21:06 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 52 · price 0.69665
0.6932–0.6990 range: higher lows under a flat cap.
The September decline from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 3-month low. Since then price has settled into a range, printing higher lows along rising support under a flat range cap near 0.6990, which has rejected twice and lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Sept decline fib. ATR(14) has compressed to about 15 pips from 25–30 during the sell-off. Price opened the week lower at 0.6966, sitting on EMA20 with EMA20 above EMA50, after Friday's lift came on a US yield pullback.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7044
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 0.6990 range cap and the 0.7000 round number opens the path to the 0.7044 prior high
- Break of rising support and the 0.6932 swing low re-exposes the 0.6903 3-month low
- RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6%) carry squeeze risk given heavy AUD net shorts
- US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read