Lower-highs line broken Friday; higher low at 0.6913 since Thursday's week low.
The week's dominant leg ran from Tuesday's RBA-spike high at 0.7029 to Thursday's NY-session week low at 0.6903, with a clean series of lower highs. Friday's soft US payrolls (29K vs 90K) pushed price through the lower-highs line to the nfp high at 0.6975, just short of the 50% fib, before a fade into the post-nfp low at 0.6945 set a higher low above Friday's 0.6913. Sunday's open gapped down to 0.6942 but recovered, leaving price retesting the 38.2% fib and ema20 near 0.6949–0.6951, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6945, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the post-nfp low at 0.6945 and ema20 reopens the higher low at 0.6913, with the higher-lows line also at risk
H1 close above the nfp high at 0.6975 clears the 50% fib and brings the 0.7000 round number into view
AU Services PMI (f/c 51.4) was due at 23:00 UTC and is not yet reflected; Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7, 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence broken by Friday's spike; higher low at 0.6913, ranging 0.6942–0.6975.
AUD/USD slid from Tuesday's post-RBA high at 0.7029 to the 0.6903 week low in Thursday's NY session, leaving a clean lower-high line. Friday's soft US payrolls (29K vs 90K) drove a NY-session spike through that line to the 0.6975 nfp high, which stalled below the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday drop. Price then faded back toward the 38.2% level near 0.6951. Monday's small opening gap has already been filled back above the weekly open at 0.6942, and price sits just above the ema20 near 0.6949 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 56, mid-range rather than trending.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6942, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6987, 0.7000
What it said to watch
AU Services PMI (f/c 51.4) at 23:00 UTC, early in the Asia session, could break the 0.6942–0.6975 range
An H1 close back below the weekly open at 0.6942 and the ema20 reopens Thursday's week low at 0.6903
A close above the nfp high at 0.6975 clears the 61.8% retracement and exposes the wed high at 0.6987 and the 0.7000 round number
US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) Monday 14:00 UTC, in the NY session, could rebuild USD demand and reverse Friday's breakout
Lower-highs line broken Friday; higher low above week low.
Tuesday's RBA-hour spike to 0.7029 marked the window high. Bullock's dovish signal then set off a run of lower highs into Thursday's NY-session week low at 0.6903. Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) cleared the lower-highs line, but the move stalled at the 0.6975 NFP high, between the 50% fib at 0.6966 and the 61.8% at 0.6981. The NY fade held the 0.6945 post-NFP low and the week closed back above EMA(20) near 0.6950, with RSI(14) mid-range near 57.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6945, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.6994
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6945 post-nfp low and EMA(20) breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the week low at 0.6903
Clearance of the 0.6975 NFP high and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.6994 Wed high and 0.7000 round number
AU Services/Composite PMI (Sun 23:00 UTC) and weekend geopolitical headlines carry gap risk at the open
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could confirm or reverse the post-NFP USD weakness