Tightening range 0.6957–0.6969: lower highs since the NY high, higher lows off the day low.
AUDUSD recovered from the 0.6942 day low set in the London sell-off and spiked to the 0.6969 NY high on the hawkish FOMC minutes as yields slipped afterwards. Since then it has compressed between lower highs from 0.6969 and higher lows off the day low, with a 0.6964 lower high and RSI(14) flat near 51 early in the Asia session.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.6974 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6957 swing low (near the 50% fib of the NY rebound) exposes the 0.6942 day low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC, minutes away, could break the compression either way
23:32 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 0.69607
Tight band 0.6957–0.6964 below NY high, lower highs since minutes.
London sold off from the 0.6974 London high to a 0.6942 day low as US yields climbed. The NY rebound stalled at the 0.6969 NY high, and price has drifted lower since the hawkish FOMC minutes. Early Asia is pinned between the 0.6957 swing low, at the 50% retrace of the rebound, and a 0.6964 lower high. RSI is neutral and ATR is about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC, about 30 min out, are the next catalyst for this band
An M15 close above the 0.6964 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.6969 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.6957 swing low (50% retrace) exposes 0.6953 (61.8%) and the 0.6942 day low
Waller at 08:30 UTC could reprice US yields into London
23:17 UTC
Flat after rebound, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 46 · price 0.69611
Tight Asian range 0.6957–0.6964 under a descending line from the NY high.
Early Asia session, price is coiling inside a 0.6957–0.6964 Asian range. Since the hawkish FOMC Minutes it has printed lower highs below the NY high at 0.6969, capping the rebound from the London low at 0.6942. RSI(14) near 46 with price sitting on flat EMAs, and the Asian low aligns with the 50% fib of the London low–NY high recovery.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asian low at 0.6957 breaks the 50% fib and exposes the London low at 0.6942
Close above the Asian high at 0.6964 and the descending trendline reopens the NY high at 0.6969
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~45 min, no forecast) could resolve the Asian range
23:03 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalling with lower highs · RSI 45 · price 0.69606
Rising lows off 0.6942, capped below 0.6969; compressing 0.6957–0.6964 early Asia.
The NY rebound from the 0.6942 day low was rejected at 0.6969, the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-NY drop, around the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Lower highs since then have squeezed price between the 0.6957 swing low and the 50% fib at 0.6963 in early Asia, with rising support from the day low still intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69632, 0.69691, 0.69839
What it said to watch
Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~1h) could break the current compression either way
M15 close below the 0.6957 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 0.6942 day low
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6969 opens the 0.6984 prior high
Hold above the 50% fib at 0.6963 would ease the lower-high sequence
22:47 UTC
Sideways, NY rebound stalled · RSI 50 · price 0.6963
Coil between 0.6957 swing low and 0.6969 ny high, lower highs since the minutes.
AUD bled from the 0.6984 asian high through London to a 0.6942 day low as US yields surged. NY then recovered to the 0.6969 ny high before the hawkish FOMC minutes capped it. Since then price has coiled between 0.6957 and 0.6969 into the Asia session, with the swing low sitting near the 50% retrace, RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) around 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6974 london high in view
Failure to hold the 0.6957 swing low (50% retrace) exposes the 0.6942 day low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~75 min, no forecast) could break the current coil
Asian high at 0.6984 aligns with the 0.6985 cap flagged in the digest
Tight range 0.6957–0.6969 below the NY high, holding above the 50% retrace.
London sold AUD down to a 0.6942 day low as yields lifted the USD. The NY rebound capped at the 0.6969 NY high, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes drew little follow-through. Early Asia dipped to a 0.6957 rollover low, near the 50% retrace of the day low to NY high move. Price is now back at 0.6964, mid-range, with no setup in play.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high breaks the range and brings the 0.6974 london high into view
Failure to hold the 0.6957 rollover low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 0.6953, then the 0.6942 day low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~1.5h, no forecast) could break the Asian range either way
22:17 UTC
Recovering from London low, flattening · RSI 56 · price 0.69633
Higher lows off 0.6942, capped below 0.6969 ny high.
The London selloff took AUD out of the Asian range to a 0.6942 session low as yield-driven USD demand built. NY recovered to the 0.6969 ny high, and the post-rollover dip held 0.6957 (rollover low) on the rising trendline. Price now sits at the 50% retracement near 0.6963, RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6969 ny high clears the 61.8% of the London selloff and exposes the 0.6974 london high
Break below the 0.6957 rollover low and the rising trendline puts the 0.6947 higher low and 0.6942 session low back in view
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2h, no forecast) could shift this read
22:04 UTC
Pullback within NY rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 0.69611
Lower highs off 0.6969 NY high, holding 0.6957 rollover low.
London broke below the Asian range and ran to a 0.6942 London low as yields and oil kept USD bid after the FOMC Minutes. NY then rebounded to a 0.6969 NY high. Since then, lower highs have pulled price back to the 0.6957 rollover low, inside the 38.2–50% band of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) flat near 48 as Asia session opens.
Support: 0.69566, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69635, 0.69691, 0.69839
What it said to watch
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2h, no forecast) could materially shift the Asia session read
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 0.6964 and the 0.6969 NY high reopens the 0.6984 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6957 rollover low (NY rebound fib 50% at 0.6956) exposes the 0.6947 higher low and 0.6942 London low
21:47 UTC
Pullback inside a 0.6942–0.6969 range, lower highs since Minutes · RSI 42 · price 0.69574
Day low 0.6942, rebound to ny high 0.6969, now retracing toward fib 50%.
Firm US yields drove a London sell-off to a 0.6942 day low before NY lifted price to the 0.6969 ny high into the FOMC Minutes. With the hawkish Minutes largely priced, a chain of lower highs has since walked price back to the fib 50% of that rebound near 0.6956 in thin post-NY trade. The london high at 0.6974 remains intact above.
Support: 0.69558, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 50% at 0.6956 exposes the 0.6942 day low
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.6962 and the 0.6969 ny high breaks the post-Minutes pullback
A move through the 0.6974 london high would reclaim the London range
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in early Asia
Lower high at 0.6969 under Asian high; NY rebound retracing toward 50% fib.
London-into-NY selling set a 0.6942 session low before NY rebounded to 0.6969, a lower high well under the 0.6984 Asian high, and the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes drew a fade rather than follow-through as USD stayed firm. Price has slipped through the late NY base at 0.6960 in thin rollover trade and now sits at the 50% fib of the NY rebound, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69558, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69691, 0.69839
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.6956 exposes the 0.6947 higher low and the 0.6942 session low
M15 close back above the late NY base at 0.6960 and then the 0.6969 NY high would undo the lower-high read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC in Asia session could move this read; the 0.6984 Asian high caps the day's range
Lower highs below 0.6969 ny high after NY retraced the London leg; now pressing the late ny low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6966 and ran to a 0.6942 day low as firm US yields lifted the USD. NY retraced to the 0.6969 ny high just above the 61.8% fib, but the FOMC Minutes brought no follow-through. Lower highs since then have taken price back to the 0.6960 late ny low.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6958, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6960 late ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 38.2% fib at 0.6958, then the 0.6942 day low
Close above the 0.6969 ny high invalidates the fade read and brings the 0.6974 london high and 0.6984 asian high into view
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could move the Asian range
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC Thu and US 10y yield direction remain the USD-side drivers
21:05 UTC
Down on the day, NY recovery fading · RSI 41 · price 0.69612
Lower highs below 0.6969 since minutes.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6966 and extended to a 0.6942 session low on firm US yields. NY recovered to a 0.6969 ny high, then saw rejection there after the hawkish-but-priced FOMC Minutes. Price has since slid under a lower-highs trendline and is grinding on the 0.6960 late ny low into the Asia open, with the Asian low now acting as resistance and price around the 38.2% of the NY recovery fib.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6969, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6960 late ny low opens the 0.6947 higher low and 0.6942 session low
Close back above the lower-highs trendline and 0.6966 asian low, then 0.6969 ny high, negates the fade; 0.6974 london high next
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (~3h) could jolt the thin Asia session
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could reset the read
Lower highs below 0.6969 since 17:00 UTC; holding the 0.6960 area late NY.
AUDUSD hit its day low at 0.6942 early in NY, then recovered to 0.6969, the pre-FOMC high, before the Minutes. The Minutes signalled another hike, and US yields faded afterwards. Since then each bounce has topped out lower beneath 0.6969, and late in the NY session price is pressing the 0.6960 late-NY low, about 38.2% back into the 0.6942–0.6969 recovery.
Support: 0.6960, 0.69565, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6960 late-NY low exposes the 0.6957 swing low and the 50% fib near 0.6956
Close above the 0.6969 pre-FOMC high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6974 London high back in view, with the 0.6984 Asian high beyond
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~3h) could shift the read in early Asia
Lower high at 0.6969 after 0.6942 day low; compressing just above 0.6960.
Asia and London sold AUD from the 0.6984 Asia high to a 0.6942 day low as 24-year-high US yields lifted the USD. The NY rebound met rejection at the 0.6969 ny high, just above the 61.8% retrace of the Asia high–day low drop. FOMC Minutes added little range; late NY has printed lower highs into the 0.6960 late ny low, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 0.6960, 0.69565, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6960 late ny low exposes the 0.6956 ny swing low, then the 0.6942 day low
Close above the 0.6969 ny high and 61.8% retrace invalidates the lower-high read and puts the 0.6974 london high in view
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC in the Asia session could break the late-NY compression
20:17 UTC
Rebound from day low stalling, mild downward drift · RSI 46 · price 0.69616
Lower highs below 0.6969 after recovery from 0.6942 low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6966 and ran to a 0.6942 day low by 12:15 UTC. NY recovered to a 0.6969 NY high, below the 0.6974 London high, then faded through the FOMC Minutes into lower highs. Late NY is drifting toward 0.6960, just above the 0.6958 swing low and the 38.2% retracement of the NY rebound.
Support: 0.6958, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6958 swing low (38.2% fib) opens the 0.6947 higher low and the 0.6942 day low
Reclaim of the 0.6969 NY high puts the 0.6974 London high back in play; the Asian high at 0.6984 caps above
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC could jolt the thin Asian open
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and the yield reversal after the Minutes are the next USD drivers
Late-NY compression 0.6962–0.6969 after rebound from 0.6942 day low.
London broke the Asian range and slid to a 0.6942 day low in early NY on firm US yields. The rebound peaked at the 0.6969 NY high, the FOMC Minutes drew little follow-through, and price is now drifting just under ema20 at the late-ny low of 0.6962, the 23.6% retracement of the recovery. Overhead, the 0.6974 london high and the 0.6984 asian high cap the recovery.
Support: 0.69617, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6962 late-ny low exposes the 0.6958 swing low at the 38.2% fib; a break there reopens the 0.6942 day low
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high puts the 0.6974 london high and the 0.6984 asian high back in focus
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC could break the late-session compression
Lower highs from 0.6974; tight post-Minutes band pressing 0.6963 range low.
Price slid from the 0.6984 Asia high to a 0.6942 session low around the NY open as US yields jumped, with the 0.6974 London high capping the move. The NY rebound met rejection at the 0.6969 NY high, and price has compressed in a 0.6963–0.6968 band through the FOMC Minutes. It is now leaning on the range low with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6956, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6963 range low opens the 0.6956 fib 50% of the NY rebound
Close above the 0.6969 NY high breaks the band and exposes the 0.6974 London high
Loss of the 0.6942 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Delayed repricing of the FOMC Minutes via the US 10y near 5.35% could shift this read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 UTC, lands in the Asia session
London broke the Asian range low, NY rebound capped at the fib 61.8%, post-Minutes compression.
London sold through the Asian range low to a 0.6942 ny low on the yields-driven USD bid. The NY rebound was rejected at the fib 61.8% retrace near 0.6969 just ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Post-Minutes trade is compressed between that level and the fib 50% at 0.6963, with ATR near 3 pips and RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 0.6963, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6969 (fib 61.8%) opens the 0.6974 london high, with the 0.6984 asian high above
Loss of 0.6963 (fib 50%) exposes the 0.6958 swing low that held the NY higher-low sequence
Break of the 0.6942 ny low would resume the London-session downtrend
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at Thu 00:00 UTC, early in the Asia session, could break the current compression
19:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebound stalling late NY · RSI 54 · price 0.69633
Lower highs from Asia into a 0.6942 day low, higher-low rebound, now a tight 0.6963–0.6969 range under the NY high.
AUDUSD bled from 0.6984 through Asia and London to a 0.6942 day low at 12:15 UTC as US yields pushed toward 5.35%. The rebound into NY stalled at the 0.6969 NY high, and the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes drew little reaction. Price now sits on the range low and a flat EMA20 late in the NY session, with ATR near 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.69632, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 NY high opens the 0.6974 London high
Loss of the 0.6963 range low exposes the 0.6959 swing low and the 50% rebound fib near 0.6956
Break of the 0.6942 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC could shift this read
19:04 UTC
NY recovery stalling below broken Asian low · RSI 58 · price 0.69655
Higher lows from 0.6942 day low, capped at 0.6966-0.6969.
The London drop broke the Asian low near 0.6966 and ran to a 0.6942 day low as the yield-led USD bid built. NY has since retraced to the 78.6% of that drop and is retesting the broken asian low from below. Highs are capped at the 0.6969 ny high, and the FOMC Minutes bar printed only a 4-pip range so far.
Support: 0.69632, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high clears the asian low retest and exposes the 0.6974 london high
Break of the 0.6963 swing low and then the 0.6958 higher low ends the NY higher-low sequence, with the 0.6942 day low next
A delayed FOMC Minutes repricing in US yields could break the 0.6963-0.6969 squeeze
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC could break the 0.6963-0.6969 squeeze
18:47 UTC
Rebound from NY low, stalling post-Minutes · RSI 61 · price 0.69656
Higher lows off 0.6942, capped near 0.6969.
AUDUSD slid from the 0.6984 asian high through London to a 0.6942 ny low as US 10y yields pushed to 2002 highs. Since then it has printed higher lows along a rising trendline. The pair has retraced roughly 55-60% of that drop into the 0.6969 session high, and the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes drew a muted response, leaving price compressed above the 0.6963 swing low.
Support: 0.69632, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 session high opens the 0.6974 london high and the 61.8% fib zone
Loss of the 0.6963 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6958 pullback low, then the 0.6942 ny low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could shift this read
NY higher-low chain off the 0.6942 day low; now stalling under the 0.6969 NY high in a tight post-Minutes range.
Asia faded from 0.6984 and London extended the slide to a 0.6942 day low around 12:15 UTC as US yields pushed higher. NY then rebuilt higher lows (0.6947, 0.6958, 0.6963) and retraced to the 78.6% fib of the London drop, but the FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC have drawn a muted reaction, with price compressing just below the 0.6969 NY high.
Support: 0.69632, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high opens the 0.6974 london high
Loss of the 0.6963 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 0.6958 swing low in play; failure there exposes the 0.6942 day low
Delayed USD/yield reaction to the FOMC Minutes could materially shift this read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC during the Asia session
18:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling at Asian low · RSI 57 · price 0.69655
Higher lows since 0.6942 day low, capped at 0.6969.
London broke the 0.6966 Asian low and ran to a 0.6942 day low as US yields firmed. The NY rebound built a higher-low chain back to that level but stalled at the 0.6969 NY high. The FOMC Minutes bar stayed in a 4-pip range, and price is now sitting on the rising trendline from the day low.
Support: 0.6964, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 0.6964 puts the 0.6958 swing low in play, which lines up with the 38.2% of the NY rebound fib
Loss of the 0.6958 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and reopens the 0.6942 day low
Close above the 0.6969 NY high reclaims the Asian low and opens the 0.6974 London high
Delayed yield reaction to FOMC Minutes (10y near 5.35%) could shift this read into the late NY session
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC is the next Asia session catalyst
18:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the day low · RSI 61 · price 0.69652
Higher-low chain through NY hours, compressing under the NY high.
London sold from the 0.6974 London high to a 0.6942 day low around the NY open as firmer US yields lifted USD. NY has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and retraced roughly 70% of the London drop, with the 0.6969 NY high capping and price coiling near 0.6965 into the FOMC Minutes, RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 0.69632, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes are due at 18:00 UTC, in the bar now forming, and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6963 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the NY higher-low chain, exposing the 0.69585 higher low
An M15 close above the 0.6969 NY high opens a path back toward the 0.6974 London high
Failure at 0.69585 puts the 0.6942 day low back in play
17:47 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher-low chain intact · RSI 61 · price 0.69651
HH/HL rebuild since 12:15 UTC low, capped near Asian low.
London sold AUD from the 0.6974 london high to a 0.6942 session low as US yields pushed to 24-year highs. NY has since built higher lows along rising support, retracing about 70% of the london drop fib. The 0.6969 ny high was rejected back toward the Asian low near 0.6966 into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read; ATR near 4.5 pips is likely to expand
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high clears the 78.6% of the london drop fib and opens the 0.6974 london high, then the 0.6984 asian high
Close below the 0.6958 higher low breaks rising support and reopens the 0.6942 session low
Higher lows off the 0.6942 day low, capped at 0.6969.
AUD/USD slid from the Asian high through London and set a day low at 0.6942 around NY open as US yields pushed to 24-year highs. NY has since printed higher lows at 0.6947 and 0.6959, but the 17:00 UTC spike was rejected at 0.6969, the NY high, near the 61.8% fib retrace of the drop, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.6974 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6959 higher low breaks the NY recovery sequence and reopens the 0.6942 day low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, roughly 30 min out, could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
NY rebound, higher lows off session low · RSI 64 · price 0.69659
Higher lows from 0.6942, retesting broken London low.
London's yield-driven USD bid took the pair from the 0.6974 London high to a 0.6942 session low early in NY. NY has since built higher lows at 0.6947 and 0.6959, and price is now retesting the broken London low near 0.6964, with the NY high at 0.6969 sitting just under the 78.6% fib.
Support: 0.69637, 0.69585, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC land within the hour and could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is only ~5 pips going in.
An M15 close above the 0.6974 London high fully retraces the London sell-off and puts the 0.6984 Asian high next.
A close back below the 0.6959 higher low breaks the NY higher lows trendline and reopens the 0.6942 session low.
Failure to hold the 0.6964 London low turns the retest into a rejection beneath the NY high.
Asian range broken lower, NY rebound capped at the Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6966 and slid to a session low of 0.6942 as USD firmed on 5.35% 10y yields and $100+ Brent. NY rebounded from 0.6942, set a higher low at 0.6947, then retested 0.6966 from below and was rejected. Price is now compressing late in the NY session between the 0.6958 pullback low and 0.6964, sitting just above the 38.2% fib of the NY recovery and just under EMA50.
Support: 0.69585, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, within the hour, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.6966 Asian low reopens the London high at 0.6974, with the Asian high at 0.6984 above that
Failure to hold the 0.6958 pullback low puts the 50% fib near 0.6954 and the 0.6947 NY higher low in play
A break of the 0.6942 session low resumes the London downtrend
Asian range low broken in London; NY higher lows capped under 0.6966.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6966 and extended to a 0.6942 session low early in the NY session as US yields pushed to 24-year highs. NY has since printed a chain of rising lows, but the retest of the broken asian low was rejected at 0.6966 and again at 0.6964. Price sits above EMA20 and below EMA50, with the London high at 0.6974 above.
Support: 0.69585, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.6966 puts price back inside the Asian range and brings the london high at 0.6974 into play
A break of the 0.6958 higher low and the ny rising lows line points back to the 0.6947 ny swing low and the 0.6942 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 75 min away, could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~5 pips heading into the release
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 60 · price 0.69623
London lower highs to 0.6942, then a higher-low rebound now ranging below 0.6966.
London extended the break below the Asian range from the 0.6974 london high down to a 0.6942 session low into the NY open, as rising US yields and pre-Minutes USD demand weighed. The rebound printed a 0.6947 higher low and stalled with a rejection at the 0.6966 ny high. Price is now pinned at the ema50 near 0.6962 above the 0.6957 pullback low, which is the 38.2% rebound fib.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6966 ny high opens the 0.6974 london high
Loss of the 0.6957 pullback low exposes the 0.6947 higher low and the 0.6942 session low
The 0.6984 asian high marks the top of the day's range and is a distant cap
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; NY retesting the broken asia low from below.
London broke the 0.6966 asia low and ran to a 0.6942 day low as USD tracked 5%+ Treasury yields. NY bounced off a 0.6947 higher low and stalled at the broken asia low, near the 50% retrace of the asia high to day low drop. Price is now compressing on a 0.6958 ny shelf with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.6958, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6966 asia low reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 0.6974 london high, with the 0.6984 asia high as range top
Loss of the 0.6958 ny shelf reopens the 0.6947 higher low and the 0.6942 day low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower high 0.6966 under 0.6974; higher low 0.6947 above 0.6942 session low.
Selling from Asia through London took AUDUSD from 0.6984 to a 0.6942 session low as USD firmed on 5.35% 10y yields. NY printed a higher low at 0.6947 and rebounded to 0.6966, the old Asian-range floor, where it met rejection. Price is now consolidating near the 61.8% retrace of the 0.6974 London high to session low leg, holding above the fib 50% at 0.6956 and the EMA20 but below the EMA50.
Support: 0.69565, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6966 ny high opens the 0.6974 london high
Break below the fib 50% at 0.6956 and then the 0.6947 higher low re-exposes the 0.6942 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
15:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective rebound in NY · RSI 54 · price 0.69608
Lower low at 0.6942 session low, higher-low chain since; retesting broken Asian low.
London broke below the Asian range, and the yield-driven USD bid extended the drop to a 0.6942 session low early in NY. The rebound since has built higher lows along rising support but stalled at the 0.6966 rebound high, where the broken Asian low meets the 61.8% of the London selloff. RSI(14) is near 54, with price back above EMA20 but just under EMA50.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6966 rebound high opens the 0.6974 london high, with the 0.6984 asian high beyond
Loss of the 0.6957 higher low and rising support puts the 0.6947 pullback low and the 0.6942 session low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 58 · price 0.69597
Lower highs from London intact; NY printed a higher low at 0.6947 and retraced into the Asian low.
London sold off from the 0.6974 London high to a 0.6942 day low as USD tracked the bond sell-off. NY bounced off a 0.6947 higher low and retested the broken Asian low at 0.6966, where it was rejected. Price is now near the 61.8% level of the London leg fib, above EMA20 but below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 0.6947, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian low at 0.6966 reopens the London high at 0.6974
Break below the 0.6947 higher low exposes the 0.6942 day low and resumes the downtrend
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia and London; higher lows since 0.6942 day low.
London broke the Asian range low and extended to a 0.6942 day low into the NY open as USD tracked higher Treasury yields. NY has since printed higher lows above the ema20 and is pressing the 61.8% fib of the London high-to-low drop and the EMA50 near 0.6962, where the 0.6966 NY high capped the latest push.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6966 NY high and EMA50 opens the path to the 0.6974 london high, with the 0.6984 asian high above
Failure to hold the 0.6957 ema20 and the 0.6947 higher low puts the 0.6942 day low back in play
A break of the higher-low line below 0.6952 hands control back to the London lower-low sequence
15:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 55 · price 0.69609
Lower highs from 0.6984 Asia top; higher-low chain off 0.6942 session low.
London broke the 0.6966 Asian low and pressed to a 0.6942 session low as USD firmed on 10y yields back above 5.30%. NY has built a higher low at 0.6947 along rising support and is now testing the 61.8% fib of the London drop at 0.6963, just under the broken asian low. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6963, 0.6966, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 asian low would leave the London break as a failed extension and put the 0.6974 london high in view
Rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a break of rising support and the 0.6947 higher low reopens the 0.6942 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 52 · price 0.69583
Lower highs from 0.6974; NY higher low at 0.6947.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.6964 and the drop from the 0.6974 London high extended to a 0.6942 session low around the NY open, as USD firmed on 10y yields above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. NY has since printed a higher low at 0.6947 and retraced to the 50% fib of the London drop, capped so far at the 0.6961 NY high.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6964, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6961 NY high opens the 61.8% fib and a retest of the 0.6964 Asian low
Acceptance back above 0.6974 London high invalidates the intraday lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6947 higher low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 0.6942 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce in progress · RSI 47 · price 0.69572
Lower highs from Asia; higher low at 0.6947 above the 0.6942 session low.
London broke below the 0.6966 Asian low and extended to a 0.6942 session low as USD firmed on yields and Middle East risk. NY has since built a higher low at 0.6947 and a bounce high at 0.6959, sitting at the 50% retracement of the London leg with price just back above EMA20.
Support: 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69593, 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6959 bounce high opens the 0.6966 asian low and the 61.8% level of the London leg fib
Loss of the 0.6947 higher low breaks the higher low line and puts the 0.6942 session low back in focus
Reclaiming the 0.6974 london high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; tight 0.6947–0.6956 compression in early NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6966 and extended to a 0.6942 session low around the London-NY transition as USD firmed on yields ahead of FOMC Minutes. The rebound met rejection at the 0.6956 swing high, near the 38.2% fib of the London high-to-low drop, and price is now compressing just under EMA20 with a higher low at 0.6947.
Support: 0.69469, 0.69424, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69556, 0.69637, 0.69743
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; USD tone is tied to the 10y yield around 5.30%
M15 close below the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6930 range floor
Close above the 0.6956 swing high and the lower highs trendline opens the 0.6964 london low (broken support), then the 0.6974 london high
Loss of the 0.6947 higher low ends the current compression
Lower highs from London; NY low 0.6942 then higher low 0.6947.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6966, and NY extended the slide to the 0.6942 session low as USD firmed on yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The bounce met rejection at the 0.6956 ny high, near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg. Price is now coiling between the 0.6947 higher low and that high, pressing the descending highs line near 0.6952.
Support: 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69556, 0.69637, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 ny high and the descending highs line opens the 0.6964 london low
Failure to hold the 0.6947 higher low and the 0.6942 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
0.6974 london high marks the top of the London-NY leg; while below it, the lower-high structure stands
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker, ~4h) could materially shift this read
London broke below the 0.6966 asian low and extended to a 0.6942 session low as USD firmed on 10y yields back above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The early-US rebound stalled at the 0.6956 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace of the London move, keeping the lower-high chain intact with RSI(14) around 35.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6966, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain and opens a retest of the 0.6966 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.6974 london high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low exposes the 0.6930 range floor
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce stalling · RSI 41 · price 0.69518
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; Asian range low broken.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6966 and the move extended from the 0.6974 lower high to a 0.6942 session low, as USD firmed with 10y yields back above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The first-hour NY bounce stalled at the 0.6956 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace of the London leg, with price still under both EMAs and RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.6949, 0.69424, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69556, 0.69637, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 bounce high and the 50% retrace near 0.6958 brings the 0.6964 london low back into view; the 0.6974 lower high caps the sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6949 prior low, then the 0.6942 session low, confirms a fresh lower-low with the 0.6930 range floor next
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; bounce retesting broken 0.6955 area.
A firmer USD, with the 10y back above 5.30%, drove a London break of the 0.6966 Asian range low. Lower highs then ran from the 0.6974 london high to a 0.6942 session low around the NY open. The early-NY bounce is retesting the 0.6955 lower high at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) recovering to ~42 after a shallow bullish divergence at the low.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6942, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6964, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 lower high and the 0.6964 london low breaks the lower-high chain
Slip back below the 0.6949 swing low re-exposes the 0.6942 session low; a break there opens the 0.6930 range floor
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read; US 10y vs 5.30% is the driver
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off session low · RSI 36 · price 0.69519
Lower highs since London; Asian range low broken, retracing toward last lower high.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6966 and printed lower highs into a 0.6942 session low in the first hour of NY, as a firm USD and 10y yields back above 5.30% weighed. The current bounce is approaching the 0.6955 lower high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.6974–0.6942 leg.
Support: 0.6949, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69548, 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 0.6966 asian low
Loss of the 0.6949 swing low and then the 0.6942 session low extends the downtrend
Price back above the 0.6974 london high invalidates the London downtrend read
FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT) and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; LH/LL chain into NY open.
AUD/USD broke the Asian low at 0.6966 during London and has stepped lower from the 0.6974 swing high into the first hour of NY, printing a session low at 0.6942 as US 10y yields back above 5.30% firmed the USD. The last bounce stalled at the 0.6955 lower high, near the 38.2% of the drop fib. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR(14) is about 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.69424, 0.6923
Resistance: 0.69548, 0.6966, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the LH/LL chain
Recovery back above the 0.6966 Asian low would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low exposes the 0.6923 july low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~5h) and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 28 · price 0.69495
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 0.6974, lower low at 0.6949.
London broke below the Asian range and the 0.6964 london low, then put in a lower high at the 0.6974 london high. A firmer USD on 10y yields above 5.30% pressed the pair to a 0.6949 session low, and early NY bars are capped at a 0.6955 minor high with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6964, 0.6974
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6949 session low opens the 0.6930 range floor
M15 close back above the 0.6964 london low (near the 61.8% of the london selloff fib) neutralises the breakdown
Close above the 0.6974 london high breaks the descending highs line
FOMC Minutes and the US 10y auction later today could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off session low · RSI 31 · price 0.69543
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London.
London broke the 0.6966 Asian low and pushed to a 0.6949 session low into the NY open. The descending trendline from the 0.6984 Asian high through the 0.6974 lower high is intact, with yields above 5.30% keeping USD firm ahead of the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) near 31 as price lifts slightly off 0.6950.
Support: 0.69486, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 Asian low, near the fib 50%, would neutralise the range break
Break of the 0.6974 lower high and descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6949 session low puts the 0.6930 range floor in view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 20 · price 0.69492
Lower highs since Asia; Asian range low broken in London.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6966 after the 0.6974 London high failed to clear the lower-highs trendline. The drop extended to a 0.6949 session low as a firmer USD and 10y yields back above 5.30% weighed ahead of the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) near 20 is oversold, and the last bar is stalling at the low.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6930, 0.6923
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6966, 0.6974
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6949 session low exposes the 0.6930 range floor and the 0.6923 july low
A reclaim of the 0.6955 breakdown pivot puts the 50–61.8% band of the london leg fib (0.6962–0.6965) in view
M15 close back above the 0.6966 asian low negates the range break
A break of the lower-highs trendline above the 0.6974 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside in London.
Lower highs run from yesterday's 0.6990 NY high through the 0.6984 Asian high and the 0.6974 London high. London broke the Asian range low near 0.6966 and the London leg extended to a 0.6955 session low as USD firmed on 10y yields back above 5.30%. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold, and the 0.6950 round number sits just below.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6950, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69637, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6964 prior low would show the Asian range break failing
A break above the 0.6974 london high would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6930 range low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; London printing a fresh session low.
London broke the Asian low near 0.6966, bounced to a lower high at 0.6974, then extended to a fresh session low at 0.6956. A firmer USD and US 10y yields above 5.30% weighed ahead of the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) sits near 28 with price stalling at the low, and the 38.2–50% retrace of the London leg overlaps the 0.6964–0.6966 Asian low area.
Support: 0.6956, 0.6950, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 Asian low reclaims the broken range and neutralises the break
Close above the 0.6974 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline from the 0.6984 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6956 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6930 range floor
NY open in ~2h, then FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction, could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through London · RSI 29 · price 0.69574
Asian range low broken; lower high at 0.6974, fresh session low at 0.6957.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6966. The pair bounced to a lower high at 0.6974 and has since extended to a fresh session low at 0.6957, with RSI(14) near 29 and price below both EMAs. A firmer USD, with 10y yields above 5.30% into tonight's FOMC Minutes, frames the slide; the trendline off the asia high at 0.6984 caps the lower-highs sequence.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6950, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the broken low at 0.6964 would signal the break is losing traction
Close above the 0.6974 lower high invalidates the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the session low and the 0.6950 round number exposes the 0.6930 range floor
NY open ahead and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6984; Asian range broken lower mid-London.
London broke the 0.6966 Asian low. After a lower high at the 0.6974 London high it pressed to a fresh session low at 0.6962, as a firmer USD and US yields near 5.30% weighed ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The lower-highs line from the 0.6984 Asian high still caps price, and RSI(14) at 35 is not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6974, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Break of the 0.6974 London high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6962 session low leaves the 0.6930 range floor as the next reference
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.69653
Lower highs from Asian high; London low under retest.
Lower highs since the 0.6984 Asian high, with the USD firmer as 10y yields hold above 5.30% ahead of FOMC Minutes. London dipped through the 0.6966 Asian low to a 0.6964 London low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.6974 London high near the 50% fib. Price is now retesting the London low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.69637, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69743, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6964 london low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 0.6950 round number next
Reclaim of the 0.6966 asian low followed by a close above the 0.6974 london high breaks the lower highs trendline
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, London sweep of Asian low then pullback.
Lower highs from the 0.6984 Asian high; London swept the Asian low to a 0.6964 session low, then the bounce was rejected at 0.6974 (london high), the 50% retrace. Mid-London, price is back near the lows, RSI(14) ~45, as a firmer USD and 5.3% US 10y yields weigh ahead of FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.69637
Resistance: 0.69743, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6964 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above 0.6974 london high breaks the lower-highs line and brings 0.6984 asian high back into view
0.6990 prior high caps the window; reclaiming it negates the lower-highs read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 0.69895; London bounce capped at 38.2% fib.
Firmer US yields lifted USD. Price has printed lower highs since yesterday's 0.69895 prior high, with Asia breaking down from the 0.69839 asian high and London extending to a 0.69637 london low. The London bounce saw rejection at the 0.69743 london high, at the 38.2% fib and descending trendline, and price is back near the lows.
Support: 0.69637, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69743, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69637 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6960 round number
M15 close above the 0.69743 london high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 0.69839 asian high
Reclaim of the 0.69895 prior high would void the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.69708
Lower highs from 0.6990; Asian low swept at London open, rebound capped at 0.6974.
London open swept the Asian low at 0.6966 down to 0.6964. The rebound was rejected at 0.6974, near the 50% retracement of the Asian high-to-London low drop. Lower highs from the 0.6990 prior high remain intact as firm US yields keep USD supported into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69637
Resistance: 0.69743, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6974 London high and the lower-high trendline would weaken the downtrend read and opens a path to the 0.6984 Asian high.
Failure to hold the 0.6964 London low confirms a fresh lower low below the Asian low.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR near 3.7 pips points to compressed ranges ahead of the release.
09:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London bounce in progress · RSI 56 · price 0.69717
Lower highs from Asian high; false break of Asian low at London open.
AUD slid during the Asia session from the 0.6984 Asian high as weak AiG and Westpac data and firmer US yields weighed. London open dipped through the 0.6966 Asian low to a 0.6964 London low, then reclaimed it. The bounce is stalling just under the 50% fib at 0.6974, and the lower-high sequence stays intact below there.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6964
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6966 Asian low negates the false break; losing the 0.6964 London low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.6974 50% fib opens a retest of the 0.6984 Asian high
0.6990 prior high marks the top of the 24h range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 53 · price 0.69707
Lower highs through Asia; London swept below the Asian low and reclaimed it.
Asia ground lower from the 0.6984 Asian high in a chain of lower highs as firmer US yields lifted USD. London open swept below the 0.6966 Asian low to a 0.6964 London low before reclaiming it, and price now presses the descending trendline near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop, with the 0.6973 swing high overhead.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69637
Resistance: 0.69728, 0.69839
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.6984 Asian high
A move back below the 0.6966 Asian low and the 0.6964 London low resumes the lower-low chain
Rejection at the descending trendline keeps the Asia drop structure intact
FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT) and the US 10y auction later today could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum soft but not stretched · RSI 37 · price 0.69658
Lower highs since the Asian high; London broke below the Asian range.
Price has made lower highs off the 0.6984 Asian high, and the London open broke the Asian range low to print a session low at 0.6964, RSI(14) near 37. AUD stays heavy on weak domestic data and a firmer USD into the FOMC Minutes, with the 0.6990 prior high from yesterday's session well overhead.
Support: 0.69637, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69728, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 lower high breaks the descending highs line and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6964 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6950 round number
Recovery through the 0.6984 Asian high would put the 0.6990 prior high back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range low broken at London open.
AUD/USD has printed steady lower highs off the 0.6984 Asian high along a descending trendline. London open broke the Asian range low and the prior-day low to a 0.6964 London low, with RSI(14) near 38. A firmer USD into tonight's FOMC Minutes and soft AU data have supply capping rallies at the 0.6972–0.6973 lower highs.
Support: 0.69637, 0.6923
Resistance: 0.69725, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 lower highs and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6964 London low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.6923 July low the next marked level
Reclaim of the 0.6984 Asian high and 0.6990 prior high would flip the intraday structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, basing at 0.6966.
Asia ground lower in a lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.6984 Asian high. The London open dipped a pip under the 0.6966 session low, also yesterday's London low, and stalled. Price is pinned just under the descending trendline near 0.6970 with ATR(14) about 3 pips, a compressed tape ahead of tonight's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6923
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 London high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6923 July low
Recovery through the 0.6984 Asian high reopens the 0.6990 prior high from yesterday's NY open
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction today could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence through Asia, testing Asian low at London open.
AUD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high at 0.6984, with soft domestic data and a firm USD into FOMC Minutes. London open finds price pressing the asian low at 0.6966 with RSI(14) near 35, after the last bounce stalled at the 0.6973 lower high, which is also the 38.2% of the Asian drop fib.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6964
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 0.6964 prior low
Close above the 0.6973 lower high breaks the falling highs trendline and reopens the 0.6984 asian high, with the 0.6990 prior high from yesterday's NY session above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high, basing at 0.6966–0.6964.
Asia session faded from the 0.6984 asian high to a 0.6966 asian low as the USD firmed with yields into the FOMC Minutes, printing a chain of lower highs. At London open the bounce was rejected at the fib 38.2 near 0.6973, with price holding just above the asian low and Tuesday's 0.6964 prior low.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6964
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6976, 0.6984
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 fib 38.2 and the lower highs trendline breaks the Asian downswing structure, with the 0.6976 swing high next
Failure to hold the 0.6966 asian low and 0.6964 prior low confirms a fresh lower-low
Retest of the 0.6984 asian high puts the 0.6985 cap flagged in the digest back in focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; pre-London base forming above 0.6966.
Asia session stepped down from the 0.6984 asian high to a 0.6966 asian low. That gave back the London-NY push toward the 0.6990 prior high, with AUD capped under 0.7000 into the FOMC Minutes. The 06:30 bounce met rejection at 0.6973, a lower high at the 38.2% fib of the Asian selloff. Price is just under EMA20 and RSI(14) sits near 41 heading into London open.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69615
Resistance: 0.69728, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6966 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6962 prior low
M15 close above the 0.6973 lower high (38.2% fib) undercuts the downtrend read; the 0.6984 asian high sits above
Recovery through the 0.6990 prior high would put the 0.7000 handle back in view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, steady grind lower through Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.69673
Lower highs from 0.6984 Asian high, trading at session lows into London open.
Asia session has ground lower in a chain of lower highs from the 0.6984 asian high. Price has lost the 0.6971 asia shelf and printed a 0.6966 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet stretched. AUD is softening as US yields turn back up into tonight's FOMC Minutes, leaving yesterday's 0.6990 prior high well above.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6971, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6971 asia shelf and the descending line would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low exposes the 0.6961 24h low
London open in under an hour typically tests or resets the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; a USD drop would bring the 0.6984 asian high and 0.6990 prior high back into play
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, price near session low.
Asia session has ground lower from the 0.6984 asian high in a steady lower-high chain under a descending trendline, with price sitting just above the 0.6967 session low ahead of London open and RSI(14) near 36. The slide fits the digest: AUD is slipping on fading RBA hike odds and a firmer USD into today's FOMC Minutes, about 15 pips off yesterday's 0.6990 prior high from the NY session.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6974 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6967 session low exposes the 0.6961 prior-day low
Reclaiming the 0.6984 asian high is needed before the 0.6990 prior high comes back into play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, below Tuesday's range.
Asia session has printed a lower-high/lower-low sequence from the 0.6984 Asian high to a 0.6967 session low as the USD firmed on yields near 2002 highs. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, and the last two bars are lifting slightly off the low. London open is just over an hour away, and the 0.6961 prior low from Tuesday's London session is the next reference below.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6967 session low exposes the 0.6961 prior low
Recovery through the 0.6984 Asian high reopens the 0.6990 prior high from Tuesday's NY session
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 0.69675
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high, trading below the broken base.
The Asia session has ground lower from the 0.6984 Asia high in a chain of lower highs, slipping through the 0.6971 broken base to 0.6968 with RSI(14) near 29. The softness tracks fading RBA hike bets and a firmer USD on yields. Price now sits just above the 0.6961 prior low with London open about 90 minutes out.
Support: 0.69613, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6971, 0.69839
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6961 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6950 round number
An M15 close back above the 0.6971 broken base and the descending trendline would neutralise the Asia downtrend read
Reclaiming the 0.6984 Asia high during London would reverse the session structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows below the NY range.
Asia session has printed lower highs from the 0.6984 asia high and slipped through the 0.6974 NY range floor to 0.6968 as USD firmed with yields. RSI(14) sits near 29 and ATR is only ~2.7 pips, with the 0.6967 swing low from yesterday's London session the next reference.
Support: 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69745, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6974 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6967 swing low exposes the 24h low at 0.6961
Recovery above the 0.6984 asia high negates the intraday downtrend read; the 24h high at 0.6990 is the range top
London open in under 2h typically expands the sub-3-pip ATR
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below Tuesday's NY floor.
The Asia selloff from the 0.6984 Asia high has left a clean chain of lower highs and broken below Tuesday's NY floor near 0.6974. Price sits at 0.6969 late in the Asia session with RSI(14) near 31, as the dollar retakes DXY 102.00 on firmer yields. The next swing low is 0.6967, then the Tuesday low at 0.6961.
Support: 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69745, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6967 swing low exposes the Tuesday low at 0.6961
Reclaim of the 0.6984 Asia high, then the 0.6990 Tuesday high, neutralises the Asia selloff
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6990; overnight 0.6977–0.6984 range broken lower in Asia.
The Asia session slid from the 0.6984 asia high through the 0.6974 prior NY low to a 0.6970 session low as USD firmed on yields. Price sits on the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's 0.6961–0.6990 rally, with RSI(14) near 32 and a descending trendline from the 0.6990 prior high capping each bounce.
Support: 0.69698, 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6970 session low exposes the 0.6967 prior lows and the 0.6961 swing low
Recovery above the 0.6974 prior NY low would neutralise the Asia range break
Break of the descending trendline and the 0.6984 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence toward the 0.6990 prior high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia below the NY range.
Late Asia session: the pair broke below Tuesday's 0.6980–0.6987 NY range after rejecting the 0.6984 Asia high, printing lower highs and a fresh session low at 0.6970 as USD firmed on rising yields. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched, and the trendline from the Asia high caps at the 0.6975 lower high, with the 0.69665 pivot low next below.
Support: 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69745, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high and trendline breaks the Asian lower-high chain
Loss of the 0.69665 pivot low exposes Tuesday's 0.6961 prior low from the London open
Recovery through the 0.6984 Asia high puts the 0.69895 prior high back in focus
London open in ~2.5h is likely to test the Asian range extremes
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6990 session high; Asia broke below Tuesday's NY low and is holding a tight 0.6971–0.6974 band.
Asia session sold off from the 0.6984 asia high and broke through Tuesday's 0.6974 ny low as DXY reclaimed 102.00 on firmer yields. Price is now compressing above the 0.6971 asia low, on the 61.8% fib of Tuesday's rally from the 0.6961 day low to the 0.6990 session high. The lower-highs trendline sits near 0.6983 overhead.
Support: 0.69711, 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6971 asia low exposes the 0.6967 swing low, then the 0.6961 day low
Reclaim of the 0.6974 ny low invalidates the break read; the lower-highs trendline and asia high near 0.6983–0.6984 sit above
London open in ~3h is the first test of the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs since Tuesday's NY peak; Asia basing near 61.8% retrace.
Asia session gave back Tuesday's NY gains. A 01:45 UTC drop off the 0.6984 swing high cut through the 0.6974 ny low as USD firmed on yields. Price is now holding the 0.6971 asian low at the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally, under a lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.6971, 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6971 asian low exposes the 0.6967 swing low and the 0.6961 tuesday low
Reclaiming the 0.6974 ny low and then 0.6984 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
0.6990 tuesday high caps the 24h range
London open in about an hour typically tests the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling at Asia low · RSI 36 · price 0.69722
Lower highs from 0.6984 Asia high, flat base at 0.6971 after overnight range break.
Asia session dropped out of the overnight 0.6978–0.6983 range from the 0.6984 Asia high as USD firmed on geopolitical risk and firmer yields. Price is basing at the 0.6971 Asia low below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 36, with the 0.6976 lower high and the 38.2% fib capping rebounds.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 0.6984 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.6971 Asia low exposes the 0.6967 London low and the 0.6961 prior low
Prior high at 0.6990 caps the window; acceptance above it would void the downtrend read
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6989; NY low broken in Asia, pressing Asian low.
Renewed USD dip-buying in the Asia session, on Iran headlines and firmer yields, rejected AUD/USD at a 0.6984 Asian high, the third lower high on the lower-high line. Price then broke the 0.6974 NY low and is pressing the 0.6971 Asian low, the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 0.6961–0.6989 leg. RSI(14) is at 33, soft but not oversold, and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.6971, 0.69667, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6971 asian low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.6967 london low
Loss of the london low opens the 0.6961 prior low, the base of yesterday's rally
M15 close back above the 0.6974 ny low neutralises the break; lower-high line near 0.6983 sits above
Clearance of the 0.6984 asian high and 0.6989 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since prior high · RSI 40 · price 0.69741
Asia broke below the overnight shelf; lower highs and lower lows.
Mid-Asia session, price broke the 0.6977 broken shelf that held through the overnight lull as USD firmed on yields and geopolitics, printing a 0.6971 asian low. It now trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, under a descending trendline running off the 0.6990 prior high through 0.6987 and the 0.6984 asian high.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6977 broken shelf (38.2% fib) negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6971 asian low exposes the 0.6967 swing low, then the 0.6961 prior low
Asian high 0.6984 sits on the descending trendline; a close above it breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.6990 prior high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia break below overnight range floor, sitting on 61.8% fib.
Asia session broke below the 0.6974 range floor that held through yesterday's NY session, extending a lower-high sequence from the 0.6990 prior high that reversed part of the softer-USD rally. Price is parked at the 61.8% fib of the 0.6961–0.6990 move, with the session low at 0.6971 and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.69711, 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6974 range floor would mark the Asia break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6971 session low exposes the 0.6967 swing low and 0.6961 prior low
Close above the lower-high trendline near 0.6983 (last lower high 0.6984) breaks the descending sequence
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 34 · price 0.69721
Asian range broken lower, testing 61.8% fib.
The Asia session has broken below the Asian low at 0.6977 and is sitting on 0.6972, the fib 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 0.6961 day low to the 0.6990 day high. Lower highs at 0.6990, 0.6987 and the 0.6984 Asian high form a descending trendline. RSI(14) is at 34, soft but not oversold, ahead of tonight's Fed minutes.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6968, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6977 asian low would turn the break into a false break and put price back in the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.6972 fib 61.8% exposes the 0.6968 london base, then the 0.6961 day low
Close above the 0.6984 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.6990 day high is the next cap
FOMC September minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken, lower-high sequence from prior-day high.
Mid-Asia session, price slipped out of the overnight range low at 0.6977 and stalled at a 0.6972 session low, the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 0.6961–0.6990 rally. Lower highs from the 0.6990 prior high are still in place, RSI(14) at 39, as the USD softness fades ahead of tonight's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.69721, 0.6967, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69767, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6977 range low negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low exposes the 0.6967 swing low and 0.6961 prior low
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.6984 session high reopens the 0.6990 prior high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 38 · price 0.69738
Asian range broken lower, session low being tested.
Asia session slipped out of its 0.6977–0.6984 range, printing a session low at 0.6972 after a lower high under the 0.6990 day high. RSI(14) is near 38 with ATR(14) about 2.6 pips, and the softer-USD push toward 0.70 is stalling ahead of the Fed minutes.
Support: 0.69723, 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69767, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6977 asian low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low opens the 0.6967 london low, then the 0.6961 24h low
Close above the lower-high trendline near the 0.6984 asian high invalidates the pullback read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; 0.6990 day high is the upside reference
02:03 UTC
Range after NY rally, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.6978
Asian range 0.69767–0.69839, lower highs under prior high.
Mid-Asia session is contained in a tight 0.69767–0.69839 range below the 0.69895 prior high set early in NY. The 01:30 UTC push to the Asian high was rejected back to the range floor, where price sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.69613–0.69895 rally (RSI(14) 43). Lower highs from 0.69868 mark the trendline as USD softness stalls ahead of the Fed minutes.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742, 0.69721
Resistance: 0.69839, 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69767 asian low exposes the 0.69742 NY swing low and the 50% fib near 0.6975
Failure to hold the swing low puts the fib 61.8 at 0.69721 in play
M15 close above the 0.69839 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline toward 0.69868 and the 0.69895 prior high
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range below prior high, higher lows intact.
The 0.6961–0.6990 rally on a softer USD and lower yields retraced 54% to the 0.6974 swing low and held. Asia session is now compressed in a 0.6977–0.6984 range under the prior high, with higher lows on the rising trendline. Price is hugging EMA50, RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is only ~2.4 pips.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69839, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6984 asian high reopens the 0.6990 prior high and the 0.70 psych handle
Break of the 0.6977 asian low and the 0.6974 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 0.6961 prior low in focus
FOMC Minutes later in the NY session (18:00 UTC) are the main catalyst; the current compressed range is unlikely to survive the release
Range 0.6974–0.6990 since NY open; tight Asian range 0.6977–0.6983.
The Asia session is holding a tight band just under yesterday's NY-open session high at 0.6990. That high capped a 28-pip London-NY rally off the 0.6961 low as yields eased and the USD softened. Dips held the 0.6974 swing low and today's 0.6977 asian low, forming a higher-low line, with the ny late high at 0.6987 just overhead. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is compressed at ~2.4 pips.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6987 ny late high and 0.6990 session high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
Break below the 0.6977 asian low and the 0.6974 swing low breaks the higher-low line and the 50% fib of the rally
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC are the key catalyst for a 0.70 test or rejection
Lower highs since late NY, tight Asia session range.
The London-NY rally to the 0.69895 day high has faded into a tight Asia session range between the 0.69767 session low and the 0.69833 session high, with lower highs printing since late NY. Price is holding near the 50% fib of that leg, above the 0.69742 swing low. RSI(14) sits neutral near 45, and price is fractionally below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69833, 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69767 session low exposes the 0.69742 swing low and the 61.8% fib
Break of the lower highs line and the 0.69868 swing high reopens the 0.69895 day high and the 0.6985–0.70 cap zone
Holding inside 0.69767–0.69833 keeps the Asia session range intact, with no setup in play
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC are the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Early Asia session is drifting at 0.6978 near the asian low, inside a 0.6977–0.6983 Asian range and below EMA20/50. The short-covering leg from the London low (0.6961) capped at the ny high of 0.6990, and the 0.6987 lower high set the descending trendline. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR around 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69833, 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.6977 opens the ny low at 0.6974, near the 50% fib
Failure to hold 0.6974 shifts focus to the 61.8% fib at 0.6972 and the london low at 0.6961
Close above the asian high at 0.6983 and the descending trendline brings the 0.6987 lower high and 0.6990 ny high back into view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the main catalyst that could reshape this range
Lower highs since day high; testing 38.2% fib in Asia.
The London rally off the 0.6961 day low, helped by softer yields and a weaker USD, topped at the 0.6990 day high early in NY. Since then price has carved lower highs and is slipping in the early Asia session, now sitting on the 38.2% fib near 0.6979 just above the 0.6977 Asia low. RSI(14) at 43 and ATR around 2.5 pips point to a quiet, compressed tape below the 0.6983 Asia high.
Support: 0.69767, 0.69742, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69833, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.6977 Asia low exposes the 0.6974 swing low near the 50% fib
Close back above the 0.6983 Asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.6990 day high and the 0.70 round number
Loss of the 0.6974 swing low puts the 0.6961 day low back in play
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Range after rally, momentum faded · RSI 46 · price 0.69801
Lower highs off 0.6990 day high, Asian range 0.6978–0.6983.
Tuesday's rally off the 0.6961 low, helped by softer Treasury yields, topped at the 0.6990 day high in the NY session. It has since printed a lower high at 0.6987, and the Asia session is compressing in a tight 0.6978–0.6983 range just under the 0.6985 cap flagged in the digest. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of that rally, just below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR(14) about 2 pips. No setup is in play.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69833, 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 asian low opens the ny swing low at 0.6974, near the 50% fib
Loss of 0.6974 puts the london low at 0.6966 back in focus
Break above the 0.6983 asian high and the 0.6987 lower high revisits the 0.6990 day high and the 0.70 handle
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high under 0.6990 session high; tight 0.6978–0.6987 range into early Asia.
London broke above Tuesday's Asian range off the 0.6961 Asian low and extended to a 0.6990 session high into the NY open as yields and the USD eased. NY then printed a lower high at 0.6987, and price has compressed above a 0.6978 range floor (38.2% fib) into early Asia, with the 0.6974 NY low the deeper pullback. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is around 2 pips, a quiet tape ahead of the FOMC minutes.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6974, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6978 range floor (38.2% fib) exposes the 0.6974 NY low near the 50% retracement
Break of the 0.6974 NY low puts the 0.6961 Asian low back in focus
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high below day high, sitting on 50% retrace.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.6976 and NY extended to a 0.6990 day high as USD and yields eased. Rejection there and a lower high at 0.6987 have since capped price. Early Asia now sits on the 0.6978 session low, the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 2 pips in thin trade.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 session low exposes the 0.6974 ny pullback low; failure there opens the 0.6967 london low
Close above the 0.6987 lower high reopens the 0.6990 day high and the 0.7000 round number
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read