Lower highs into the 0.6903 cycle low; 0.6932–0.6995 range since.
The slide from 0.7140 broke the 0.7027 prior shelf and the 0.7000 handle before bottoming at the 0.6903 cycle low. Since then the pair has held a two-week range, with a double low at 0.6932 and the range top near 0.6995, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the drop and has rejected price three times. With the USD bid at YTD highs on haven demand and a hawkish Fed, price has slipped back under the ema20 and a slightly lower ema50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 15 pips, so the range is tight ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6995, 0.7027
What it said to watch
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could break the 0.6932–0.6995 range
An H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and 0.7000 opens the path to the 0.7027 prior shelf
A break of the higher-lows trendline and failure at the 0.6932 double low exposes the 0.6903 cycle low
Price holding below the ema20 near 0.6966 keeps the range-top rejection in play
The late-September slide from 0.7140 to the 0.6903 swing low, driven by a hawkish Fed and US yields near 2002 levels, has given way to a higher-low recovery that keeps stalling at the 0.6995 range cap. That cap sits on the 38.2% retracement of the decline and just below the 0.7000 psych level. This week's push to 0.6995 met another rejection, and price has slipped back under a flattening EMA20/EMA50 pair. ATR(14) near 15 pips, well below the 25+ pip bars of the sell-off, shows the range compressing.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range cap and 0.7000 psych breaks the multi-day cap and opens the 0.7045 prior pivot
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 0.6903 swing low
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read given crowded AUD shorts
US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) is the main USD risk to the compression range
17:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, sideways range since Oct 1 · RSI 47 · price 0.69584
Lower highs from 0.7140 into a 0.6932–0.6995 range above the 0.6903 swing low.
The mid-September downtrend ran from 0.7140 through the 0.7040 prior range to a 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1. Since then price has held a 0.6932–0.6995 range, with the range floor defended twice. The range top lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the selloff fib, and Monday's push to 0.6995 met rejection there. Price is now back below the flattened ema cluster near 0.6970, and ATR(14) near 16 pips is roughly half the size of the selloff bars, a compression regime. A hawkish Fed and high US yields keep USD firm, and Thursday's FOMC-minutes dip stalled at the range floor.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6995, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and 0.7000 psych breaks the range and opens the 0.7040 prior range
Failure to hold the 0.6932 range floor resumes the downtrend and exposes the 0.6903 swing low
Sustained trade back above the 0.6970 ema cluster would shift the range bias back toward the top
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC could break the compression either way
13:05 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a range · RSI 52 · price 0.69677
0.6932–0.6995 range with rising lows below 0.7000.
Since the 0.6903 swing low, AUDUSD has moved from its late-September downtrend into a 0.6932–0.6995 range, holding rising lows. The range top has capped price three times near the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg, just below 0.7000 psych. Price has slipped back under EMA20 (~0.6969) and the ema50 (~0.6976), which are converging without a cross, while ATR(14) has compressed to ~15 pips from ~30 in late September. The Michigan sentiment miss and softer yields helped AUD recover late last week, but that move stalled at the cap ahead of RBA minutes and US CPI.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7000 psych clears the range top and the 61.8% retracement cap
Loss of the 0.6932 range floor and the rising lows line reopens the 0.6903 swing low
Reclaim of the ema50 near 0.6976 would turn the H4 EMAs toward a bullish cross
RBA minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: a hawkish tilt against heavy AUD shorts could pressure the 0.7000 cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could end the ATR compression and resolve the range
0.6932–0.6995 range after 0.6903 low; flat lows, rising highs.
The slide from 0.7150 bottomed at the 0.6903 cycle low, and the pair has since built a 0.6932–0.6995 range. Two lows held at the 0.6932 range floor, forming a double bottom, while the highs have stepped up. Price is now pressing the range top just under the 0.7000 round number, near the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg, helped by softer USD and lower US yields. ATR(14) has eased to about 16 pips, and price sits above both EMAs, with EMA20 now over EMA50.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and 0.7000 round number completes the double bottom and opens the 0.7020 prior range
Rejection at the range top and a drop back below the 0.6942 swing low would return focus to the 0.6932 range floor
A break of the 0.6903 cycle low would resume the downtrend sequence
A break below the higher lows trendline would undercut the basing read
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read