21:08 UTC
Downtrend from Sep 9 high, oversold bounce stalling · RSI 31 · price 0.69513
Lower highs and lower lows since Sep 9; range break Sep 23.
The four-week Sep decline from the 0.7237 sep high has printed lower highs at 0.7140 and 0.7045. The Sep 23 range break below 0.7075 accelerated the slide to a 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1, retracing roughly three-quarters of the June–September rally. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA(50) rolling over, and RSI touched oversold near 26 before the weak US payrolls print lifted it, but the bounce stalled at the 0.6975 bounce high as 5%+ US yields kept the dollar bid despite in-line RBA and CPI outcomes.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7045, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.6975 bounce high and 0.7000 puts the 0.7045 breakdown shelf and the 38.2% Sep decline fib near 0.7030 back in play
- Failure to hold the 0.6903 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6865 june low
- The lower highs trendline from the Sep high sits near 0.7020; a close back above it is the first sign the downtrend is losing shape
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and the US 10y yield direction could materially shift this read