Double bottom base, 0.7013-0.7068 range under lower highs.
The slide from the early-September 0.7237 high bottomed at the 0.6894 oct low, forming a double bottom with the late-September 0.6903 low. Price cleared the 0.7013 neckline on Oct 20-21 and has posted rising lows since. Hot Australian CPI lifted the pair to the 0.7068 oct high, the 50% retracement of the Sep–Oct drop, where it met rejection. Strong US GDP then pulled it back toward the neckline. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) but below a flattening EMA(50), with RSI neutral near 51, and has consolidated between 0.7013 and 0.7068 for roughly a week and a half under the September lower-highs line.
Support: 0.7013, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7140
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (~80% hike priced) and Bullock's presser could break the 0.7013-0.7068 range
Daily close below the 0.7013 neckline undermines the double bottom and exposes the 0.6894 oct low
Daily close above the 0.7068 oct high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.7140 sep pivot
US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and midterms Tue could materially shift USD and this read
Loss of the rising lows from the oct low would signal the recovery leg has run its course
Double bottom resolved higher; higher lows since Oct 15, capped below EMA50.
The Sep 9 high at 0.7237 started a five-week lower-high, lower-low decline. It ended in a double bottom at 0.6903 (Oct 1) and 0.6894 (the Oct 15 swing low), with price breaking the Sep downtrend line and the 0.7013 neckline on Oct 20-21. Hot Q3 CPI on Oct 28 lifted the pair to a 0.7068 month high, right at the 50% retracement of the Sep-Oct fall. A US GDP beat then knocked it back below the EMA50 near 0.7047. The last three sessions are a retest of the neckline, with rising lows intact and RSI neutral around 52.
Support: 0.7013, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7047, 0.7068, 0.7106
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (4.85% hike ~80% priced) and the US midterms the same day could materially shift this read
A daily close below the 0.7013 neckline and the rising lows line undermines the double bottom and reopens the 0.6894 swing low
A daily close above the 0.7068 month high, clearing the EMA50, opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 0.7106
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) is the first USD-side test of the range