Thursday's NY-session selloff bottomed at 0.6903. Price has since printed a sequence of higher lows, helped by Friday's soft NFP spike to the 0.6975 Friday high and Monday's beat on Australian PMIs. Monday's rally off the 0.6932 Monday low began in the Asia session, picked up at the London open and extended in NY after the pullback low at 0.6950 held. Price now sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50), pressing the Friday high, which lines up with the 78.6% fib retracement of the 0.6994–0.6903 decline, with RSI(14) near 58 and well short of overbought.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 Friday high opens the 0.6994 Sep 30 high and the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6950 pullback low and the higher-low trendline weakens the recovery read
A slip back below the 0.6942 weekly open puts the 0.6932 Monday low in focus
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue and the FOMC Minutes on Wed could shift this read via US yields
Higher lows from 0.6903; equal highs forming at 0.6973–0.6975.
AUDUSD has built a run of higher lows since Thursday's 0.6903 low. The London open lifted price from Monday's 0.6932 Asia low, and a NY dip to the 0.6950 mon ny low was bought back above EMA(20) in the first hour of the ISM release. Price is now consolidating just under the 0.6975 friday high, set on the soft-NFP spike, which also marks the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 0.6994 wed high. RSI(14) sits near 61, short of overbought, and firmer Australian PMIs underpin the bounce while elevated US yields keep the 0.7000 round number in view as a cap.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6950, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 friday high clears the 78.6% fib of the decline and exposes the 0.6994 wed high and 0.7000 round number
Repeated rejection at 0.6973–0.6975 leaves equal highs capping the move; loss of ema20 and the 0.6950 mon ny low would break the intraday higher-low sequence
Break of the higher lows trendline near the 0.6942 weekly open reopens the 0.6903 Thursday low
Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
21:06 UTC
Recovery from Thursday low, stalling at resistance · RSI 66 · price 0.6972
Higher lows since Thursday, capped at 0.6975 friday high.
AUDUSD has carved higher lows since Thursday's 0.6903 low. It opened the week at 0.6942 and set a 0.6932 monday low in the Asia session, then climbed through London and NY on the back of Friday's soft NFP and Monday's AU PMI beats. The NY session dip held at 0.6950, the mon ny low, and price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the Sep 30–Oct 1 decline. Late Monday it is compressing just under the 0.6975 friday high, while the broadly firm USD on high Treasury yields keeps supply active into that level.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6975 friday high opens the 0.6994 cpi high and 0.7000 round number
Break below the 0.6950 mon ny low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.6942 weekly open and 0.6932 monday low
Loss of the higher-lows line from Thursday's low would shift the read back to the decline
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
AUDUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's 0.6903 NY-session trough. Friday's soft US NFP spiked price to the 0.6975 nfp high, which also sits at the 78.6% retracement of the Wed-Thu decline from 0.6994. Monday opened with a gap down near the 0.6942 weekly open and found its asia low at 0.6932, then recovered through London and NY on firmer Australian PMIs. Price now sits back under the nfp high, with the ema20 near 0.6961 catching the NY-hours dip and RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.6961, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 nfp high opens the 0.6994 wed high and the 0.7000 round number
Repeated rejection at 0.6975 with a close below the ema20 would turn the move into a range between the weekly open and the nfp high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.6932 asia low negates the recovery structure
Fed Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via US yields
AUDUSD gapped down to 0.6942 at Monday's open. It found the week low at 0.6932 in the Asia session, still well above Thursday's 0.6903 trough, then climbed through London. After the ISM services miss, price pushed to 0.6973, which stalled just under the 0.6975 friday high set on the soft NFP spike, a rejection that repeats Friday's fade from the same zone. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s, and the higher-lows line from Thursday sits beneath, with the ny low at 0.6950 and price above the 61.8% level of the Wednesday–Thursday drop fib.
Support: 0.69495, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 friday high (78.6% of the Wednesday–Thursday drop fib) opens the path to the 0.6994 prior high and 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6950 ny low and the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6932 week low
Fed's Williams and Bowman (Tue 13:05/14:45 UTC) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
AiG Industry Index Tue 22:00 UTC is a minor AUD-side risk during the Asia session
Higher lows from 0.6903; lower high under 0.6975 nfp high.
AUD/USD has built higher lows since Thursday's NY-session low at 0.6903. Friday's soft NFP spike tagged the 0.6975 nfp high, right at the 78.6% retracement of the decline from Wednesday's 0.6994 cpi high, before fading. Monday gapped below Friday's close at the 0.6942 weekly open and dipped to the 0.6932 asia low, then London lifted price back above the 0.6952 ema20 to a 0.6967 session high; price is now compressing near the 61.8% level with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.6952, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69668, 0.69752, 0.69943
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) lands within the hour and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6967 session high and 0.6975 nfp high exposes the 0.6994 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.6952 ema20 and 0.6942 weekly open puts the higher lows trendline and 0.6932 asia low in focus
Break below the 0.6932 asia low ends the higher-low sequence and the recovery read
Higher lows since 0.6903, capped below the NFP spike high.
Since Thursday's 0.6903 week low, price has printed higher lows at 0.6913 and Monday's 0.6932 asia low. The asia low held near the 61.8% retrace of Friday's soft-NFP spike to the 0.6975 nfp high. London absorbed Monday's gap-lower open and lifted price to a 0.6967 session high, and price now holds above the ema20 near 0.6953 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, so momentum is steady rather than stretched; haven USD demand has kept rallies below the NFP high.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6975, 0.6996
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags it as the key USD driver today
H1 close above the 0.6975 nfp high opens the 0.6996 prior high and the 0.7000 handle
H1 close back below the ema20 near 0.6953 returns price to Friday's post-NFP range
Failure to hold the 0.6932 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6903 week low
11:06 UTC
Recovery off week low, below Friday high · RSI 60 · price 0.69612
Higher lows since 0.6903 inside a 0.6903–0.6975 range.
The dominant move of the week was the 0.7007–0.6903 slide into Wednesday's NY session. Since then H1 has printed higher lows along a higher-low trendline, while Friday's soft-NFP spike to the 0.6975 nfp high faded during NY hours as safe-haven USD demand offset the weak payrolls. Monday's gap lower was filled after an Asia dip to the monday low at 0.6932, and London lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.6951 into the 61.8% fib of the week decline at 0.6967, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; consensus is near 55
An H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 and the 0.6975 nfp high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of EMA(20) and the monday low at 0.6932 would break the higher-low trendline and expose the 0.6903 week low
Middle East headlines driving safe-haven USD flows can override the data read
Higher lows vs lower highs since Thursday's low, compressing.
AUDUSD slid from 0.7007 on Tuesday to a 0.6903 week low in Thursday's NY session, but has since printed higher lows at 0.6913 and the 0.6932 monday low against lower highs at the 0.6975 nfp high and today's 0.6966 session high, compressing into a pennant. Friday's NFP miss sparked a spike that faded through NY, and London has now lifted price back above ema20 (~0.6952) into the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, where the latest advance has stalled. RSI(14) near 55 is mid-range, consistent with compression rather than impulse, while the digest points to haven USD demand offsetting the soft payrolls.
Support: 0.6952, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6975 nfp high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.6952 and then the 0.6932 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 0.6903 week low resumes the Tuesday–Thursday downtrend
Rejection at the 0.6966 session high / 61.8% retrace keeps the pennant intact
09:07 UTC
Recovery off last week's low, higher lows forming · RSI 62 · price 0.69617
Higher lows from 0.6903 beneath a lower-high line from 0.7007.
Higher lows have followed Thursday's NY-session low at 0.6903: first on Friday, then at the 0.6932 asia low after today's gap-down open, as haven USD demand faded. The London open then lifted price back through the weekly open at 0.6942 and the 50% fib of the 0.7007–0.6903 slide. Friday's NFP-miss spike to the 0.6975 nfp high was rejected during NY hours. Price now presses the 61.8% fib at 0.6967, where the lower-high line from Tuesday's 0.7007 top also runs. RSI(14) near 62 and price above a flattening EMA(20) at 0.6949 frame a consolidation between 0.6932 and 0.6975.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib and lower-high line near 0.6967 shifts the read from consolidation toward a recovery leg
Acceptance above the 0.6975 nfp high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6932 asia low breaks the higher-low line and the higher-low sequence
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:05 UTC
Recovering from Thursday low, below week high · RSI 53 · price 0.6954
Lower highs from 0.7007; higher lows since Thursday's 0.6903 low.
AUDUSD slid from Tuesday's 0.7007 week high to the 0.6903 week low in Thursday's NY session on rising US yields, then printed higher lows into Friday's soft NFP. The data spiked the pair to the 0.6975 nfp high, but supply capped it between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib, and it gave back the move during NY hours. Monday's Asia session gapped lower to the 0.6932 monday low before London open lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.6948 to retest the 50% fib and the monday high near 0.6958, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.6948, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6975, 0.7007
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6958 monday high opens the path back to the 0.6975 nfp high and the 61.8% fib
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; the 0.7000 psych level sits just under the 0.7007 week high
A break back below EMA(20) and the 0.6932 monday low would break the higher-low trendline and expose the 0.6903 week low
Narrowing range 0.6932–0.6958 above a higher-lows sequence from Thursday's low.
The week's dominant move was the slide from Tuesday's 0.7007 week high to Thursday's 0.6903 week low in NY hours. Friday's soft US NFP then drove a spike to the 0.6975 nfp high, which met rejection and faded into the close. Monday gapped lower and the Asian session dipped to the 0.6932 monday low, which held near the 61.8% retracement of the nfp recovery and kept the higher-lows line intact above Friday's 0.6913 higher low. Price is now pinned just under converged EMA20/EMA50 near 0.6945 with RSI(14) at 45, squeezed between the higher-lows line and lower highs below the 0.6958 monday high.
Support: 0.69319, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69576, 0.69752, 0.70067
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high at 0.6958 and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 0.6975 nfp high
Failure to hold the monday low at 0.6932 and the higher-lows line exposes Friday's higher low at 0.6913 and the 0.6903 week low
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a soft print brings the 0.7007 week high back into range
Higher lows off 0.6903, lower high at 0.6958, price coiling just under EMA cluster.
The slide from Tuesday's 0.7007 high bottomed at the 0.6903 Thursday low in NY hours. Friday's soft NFP lifted the pair to 0.6975, but supply capped it short of the 61.8% retracement of the slide and it faded into the close. Monday's Asia session opened below Friday's close, and the haven USD bid on Yemen headlines pushed price back to the 0.6932 Monday low, leaving it just under the weekly open and EMA(20)/EMA(50), both near 0.6944, with RSI(14) at 44. Higher lows off the Thursday low are intact, while the 0.6958 Monday high marks a lower high under the NFP high.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6943, 0.6958, 0.6975
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.6943 puts the 0.6958 Monday high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6932 Monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.6913 Friday low
Loss of the 0.6903 Thursday low would resume the prior downtrend structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a move through the 0.6975 NFP high would mark a higher high
Lower highs from 0.7007, higher lows off the 0.6903 week low; mid-range below EMA20.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 0.7007 peak. The main legs lower came in NY hours Wednesday and Thursday as US yields climbed, ending at the 0.6903 week low. Friday's soft payrolls lifted price to the 0.6975 nfp high, but that spike stalled under the lower-highs line and was fully given back. Monday gapped lower and slipped back below EMA(20) at 0.6945 during the Asia session as USD drew safe-haven demand, testing the monday low near 0.6932. That leaves price around the 32% level of the Tue-Thu drop fib, with higher lows off Thursday still intact.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6958, 0.6975
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6932 monday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6913 friday low
Loss of the 0.6903 week low would extend the downtrend from Tuesday
Recovery through ema20 and the 0.6958 monday high reopens the 0.6975 nfp high and the lower-highs line
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7022; NFP bounce retracing into 50–61.8% zone.
The week's dominant move was the five-session slide from 0.7022 to the 0.6903 week low, with most of the damage done in London and NY hours as US yields climbed. Friday's 29K payrolls miss drove an NY-session spike to the 0.6975 nfp high, but that rebound has faded. Monday's Asia session gapped lower to the 0.6942 weekly open, was rejected at the 0.6958 asia high and slid back below EMA(20) to the 0.6932 asia low after the TD-MI inflation gauge slumped to 2.8%, leaving price between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the NFP rebound with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6942, 0.6958, 0.6975
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6942 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the Asia-session rejection; a break of the 0.6958 asia high reopens the 0.6975 nfp high
Failure to hold the 0.6932 asia low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6931 breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.6913 friday low, then the 0.6903 week low
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read, particularly via Prices Paid and Employment
Lower highs since Tue; Fri 0.6975 peak capped below Wed 0.6987, now testing 0.6931.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's post-RBA drop from 0.7029. Thursday's NY-session slide set the week low at 0.6903. Friday's soft NFP lifted the pair to the 0.6975 nfp high in the first hour of NY, but supply capped the move below Wednesday's 0.6987, and Monday's Asia session has unwound most of it. A single-bar drop from the 0.6958 monday high took price back under the weekly open at 0.6942 and EMA(20) near 0.6946 to test 0.6931, the 61.8% fib of the NFP rebound, as haven USD demand and the TD-MI gauge plunge to 2.8% weighed. RSI(14) at 41 sits below midline.
Support: 0.6931, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6942, 0.6958, 0.6975
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.6931 61.8% fib exposes Friday's 0.6913 higher low and the 0.6903 week low (0.6905-0.6900 zone)
Recovery above the 0.6942 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the Asia-session break; a close above the 0.6958 monday high breaks the lower-high line
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 0.6975 nfp high back in play
Post-NFP break of lower-high line, now basing between 0.6942 and 0.6958.
The week's dominant move was the Tue–Thu slide from 0.7029 to 0.6903, a sequence of lower highs as rising US yields weighed, with higher lows forming off Thursday's NY low. Friday's soft NFP (29K vs 90K) broke the lower-high line with a spike to the 0.6975 nfp high, but the move faded into the NY close. Monday's gap down to the 0.6942 weekly open filled in the Asia session, and price now sits on a converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) at the 38.2% fib near 0.6950, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6931, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6931 swing low
Failure to hold 0.6931 would put the 0.6903 prior wk low back in play
Close above the 0.6958 asian high reopens the 0.6975 nfp high, with the 0.7000 round number above
Lower-highs line broken; Asian range 0.6942–0.6958 above week low.
From Tuesday to Thursday, price carved lower highs off the 0.7029 RBA-day high, reaching a 0.6903 week low in Thursday's NY session as US yields climbed. The lower-highs line gave way early Friday, and the 29K NFP miss then lifted the pair to the 0.6975 nfp high. That spike retraced to the 38.2% fib near 0.6945, and Monday's Asian range (asian low 0.6942, asian high 0.6958) now sits just above the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) at 0.6950, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and the higher-lows line from Friday's 0.6913 low intact.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69418, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69576, 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6975 nfp high extends the higher-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
Break of the 0.6942 asian low and the higher-lows line exposes the 50% fib at 0.6939, then the 0.6903 week low
Repeated rejection at the 0.6958 asian high keeps price ranging around EMA(20)
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into consolidation · RSI 55 · price 0.69517
Lower highs from 0.7029; higher low at 0.6913 after 0.6903 week low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 0.7029 top, set just before the dovish RBA hike, with the leg to the 0.6903 week low coming in NY hours Thursday. Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to the 0.6975 nfp high, but the rally stalled between the 50% fib and Wednesday's 0.6987 lower high and faded back to the 38.2% fib near 0.6951. Monday opened with a gap down to the 0.6942 gap low that filled back to Friday's close during the Asia session, leaving price pinned at EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 55, above the higher lows line from Thursday and below the 0.7000 round number.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6942, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6987, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 nfp high would challenge the lower highs sequence, with the 0.6987 lower high and 0.7000 round number next
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.6951 and EMA(20) shifts the consolidation back toward the 0.6942 gap low
Loss of the 0.6942 gap low and the higher lows line from Thursday reopens the 0.6903 week low
US ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; AU Services PMI result just released, not yet in inputs