21:06 UTC
Downtrend since Sep 9 peak, rebound off lows · RSI 37 · price 0.69651
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237, corrective bounce from 0.6903.
The Jul–Aug uptrend ended at the Sep 9 peak of 0.7237. Since then the pair has made three straight weekly lower lows into the 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1, staying under a falling EMA20 (~0.7039) and an EMA50 (~0.7061) that has rolled over. The bounce from that low came on the soft US payrolls and a cooling USD, and price is now pressing the 23.6% fib of the Sep decline (~0.6982) just below the 0.7000 round number. The September trendline sits overhead near 0.7018.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.7000, 0.7061
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7000 round number and the September trendline (~0.7018) would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% retracement near 0.7031 into view
- EMA50 at ~0.7061 is the swing-trend filter; the downtrend read holds while price stays below it
- Rejection at the 23.6% fib and a break of the 0.6903 swing low would extend the lower-low chain toward the June low at 0.6865
- FOMC Minutes Wed 7 Oct 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
- RBA Minutes Tue 13 Oct 00:30 UTC are the next domestic test for November hike pricing