BoC decides at 13:45 UTC, Fed at 18:00; NZD pinned at the bottom of the board

New York Open, Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.35% on average over 24h and the yen (0) and franc (-0.03) show no haven bid, but gold (+0.91%) and oil (+0.92%) both rose as Middle East risk keeps a premium in.

In short

• There is no HIGH-impact US data in the 08:30 ET slot today. The US day turns on the BoC at 13:45 UTC (2.5% forecast vs 2.25% previous) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC (4% forecast), with the FOMC press conference at 18:30 UTC.
• London moved the RBNZ story on only slightly. NZD is still last on the strength board at -1.63, and NZDUSD is down 1.27% on the day at 0.56083. AUDNZD has eased to 1.25428 from a 1.26022 high.
• The UK Budget was slotted for 10:00 UTC, but its outcome is not in our feed. GBPUSD is up just 0.06% since the London Open at 1.32878, and UK100 is down 0.31%.

Themes

Two central banks before the closing bell

The BoC is forecast to hike to 2.5% at 13:45 UTC, which our CAD desk says is about 80-85% priced. Going in, USDCAD is at 1.40386, down 0.16% since the London Open. The Fed follows at 18:00 UTC with a hold at 4% forecast and an 84.4% December hike priced, which leaves more room for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one, while USD sits second on the strength board at 0.31.

NZD reprice holds through London

NZDUSD is down 1.27% on the day at 0.56083 on a range 2.82 times normal, and it has slipped a further 0.07% since the London Open. AUDNZD's range is 4.9 times normal, but the cross is up only 0.12% since the London Open after easing from 1.26022. The NZD desk notes roughly four hikes by next September are still priced, so further paring of that curve is the main downside risk for the kiwi.

Oil above $100 splits the metals

WTI is at 102.48, up 1.84% on the day, on the Ras Tanura strike claim and renewed Iran-strike warnings. Silver is down 1.15% on the day at 53.843 as higher oil revives Fed-hike fears. Gold is down 0.43% at 4045.92, though both metals are slightly higher since the London Open.

What moved

• NZD/USD −1.27% The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% on a 4-3 vote flushed a near-unanimous hike call, and a firm USD added pressure into the FOMC.
• AUD/NZD +1.45% Hot Australian September CPI (4.3% vs 4.2%) met the RBNZ hold, taking the cross to its highest since March 2013 before it pulled back from 1.26022.
• XTI/USD +1.84% A Houthi claim of a hit on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery and US/Israeli signals of readiness for fresh strikes on Iran pushed WTI back above $100.
• XAG/USD −1.15% Sellers returned near $54.60 as higher oil revived inflation and Fed-hike fears.
• XAU/USD −0.43% Gold slipped back under $4,050 as the USD bid returned and oil rebounded, with the rebound capped near $4,070.

Releases

• EUR GfK Consumer Confidence Survey -30.8. It barely registered: EURUSD is up only 0.12% since the London Open at 1.11289 and remains pinned near its yearly low.
• CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations -15.3. The collapse left the franc little changed: EURCHF is -0.01% since the London Open, and USDCHF is down 0.13% at 0.82975.

Levels to watch

• NZD/USD 0.5565 D1 support just below today's 0.55817 low, near the 0.5564 18-month low cited in the news feed.
• EUR/USD 1.1113 H4 swing low and the yearly low, being retested with H4 RSI at 27; today's low is 1.11129.
• USD/CAD 1.4065 D1 resistance, also listed on H4; today's 1.40685 high briefly traded above it ahead of the BoC.
• XAU/USD 4,070.75 H4 falling resistance at the former support that capped the rebound; today's high is 4070.52.

Ahead

• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A hike to 2.5% is forecast and about 80-85% priced per our CAD desk, so a hold or a cautious one-and-watch hike is the bigger risk for CAD; USDCAD and CAD crosses are exposed.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report Inflation and GDP forecast revisions will shape December expectations and the follow-through in USDCAD.
• 14:30 UTC CAD BoC Press Conference Macklem's tone on December decides whether a hike reads as hawkish or as one-and-done for CAD.
• 18:00 UTC USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A hold at 4% is forecast and an 84.4% December hike is priced, so a dovish tilt has more room to move USD, gold and indices than a hawkish confirmation.
• 18:30 UTC USD FOMC Press Conference Warsh's language on inflation persistence and December is the main channel to USD pairs, XAUUSD, BTCUSD and US indices.

The BoC at 13:45 UTC is the first test of how much tightening is already in the price, with USDCAD sitting just under 1.4065 D1 resistance before the Fed takes over at 18:00 UTC.