RBNZ surprise hold sinks NZD; London turns to UK Budget, BoC and the Fed

London Open, Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.7% on a 24h average and CHF is soft (-0.17), but USD is the second-strongest major (0.39) and gold is up 0.76% over 24h, so there is no clean risk-on read ahead of the Fed.

In short

• The RBNZ held at 2.75% against a 3% consensus. NZDUSD is down 1.22% since the Asia Open at 0.5613, and AUDNZD is up 1.27% at 1.2527, its highest since March 2013.
• AUD tops the strength board (0.56) after September CPI hit 4.3% y/y vs 4.2% forecast. AUDUSD is up only 0.04% because a dollar at two-week highs is capping it. NZD sits at the bottom (-1.49).
• Europe's day: the UK Budget lands at 10:00 UTC with GBPUSD at 1.32812, then the BoC decides at 13:45 UTC with a hike to 2.5% forecast. The FOMC follows at 18:00 UTC, after this window.

Themes

NZD unwind after the RBNZ's surprise hold

The market went in long NZD, with about 23bp priced, and the hold forced a sharp unwind that broke NZDUSD out of its week-long 0.5670–0.5710 range. The statement said tighter policy is 'probably needed', which keeps a December hike live, so further NZD downside likely needs a hawkish Fed or soft NZ data. Meanwhile AUDNZD is trading 4.9 times its normal range at levels last seen in 2013.

Firm dollar, heavy EUR and GBP into Budget and FOMC

The dollar sits at two-week highs. A Fed hold is fully priced and December hike odds are near 84%, so the desk sees a merely neutral Fed as the bigger risk to USD. EURUSD is on a fifth day of losses at 1.11171 as the OAT-Bund spread widened back to 161bps. GBPUSD is under its D1 support into a Budget where the bar for sterling upside is high.

Oil above $100 again weighs on metals and the yen

XTIUSD is up 1.75% on the day at 102.39 after the Ras Tanura strike claim. Fresh attacks have so far struggled to retake Friday's $103.28 high. Silver is down 1.3% on the day as higher oil revives Fed-hike fears. High crude also weighs on Japan's import bill, though USDJPY is capped at 158.04 with FM Katayama's warnings in the background.

What moved

• NZD/USD −1.22% The RBNZ held at 2.75% when a hike to 3% was close to fully priced, forcing a crowded long-NZD unwind that took the pair to a 0.55817 low.
• AUD/NZD +1.27% Hot Australian CPI lifted RBA hike bets just as the RBNZ held, sending the cross to its highest since March 2013 on a range 4.9 times normal.
• XTI/USD +1.70% A Houthi missile strike claimed on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, and Iran accusing the US of not being serious about a peace deal, rebuilt the supply-risk premium.
• XAU/USD −0.76% A dollar at two-week highs into the Fed ended gold's two-day winning streak and pushed it back below $4,050.
• GBP/USD −0.18% Pre-Fed dollar buying and caution ahead of today's Budget extended a three-day slide to the day's low.

Releases

• AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) 3.7%. It reinforced RBA hike bets alongside the headline beat, but AUDUSD stayed contained, trading at 0.70315 against a 0.70535 day high.
• AUD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.8%. The beat added to the hot-inflation read that pushed AUD to the top of the strength board at 0.56.
• AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (MoM) 0.3%. The in-line core print limited how far the RBA repricing could run, and AUDUSD is up just 0.1% on the day.
• AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 4.3%. AUDNZD jumped 0.18% within an hour of the print. AUDUSD set a one-month high before a firm dollar trimmed the gain.
• NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.75%. NZDUSD fell 1.38% in 15 minutes and AUDNZD rose 1.42% within the hour. NZDUSD is now 1.19% lower on the day.

Levels to watch

• NZD/USD 0.5600 H4 support at the figure. It broke in Asia to a 0.55817 low and price is now back just above it, with H4 RSI at 26 after the range breakdown.
• GBP/USD 1.3297 D1 support near the 38.2% retrace. Price is trading just beneath it at the day's low, with 1.3137 the next D1 support.
• EUR/USD 1.1113 Floor of the two-week 1.1113–1.1269 consolidation. Price sits just above it with H4 RSI at 24.
• USD/CHF 0.8300 D1 resistance under the 0.8382/0.8395 double top. Price is pressing just above it after a fourth daily gain, with H4 RSI at 70.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC EUR GfK Consumer Confidence Survey German confidence is forecast at -31 vs -30.6 prior, and a weaker read adds to the soft-PMI and French fiscal pressure on EURUSD.
• 09:00 UTC CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations There is no forecast against a 2.6 prior. It is a secondary input for CHF while USDCHF trades its fourth daily gain.
• 10:00 UTC GBP Autumn Forecast Statement The focus is fiscal headroom and gilt issuance. With a credible, neutral Budget the consensus, a clean outcome buys GBP little, while any credibility slip has more room to hit GBPUSD and the gilt market.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A hike to 2.5% from 2.25% is forecast and about 85% priced, so a hold would be the bigger CAD-moving surprise for USDCAD and CADJPY.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report Changes to the inflation and GDP projections will shape December and January hike expectations, and only clearly hawkish guidance has much room to extend CAD gains.
• 14:30 UTC CAD BoC Press Conference Guidance on further hikes will decide whether USDCAD holds its pivot around 1.4000 ahead of the Fed later in the day.

Watch the gilt and sterling reaction to the Budget's headroom figure at 10:00 UTC, then whether the BoC delivers the hike that is priced at 13:45 UTC before the Fed takes over the tape.