22:06 UTC
Sideways after mid-October rally, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 0.70256
Range 0.7009-0.7040 with failed upside break; mild lower highs off the 0.7068 cpi high.
After the rally off 0.6950, AUDUSD has held a two-week range between the 0.7009 range low and the 0.7040 range top. The hot Australian CPI beat pushed price through the range top to the 0.7068 cpi high, but that move became a false break once strong US GDP and a steady Fed pulled the pair back inside. Price now sits just under flat, intertwined EMA20/EMA50, near the 38.2% retracement of the rally. ATR is compressing as rising support from the 0.6994 pullback low converges with the lower highs capping off 0.7068.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC and Bullock presser 04:30 UTC: a hawkish-guidance hike with crowded shorts could force a retest of the 0.7068 cpi high
- H4 close above the 0.7040 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 0.7068 cpi high back in play
- Failure to hold the 0.7014 swing low and the 0.7009 range low (fib 50%) breaks the range and the rising support, exposing the 0.6994 pullback low
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's midterm results can drive USD flows ahead of the RBA