Silver slides 2.3% through its yearly low as the dollar leads into US data

London Open, Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.89% on average over 24h and the yen (-0.25) and franc (-0.17) are the weakest majors, but the dollar leads the strength table (0.31), metals are falling and USTEC has slipped since the Asia Open.

In short

• The dollar is the strongest major (0.31) and the yen the weakest (-0.25). USDJPY is up 0.16% since the Asia Open to 157.784, close to the day's high of 157.833, even after FM Katayama's 'decisive steps' FX warning.
• Metals took the hit in Asia. XAGUSD fell 2.3% to 52.709, below the 53.016 D1 support that marks its year-to-date low. XAUUSD is down 0.34% at 3998.81, just under the $4,000 mark.
• EURUSD sits on its day low at 1.11614 ahead of the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC. US Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC are the main tests before Wednesday's Fed.

Themes

Pre-Fed dollar bid squeezes the yen and the Europeans

The USD is firm for a third day on pre-FOMC short-covering, with DXY near 102.00. EURUSD is pinned at 1.11614 on France fiscal risk and soft PMIs, and GBPUSD at 1.33277 has slipped under D1 support at 1.3343. The desk flags the reaction as asymmetric: a Wednesday pause is about fully priced, so a merely 'data-dependent' Fed that fails to back a December hike risks unwinding the rebound.

Metals crack as Fed hike bets bite

Silver has broken below the 53.016 D1 support after an 11.5% two-week slide, with D1 RSI at 28 and 50 the next support listed. Gold is just under $4,000 with the 3975.7 three-month low below, and XPTUSD is down 1.52% since the Asia Open. The digests note crowded shorts in both metals, so a softer Fed tone or an oil retreat is what would change the picture.

AUD and NZD stuck under their caps before CPI and RBNZ

AUDUSD at 0.70185 is still below its 0.7039 H4 cap ahead of Wednesday's 00:30 UTC CPI (f/c 4.2% y/y). NZDUSD at 0.56929 sits under 0.571 ahead of the RBNZ at 01:00 UTC, where a hike to 3.00% is about 90% priced. Specs are adding to AUD shorts, while the Kiwi needs a hawkish OCR track rather than the hike alone.

What moved

• XAG/USD −2.30% The desk digest cites oil-driven hawkish-Fed pricing, with bounces being sold. Asia's leg took price from around $53.80 to 52.709, below the 11-month low near $53.01.
• XAU/USD −0.34% A third straight day of USD firmness and rebounding yields stalled Monday's bounce. Price has slipped just under $4,000 ahead of the Fed.
• USD/JPY +0.16% The yen stays soft into the Fed (Wed) and BoJ (Fri) as the USD firms, with Katayama's escalated FX warnings the only check on the move.
• USTEC −0.58% There is no single clear driver in our news feed. It trades near the day's low of 29158.5, while JP225 rose 0.63% over the same window.
• EUR/AUD −0.15% The platform flagged three sharp drops overnight (-0.36% and -0.39% in 15 minutes, -0.39% over an hour), reversing the late move the Asia Open noted. The AUD digest cites RBA Assistant Governor Hunter saying the bank is 'not quite yet' done fighting inflation.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1162 First H4 support in the lower half of the 1.1113–1.1276 range of descending highs. Price is sitting on it at the day's low.
• GBP/USD 1.3327 First H4 support in a pullback of lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3419 October high. Price is just above it after slipping under D1 support at 1.3343.
• USD/JPY 157.76 First H4 resistance on a recovery that is retesting the broken range floor from below. Price is trading just above it and above D1 resistance at 157.6.
• XAG/USD 53.016 D1 support at the year-to-date low, now broken. Price is below it at 52.709, with 50 the next support on the chart.

Ahead

• 09:00 UTC EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey There is no forecast. It is a read on euro-area credit conditions two days before Thursday's ECB decision (hold at 2.50% expected), with EURUSD sitting on its day low.
• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average The previous reading was 18.5K and there is no forecast. It is the freshest US labour-market read before the Fed, with USD crosses and gold exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders Seen at 0.6% after 0%. It is a pre-Fed growth check that could add to or dent the dollar's short-covering bid, with XAUUSD and BTCUSD also exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Seen at 0.6% after 0.3%. This is the cleaner underlying-demand read alongside the headline print.
• 13:00 UTC USD Housing Price Index (MoM) Seen at 0.1% after 0.3%. Housing softness is one of the themes the desk is watching for in the Fed statement.
• 14:00 UTC USD Consumer Confidence There is no forecast in our feed. It is the last major US sentiment read before Wednesday's FOMC, with the dollar and US indices exposed.
• 14:00 UTC USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) It follows a 6.4% gain last time. The desk is watching for any further housing deterioration ahead of the Fed.

The 12:30–14:00 UTC US data will show whether the dollar's pre-Fed short-covering bid keeps running, with silver below 53.016 and gold hugging $4,000 the most exposed.