21:07 UTC
Downtrend since Sept 9 high, basing above 0.6900 · RSI 39 · price 0.69665
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; 8-session base 0.6903–0.6990.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 Sept 9 high, unwinding most of the June–Sept rally, with price below a rolling-over EMA(50) near 0.7053 (ema50). The Oct 1 swing low at 0.6903 has held for eight sessions, but the rebound has stalled twice at the 0.6990 range cap, just under the falling trendline and the 23.6% fib of the Sept–Oct decline. Friday's lift tracked a pullback in US yields, while the hawkish Fed backdrop and receding RBA hike bets have kept the descending sequence intact.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7053, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.6990 range cap and the falling trendline opens a test of the 0.7053 ema50
- A break of the 0.6932 range floor exposes the 0.6903 swing low; a close below it confirms a lower-low toward the 0.6865 june low
- Only a recovery above the 0.7140 lower high would break the Sept–Oct downtrend sequence
- RBA Minutes (Tue 13 Oct) and AU jobs (Thu 15 Oct) are two-way risks to the 0.6903–0.6990 base
- US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields