22:06 UTC
Range-bound after Q1 2026 breakout, above EMA50 · RSI 49 · price 0.70281
0.6830–0.7280 consolidation since Q1 2026, higher lows vs lower high.
AUDUSD broke out of its 2025 0.6370–0.6730 base in January 2026 and has since traded a 0.6830–0.7280 range. Inside it, higher lows (0.6833, 0.6865, 0.6894) are compressing against lower highs from the 0.7277 2026 high and 0.7237 sep high. Price sits back on the 0.7000 psych handle, above a flattening W1 EMA(50) near 0.6925 and inside the 38.2–50% retracement zone of the 2025-26 rally. The RBA's dovish hike to 4.85% has kept AUD heavy, but that move has not yet broken weekly structure, and RSI near 49 is neutral.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6925, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 0.6890 Oct low and the higher-lows line breaks the consolidation. It also exposes the 0.6833 range floor near the 50% rally fib.
- Weekly acceptance above the 0.7068 oct high opens the upper range toward the 0.7237 sep high. A close above the 0.7277 2026 high would end the range regime.
- Holding above the W1 EMA(50) near 0.6925 keeps the macro structure from 2026 intact.
- US midterm results overnight plus ADP and ISM Services this week could shift USD and move price away from the 0.7000 psych handle.
- Iron ore and metals, cited as AUD's main driver, can alter the range read.