Quiet Asia open: yen still weakest as AUD and NZD wait on Wednesday's CPI and RBNZ
Asia Open, Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.
Quiet: Indices are up 0.55% on average over 24h and oil is down 0.84%, with JPY (-0.19) and CHF (-0.11) at the weak end, so the backdrop leans mildly risk-on, but overnight ranges are a fraction of normal.
In short
- A very quiet hand-over from New York. USDJPY is at 157.533, up 0.04% on the day, on a range just 0.18 of normal. The yen remains the weakest major (-0.19).
- The one outlier is EURAUD, up 0.37% since the Daily Wrap to 1.59285, with no single clear driver in our news feed. AUDUSD (0.70144) and NZDUSD (0.5683) sit just under their recent caps.
- No Asia-Pacific data is scheduled before Europe opens. The next event is the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC. AUD CPI and the RBNZ then land early Wednesday, Asia time.
Themes
AUD and NZD coil ahead of Wednesday's double test
AUDUSD keeps failing near the 100-day SMA around 0.7035. Specs are heavily net short (CFTC -127.3K) into Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC Wednesday. NZDUSD has stalled at 0.5700 for four sessions ahead of the RBNZ at 01:00 UTC, where a hike to 3.00% is ~90% priced, so guidance carries the risk.
Yen soft but boxed in before the Fed and BoJ
USDJPY is pressing just under 157.6 resistance with the yen the weakest major. Speculative JPY net longs have risen to ¥69.9K, and a December BoJ hike is largely priced. That leaves Friday's BoJ guidance (hold at 1.25% expected) and Thursday's Tokyo CPI as the yen's real tests.
What moved
- EUR/AUD +0.37% The cross climbed to 1.59285 even though EURUSD and AUDUSD each moved only -0.02% since the Wrap; no single clear driver in our news feed.
- USD/CHF +0.12% The dollar is still the strongest major (0.23) on pre-FOMC short-covering, and safe-haven demand for the franc has eased since Trump ruled out immediate strikes on Iran.
- XAU/USD −0.12% Gold is holding just above $4,000 at 4011.92, with the firmer dollar and December hike odds around 83% capping the bounce, per our gold desk.
- JP225 +0.12% The index edged up ahead of the Tokyo cash open but is still -0.14% on the day; no single clear driver in our news feed.
Levels to watch
- USD/JPY 157.60 H4 and D1 resistance. Price at 157.533 sits just beneath it after the pair broke below the 157.50 range floor and is now retesting it from below.
- NZD/USD 0.5700 Flat H4 cap with 0.571 just above. The pair has stalled at this handle for four sessions while making higher lows.
- XAU/USD 4,000.00 Round-number D1 level from the chart read. Price is holding just above it, inside a 3976–4034 H4 box within a D1 downtrend.
Ahead
- 09:00 UTC EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey No forecast is given. It lands with EURUSD heavy just above 1.1173 after closing under 1.1200, so EURUSD and the EUR crosses are most exposed ahead of Lagarde's 17:00 UTC speech.
Watch whether USDJPY holds beneath 157.6 and NZDUSD beneath 0.57 through thin Tokyo and Sydney trade, before Wednesday's AUD CPI and RBNZ decision.