20:03 UTC
Range-bound, contracting, price in lower half · RSI 44 · price 0.69435
Converging range: lower highs since May, higher lows since March.
AUDUSD has been range-bound between the 0.6833 year low (March) and the 0.7277 year high (May) since Q1, and the range is contracting. The Sep high at 0.7237 printed a lower high while the Oct low at 0.6894 held above the June trough. This week's close at 0.6944 sits back below the 0.7000 psych level and both weekly EMAs, which flattened near 0.7040–0.7050, after the blowout US payrolls print (165K vs 65K) firmed the USD and the RBA hold at 4.85% left AUD little rate cushion. Price is now testing the 61.8–78.6% retracement band of the March–May advance, with weekly RSI mid-range and not stretched.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the oct low at 0.6894 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the year low at 0.6833
- Failure of the 0.6833 year low would end the 2026 range regime
- Weekly close back above the 0.7000 psych level and the flat EMAs returns price to the range midpoint
- Only a weekly close above the sep high at 0.7237 breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.7277 year high
- US CPI on Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing