AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:32 UTC
Neutral intraday, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 49 · price 0.69593
Rising lows from 0.6951 pressing a 0.6962 session high; range compressing in early Asia.
London broke below the Asian range to a 0.6932 low. The NY session then snapped back to the 0.6973 prior high as USD faded on Iran de-escalation, before giving most of it back to a 0.6944 NY low. Since then, early Asia trade has printed higher lows along a rising support line from the 0.6951 swing low, near the 50% of the NY rally fib, but the 0.6962 session high still caps price and ATR has shrunk to roughly 2–3 pips.
Support: 0.69555, 0.69514, 0.69438
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 session high breaks the cap and puts the 0.6973 prior high back in view
Loss of the rising support line and the 0.6955 rollover low exposes the 0.6951 swing low near the 50% fib
A break of the 0.6951 swing low reopens the 0.6944 NY low
AI/equity risk tone remains the main AUD driver; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset the range
23:17 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 48 · price 0.69585
Higher lows beneath a 0.6962 cap, tight early-Asia band.
The NY session lifted AUDUSD off the 0.6932 London low to a 0.6973 day high, then gave back most of the move to the 0.6944 NY low. Risk-off in equities and Fed hike pricing kept AUD heavy. Since then, rising lows (0.6944, the 0.6951 swing low, the 0.6955 rollover low) have squeezed price into a 0.6955–0.6962 band under the late NY high, near the 38.2% of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 0.69553, 0.69514, 0.69438
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 late NY high opens the 0.6973 day high
Loss of the 0.6955 rollover low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 0.6951 swing low, then the 0.6944 NY low, below the 61.8% of the NY rally
Equity/AI risk tone and US yields remain the main AUD driver in thin Asia trade
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations, Fri 14:00 UTC, could shift the read later in the day
23:03 UTC
Rebounding from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 0.69585
Higher lows since 0.6944, tight range under 0.6962.
London sold to a 0.6932 session low on the hawkish Fed minutes and firm US yields. NY spiked to a 0.6973 high as DXY faded on Trump's Iran comments, then reversed to the 0.6944 NY low. Since then lows have stepped higher, and early Asia is compressing between the 0.6955 Asian low and a 0.6962 range top that sits on the 61.8% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 0.69553, 0.69514, 0.69438
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 range top / 61.8% opens the 0.6973 NY high
Break of the 0.6955 Asian low exposes the 0.6951 swing low, then the 0.6944 NY low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US yield moves remain the swing driver until Friday's UoM release at 14:00 UTC
22:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, rising lows since NY reversal · RSI 59 · price 0.69603
Higher lows inside a 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
NY spiked to a 0.6973 day high as USD eased on the Iran de-escalation headlines, then the move was rejected and fully reversed to the 0.6944 NY low. Since then rising lows have carried price back to 0.6960, into the 61.8% retrace of the NY spike near the 0.6962 late high. Early Asia is quiet, with price still well inside the 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
Support: 0.69553, 0.69514, 0.69438
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 late high and the 61.8% retrace opens the 0.6968 Asia high, then the 0.6973 day high
Break of the 0.6955 rollover low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 0.6951 swing low, then the 0.6944 NY low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations on Fri at 14:00 UTC; US yields remain the driver of the range
22:17 UTC
Two-way intraday range, higher lows since NY low · RSI 60 · price 0.69594
Higher lows 0.6944/0.6951/0.6955 under 0.6962 cap.
London's slide to 0.6932 reversed in NY. Oil-driven USD softness after the Iran headlines lifted AUDUSD to a 0.6973 day high, but the move faded to the 0.6944 NY low within 90 minutes. Since then the NY low, the 0.6951 swing low and the 0.6955 rollover low form a higher-low sequence, and early Asia is pressing the 0.6962 session high, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 0.69553, 0.69514, 0.69438
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 session high / 61.8% fib reopens the 0.6973 day high
Loss of the 0.6955 rollover low and then the 0.6951 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6944 NY low
No scheduled AUD/USD data in the next 8h; oil/Iran headlines and US yields remain the swing factor
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off NY low · RSI 58 · price 0.6958
Higher low at 0.6951 under a 0.6962 cap inside a 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
Both sides of the Asian range (0.6945–0.6968) failed to hold. London broke below it to the 0.6932 day low, and NY spiked to the 0.6973 day high before reversing to the 0.6944 NY low as US yields stayed near multi-decade highs. Since then price has carved a higher low at 0.6951 beneath the 0.6962 late-NY high, now in thin post-rollover trade with ATR(14) near 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 late-NY high breaks the cap and puts the 0.6973 day high back in focus
Loss of the 0.6951 higher low and the rising higher-low line returns price to the 0.6944 NY low
Below the 0.6932 day low, the 0.6935 range floor in the digest gives way
Oil/Iran headlines and US long-end yields during the Asia session can move AUD in thin liquidity
Wide 0.6932–0.6973 day range after false breaks of both Asian extremes; tight late-NY drift.
London broke the Asian low and ran to the 0.6932 day low. NY then reversed through the Asian high to a 0.6973 session high as USD faded on Iran de-escalation, met rejection, and gave the move back to the 0.6944 NY low. Price now sits at 0.6956 in early Asia, between the 0.6951 swing low and the 0.6962 late NY high, inside the 38.2–50% band of the NY reversal fib.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6973
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6951 swing low and the 0.6944 NY low reopens the 0.6932 day low near the 0.6935 range floor
M15 close above the 0.6962 late NY high (61.8% of the NY reversal fib) brings the 0.6973 session high back into play
US 10y yield moves and Iran/oil headlines are the main drivers through the Asia session
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-NY range 0.6951–0.6962 inside 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
London sold to the 0.6932 day low as hawkish Fed minutes lifted yields. NY then spiked to the 0.6973 day high on Trump's Iran de-escalation, but that rejection retraced most of the move to the 0.6944 NY low. Since then price has carved a higher low at 0.6951 and stalled under the 0.6962 range top into the rollover, with ATR compressed near 3–4 pips.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 range top reopens the 0.6973 day high
Loss of the 0.6951 higher low breaks the late-NY trendline and exposes the 0.6944 NY low
Below the NY low, the 61.8% fib near 0.6948 gives way and the 0.6932 day low comes back into play
Thin rollover/early Asia liquidity; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the read
21:05 UTC
Sideways, compressing after two-way NY swings · RSI 49 · price 0.69575
Lower highs from 0.6973 against higher lows from 0.6944, narrowing into the NY close.
London broke below the Asian range to a 0.6932 day low on hawkish-Fed, higher-yield USD demand. NY then spiked to a 0.6973 day high as oil-driven USD softening hit, a false break of the Asian high that was rejected back to the 0.6944 NY low. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at the 0.6962 late NY high and a 0.6951 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6962 late ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.6973 day high
Loss of the 0.6951 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6944 ny low, then the 0.6932 day low
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US long-end yields and Iran/oil headlines remain the swing factor for USD during Asia session
20:32 UTC
Sideways after two-way day, higher lows since NY low · RSI 55 · price 0.69583
Higher lows under a 0.6962 double cap inside the 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
Both edges of the 0.6945–0.6968 Asian range failed. London's false break to the 0.6932 day low reversed, and NY's spike to the 0.6973 ny high, as USD gave back ground on Iran de-escalation, met rejection. Since the 0.6944 swing low, price has built a 0.6951 higher low along the rising trendline but stalled twice at the 0.6962 double cap after NY close, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 double cap opens a retest of the 0.6973 ny high
Break of the 0.6951 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 0.6944 swing low
Loss of 0.6944 puts the 0.6932 day low back in play
Fri 14:00 UTC UMich sentiment, inflation expectations and Collins could materially shift this read via US yields
20:17 UTC
Late-NY recovery, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 0.69608
Intraday range 0.6932–0.6973; higher low at 0.6951 pressing the 0.6962 swing high.
NY spiked to a 0.6973 session high as Iran de-escalation knocked USD back, but the move was rejected and fully unwound to the 0.6944 swing low. Late NY has since printed a higher low at 0.6951 and is pressing the 0.6962 swing high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of that drop. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is shrinking into the thin late-session tape.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69622, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 swing high / 61.8% retrace opens the 0.6968 Asian high and the 0.6973 session high
Loss of the 0.6951 higher low breaks the rising support line and puts the 0.6944 swing low back in play
A break of the 0.6944 swing low exposes the 0.6932 day low from London
US 10y yields remain the driver into Asia; Friday's UMich data at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
20:03 UTC
Recovering within a choppy range, higher lows since London · RSI 58 · price 0.69601
Higher lows at 0.6932/0.6944/0.6951 under a 0.6962 swing high.
London sold AUDUSD to a 0.6932 day low as hawkish-Fed and yield pressure weighed. The NY spike to the 0.6973 day high came as USD pulled back on Iran de-escalation, and it was fully rejected down to the 0.6944 NY low. Late NY has since printed higher lows at 0.6944 and 0.6951, and price is pressing the 0.6962 swing high with the Asian high at 0.6968 just above.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 swing high exposes the 0.6968 Asian high and the 0.6973 day high
Break of the 0.6951 swing low ends the higher lows chain and puts the 0.6944 NY low back in play
Loss of the higher-lows trendline from the 0.6932 day low reopens the range floor
Thin liquidity after the NY close into Asia can exaggerate moves around these levels
Contracting range after NY spike rejection: lower highs, higher lows.
Late NY session. AUD/USD is coiling at 0.6957 between the 17:30 UTC swing high at 0.69615 and the 18:15 UTC swing low at 0.69514. Earlier, the NY rally swept the Asian high to a 0.6973 day high, in step with the USD fade on Iran de-escalation headlines, and was rejected there. Since the rejection, lower highs and higher lows have formed around the 38.2% retracement of the 0.6932–0.6973 rally.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69615 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.6973 day high
Failure to hold the 0.69514 swing low (the 50% retracement area) exposes the 0.69438 ny low, then the 0.69324 day low from London
Session close and Asia handover with ATR near 4.5 pips; range compression may persist into Asia
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
19:17 UTC
Two-way, contracting in late NY · RSI 55 · price 0.69559
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range after a failed break of the Asian high.
London took out the Asian low and hit a day low at 0.6932. The NY-open spike to 0.6973 came as USD faded on the Iran headlines, but it reversed back through the asian high (0.6968) and found demand at the ny low of 0.6944. Since then price has carved a 0.6962 lower high and a 0.6951 higher low, and is now pinned near EMA20 at 0.6956 with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high breaks the contraction and puts the 0.6968 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6951 higher low exposes the 0.6944 ny low, then the 0.6932 day low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US yield or oil/Hormuz headlines are the swing factor into Asia
Lower high 0.6962 vs higher low 0.6951, range compressing.
London broke the Asian low and ran to the 0.6932 day low as USD held firm on post-FOMC Minutes yields. NY then reversed through the 0.6968 Asian high to a 0.6973 day high but failed back inside the range. Late in NY, price is coiling between a 0.6962 lower high and a 0.6951 higher low above the 0.6944 NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6962 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 0.6968 Asian high and 0.6973 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6951 higher low exposes the 0.6944 NY low, then the 0.6932 day low
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower high 0.6962 vs higher low 0.6944 inside the 0.6932–0.6973 day range.
With AUD heavy on hawkish FOMC Minutes, NY pushed through the Asian high to the 0.6973 ny high and reversed fully to the 0.6944 ny low, a false break. The bounce stalled at the 0.6962 lower high, the 61.8% retrace and the London high, leaving price late in NY flat at EMA20 near 0.6954 in a contracting range above the 0.6932 day low.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 0.6973 ny high back into play
Failure to hold the 0.6944 ny low exposes the 0.6932 day low
Thin Asia session liquidity after NY close. US yield headlines and Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could shift this read
Lower high 0.6962 / higher low 0.6944 after NY false break of Asian high.
London broke below the Asian range to a 0.6932 session low as hawkish FOMC minutes and near-2002 US yields kept USD bid. NY then reversed through the 0.6968 Asian high to a 0.6973 session high, but that move failed. Since then, a lower high at 0.6962 and a higher low at 0.6944 have price coiling around 0.6952 late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.6968 Asian high and 0.6973 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6944 NY low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6932 session low near the 0.6935 range floor
Further gains in US 10y/30y yields, or a reversal in oil/Iran headlines, could break the compression
NY spike above the Asian high failed; price mid-range between 0.6944 and 0.6973.
London broke the Asian low to a 0.6932 day low as yields extended after the hawkish FOMC minutes. NY then reversed through the Asian high to 0.6973, but that break failed and price retraced about 70% of the day low-ny high leg to 0.6944. Late in NY hours price sits mid-range under a 0.6962 lower high, with RSI neutral near 46.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high reopens the 0.6973 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.6944 ny low exposes the 0.6932 day low
US yield moves and Iran/oil headlines into Friday's Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could reshape the range
18:03 UTC
Two-way, recovering from NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 0.69573
Higher low at 0.6944 after rejection from 0.6973 NY high; consolidating below the 0.6962 lower high.
London extended the post-FOMC-minutes slide to a day low at 0.6932 as US yields pressed multi-decade highs. NY then rallied through the Asian high to 0.6973, but that move was fully rejected back to 0.6944, a higher low on the trendline from the day low. Price is now drifting between 0.6950 and the 0.6962 lower high after London close, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69615, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high reopens the 0.6968 asian high and the 0.6973 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.6944 higher low breaks the day-low trendline and exposes the 0.6932 day low
Price near the 38.2% retrace of the day low to NY high move; a loss of the 61.8% level near 0.6948 weakens the recovery read
Late-session US yield or Iran/oil headlines remain the near-term driver; the calendar is empty for the next 8h
17:47 UTC
Two-way, rebounding inside NY range · RSI 59 · price 0.6960
Higher lows off 0.6944 within a 0.6932–0.6973 session range.
London broke the Asian range lower to a 0.6932 day low around the US claims print. NY then made a false break above the 0.6968 Asian high to a 0.6973 NY high, and gave back nearly 30 pips to the 0.6944 Asian low. After London close, price has built a chain of higher lows and is pressing the 0.6962 London high, which aligns with the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop. The rebound coincides with Trump's Iran de-escalation headline trimming haven USD demand; RSI(14) sits near 59.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968, 0.6973
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6962 London high and the 61.8% NY drop fib opens the 0.6968 Asian high and the 0.6973 NY high
Loss of the 0.6955 higher low returns focus to the 0.6944 Asian low, with the 0.6932 day low below
Fed's Musalem (17:40 UTC) is speaking now; hike-leaning remarks or a further rise in US yields could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Choppy, rebounding off NY higher low · RSI 54 · price 0.6959
Higher low at 0.6944 above 0.6932 day low, capped below 0.6973 spike high.
London broke the Asian range low and slid to a 0.6932 day low as hawkish FOMC minutes and high US yields weighed. NY then spiked through the 0.6968 asian high to a 0.6973 session high, but the move failed and gave back most of the leg to 0.6944. Price now sits at 0.6959 after London close, testing the 0.6962 london high with that 0.6944 higher low intact.
Support: 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968, 0.6973
What it said to watch
Musalem speaks at 17:40 UTC and could materially shift this read; AUD is trading inversely to US yields
Stall at the 0.6962 london high keeps price inside the retracement of the NY spike
M15 close above the 0.6968 asian high reopens the 0.6973 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6944 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6932 day low
Higher low at 0.69438 after NY false break above Asian high.
Hawkish Fed minutes and firm UST yields pushed AUD to a 0.69324 day low in London. NY then ran above the 0.69679 Asian high to a 0.69726 session high and was rejected back to a 0.69438 pullback low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of the NY rally, leaving a higher low. Price now sits mid-range near 0.6955 after London close, RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.69679, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69580 bounce high reopens the 0.69679 Asian high and the 0.69726 session high
Break of the 0.69438 pullback low voids the higher-low line and exposes the 0.69324 day low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could move yields and shift this read
17:05 UTC
Choppy intraday, no direction after failed NY spike · RSI 50 · price 0.69515
False break above Asian high at 0.6973, now mid-range under a 0.6958 lower high.
London sold through the Asian low to the 0.6932 london low. NY then reversed it, spiking through the Asian high to a 0.6973 session high before a sharp rejection unwound the NY rally into the 0.6944 swing low. Price is chopping around the 50% retracement near 0.6952, fractionally under both EMAs, with a 0.6958 lower high capping and hawkish Fed minutes plus near-2002-high UST yields keeping AUD heavy.
Support: 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.69617, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6958 lower high reopens the 0.6962 london high and the 0.6973 session high
Break of the 0.6944 swing low exposes the 0.6932 london low and the 0.6935 range floor
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could move yields and shift this read
0.6932–0.6973 range; higher low at 0.6944 after the session high was rejected.
London sold AUD/USD to a day low at 0.6932 as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields kept USD bid. NY then spiked past the London high at 0.6962 to a session high at 0.6973, and that move was rejected within the hour, a false break. The pullback set a higher low at 0.6944, about 71% of the fib of rally, and price is now pivoting near the 50% level around 0.6953 after London close, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6962, 0.6973
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6958 bounce high and the 0.6962 london high reopens the 0.6973 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6944 higher low exposes the 0.6932 day low and the 0.6935 range floor
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
16:33 UTC
Two-way chop, no directional control · RSI 52 · price 0.69513
Early NY lifted price from the 0.6932 london low to a 0.6973 ny high, a false break above the Asian high near 0.6968 that was fully rejected. Price fell back through the fib 61.8% at 0.6948 to the 0.6944 prior lows, about 71% of the move, with USD still firm on yields. Late NY now has price pinned at EMA20/50 near 0.6951 with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6973
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 0.6944 prior lows puts the 0.6932 london low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.6958 spike high reopens the 0.6973 ny high
Fib 61.8% at 0.6948 is the pivot inside the range
16:18 UTC
Choppy, heavy after failed NY rally · RSI 41 · price 0.69471
False break above Asian high, full reversal back to Asian low.
The NY rally off the 0.6932 day low cleared the London high and Asian high to print a 0.6973 NY high, then was rejected and fully unwound to the 0.6944 Asia low, near the 61.8% fib of the NY rally. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, as firm US yields after hawkish FOMC minutes and the 197K claims print keep AUD heavy after London close.
Support: 0.6944, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6944 asia low exposes the 0.6932 day low and digest range support near 0.6935
Recovery above the 0.6962 london high reopens the 0.6973 ny high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, reversal back to asia low.
Early NY lifted price above the 0.6968 Asian high to a 0.6973 NY high, then reversed hard. The drop has retraced more than 61.8% of the NY rally fib from the 0.6932 day low as US yields push toward 2002 highs on the hawkish Fed minutes. Price now sits on the 0.6945 asia low, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 asia low exposes the 0.6932 day low, near the 0.6935 range support flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 0.6962 london high would neutralise the NY-high rejection
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC on October vs December hike timing could shift this read
15:32 UTC
Rebound from London low, rejected at NY high · RSI 53 · price 0.69535
False break above prior high, pulling back to 50% fib.
Early in the NY session price spiked to a 0.6973 NY high, briefly clearing the 0.6969 prior high, then reversed. Four straight lower closes have since retraced half of the 0.6932–0.6973 rally, and price is sitting on the 50% fib near 0.6951. The 0.6932 session low printed during London as USD stayed firm on Treasury yields near 2002 highs.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6945, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6969, 0.6973
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 asian low and the rising support from 0.6932 would unwind most of the London-NY rebound
Reclaim of the 0.6969 prior high, after clearing the 0.6962 london high, would negate the false break at the 0.6973 ny high
Loss of 0.6932 session low exposes fresh intraday lows
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
15:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, now retracing · RSI 58 · price 0.69582
V-bounce from London low, rejection at window high.
London broke the 0.6945 asian low and extended to 0.6932. NY hours then brought a 40-pip rebound that swept the prior high at 0.6969 to a 0.6973 ny high before rejection. The pullback is now testing the 38.2% fib near 0.6957 with RSI(14) cooling to about 58, while USD tone stays firm on yields near 2002 highs.
Support: 0.69572, 0.69525, 0.69447
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69691, 0.69726
What it said to watch
A close below the 50% fib at 0.6952 points to a deeper retrace toward the asian low at 0.6945.
Recovery above the london high at 0.6962 reopens the 0.6969 prior high and the 0.6973 ny high.
A break of the rally support trendline from the 0.6932 low would mark the NY rebound as failed.
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read.
15:03 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling at the highs · RSI 63 · price 0.6962
V-recovery from 0.6932 low; false break above prior high, back inside range.
AUD retraced the London slide from 0.6932 to 0.6973 in the first hour of NY, briefly clearing the 0.6969 prior high before the spike was rejected back to 0.6962. RSI(14) has cooled to ~63. Digest backdrop of hawkish FOMC minutes and Treasury yields near 2002 highs leaves the bounce running against the prevailing USD bid.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6945, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6973
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6973 session high negates the false-break read
Loss of 0.6957 (fib 38.2 of the NY rally) exposes the rally trendline near 0.6952 and the 0.6945 asian low
Break below 0.6932 session low resumes the intraday lower-low sequence
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
14:47 UTC
Sharp NY rebound, stalling at the session high · RSI 69 · price 0.69662
London false break below the Asian low; NY reclaimed it and briefly cleared the Asian high.
London broke the 0.6945 Asian low to a 0.6932 session low, then NY reversed it with a 40-pip rally through the 0.6962 London high, against the firm post-minutes USD backdrop. The 14:30 UTC bar was rejected at the 0.6973 session high and closed back under the 0.6968 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6945, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6973, 0.6985
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6973 session high opens the 0.6985 range cap
Loss of the 0.6962 London high and the rising lows line puts the 0.6953 fib 50% and the 0.6945 Asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6932 session low would erase the NY rally
Kashkari (14:40 UTC, under way) and Musalem (17:40 UTC): pushback on a December hike or a move in US yields could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off day low, momentum hot · RSI 74 · price 0.69689
Higher-low chain from 0.6932, Asian high cleared, testing prior high.
AUDUSD rebounded about 37 pips from the 0.6932 day low set during London hours. Through early NY it cleared the Asian high at 0.6968 and is now pressing the prior high at 0.6970, with RSI(14) near 74. The move runs against the firm-USD backdrop after the 197K claims beat; a rising rebound trendline from the day low tracks the higher-low chain.
Support: 0.6968, 0.6941, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6975, 0.6985
What it said to watch
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6975 range top opens the 0.6985 breakout level
Rejection at the prior high and a close back below the Asian high at 0.6968 would mark a false break
A pullback that holds the 38.2–50% rebound fib (0.6955–0.6951) keeps the higher-low structure intact
Break of the rebound trendline and the 0.6941 higher low exposes the 0.6932 day low
London break of Asian low failed; NY HH/HL chain back inside Asian range.
London pushed through the Asian low at 0.6945 to a session low at 0.6932, just under the 0.6935 area, but the break failed. NY has since reclaimed the Asian range with a clean higher-low chain off the support trendline despite firm US claims (197K). Price is now pressing toward the London high at 0.6962, with RSI(14) at 61 and room before stretched readings.
Support: 0.69511, 0.6941, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6962 london high puts the 0.6968 asian high in play
Loss of 0.6951 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the support trendline
Break below 0.6941 higher low reopens the 0.6932 session low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could shift USD tone and this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low · RSI 59 · price 0.69538
HH/HL chain off 0.6932 session low, Asian low reclaimed.
London broke the 0.6945 Asian low and ran to a 0.6932 session low as firm US yields weighed, but NY has reclaimed the Asian low via a higher-low chain and is retracing ~73% of the London leg into the 0.6954 NY high. RSI(14) ~59, price back above both EMAs, with the 0.6962 London high the next cap.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69409, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69544, 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6941 higher low breaks the NY recovery chain and re-exposes the 0.6932 session low
Acceptance above the 0.6954 NY high and 0.6962 London high puts the 0.6968 Asian high in play
Slip back under the 0.6945 Asian low would turn the reclaim into a failed recovery
Kashkari 14:40 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Asian low broken in London, reclaimed in NY; higher lows since 0.6932.
London took out the Asian low near 0.6945 and ran to a 0.6932 session low, briefly piercing the 0.6935 support as hawkish Fed minutes and high US yields kept USD bid. The break did not hold: NY has built a higher low at 0.6941 along rising support, shrugged off a brief dip on the 12:30 UTC claims beat, and is now pressing the 0.6951 ema50 / fib cluster (61.8% of the London high-to-low drop) after one rejection there at 13:00.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6962, 0.6968
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 ema50 / fib cluster opens the 0.6962 london high, then the 0.6968 asian high
Loss of the 0.6941 higher low breaks rising support and reopens the 0.6932 session low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could move USD through yields and shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower high at 0.6962 then low at 0.6932; bounce capped at the 61.8% retracement.
London broke below the Asian range, faded from its 0.6962 high and extended to a 0.6932 session low as firm USD and high yields after the hawkish Fed minutes weighed. The NY bounce after the 197K claims beat stalled at the 0.6951 spike high, which sits on the 61.8% retracement. Price is now pinned near the 50% level, with the 0.6941 pullback low below.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 spike high and 61.8% fib would leave a retest of the 0.6962 london high in play
Failure to hold the 0.6941 pullback low would put the 0.6932 session low back in focus, near the 0.6935 level flagged in market commentary
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read through US yields
Lower highs 0.6968 → 0.6962 → 0.6951; higher low at 0.6941 after the 0.6932 session low.
London broke the asian low at 0.6945 and extended to a 0.6932 session low as US yields held near multi-decade highs after the hawkish Fed minutes. The rebound found rejection at the NY open high of 0.6951, near the 61.8% of the London leg. Price is back above the asian low with a higher low at 0.6941, but the lower-highs sequence is intact.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69409, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69511, 0.69617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 ny open high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.6962 london high in view
Failure to hold the asian low at 0.6945 and the 0.6941 higher low brings the 0.6932 session low back into play
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could shift this read via US yields
LH/LL chain; Asian range low broken, retest rejected.
The London selloff from the 0.6962 London high broke the Asian range low near 0.6945 and set a 0.6932 session low, with US yields holding near 2002 highs after the hawkish Fed minutes. The rebound stalled at 0.6948, a lower high and retest of the broken Asian low, and the 12:30 UTC claims bar faded to 0.6942 as the NY session opens; RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 0.69324, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.69617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 lower high reclaims the Asian low and breaks the lower-high sequence
Break of the 0.6932 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 3m low
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and US 10y yields near 2002 highs could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 34 · price 0.69412
Asian range low broken; lower-high chain capped below 0.6948.
London broke below the 0.6945 Asian range low and set a session low at 0.6932. The rebound stalled at the 0.6948 rebound high, near the 50% retrace of the drop from the 0.6962 london high. The post-claims 12:30 UTC bar faded back to 0.6941, extending the lower-high trendline as hawkish Fed minutes and firm US yields keep USD supported.
Support: 0.69324, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.69617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 rebound high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.6962 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6932 session low confirms a lower low with the 0.6900 3m low next in view
Jobless claims follow-through and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift the yield-driven read
Lower highs from the London high; Asian range low broken, now retested from below.
London capped at the 0.6962 london high and broke the 0.6945 asian low, extending to a 0.6932 session low as USD stayed bid on hawkish FOMC minutes and near-2002-high yields. The rebound into the London-NY transition has stalled at the old asian low, which sits close to the 50% fib of the 0.6962–0.6932 drop.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6962
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6945 asian low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6951 neutralises the breakdown
Failure at 0.6945 followed by a break of the 0.6932 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 3m low
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, current bar) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery through the 0.6962 london high invalidates the downtrend read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 0.69414
Broke below Asian range low; bounce retesting the broken level from below.
London capped at 0.6962 and printed lower highs before breaking the Asian low at 0.6945, extending to a 0.6932 session low as USD stayed bid on the hawkish FOMC minutes and yields near 2002 highs. The 12:00 UTC bounce stalled at the broken Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London high-session low drop, and price sits under both EMAs in the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6962
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands within the next bar; ATR is only ~4 pips, so the print could dwarf current ranges
M15 close back above the 0.6945 Asian low negates the range break and puts the 0.6962 London high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6932 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.6900 3-month low
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC during NY hours could shift the read on USD
Lower highs from 0.6962 London high after Asian range break lower.
The early-London break of the 0.6954–0.6968 Asian range lower ran into a lower-high sequence from the 0.6962 London high. The drop dipped to a 0.6932 session low, a wick below the 0.6935 band floor, before price closed back above it. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched and ATR sits around 4.5 pips, with hawkish Fed minutes and 2002-high US yields keeping USD bid.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6962
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, with Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6932 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 3m low
Recovery above the 0.6945 breakdown level (38.2% of the London drop) breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the lower-highs trendline keeps the London downtrend structure intact
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 0.6940
Asian range low broken, lower-high sequence from London high.
London faded from the 0.6962 London high in a string of lower highs and broke the Asian low at 0.6945, reaching a 0.6932 session low just under the 0.6935 range floor. US yields stayed firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The latest bars wicked back to 0.6940, and RSI(14) is near 31, not yet extreme.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6958, 0.6962
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6945 asian low puts the range break in question
Close above the 0.6958 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6932 session low exposes the 0.6900 3m low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into late London · RSI 27 · price 0.69384
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; Asian range low broken.
London faded from the 0.6962 london high, extending the lower highs chain from Asia. Price broke the 0.6945 asian low and yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, printing a 0.6937 session low near the 0.6935 range floor, with firm US yields keeping USD bid. RSI(14) is near 27, soft but not extreme, and ATR is about 4 pips into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6935, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69424, 0.69447, 0.69617
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained trade below the 0.6935 range floor exposes the 0.6900 3m low
An M15 close back above the 0.6945 asian low would mark the break as a false break, with the 50% london drop fib near 0.6949 overhead
A close above the lower highs trendline (~0.6959) invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs 0.6968→0.6962, 0.6945 base broken late London.
Late London rolled over from the 0.6962 London high and broke the 0.6945 broken base that held at the London open. Price printed a session low at 0.6939 and cleared yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, extending the lower-highs sequence. RSI(14) sits near 32 with price just above the 0.6935 range floor, as hawkish Fed Minutes and US yields near 2002 highs keep USD bid.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6935, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6942, 0.6945, 0.6962
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6935 range floor exposes the 0.6900 3m low
An M15 close back above the 0.6945 broken base would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 0.6962 London high breaks the lower-highs line
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
A rebound into the 0.6950s would retest the London leg fib mid-zone
11:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.69441
Lower-high chain from the Asian high, price retesting the Asian low late in London.
Late London has rolled back to retest the Asian low at 0.69447. Supply capped the London high at 0.69617 and then the 0.69577 lower high, extending the lower-high sequence from the 0.69679 Asian high as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields weigh on AUD. RSI(14) is near 35, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69577, 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69424 prior low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Recovery above the 0.69577 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.69617 london high next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read around the NY open
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 0.69464
Asian range broken lower; third test of 0.6945 session low.
The 0.6954–0.6968 Asian range broke lower late in Asia, and London has since printed a lower high at 0.6962 (london high) and another at 0.6958, with price back on the 0.6945 session low for a third test. USD stays firm on the hawkish FOMC Minutes and 2002-high yields. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched, and the lower-high trendline from the asian high caps price.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69577, 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 0.6942 and the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6958 lower high and the 0.6962 london high breaks the lower-high trendline read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Lower highs since Asian peak, flat floor at 0.6945.
Mid-London, AUDUSD has faded the 0.6962 london high and printed lower highs since the 0.6968 asian high. Price has given back about 80% of the early-London leg off 0.6945 as hawkish FOMC Minutes and US yields near 2002 highs weigh. It is now pressing the 0.6945 asian low, with yesterday's 0.6942 prior low and the 0.6935 range floor below.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69524, 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6945 asian low breaks the session floor and exposes the 0.6942 prior low, then the 0.6935 range floor.
A recovery above the ema20 near 0.6952 and the lower-highs line eases the pressure; the 0.6962 london high is the next cap.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read.
10:17 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from London high · RSI 46 · price 0.69502
Lower highs since 08:30 UTC inside the Asian range.
Asia carved a 0.6945–0.6968 range as hawkish FOMC Minutes kept USD bid. London opened with a second test of the asian low and bounced to the london high at 0.6962, where it was rejected. A lower high at 0.6958 has since pushed price back to psych 0.6950, about 70% into the London leg, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69577, 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 asian low puts the 0.6942 prior low and the 0.6935 range floor in play
Close back above the 0.6958 lower high breaks the London descending trendline; the london high at 0.6962 is next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, mild downside pressure · RSI 46 · price 0.69512
Mid-London range 0.6945–0.6962 below a lower high off the Asian high.
AUD stays heavy on hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs. The pre-London drop broke the Asian range low, and the London low at 0.6945 held twice. The bounce was rejected at the London high of 0.6962, a lower high under the Asian high at 0.6968, and price is now back at the 61.8% retrace of that London swing near 0.6951 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 london low exposes the 0.6942 prior low and the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6962 london high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 0.6968 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday down, chopping below Asian range · RSI 49 · price 0.69529
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian low lost and now capping.
The 0.6954–0.6968 Asian range broke lower before London to a 0.6945 low. Buyers held that London low on the open, but the bounce stalled at 0.6962, the London high, extending the lower-highs sequence from the Asian high. Mid-London, price sits back under the former Asian low near 0.6953, about a 50% retrace of the London bounce, with hawkish FOMC minutes and ~5.30% US 10y yields keeping AUD heavy.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6962, 0.6968
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6955 Asian low reopens the 0.6962 London high and 0.6968 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6945 London low exposes the 0.6942 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Lower-highs line from the Asian high stays intact while price holds below 0.6962
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 52 · price 0.69552
London trading inside the Asian range 0.6945–0.6968; double low at 0.6945, lower highs capping.
Asia sold from the 0.6968 asian high to 0.6945 as hawkish Fed minutes and firm US yields weighed on AUD. Buyers stepped in at the London open for a double low at 0.6945. The bounce stalled at the 0.6962 london high, about a 73% retrace of the Asian drop, and price is now mid-range near 0.6955 with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 0.69516, 0.6945, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6952 pullback low puts the 0.6945 double low back in play; a break there exposes the 0.6942 prior low
Close above the 0.6962 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and targets the 0.6968 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the Asian range either way
Inside Asian range; base at 0.6945, London high rejected.
AUDUSD slid to the 0.6945 Asian low late in the Asia session as the USD stayed firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes. London's rebound met rejection at the 0.6962 London high, and price is back at the 0.6950 round number, about halfway into that leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69617, 0.69679
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6945 Asian low and yesterday's 0.6942 prior low would extend the lower-low sequence.
A close back above the 0.6962 London high reopens the 0.6968 Asian high.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read.
08:47 UTC
Intraday rebound within a heavy tone · RSI 53 · price 0.69579
Higher lows since London open, inside Asian range.
AUD stayed heavy after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The late-Asia drop through the 0.6954 range floor found a low at 0.6945, and the London open retest held there, forming a double bottom just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low. Two hours into the London session, price has built higher lows back to a 0.6962 session high, retracing past 61.8% of the Asian high-to-low decline. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6945, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 session high extends the higher-lows chain toward the 0.6968 Asian high
Loss of the 0.6954 range floor and the higher-lows line puts the 0.6945 double btm and 0.6942 prior low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Waller fallout could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 0.6945, rising lows into London; mid-to-upper Asian range.
With hawkish FOMC minutes and Hormuz risk-off weighing, AUD was pinned near 0.6945 into the London open. The session low held twice (double bottom), and London has since built rising lows and higher highs past the 61.8% of the Asian drop. Price is now pressing the 0.6963 prior pivot as Waller speaks, with the 0.6968 Asian high next above.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6945, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6963, 0.6968
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6968 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
M15 close back below the 0.6955 asia shelf breaks the rising-lows trendline and voids the recovery read
Loss of the 0.6945 session low exposes the 0.6942 prior low from yesterday
Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.6968, twin lows at 0.6945, retesting asian base.
AUD stayed heavy on the hawkish Fed Minutes and Hormuz risk-off. The pre-London drop from the 0.6968 asian high printed twin lows at 0.6945, just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, and demand held at that floor into the London open. Price has lifted to 0.6956, the 50% fib of that drop and the underside of the 0.6957 asian base, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6957, 0.6959, 0.6968
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6957 asian base and 61.8% fib at 0.6959 opens the 0.6968 asian high
Rejection at the asian base and a break of the 0.6945 twin lows exposes the 0.6942 prior low
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce stalling · RSI 43 · price 0.69507
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 0.6968.
AUD slipped out of the 0.6954–0.6968 Asian range into London open, extending the post-FOMC-minutes softness, and printed a london low twice at 0.6945, just above yesterday's prior low at 0.6942. The bounce from there stalled at 0.6955, the old asian low, keeping the descending highs from 0.6968 intact.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6942, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6955 (asian low) puts price back inside the Asian range and tests the descending highs line
Break below 0.6945 london low and 0.6942 prior low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6900 3m low
Recovery through 0.6968 asian high toward 0.6974 prior high would negate the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 45 · price 0.69534
Lower highs from 0.6968; twin lows at 0.6945 above prior low.
AUD stayed heavy on the hawkish Fed Minutes and 2002-high US yields. A late-Asia drop from the 0.6955 asia shelf printed a session low at 0.6945, retested in early London and held just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low. The bounce has stalled back at the shelf, still under the lower highs line from the 0.6968 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.6945, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69552, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 asia shelf and the lower highs line points to a retest of the 0.6968 asia high
Break of the 0.6945 session low and the 0.6942 prior low voids the double bottom and extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian lower-high sequence broken at London open; higher low at 0.6945.
AUD bled through Asia from the 0.6968 asian high to a 0.6945 asian low as the hawkish Fed Minutes and risk-off weighed. London open printed a higher low at 0.6945, forming a double bottom. The next bar broke the Asian downtrend line, and price is now pinned at EMA20 and the 38.2% retrace near 0.6954, with ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6957, 0.69679
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6945 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes yesterday's 0.6942 prior low
Acceptance above the 0.6957 asia shelf, near the 50% fib, opens the 0.6968 asian high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, then jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.69468
Asian range broken lower, old range floor capping the retest.
Asia held a 0.6954–0.6968 range, then broke lower at 05:45 UTC on firm USD after the hawkish Fed Minutes. The bounce stalled at the old asian low (0.6954), extending lower highs from the 0.6968 asian high. London open is pressing the 0.6945 session low again, with the prior low at 0.6942 just beneath; RSI(14) ~35 and price sits under both EMAs.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69542, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6942 prior low confirms a lower-low beyond the session low
Reclaim of the 0.6954 asian low puts price back inside the range and negates the break
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above the lower highs trendline, toward the 0.6968 asian high, would reverse the session structure
07:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.69487
Lower-high/lower-low chain; broken range base retested from below.
The 5.3% inflation-expectations print lifted AUD to the 0.6968 Asian high, but supply returned. Price then broke the 0.6954 range base to 0.6945 as the post-FOMC-minutes USD bid held. The bounce stalled at the range base and 38.2% fib, and London opens just above the Asian low with yesterday's 0.6942 prior low below.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69542, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6954 range base and lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6945 Asian low exposes the 0.6942 prior low and confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 44 · price 0.69534
Asian range floor broken, bounce testing it from below.
Late Asia broke the 0.6955 asian floor to a 0.6945 session low, just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, then bounced back to test the broken floor into London open. The 5.3% inflation expectations print drove the Asia lift to the 0.6968 asian high, but the pair has faded since against a USD still firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69555, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6955 asian floor reclaims the Asian range and turns the dip into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6945 session low and the 0.6942 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6930
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Price is near the 38.2% retrace of the asian high to session low drop; a stall there keeps the drop intact
06:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 02:15 UTC · RSI 39 · price 0.69519
Asian range floor broken, price retesting it from below.
Late in the Asia session, 30 minutes before London open, AUDUSD broke the 0.6954 range floor at 05:45 UTC. It dropped to a 0.6945 session low, just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, as the USD bid on 24-year-high yields and the hawkish FOMC Minutes persisted. The rebound stalled at 0.6954 near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian drop, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6954, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6954 range floor would turn the break into a false break and put the 0.6968 asian high back in play
Loss of the 0.6942 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6930 support zone
Rejection at 0.6954 into London open confirms the retest
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6968 Asian high, lower low at 0.6945.
Late Asia broke the 0.6955–0.6957 shelf and fell to a 0.6945 session low. That low held just above yesterday's 0.6942 prior low, and buyers stepped in there, but price sits at 0.6952, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40 ahead of the London open. AUD is heavy on the hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.3% UST yields.
Support: 0.69447, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.69679
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6942 prior low extends the lower-low sequence beneath yesterday's London trough
Reclaim of the 0.6956 shelf (fib 50%) neutralises the Asia breakdown and puts the 0.6968 Asian high back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 26 · price 0.69471
Late-Asia break below Asian range low, lower highs since 0.6968.
The Asian bounce to the 0.6968 asian high after the 5.3% inflation-expectations print has fully faded. Late in the Asia session price broke the 0.6954 asian low and printed 0.6945, now about 3 pips above Wednesday's 0.6942 prior low, with USD firm on record-high yields. RSI(14) is near 26 and ATR(14) about 3 pips heading into London open, and the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg sits at the broken asian low.
Support: 0.69424, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6954, 0.69679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6942 prior low confirms a lower-low and puts 0.6930 key support in view
Recovery back above the 0.6954 asian low / 38.2% retrace would mark the break as a false break, with the 0.6968 asian high above
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at Asian high, slipping out of the 0.6954–0.6957 base.
Asia's bounce was rejected at the 0.6968 asian high, a lower high under yesterday's 0.6969 NY peak. Late Asia has slipped through the 0.6954–0.6957 range base to a new asian low at 0.6952 ahead of London open, with firm UST yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes keeping USD supported. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is only ~2.7 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 0.6952, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6957, 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.6952 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.6942 prior low
A move back above the 0.6957 range base would make the break a false break
A close above the 0.6968 asian high breaks the lower-high structure and puts the 0.6974 prior high in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could expand the compressed ATR and shift this read
Late-Asia compression above the 0.6954 asian low after a lower high at 0.6968.
Asia faded from the 0.6968 asian high at 02:30 UTC. The 03:00 breakdown below 0.6962 left price compressing at 0.6954–0.6957, just above the asian low, which has been tested three times, and near the 50% of yesterday's 0.6942–0.6969 ny rebound. The firm USD after hawkish FOMC Minutes is capping AUD, partly offset by the 5.3% inflation expectations print. ATR(14) near 2.7 pips confirms a tight pre-London range.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low exposes the 61.8% of the ny rebound near 0.6953 and the 0.6942 prior low
Recovery above the 0.6962 breakdown point reopens the 0.6968 asian high
London open in under 2h is likely to resolve the current compression
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968, price pinned at range floor.
Asia's bounce off the 0.6954 Asian low met rejection at the 0.6968 Asian high, in line with yesterday's NY peak. Price has since faded back to the floor and is compressing in a 3-pip band at the 50% level of the NY rally fib ahead of London open, with USD firm after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. ATR(14) under 3 pips reflects thin late-Asia trade.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.6942 NY low
Reclaim of the 0.6968 Asian high reopens the 0.6974 London high
Loss of the 50% NY rally fib shifts focus to a deeper retrace of yesterday's NY bounce
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968; lower high at 0.6968, price pinned at the range floor.
Late Asia session. The bounce after the 5.3% inflation-expectations print faded at the 0.6968 asian high, a lower high under yesterday's 0.6969 NY peak, as the post-FOMC Minutes USD bid held. Price is now sitting on the 0.6954 asian low, which is also the 50% of the ny rally fib, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) about 3 pips: a tight range ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6949, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.6949 london low, then the 0.6942 prior low
Recovery above the 0.6962 breakdown point reopens the 0.6968 asian high; a close through that and the lower-high trendline brings the 0.6974 london high into view
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Sideways, heavy into Asian low · RSI 44 · price 0.69556
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968; high faded, price back on floor.
Late Asia session: the push to the 0.6968 Asian high was rejected and price slid back to the 0.6954 Asian low, tested three times since 00:30 UTC. It now sits at the fib 50% retrace of yesterday's 0.6942 prior low to 0.6969 rally, with USD firm after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. ATR(14) is near 3 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low exposes the 0.6942 prior low
Recovery through the 0.6968 asian high and 0.6974 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.6954–0.6969, lower high in Asia, price at range floor.
Late Asia session. The Asian rally to 0.6968 (asian high) was rejected just under yesterday's 0.6969 range top, set as the hawkish FOMC Minutes kept USD bid, and has fully retraced to the 0.6954 asian low. Price sits on the 50% level of the rebound fib from the 0.6942 prior low and on the rising lows trendline, with ATR(14) compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.6954, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69623, 0.69679, 0.69691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 0.6942 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.6962 breakdown level puts the 0.6968 asian high and 0.6969 range top back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range compression
04:03 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower high in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.69564
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968, price back at range floor.
Late Asia session: a rejection at the 0.6968 Asian high, a lower high under yesterday's 0.6969 NY peak, sent price back to the 0.6954 Asian low. That low sits on the 50% retrace of the NY rally from the 0.6942 prior low. The 0.6962 breakdown caps the bounce with USD firm after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) is near 48 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips, so ranges are compressing ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6949, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6949 swing low, then the 0.6942 prior low
Recovery above the 0.6962 breakdown puts the 0.6968 asian high and lower-high trendline back in focus; a clear above that opens the 0.6974 prior high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968, price back at range floor.
The Asia bounce after the 5.3% inflation expectations print stalled at the 0.6968 asian high, just under the post-FOMC Minutes cap at 0.6969. Price has since given back almost the full move to the 0.6954 asian low, below the ema20 near 0.6960, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6949, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low exposes the 0.6949 swing low and yesterday's 0.6942 prior low
Recovery above the 0.6968 asian high reopens the 0.6974 prior high
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 0.6960 keeps price pinned to the range floor
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6954–0.6968, full rejection of the rally back to the low.
The Asia session rally to the 0.6968 asian high was rejected, and price gave back the whole leg to the 0.6954 asian low as USD stays bid after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Price now sits on the 50% fib of the NY rebound from the 0.6942 london low and on rising support, with both EMAs overhead and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 asian low breaks rising support and exposes the 0.6942 london low
Recovery through the 0.6968 asian high reopens the 0.6974 prior high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Range, rolling over from Asian high · RSI 43 · price 0.69565
Lower high at 0.6968 under NY high; testing Asian low.
Rejection at the 0.6968 Asian high, just under yesterday's 0.6969 NY peak, has fully retraced the Asian rally, and price is back on the 0.6954 Asian low with RSI(14) near 43. The day low at 0.6942 came from yesterday's London-to-NY selloff on the yield-driven USD bid. The 0.6975 prior high above has capped the window since the Asia open.
Support: 0.6954, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69679, 0.69745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6954 Asian low breaks the session range and exposes the 0.6942 day low
Recovery back above the 0.6968 Asian high puts the 0.6975 prior high back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, around the London open, could shift the USD side of this read
0.6954–0.6969 range since NY rebound from 0.6942 low.
Mid-Asia session, AUDUSD has been boxed in the 0.6954–0.6969 range since the NY rebound off the 0.6942 prior low, with hawkish Fed minutes keeping a lid on rallies. Asia dipped to the 0.6954 asian low, then rallied, but rejection at the 0.6968 asian high (a lower high under 0.6969) has price back at the 50% fib near 0.6961. RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and price is pinned to flat EMA20/50.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6968 asian high and range top at 0.6969 opens the 0.6974 london high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.6959 and the 0.6954 asian low exposes the 0.6942 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the range if he explicitly backs a December hike
Asia session range 0.6954–0.6968 below the 0.6969 NY high.
Mid-Asia session, AUDUSD dipped to the 0.6954 asia low, a higher low above the 0.6942 ny low. It then lifted 14 pips as USD softened in early Asia and the 5.3% inflation-expectations print landed. The leg stalled with a rejection at 0.6968, just under the 0.6969 ny high, and price now sits above the ema20 near 0.6962 with RSI 56 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high breaks the range top, with the prior asia high at 0.6974 next
Loss of the ema20 and the 50% fib of the Asia leg near 0.6961 puts the 0.6954 asia low back in play
A break below the higher low trendline from the 0.6942 ny low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing NY high · RSI 64 · price 0.69668
Higher low at Asian low vs day low, testing NY high cap.
Asia session swept below the late-NY lows to an Asian low at 0.6954, then rallied about 14 pips back to retest the NY high at 0.6969. That leaves a higher low against the 0.6942 day low set during London on the USD bid. The bounce came after the 5.3% inflation-expectations print, with RSI(14) firm near 64 but not stretched.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 NY high opens the prior high at 0.6974 from the previous Asia session
Rejection at 0.6969 and a slip back under 0.6960 returns focus to the 0.6954 Asian low
Loss of 0.6954 breaks the higher-low line toward the 0.6942 day low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read via yields
02:17 UTC
Short-term upswing off Asia low · RSI 64 · price 0.69666
Higher highs off 0.6954 double low, testing prior high.
Mid-Asia session, AUD/USD has lifted from a double low at the 0.6954 Asia low to a new session high near 0.6967. It has retraced most of the drop from yesterday's 0.6969 NY prior high, with the bounce coinciding with the jump in consumer inflation expectations to 5.3%. RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched, and price sits above both EMAs.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6954, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69691, 0.69745
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 prior high exposes the 0.6974 swing high
Slip back below the 0.6960 pivot puts the 0.6954 asia low back in play
Loss of the 0.6954 asia low reopens yesterday's 0.6942 day low
Waller 08:30 UTC and jobless claims 12:30 UTC; US yields remain the dominant USD driver
02:03 UTC
Intraday rebound after a soft London/NY session · RSI 55 · price 0.6965
Lower highs from the NY high broken; Asia double bottom at 0.6954.
AUD drifted from the 0.6969 NY high to a 0.6954 asian low after the hawkish FOMC minutes. It formed a double bottom there and has broken the descending tl, now testing the 0.6964 asia high. That high has been reclaimed, but price is still inside the 0.6942 london low to 0.6976 prior high band, with ATR(14) about 3 pips and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6976
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6969 ny high extends the rebound toward the 0.6976 prior high
Slip back below the 0.6964 asia high and the descending tl turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.6954 asian low reopens the 0.6942 london low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
01:47 UTC
Sideways, rebounding inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 0.69622
Asian range 0.6954–0.6964 under lower highs from 0.6969.
Price has drifted lower from the 0.6969 NY high since the hawkish FOMC minutes. Mid-Asia, demand stepped in twice at the 0.6954 Asian low, close to the 61.8% fib of yesterday's rally from the 0.6942 London low. The pair is back at 0.6962, just under the 0.6964 Asian high and the lower-highs line, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6969
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6964 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.6969 NY high back in play
Loss of the 0.6954 Asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 0.6942 London low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could shift USD tone heading into London-NY hours
01:32 UTC
Heavy, lower highs through Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.69582
Asian range 0.6954–0.6964, bounce off low.
Early Asia session saw AUD slip to an asian low at 0.6954 despite the jump in inflation expectations to 5.3%, as hawkish FOMC minutes kept USD firm. Price has bounced to about the 50% level of the asian fib, but it stays below EMA20 and is capped under the 0.6964 asian high. The NY high at 0.6969 also caps price on post-minutes fading.
Support: 0.6954, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6954 asian low opens a retest of the 0.6942 day low
Reclaim of 0.6964 asian high shifts the read back toward the 0.6969 ny high
Rejection near the 61.8% of the asian fib (~0.6960) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US Initial Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY high at 0.6969; early Asia probing 0.6954.
After the hawkish FOMC minutes, AUDUSD capped at the 0.6969 NY high and printed a lower high at 0.6964. Early Asia pressed to 0.6954, and the 5.3% inflation-expectations print gave no lift. Two tests of that Asian low held, and price sits just below both EMAs on a narrow ~2.7-pip ATR.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6969
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6964 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.6969 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6954 Asian low exposes the 0.6942 NY low from yesterday's session
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC during London could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Mild downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 46 · price 0.69569
Lower highs off 0.6969, retracing the NY rebound.
The NY rebound from the 0.6942 day low capped at the 0.6969 swing high before the hawkish Fed minutes. Highs have stepped lower since along a falling trendline. Early Asia slipped to a 0.6954 asia low despite the 5.3% inflation-expectations print and is holding near the 50% fib of the rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.69543, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6954 asia low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6953 exposes the 0.6942 day low
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.6964 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.6969 swing high next
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could reshape the USD leg
00:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from NY high · RSI 39 · price 0.6955
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.6969 NY high; early-Asia range broken lower.
Early Asia broke below the post-rollover range low at 0.6957 after the 5.3% inflation-expectations print failed to lift AUD, with USD still bid on the hawkish Fed minutes. Price is printing a fresh session low at 0.6954, sitting on the 50% level of the rebound fib (London 0.6942 day low to 0.6969 NY high). The lower-high trendline from the NY high capped the 0.6964 Asia high.
Support: 0.69543, 0.6950, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69566, 0.6964, 0.69691
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6954 session low and 0.6950 round number brings the 61.8% rebound fib at 0.6953, then the 0.6942 day low, into play
Reclaim of the 0.6957 range low and a close above the 0.6964 Asia high would break the lower-high trendline
M15 close above the 0.6969 NY high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 41 · price 0.69572
Lower highs from 0.6969, testing 50% of the day-low recovery.
AUD/USD is giving back the NY recovery from the 0.6942 day low after hawkish FOMC minutes revived Fed hike bets, printing lower highs below a descending trendline from the 0.6969 NY high. Early Asia session set a fresh session low at 0.6956, right on the 50% retracement of that recovery. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 2.6 pips, a quiet tape.
Support: 0.69559, 0.69469, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.69691, 0.69743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6956 session low and the 50% retracement exposes the 0.6947 pullback low, then the 0.6942 day low
Recovery above the 0.6964 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.6969 NY high and 0.6974 London high above
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations around the Asia open and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Flat after failed NY rebound, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.69601
Early-Asia range 0.6957–0.6964 below NY high.
NY's rebound from the 0.6942 ny low stalled at 0.6969 around the hawkish FOMC minutes. The minutes revived Fed hike bets, and price has printed lower highs since. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.6957 session low and the 0.6964 session high, holding near the 38.2–50% fib of that rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price pinned to flat EMAs.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6969, 0.6974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6964 session high reopens the 0.6969 ny high, then the 0.6974 london high
Break of the 0.6957 session low (50% fib) exposes the 0.6942 ny low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations due ~00:00 UTC could break the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read