21:06 UTC
Downtrend since Sep 9 high, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 32 · price 0.69599
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; bounce capped at 0.6990.
The August rally topped at the 0.7237 Sep high on Sep 9, and the pair has since printed a three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 on D1, with the EMA50 rolling over. The rebound off the swing low stalled at the 0.6990 Oct 6 high, just above the 23.6% retracement and under the falling trendline from the Sep peak, as hawkish Fed minutes and 10y UST yields near 2002 highs kept USD firm. Price is now drifting back toward the range floor near 0.6932.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7031, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 0.6990 Oct 6 high and the falling trendline would put the 38.2% fib at 0.7031 in play and challenge the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the 0.6932 range floor exposes the 0.6903 swing low; a close below it confirms a fresh lower low with the 0.6865 June low next
- RBA Minutes (Tue Oct 13 00:30 UTC) and Australian jobs data (Thu Oct 15) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt is the under-priced risk
- UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) and any further rise in US yields bear on the USD side of the move
- RSI near 32 is approaching oversold territory; a higher RSI low on a retest of the 0.6903 swing low would flag bullish divergence