Lower highs since Thursday's 0.7024 top; post-NFP spike rejected.
The 0.7000–0.7024 shelf from mid-week gave way during Thursday's NY session. That started a 170-pip slide through the Tue low at 0.6954, which extended across Friday's Asia and London sessions as the AI-equity rout and a firmer USD took hold. The NFP beat produced a two-way bar between the 0.6854 week low and the 0.6893 nfp high. Supply capped that spike at the 23.6% retracement and the lower-highs line. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 0.6875, with RSI(14) near 40 after leaving oversold readings.
Support: 0.68539, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6875, 0.68929, 0.69536
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the ema20 at 0.6875 would mark the first recovery of the average since Thursday's break
A close above the 0.6893 nfp high and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence of lower highs and opens the 38.2% retracement near 0.6919
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low exposes the 0.6833 9m low cited in the macro read
The 0.6954 Tue low is the broken structural pivot and caps any deeper retracement
Westpac Consumer Confidence on Mon 23:30 UTC could shift the read, as could Monday's Fed speakers and Tuesday's US CPI at 13:30 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's range break.
Wednesday's Asia-to-London rally peaked at 0.7024 and gave way to a range break during Thursday's London-NY transition. The decline extended below 0.6900 in Friday's Asia session on AI-led risk-off, then the NFP beat lifted the USD. The NFP hour swung from a 0.6854 week low to a 0.6893 nfp high, and that bounce was rejected at EMA(20) near 0.6890 and the 23.6% fib of the Thursday–Friday decline. Price has since slipped back toward the lows with RSI(14) near 33 and the lower highs trendline intact.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6954, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 nfp high and EMA(20) breaks the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Recovery through the 0.6954 Wed low would extend the retrace of the Thursday–Friday decline toward the 0.7000 weekly open
Weekend AI-stock risk sentiment into Monday's Asia open and Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's range break; NFP spike sold back below EMA(20).
The Wednesday–Thursday 0.7000–0.7024 range gave way in Thursday's NY session as the AI-stock rout revived safe-haven USD demand. Price sliced through Tuesday's 0.6954 tue low and extended through Friday's Asia and London sessions, leaving a clean sequence of lower highs. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) produced a two-way spike, printing the 0.6854 week low and a 0.6893 nfp high before supply pushed it back below EMA(20). RSI(14) sits near 35 without divergence.
Support: 0.68539, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6880, 0.68929, 0.69536
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 nfp high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; ema20 near 0.6880 is the first test
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low exposes the 0.6833 9m low
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could extend or unwind the post-NFP USD move into the close
A recovery toward 38.2% of the Thu-Fri drop (~0.6919) would mark a deeper retracement within the downtrend; reclaiming the 0.6954 tue low would undercut the breakdown read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's range break below 0.6954.
Thursday's NY session broke the 0.6954–0.7024 range that held Monday to Thursday, as the AI-stock rout revived safe-haven USD demand. Friday's London session extended the slide to the 0.6862 London low. NFP-hour swings (165K vs 65K) set a week low at 0.6854, and the spike to the 0.6893 NFP high was rejected beneath EMA(20) near 0.6889 and the 23.6% fib, keeping the lower-highs line intact with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.68617, 0.68539, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68929, 0.69189, 0.69536
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 NFP high and EMA(20) breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the prior low at 0.6954 sit above
Failure to hold the 0.6862 London low and 0.6854 week low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend the post-NFP USD move into the weekly close
US CPI on Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact test for this structure
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched but not oversold · RSI 33 · price 0.68724
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's break of the 0.7000–0.7024 range.
AUDUSD broke down from the Wednesday–Thursday 0.7000–0.7024 range during Thursday's NY session. It has printed lower highs since, and the AI-led risk-off USD bid carried the slide into Friday's London session. The blowout US NFP (165K vs 65K) whipsawed price to a week low at 0.6854, then spiked to the 0.6893 NFP high, right at EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop. That spike was rejected the next hour. RSI(14) is near 33, holding above oversold, with ATR(14) around 15 pips.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6922, 0.6954
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 NFP high and EMA(20) would break the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low exposes the 0.6833 9m low
A recovery through 0.6922 prior low (Thursday's NY low) would bring the 0.6954 Wed low and 38.2% fib into view
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; US CPI on Tuesday is the next test
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's range break; NFP spike below 0.6862 reclaimed.
AUDUSD broke the Wednesday–Thursday 0.7000–0.7024 range during Thursday's NY session. It then slid about 170 pips through the Asia and London sessions as AI-led risk-off revived safe-haven USD demand, and price has stayed below EMA(20) throughout. The 165K NFP beat (f/c 65K) briefly drove a fresh week low at 0.6854, but the NFP-hour bar reversed sharply to 0.6892, reclaiming the 0.6862 prior low and closing above the Friday lower-highs line. RSI(14) printed a higher low near 34 on the move, and price is now pressing the ema20 near 0.6900.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6942, 0.6954
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 0.6900 ema20 would be the first reclaim of the average since Thursday's breakdown. The 38.2% fib of the Thursday high to NFP low leg sits at 0.6919, with the 0.6942 asia high above it.
The 0.6954 broken low (Wednesday's swing low) sits just under the 61.8% fib at 0.6959, the upper boundary of a corrective read.
Failure back below the 0.6862 prior low reopens the 0.6854 week low and the 0.6833 nine-month low.
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (15:00 UTC), then Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC), could extend or unwind the post-NFP reversal.
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's break of the 0.7000–0.7024 range.
AUDUSD broke out of the 0.7000–0.7024 range during Thursday's NY session and has printed successive lower highs since. Asia and London extended the slide on Friday, and the NFP bar set a week low of 0.6858 as AI-led risk-off lifted the safe-haven USD. The pre-NFP bounce stalled at the 0.6882 lower high, just under EMA(20) near 0.6890, while RSI(14) near 19 made a marginally higher low versus the 0.6862 London low, a tentative bullish divergence.
Support: 0.6858, 0.6833, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6882, 0.6890, 0.6922
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6882 lower high and EMA(20) at 0.6890 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6858 week low exposes the 0.6833 9m low and then the 0.6800 round number
A retrace to the 0.6922 fib 38.2 of the Thursday–Friday drop would mark the first meaningful correction of the move
NFP wage and unemployment details plus UoM sentiment at 15:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's break of the 0.7000–0.7024 range; tight 0.6862–0.6882 base during London.
Monday opened near 0.7002. AUD dipped to 0.6954 after Tuesday's dovish-leaning RBA hike, then rebounded to the 0.7024 week high on the post-midterm USD selloff. That range gave way from the London-NY transition on Thursday as the AI-equity rout drove a safe-haven USD bid, and the slide ran about 160 pips through NY and Asia to a 0.6862 week low in early London trade. Price is now holding a narrow base below the session high at 0.6882, with RSI(14) near 19 and EMA(20) at 0.6904, roughly 27 pips overhead and flush with the 0.6900 round number and the 23.6% retracement.
Support: 0.68617, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68818, 0.6904, 0.69237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) lands on a stretched, oversold tape and could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close above the 0.6882 session high and the falling trendline near 0.6890 would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.6904 and the 0.6900 round number would turn the base into a retracement toward the 38.2% fib at 0.6924, which matches Thursday's NY low
Failure to hold the 0.6862 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6833 nine-month low
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 15 · price 0.68721
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7024 week high, now compressing above the week low.
AUDUSD broke out of the 0.7000–0.7024 band into Thursday's NY session as the AI-stock rout lifted safe-haven USD demand. The pair cut through Tuesday's 0.6954 low and extended a 162-pip leg to the 0.6862 week low at Friday's London open. Every bounce since has stalled under the lower-high line from Thursday's 0.7016 high, with price well below EMA(20) near 0.6906 and RSI(14) pinned around 15. Since London open the pair has compressed in a 0.6862–0.6882 band, with the session high capping the latest attempt.
Support: 0.68617, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68821, 0.6906, 0.69237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prev 29K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger USD risk
H1 close above the 0.6882 session high and the lower-high line would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of EMA20 at 0.6906, then the fib 38.2 at 0.6924 (Thursday's NY low), needed to challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6862 week low exposes the 9-month low at 0.6833
AUD/USD broke out of the 0.6954–0.7024 range that held from Tuesday to Thursday. The Thursday–Friday drop started into Thursday's NY open as risk-off USD demand built, and it extended through Friday's Asia session to a 0.6862 friday low. Price sits about 40 pips beneath EMA(20) near 0.6910 with RSI(14) deeply oversold around 12. Lower highs have capped every bounce since Friday's open, the latest below the 0.6900 round number. The 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.6923 lines up with Thursday's NY low, and the 9-month low at 0.6833 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6923, 0.6954
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2.5h, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6862 friday low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
H1 close above the lower highs line and the 0.6900 round number would break the sequence of lower highs
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 0.6923 and back toward the 0.6954 range floor would mark the range break as a deeper retest
0.6953–0.7024 weekly range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since Thursday.
AUDUSD held a 0.6953–0.7024 range from Monday through Thursday morning, with the dip after Tuesday's split-vote RBA hike recovered on Wednesday's post-midterm USD weakness. Thursday's third test of the 0.7020s failed, and the range low gave way into the NY session as a haven USD bid built. Asia extended the slide below the 0.6900 round number to a 0.6862 session low. Price is now pinned below a falling ema20 near 0.6900 with RSI(14) deeply oversold around 18, and the 9-month low at 0.6833 sits roughly 30 pips beneath.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6953, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Canada jobs print at the same time
An H1 close back above the ema20/0.6900 area would ease the oversold extension; the 38.2% fib sits near 0.6924
Failure to hold the 0.6862 session low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
The lower highs trendline from Thursday's 0.7024 top caps rebounds while price stays below the 0.6953 range low
Reclaiming the range low at 0.6953 would undermine the range-break read and reopen the 0.7000 round number
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's range break.
The 0.6954–0.7024 range that held from Tuesday's RBA dip through Thursday morning gave way during Thursday's NY session, when haven USD demand on the Nasdaq rout added to the dovish-RBA read. Selling ran through Asia and into London open today to a week low at 0.6862, with every pullback since Thursday capped well short of EMA(20) near 0.6919 and the round number at 0.6900 now acting as overhead. RSI(14) near 22 shows an oversold, stretched leg, and the 9-month low at 0.6833 sits just beneath.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6919, 0.6954
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT is an earlier risk
H1 close below the 0.6862 week low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Recovery above the 0.6900 round number and the ema20 near 0.6919 would break the lower-highs sequence; that zone also aligns with the 38.2% of the Thu-Fri drop
Former Wed low at 0.6954 caps any deeper retracement, close to the 50% of the Thu-Fri drop
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 24 · price 0.68735
Range break lower, lower highs and lower lows since Thursday.
The 0.6954–0.7024 range held through Wednesday's rebound. It gave way in Thursday's NY session as the USD bid built, with the dovish-RBA read still weighing, and the drop from 0.7024 has since printed a lower high at 0.6942 and extended through the 0.6900 round number in Asia to a fresh week low at 0.6862 into London open. Price sits well below both EMAs, and RSI(14) is pinned near the low 20s. The nine-month low at 0.6833 is the next reference beneath.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6942, 0.6954
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read in the NY session
Failure to hold the 0.6862 week low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
H1 close back above the 0.6900 round number would mark the first stall in the sell-off
Recovery through the 0.6942 lower high and 0.6954 range low would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT for USD rate-path signals
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a 150-pip slide · RSI 20 · price 0.68774
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7024 high; range break below 0.7000.
Thursday's drop began into the NY session. It broke the 0.7000–0.7024 range and then the 0.6954 prior low as the USD rebuilt on firm labor data and Fed-hike bets, overriding a strong Australian trade surplus. The only bounce stalled at 0.6942, forming a lower high on the descending trendline. Today's Asia session extended the move to a 0.6874 session low. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 20 marks oversold conditions without a clear divergence yet.
Support: 0.68738, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.69417, 0.69536
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC sets the pre-release tone
A hold below the 0.6874 session low keeps the lower-low sequence intact, with the 0.6850 round number next
A recovery above the 0.6900 round number and the 0.6942 lower high would break the trendline of lower highs
Regaining the 0.6954 prior low, near the 50% fib of Thursday's drop, would neutralise the range-break read
Range break Thursday; lower highs and lower lows since.
AUD/USD broke out of the Wednesday–Thursday 0.7000–0.7024 range into Thursday's NY session. A dovish RBA read and a recovering USD drove the move, which cut through the Wed low at 0.6954 and extended in the Asia session to a fresh week low near the 0.6884 session low. The only bounce stalled at the 0.6942 Asia high, beneath EMA(20) now near 0.6935, so the lower-highs sequence is intact. RSI(14) near 16 shows a stretched, deeply oversold leg trading roughly 50 pips below EMA(20).
Support: 0.6884, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.6954, 0.7024
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.6954 Wed low, which also sits at the 50% fib of the Thu high–low leg, would neutralise the breakdown
Recovery above the 0.7024 Thu high invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6884 session low exposes the 0.6850 round number
A break of the lower highs line from Thursday's high would mark the first structural shift
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7024 high; week range low broken.
Thursday's sell-off began at the London-NY transition and ran through NY hours, slicing about 130 pips from the 0.7024 high. It broke the 0.6954 12-day low as a split-vote, dovish-read RBA and a USD bid unwound the post-election bounce. The Asia session extended the move to a 0.6892 week low, and price is now holding at the 0.6900 round number. The only bounce, an Asian high at 0.6942, stalled at the ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of the Thu sell-off, and lower highs remain intact. With RSI(14) near 18, momentum is stretched, but there is no divergence yet. The 0.6923 prior shelf from late Thursday is the first overhead reference.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68918
Resistance: 0.6923, 0.6942, 0.6954
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6942 ema20 and lower highs line would mark the first break in Thursday's sequence
Recovery back above the 0.6954 12-day low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6892 week low and 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Higher RSI low on a retest of the week low would flag bullish divergence
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp extension · RSI 23 · price 0.68983
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7024 high, week range broken.
Thursday's NY session turned the 0.7024 rebound high into a 130-pip slide. Renewed focus on the RBA's dovish split-vote guidance and a firmer USD drove the move through the 0.6954 prior low, which had held as the week's range floor, and Friday's Asian session extended it to a 0.6894 session low. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with lower highs capping each bounce, and RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, with the 0.6900 psych level, the 0.6923 asian base and the 0.6954 prior low stacked overhead.
Support: 0.68944
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.69225, 0.69536
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC is an earlier risk
An H1 close back above the 0.6900 psych level and the 0.6923 asian base would mark the first break in the lower-highs sequence
The 0.6954 prior low sits beside the 50% retracement of the Thursday sell-off; a reclaim there would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6894 session low extends the lower-low structure with oversold RSI(14) still unresolved
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 21 · price 0.69138
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 0.6954–0.7024 range.
Thursday's NY session broke the week's 0.6954–0.7024 range. AUDUSD slid about 110 pips from the 0.7024 London high as the USD recovered on the 189K claims print and hawkish Fed commentary. Price set a fresh session low near 0.6914 in Asia, below a falling EMA(20) near 0.6952, with RSI(14) pinned around 21 and no bullish divergence yet. The prior low at 0.6954 now lines up with EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the slide as overhead resistance, while the Asia high at 0.6942 caps the lower-highs sequence.
Support: 0.69136, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69417, 0.69536, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
An hourly close back above the 0.6954 prior low and EMA(20) would recast the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the session low
A break above the 0.6942 Asia high and the lower-highs line would mark the first pause in the slide, with the 0.7000 psych level the range pivot above
Range break below prior low; tight base at week low.
Thursday's NY session flipped the week. A ~100-pip slide from 0.7024 cut through Wednesday's 0.6954 prior low as the US claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks revived the USD, taking AUDUSD to a week low of 0.6922. Price is now compressing in a 0.6922–0.6942 Asian range below a falling EMA(20) near 0.6958, with RSI(14) oversold around 26 and flattening, while the 0.7000 psych pivot that held Wednesday–Thursday sits ~70 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69225, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69417, 0.69555, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6955 prior low and EMA(20) would mark Thursday's break as a false break
Clearance of the 0.6942 Asia high puts the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's drop at 0.6961 in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6922 week low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, lower highs and lows since Thursday's London-NY transition.
After holding 0.6954–0.7024 from Wednesday into Thursday's London session, the pair broke lower in Thursday's NY session. The USD recovered on the jobless-claims beat and hawkish Fed commentary, taking out Wednesday's 0.6954 prior low and printing a week low at 0.6923. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 20, and the early Asia session bounce stalled at the 0.6942 bounce high. That cap sits below the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's decline near 0.6961.
Support: 0.69225, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69417, 0.69536, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6954 prior low would mark a false break of the range floor
A break below the 0.6923 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
Recovery of the 0.7000 psych pivot would neutralise Thursday's decline
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg into oversold · RSI 13 · price 0.69274
Range break lower; lower highs since Thursday NY.
Monday's drift from 0.7030 and the post-RBA slide found a floor at the 0.6954 prior low in Wednesday's Asian session, and London lifted the pair back into a 0.7000–0.7024 band through Thursday morning. That range gave way into Thursday's NY session as USD clawed back post-midterm losses on 189K jobless claims and hawkish Fed talk, taking out 0.6954 and printing a 0.6922 week low with a clean run of lower highs. Price sits roughly 35 pips below the ema20 near 0.6964, with RSI(14) near 13 after a near one-way ~100-pip leg.
Support: 0.69225, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69536, 0.69635, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) plus AHE could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above the 0.6954 prior low and the ema20 near 0.6964 would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6922 week low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Rebound capped at the 38.2% fib near 0.6961 keeps the lower highs sequence intact; 0.7000 psych is the former range pivot
Lower low with RSI holding above its current oversold reading would set up bullish divergence