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) 5%. Core matched forecast and the headline undershot, which neither added to hike bets nor unwound them. Gold briefly reclaimed $3,900 before fading, and BTCUSD fell 4.38% over 24h regardless.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1000 D1 round-number support beneath the broken 1.10454 low; ING calls it solid support and says a decisive break needs a 50bp Fed hike priced.
• USD/JPY 160.00 D1 resistance at the round number after the break above 159.03. This is the zone where Japan bought yen twice this year, per the desk's JPY digest.
• USD/CHF 0.8400 H4 resistance just above the 0.83966 weekly high, with H4 RSI at 79.3. ING's key level; the CHF digest treats a weekly close above it as breakout confirmation.
• USD/CAD 1.42993 D1 October cap; price closed the week just beneath it ahead of Monday's Canada CPI.
• XAU/USD 3,852.50 D1 support at the yearly low set Thursday, end of a lower-high/lower-low chain from the late-August peak.
• BTC/USD 67,505.66 H4 support at the week's low, inside a lower-high/lower-low sequence from 81,892 heading into thin weekend liquidity.

Ahead

• 23:50 UTC JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Q3 growth is forecast at 0.1% vs 0.4% prior and lands with USDJPY parked just under 160, where yen sensitivity to any MoF headline is highest.
• 13:30 UTC CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) There is no consensus in the calendar against the 3.1% prior. The CAD digest sees an upside surprise reviving BoC December hike bets as the bigger risk for USDCAD near its October cap.
• 17:00 UTC USD Fed's Chair Warsh speech This is the week's swing factor. With ~85bp of Dec/Jan hikes priced, validation of a 50bp path or a 'gradual' message would hit the dollar, gold, silver and crypto alike.
• 13:30 UTC USD Retail Sales (MoM) Headline is forecast at 0% after 0.8%, with the control group also due. It tests whether US demand supports the aggressive hike pricing now in the curve.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) Deutsche Bank sees headline at 3.8% vs 3.5% prior. With about three BoE hikes priced, the GBP digest sees a soft print as the bigger risk for sterling.
• 19:00 UTC USD FOMC Minutes Markets will read the minutes for how much appetite the committee had for faster tightening, which matters for DXY near 103 and for yield-sensitive gold.

The weekend brings Fed's Jefferson tonight and Japan's GDP on Sunday, but Warsh at 17:00 UTC Monday is the event. His tone against ~85bp of priced hikes is what would change the picture for a dollar sitting at 19-month highs and a USDJPY parked at 160.