AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a flat base · RSI 49 · price 0.69567
Lower highs from the 0.6995 Asia high; 0.6955–0.6960 base since 17:00 UTC.
Monday's London-NY decline from 0.6984 to the 0.6955 day low came as USD extended to a DXY YTD high on haven demand. Through the late NY session and early Asia, price has compressed into a 5-pip base between the day low and the 0.6960 range top. RSI(14) is neutral and ATR is under 2 pips, ahead of the RBA Minutes.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69678
What it said to watch
RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC is the next catalyst for the 0.6955–0.6960 base; a hawkish read on 5.3% inflation expectations would test the short base
M15 close below the 0.6955 day low resumes the London-NY decline toward the 0.6935 band floor
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top exposes the 0.6968 London low, near the 38.2% of the London-NY decline
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into compression · RSI 49 · price 0.69563
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.6995 Asian high, now a 5-pip shelf at the session low.
AUDUSD bled from the 0.6995 Asian high on safe-haven USD demand. London failed at 0.6984 and NY rejection at 0.6975 extended the slide to a 0.6955 session low. Since late NY, price has held a tight 0.6955–0.6960 shelf into the Tuesday Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR under 2 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6975, 0.69838
What it said to watch
RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC (Westpac confidence at 23:30) could break the compression either way
M15 close below the 0.6955 session low reopens the descent toward the 0.6950 round number
Close above the 0.6960 range top and the descending highs line shifts focus to the 0.6975 ny rejection / 50% fib
Reclaim of 0.6984 london high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in tight base · RSI 45 · price 0.69557
Lower highs from Asia peak; 5-pip range above day low.
Monday's 40-pip slide ran from the 0.6995 Asian high and broke the Asian low early in London. It stalled at the 0.6955 day low during NY hours as haven USD demand persisted. Since then price has compressed into a 0.6955–0.6960 range under a descending line of lower highs from the 0.6975 swing high, with the new Asia session just opening.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69599, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6960 range top and the descending line shifts focus to the 0.6975 swing high, which sits at the 50% fib
Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA minutes (00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight base · RSI 44 · price 0.69558
Lower highs from 0.6995 Asia high; flat 5-pip base since late NY.
AUD/USD bled from the 0.6995 Asia high to the 0.6955 session low through London and NY as haven USD demand pushed DXY to YTD highs, with a lower high at 0.6975 and the london high at 0.6984 capping each bounce. Since late NY, price has compressed into a 0.6955–0.6960 base, with ATR near 2 pips into the early Asia session.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69599, 0.69749, 0.69838
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 session low breaks the base and puts the 0.6950 round number in play
Reclaim of the 0.6960 range top, then the 0.6975 lower high, needed to break the lower-highs sequence; the london high at 0.6984 sits above
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC is a minor lead-in
Lower highs from 0.6975; tight 0.6955–0.6960 box above the session low.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6973. NY extended the slide to a 0.6955 session low as haven USD demand lifted DXY to YTD highs. Since 16:45 UTC price has compressed into a 5-pip box below the 0.6960 range top, still capped by the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6968, 0.6973
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top breaks the compression; the 0.6968 london low and 0.6973 asian low sit above
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low confirms a lower low toward the 0.6950 round number and 0.6935 uob support
Close above the lower highs trendline would end the intraday downtrend read
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC, with Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read in thin Asia liquidity
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at day low · RSI 58 · price 0.69589
Lower highs/lows through London and NY, flat 0.6955–0.6960 base since late NY.
AUD broke the Asian low at 0.6973 in London and bled lower through NY after the NY high at 0.6975 was rejected. Haven USD demand had DXY pressing YTD highs near 102.60. Since late NY the pair has held a tight base above the 0.6955 day low, with early Asia capped at a 0.6960 range top and RSI(14) recovering to 58.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69634, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 day low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 0.6950 round number next
Close above the 0.6960 range top and 0.6963 swing high brings the 50% NY leg fib near 0.6965 into view
Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read with AUD positioning heavily net short
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a late-session base · RSI 55 · price 0.69581
Lower highs from 0.6984; tight 0.6955–0.6960 base since late NY.
AUDUSD broke the Asian range low (0.6973) in the first hour of London and kept printing lower highs through NY, capped at the 0.6975 lower high as haven USD demand dominated. Since the late NY session price has based above the 0.6955 day low, with the range top at 0.6960 coinciding with the descending trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR has compressed under 2 pips ahead of RBA minutes.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure at the 0.6955 day low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.6950 round number
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from London; flat 0.6955–0.6960 box since mid-NY.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6973 as oil-driven haven USD demand and hawkish Fed talk lifted DXY. The slide then ran from the 0.6975 lower high to a 0.69546 session low. Since mid-NY the pair has compressed in a 0.6955–0.6960 box, RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 16 pips, with the post-NY rollover thin.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.69648, 0.69731
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69546 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range low
Close above the 0.69596 box top and the fib 50% at 0.69648 would break the London-NY lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the asian low at 0.6973 neutralises the range break
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into rollover · RSI 51 · price 0.69582
Lower highs and lows from 0.6995, now a tight 0.6955–0.6960 range.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.6973. NY extended the lower-high, lower-low chain to a 0.6955 session low as haven USD demand pushed DXY to YTD highs. Price has since compressed in a 4-pip range under the 0.6960 range top into the rollover, pressing the descending trendline from 0.6984.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69749
What it said to watch
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC could break the range in thin Asia liquidity
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top clears the descending trendline. That leaves 0.6975 lower high as the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 0.6950 psych
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled near day low · RSI 46 · price 0.69576
Lower highs from Asia; tight post-NY box 0.6955–0.6960.
London broke the 0.6973 Asian low after a failed push to 0.6995, and NY extended the slide to a 0.6955 day low as haven USD demand lifted DXY to YTD highs. Since mid-NY, price has been boxed between 0.6955 and the 0.6960 range top, capped under the lower-high line from the 0.6975 london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69597, 0.69731, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top and lower-high line opens the 0.6973 Asian low and 38.2% fib of Monday's decline
Break of the 0.6955 day low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6935 uob floor
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC (Westpac confidence 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in thin Asia session liquidity
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into the NY close · RSI 47 · price 0.6958
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; tight base at 0.6955–0.6960.
The Asian high at 0.6995 stalled below 0.7000. London broke the Asian low at 0.6973, and NY extended to a session low at 0.6955 as haven USD demand and a hawkish Fed tone lifted DXY to YTD highs. Since then price has compressed into a 5-pip range between 0.6955 and the 0.6960 range top. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is around 1.6 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69655, 0.69731
What it said to watch
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC (Westpac confidence 23:30 UTC first) could materially shift this read in early Asia session
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top and the falling highs line ends the post-NY compression; the 0.6966 london low is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number
Recovery back above the 0.6973 asian low (near the 38.2% of the day decline fib) would neutralise the London breakdown
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled near day low · RSI 44 · price 0.69576
Lower highs from Asian high, tight range at session low.
Lower highs since the 0.6995 Asian high, with the 0.6975 lower high at 12:00 UTC capping. NY broke the 0.6966 Asian low and pressed to a 0.6955 session low as haven USD demand lifted DXY to YTD highs. Price is now compressed in a 0.6955–0.6960 range under the descending trendline, RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 1.5 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number
Close above the 0.6960 range top and descending trendline opens a retest of the 0.6966 Asian low
Recovery through 0.6966 puts the 38.2% retracement near 0.6970 and the 0.6975 lower high in play
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC could break the compression
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.6956
Lower-high sequence below Asian low; tight 0.6955–0.6960 band.
Sunday's gap-down open was filled in Asia, but lower highs at 0.6995, 0.6984 and the 0.6975 lower high set a descending trendline. NY broke the 0.6966 Asian low as haven USD demand pushed DXY to YTD highs, and price has since compressed between the 0.6955 session low and a 0.6960 range top. RSI(14) sits near 37 and ATR is about 1.6 pips, so intraday ranges are narrow into the session close.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number
Recovery above the 0.6960 range top and back through the 0.6966 Asian low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Descending trendline near 0.6960 caps the range top; a close above it breaks the lower-high sequence
Westpac Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Only the 0.6975 lower high above sits as the next structural reference if minutes trigger short-covering
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.69568
Lower highs and lower lows from Asian high, tight base above NY low.
AUD/USD stalled at 0.6995 in Asia, under 0.7000, then slid through London and NY as USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing and Iran tensions. Price broke the Asian low near 0.6966 and the digest's 0.6960 support. Late NY is compressing in a 4-5 pip band just above the 0.6955 NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 after the selloff.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6960 bounce high and the 0.6966 Asian low would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6955 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward psych 0.6950 and the 0.6935 range floor
Downtrend line from the Asian high through the 0.6975 lower high caps structure; the fib 50% sits at the same level
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) could reset the next Asian range
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.6995 Asian high; late-NY compression at session low.
Lower highs since the 0.6995 Asian high. NY broke the 0.6966 Asian low after a rejection at 0.6975, as USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing and Iran tensions. After London close the decline has stalled into a tight 0.6955–0.6960 box above the session low, capped by the descending trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and ATR under 2 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 0.6960 and back inside the Asian low at 0.6966 would break the lower-high sequence; the 0.6975 NY rejection high is next above
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low extends the decline toward the 0.6950 round number
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) in early Asia could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.69569
Lower highs from the 0.6995 Asia peak; tight 0.6955–0.6960 base.
The week opened with a gap lower from 0.6986. Asia bounced to 0.6995, just shy of 0.7000, and that rally was fully reversed through London and NY in a chain of lower highs, capped by the 0.6975 lower high at midday, as USD firmed on oil, Middle East risk and hike pricing. The slide stalled at the 0.6955 session low, and price has been coiling under the 0.6960 range top for the last eight bars with ATR(14) compressing to about 17 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69597, 0.69658, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.6950 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6960 range top and the 0.6966 fib 38.2 / gap-open zone would break the lower-high sequence
0.6975 lower high is the last swing pivot on the trendline; a close above it voids the intraday downtrend
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.69569
Lower highs from the 0.6995 Asian high; NY broke the Asian low, now a tight 0.6955–0.6960 band in late NY.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs all day from the 0.6995 Asian high as USD turned bid on Iran tensions and hawkish Fed pricing. NY broke the 0.6966 Asian low, capped at the 0.6975 NY spike high, and set a 0.6955 session low. Late NY is now compressing beneath the 0.6960 band top, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6966 Asian low brings the descending resistance line, near 0.6963, into play
Break of the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6935 next support
Recovery above the 0.6975 NY spike high negates the lower-high sequence and the 38.2% retrace cap
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.69564
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia peak; tight late-NY base above the session low.
Asia rallied to 0.6995 but stalled under 0.7000. USD turned bid on Iran tensions and drove a lower-high / lower-low sequence through London and NY to a 0.6955 session low, with the 12:00 UTC lower high at 0.6975 sitting on the 50% retrace. Late NY is now compressing between the session low and the 0.6960 bounce high, RSI(14) near 39, ATR(14) under 2 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 psych level and the 0.6935 range floor
Recovery above the 0.6960 bounce high and the falling trendline would mark the first higher high since London
Only a reclaim of the 0.6975 lower high breaks the intraday downtrend structure; the 0.6995 Asia high caps the range
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high, tight consolidation above the NY session low.
AUD has carved a clean lower-high chain from the 0.6995 Asia high under a descending trendline as USD turned bid on Iran tensions in holiday-thin trade. NY printed a session low at 0.6955, and price has since compressed in a 4-5 pip band below the 0.6960 bounce high. RSI(14) sits near 39, with no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 bounce high breaks the post-low consolidation; the 0.6975 lower high and descending trendline sit near the 50% asia high-low fib
Failure at the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number and 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
Lower highs from Asia peak, Asian low broken, 5-pip range at the lows.
Sunday's gap lower was filled in Asia, but the session high at 0.6995 failed below 0.7000 as USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. London and NY printed lower highs and broke the 0.6966 Asian low during NY hours. Late NY is compressing between the 0.6955 session low and a 0.6960 range top, with RSI(14) near 37 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top ends the consolidation; reclaiming the 0.6966 Asian low near the 23.6% fib of the Asian high to session low drop challenges the downtrend read
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 0.6975 lower high near the 50% fib flips the intraday structure
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Consumer Confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
18:27 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 0.69578
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; tight late-NY range above the session low.
The Sunday gap down was filled in Asia, but the session high at 0.6995 failed below 0.7000. Price has since printed lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, losing the 0.6966 week open and the 0.6960 broken support as the USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. Late NY is compressing just above the 0.6955 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6955 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number and the 0.6935 range floor
Recovery above the 0.6960 broken support and 0.6966 week open (38.2% fib) challenges the lower-highs sequence; the 0.6975 lower high is next
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in early Asia
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia rejection; late-NY consolidation above the session low.
Sunday's gap lower filled in Asia, but the rally was rejected at the 0.6995 Asia high below the 0.7000 cap. London and NY then built a falling trendline of lower highs to a 0.6955 session low as the USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran risk. Late NY is holding just above that low with RSI(14) near 36 and the bar range compressed to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
A close back above the sunday open at 0.6966, near the falling trendline, would break the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 0.6975 lower high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 35 · price 0.69583
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high near 0.7000.
Asia rallied off the 0.6966 gap open to 0.6995, a rejection just shy of 0.7000. A steady chain of lower highs followed through London and NY as USD recovered on Iran tensions and hawkish-Fed pricing. NY broke the gap open and the 0.6960 broken support, printing a 0.6955 session low; the late-NY bounce is shallow with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 gap open and the 0.6960 broken support would stall the lower-low sequence
Break above the 0.6975 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low opens the 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in early Asia
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.69583
Lower highs/lower lows from 0.6995 Asia high; Asian low broken, late-NY bounce off day low.
After the weekend gap down, Asia's rally faded at 0.6995, below 0.7000. The pair has printed lower highs since. London-NY broke the 0.6966 Asian low and extended to a 0.6955 day low in thin US-holiday trade as Iran tensions and hawkish-Fed pricing firmed USD. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the 0.6960 bounce high, under trendline resistance, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.6966, 0.69749
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6966 Asian low and trendline resistance near 0.6965 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6955 day low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Inability to clear the 0.6960 bounce high keeps the down-sequence intact
0.6975 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asia-high move, caps any deeper retracement
Westpac Consumer Confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high, Asian low broken.
Rejection at the 0.6995 Asia high below 0.7000 started a lower-high sequence as USD recovered on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. London broke the 0.6966 asian low and NY extended to a 0.69546 session low, with late-NY bars bouncing toward 0.6959 under the lower-highs line. The 0.69838 prior high and 0.69749 swing high remain the intraday lower highs.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69838
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 asian low and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read
Close above the 0.69749 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.69546 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Consumer Confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia
The Asia high at 0.6995 failed below 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.6984 and 0.6975 and ground to a 0.6955 session low in NY hours, as USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran headlines. RSI(14) near 27 is approaching oversold with no divergence, and the descending trendline sits by the 0.6966 broken low.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6966 broken low and the descending trendline would stall the lower-high sequence.
A reclaim of the 0.6975 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asia high-to-session low drop, would break the downtrend structure.
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number, then the 0.6935 range floor.
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and the RBA Minutes (00:30 UTC Tue) could reset the Asian range.
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; Asian range broken lower.
The Asia high at 0.6995 failed below 0.7000. London then broke the Asian range low near 0.6973, and NY has extended a lower-high, lower-low chain along the descending trendline to a 0.6955 session low as USD firmed on Iran tensions. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, with price below both EMAs and trading through the 0.6960 support area in thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC, in thin US/Canada holiday trade, could extend or reverse the NY move
An M15 close back above the 0.6969 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
The 0.6973–0.6975 zone (Asian range low, london high, fib 50%) is the next area for rejection on any bounce
Failure to hold the 0.6950 round number exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Westpac Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high, trading at session low.
Lower highs since the Asia high at 0.6995 stalled below 0.7000. London broke the Asian range low, and NY rejected the ny high at 0.6975 before grinding to a fresh session low at 0.6957 as USD turned bid on Iran tensions. RSI(14) near 26 with ATR under 3 pips points to a slow bleed in thin holiday trade rather than a flush.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 gap low and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence
Loss of the 0.6950 round number exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Rebound into the 38.2–50% fib zone (0.6971–0.6976) overlaps the ny high, an area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then Westpac 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes 00:30 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.69579
Lower-high chain from 0.6995; weekly open lost, pressing session low.
Asia ran to the 0.6995 asia high but stalled short of 0.7000 again. Every swing since has printed a lower high as the USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions, and thin holiday liquidity has done little to slow the slide. Price broke the 0.6966 weekly open in early NY and is now pressing the 0.6957 session low mid-NY, with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 0.6957, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6957 session low puts the 0.6935 range floor in view
Reclaim of the 0.6966 weekly open undoes the breakdown
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, Westpac 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 0.6995 Asia high; London broke Asian range low, NY extending.
AUD failed below 0.7000 at the 0.69947 asia high. The USD recovery on Iran tensions and hawkish Fed pricing then drove a clean lower-high sequence: 0.69838, then the 0.69749 lower high at 12:00 UTC. Price is now printing a fresh session low at 0.6959 under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 25 in thin US-holiday NY trade.
Support: 0.69586, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 12:30 low at 0.69655 would stall the lower-low sequence
Break of the falling trendline and the 0.69749 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6950 round number extends the move toward the 0.6935 range floor
Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC, Westpac 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high, pressing session low.
The Asia high at 0.6995 was rejected below 0.7000 as USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. Price has stepped lower through London and NY hours in a lower high chain (0.6984, 0.6975) and now sits on the 0.6960 session low. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is about 3 pips in holiday-thin US trade.
Support: 0.69599, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 0.6960 session low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.6966 prior low would show the slide stalling
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then Westpac Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; NY extending the sequence to fresh session lows.
The weekend gap filled in Asia, with a run to the 0.6995 asia high. London open then broke the Asian range low near 0.6973 as USD firmed on Iran tensions and the Fed's hawkish tilt. In thin, holiday-affected NY hours the 0.6975 lower high was rejected at 12:00 UTC, the 0.6970 prior shelf has flipped to resistance, and price is pressing the 0.6961 session low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.6961, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then Westpac at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.6961 session low and the 0.6960 area exposes the 0.6935 range floor
M15 close back above the 0.6970 prior shelf stalls the selloff; above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
The 0.6995 asia high caps the window; it stays out of reach unless the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asia-high selloff is reclaimed
Lower highs since the 0.6995 Asia peak (the 0.6984 swing high, then the 0.6975 lower high at 12:00 UTC) have driven a steady slide. The first hours of NY have now taken out the Asian low and Monday open at 0.6966, printing a session low near 0.6963 just above the 0.6960 round number. A firm USD on the hawkish Fed and Iran risk is the driver in thin, US-holiday trade; RSI(14) at ~34 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69838
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6966 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6960 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 0.6995 Asia high; fresh session low below Monday open.
The Asia high at 0.6995 started a lower-high, lower-low sequence. The USD firmed in the London session on Middle East tensions and capped the 0.6984 swing high, then the 0.6975 lower high at 12:00 UTC. Price has slipped under the Monday open at 0.6966 to a 0.6964 session low in thin, holiday-hit NY hours, with RSI(14) near 38, not stretched.
Support: 0.69635, 0.6960, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69838
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.6984 swing high next above
Failure to hold 0.6960 near-term support exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, Westpac Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.6995 Asia high; price back at the 0.6966 weekend gap open.
Monday's holiday-thinned session has unwound the whole Asia rally from 0.6995. USD firmed in Europe on Middle East tensions, leaving lower highs at the 0.6984 swing high and the 0.6975 lower high, with broken lows near 0.6970 capping bounces. The 0.6965 session low, at the weekend gap open, is under test with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips in quiet US-holiday NY hours.
Support: 0.69647, 0.6960, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.69749, 0.69838
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6965 session low and the 0.6960 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the descending trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Repeated rejection at the 0.6970 broken lows keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.69664
LH/LL chain from 0.6995; testing Asian range low.
The Asia spike to the 0.6995 Asia high was rejected just under 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at the 0.6984 prior high and the 0.6975 swing high, under a descending trendline, as USD recovered on oil and Middle East headlines. Price is now pressing the 0.6966 Asian low (Sunday's open) and the 0.6965 session low in thin US-holiday NY trade, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 0.69652, 0.6966, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6965 session low and 0.6966 Asian low exposes the 0.6960 round number
Fib 38.2% of the Asia-high decline sits near 0.6977, close to the swing high
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.6967
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.6995 Asia high, testing session low.
Asia high at 0.6995 stalled just shy of 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.6984 (london high) and 0.6975, where a lower high was rejected at 12:00 UTC, as the USD recovered on Middle East and oil headlines. Price is back at the 0.6966 session low and Sunday open in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 41 and ranges compressed on thin US-holiday volume.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6960 support zone
Close back above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC, then Westpac Confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery toward the 0.6984 london high and 0.6995 asia high requires the 0.6975 cap to give way first
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into NY · RSI 44 · price 0.6967
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high.
The Asian high at 0.6995 stalled just shy of 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: a swing high at 0.6984 and a lower high at 0.6975, the latter rejected outright in the late London session. Price is pressing the 0.6966 session low in the first hour of NY, below both EMAs, on haven USD demand and holiday-thin liquidity.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6984 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6960 round number
Recovery above the 0.6995 Asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; Westpac confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes 00:30 UTC Tue could reset the range
13:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.69681
LH/LL chain from 0.6995 Asian high; fresh session low 0.6966 in early NY.
Monday gapped down from Friday's 0.6986 close. The Asian rally met rejection at the 0.6995 Asian high, just under the 0.7000 cap. Since then the pair has printed a chain of lower highs at 0.6984 and 0.6975, along with a new session low at 0.6966 in the early NY session, as haven USD demand returned on Middle East headlines. RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips reflect thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low exposes the 0.6960 round number
A move back through the 0.6984 swing high would put the 0.6995 Asian high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
13:03 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, momentum moderate · RSI 41 · price 0.69678
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.6995 Asian high; testing Monday gap-open area.
AUDUSD gapped about 20 pips lower at the Monday open, rallied to an Asian high at 0.6995 that stalled below 0.7000, then printed lower highs through London (0.6984 swing high, 0.6975 lower high). Early NY hours tagged a new session low at 0.6966, at the gap-open area, in holiday-thinned trade, with RSI(14) near 41 and no oversold reading.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Acceptance below the 0.6966 session low exposes the 0.6960 round number, flagged as support in the digest
Recovery through the 0.6984 swing high puts the 0.6995 Asian high and 0.7000 back in focus
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC), Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.69691
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; late-London sweep of the lows.
The Asian high at 0.6995 stalled short of the 0.7000 cap. Price has since stepped lower through a 0.6984 swing high and a 0.6975 lower high, losing the 0.6970 support named in the digest. The 12:30 UTC bar swept the 0.6968 lows to a 0.6966 session low and closed back near 0.6970, ahead of a thin NY session with the US on holiday.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6966 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6960 round number
A reclaim of the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Asian high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thinned NY session liquidity can exaggerate moves
Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA minutes (00:30 UTC) could reset the Asian range
12:32 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, pressing session low · RSI 39 · price 0.6968
Monday's gap lower to the 0.6966 monday open filled in Asia, where the asia high at 0.6995 capped price shy of 0.7000 as the digest describes. Price has printed lower highs since, at the 0.6984 london high and a 0.6975 lower high rejected early in NY, and is now sitting on the 0.6968 session low. US holiday liquidity is thin and ATR is only about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 monday open extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6960 uob support
Close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline; the 0.6984 london high is the next cap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin US-holiday trade could shift this read
RBA minutes Tue 00:30 UTC carry squeeze risk with heavy AUD spec shorts
Lower highs from 0.6995 Asia top; triple-tested London low, early bounce.
The Asia rally after the weekend gap filled and topped at 0.6995, short of 0.7000. London then printed lower highs down to a 0.6968 london low, tested three times, and price is now lifting into thin holiday NY hours, probing the 0.6975 bounce high near the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69781, 0.69838
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6978 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.6984 swing high
Failure at the 0.6975 bounce high keeps the London downtrend intact
Loss of the 0.6968 london low re-exposes the 0.6966 gap open
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.69698
Lower highs since Asia high; London broke below the Asian range and is basing at 0.6968.
AUDUSD was rejected at the 0.6995 asian high short of 0.7000, then sold through the 0.6973 asian low at London open as USD recovered on haven demand. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 3-pip band above the 0.6968 session low, with the 06:30 swing high at 0.6984 and the falling trendline capping. ATR near 2.3 pips points to thin, holiday-affected trade.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6968 session low and 0.6966 weekly open extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6960
Reclaim of the 0.6973 asian low and falling trendline would break the lower-high chain; 0.6984 swing high aligns with the 61.8% fib
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC, with US holiday-thin liquidity; RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, now a tight base above 0.6967.
Asia filled the weekend gap and ran to an asian high at 0.6995, where it met rejection short of 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs into the London session, sliding to the 0.6967 friday low on softer AUD risk tone. Price is now compressing in a 3–4 pip band above that floor with RSI(14) near 40, and the US holiday leaves NY liquidity thin.
Support: 0.69672, 0.6966, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6967 friday low exposes the 0.6966 gap open and the 0.6960 round number
Recovery above the 0.6973 range top and the 0.6978 38.2% asian high fib would break the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.6984 swing high next
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 0.6995 asian high, just shy of 0.7000, set up the decline. London then broke the 0.6973 asian low and printed a 0.6968 session low. Price is coiling in a 3-pip band just above the Sunday gap open at 0.6966, with ATR(14) compressed near 2 pips in thin trade as the US is on holiday.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6968 session low and 0.6966 gap open extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6960 support zone
Reclaim of the 0.6973 asian low and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the downtrend read; london high at 0.6984 aligns with the 61.8% retrace of the asian high decline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC, ahead of RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, could break the current compression
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia high, tight base above weekly open.
Monday's gapped weekly open at 0.6966 rallied to an Asia high of 0.6995 on softer US yields, stalling short of 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed a lower-high/lower-low chain through 0.6984 (swing high) and 0.6973 (lower high). Mid-London it is compressing in a 4-pip band just above the 0.6968 London low, with RSI(14) near 31 and holiday-thin US liquidity.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 weekly open extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6960 area
Reclaim of the 0.6973 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Fib 50% near 0.6981 sits just under the 0.6984 swing high; recovery stalling there keeps the move corrective
Asia high at 0.6995 caps the session range below 0.7000
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US holiday liquidity could exaggerate any reaction
Lower highs and lower lows from Asia session high; London holding just above gap open.
Since the 0.6995 session high stalled short of 0.7000 in Asia, AUDUSD has printed lower highs. The 0.6984 swing high capped the only bounce, and London broke the 0.6973 prior low. Price is grinding just above the 0.6968 session low and the 0.6966 gap open in thin US-holiday trade, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR at roughly 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 gap open and Friday's 0.6967 low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.6935–0.6960 zone
Recovery above the 0.6973 prior low and the lower-highs trendline (~0.6975) would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Reclaiming the 0.6984 swing high, near the 61.8% retrace of the session high-low move, would mark a structural shift
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could move USD in thin holiday liquidity; RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC are the next major AUD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; London broke the Asian range low.
Monday's gap lower at the 0.6966 weekly open filled in early Asia. The session high then stalled at 0.6995, below 0.7000, as AUD stayed capped despite softer US yields. London broke the 0.6973 Asia low and extended the lower-high chain to a 0.6968 session low near Friday's trough, with RSI(14) near 31 and bar ranges compressing in holiday-thin trade.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 asia low invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.6968 session low and the 0.6966 weekly open confirms another lower-low
Recovery through the 0.6984 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near Monday's gap low · RSI 29 · price 0.69685
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-session high; Asian low broken in London.
AUD filled the weekend gap in Asia but was rejected at the 0.6995 session high just short of 0.7000. London has since broken the 0.6973 Asian low under a falling trendline, and price now sits on the 0.6966 gap low where Monday opened. RSI(14) is near 29 with ATR around 2.8 pips in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.6995
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6973 Asian low and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.6966 gap low exposes 0.6960 support
A reclaim of the 0.6984 swing high, near the 50% fade retracement, would undo the London fade
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then RBA Minutes at Tue 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London, testing gap open.
Monday's Asia rebound from the 0.6966 gap open faded at the 0.6995 Asia high, just shy of 0.7000, as the USD steadied in Europe on pre-CPI caution. London broke the 0.6973 Asia low and has printed lower highs down to a 0.6968 session low, with RSI(14) near 23 and thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.69678, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 gap open extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 0.6973 Asia low and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the London downtrend read
0.6984 swing high sits at the 61.8% retrace of the Asia high leg; a reclaim would put the 0.6995 Asia high back in view
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC, then Westpac confidence 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, could shift this read
10:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.69692
Lower highs from 0.6995; London broke the Asia low, now pressing Friday low.
Asia filled the weekly open gap and printed a session high at 0.6995, a rejection just short of the 0.7000 psych mark as caution built ahead of US CPI. London has since sold through the asia low at 0.6973 after a lower high at 0.6984. Price now sits on the london low at 0.6969, a few pips above the friday low (0.6967) and the weekly open (0.6966), RSI(14) near 24 and ATR(14) about 3 pips in holiday-thin trade.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69672, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the friday low at 0.6967 and the weekly open at 0.6966 extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the asia low at 0.6973 would put the 38.2% retrace of the Asia high move (~0.6979) and the downtrend line in play
Lower high at 0.6984 caps the sequence; a close above it breaks the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC is the larger AUD risk
Lower highs from Asian high, Asian range broken lower at London open.
The weekend gap was filled early in the Asia session. The pair then stalled at the 0.6995 Asian high, short of 0.7000, as caution built ahead of US CPI, and has printed lower highs since. London broke the 0.6973 Asian low and set a 0.6969 session low; price is now compressing just above it, with ATR near 3 pips in holiday-thin liquidity (Japan, US and Canada out).
Support: 0.69689, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 Asian low negates the range break and puts the 0.6984 swing high and the 38.2% fib back in view
Failure to hold the 0.6969 session low exposes the Friday low at 0.6967 and the weekend gap low at 0.6966
Lower highs trendline from the Asian high caps the structure; a break above it turns the read neutral
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian high at 0.6995 remains the cap below the 0.7000 psych level
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, sequence of lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.69702
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.6995 Asia high; London extended to a fresh session low.
Monday's gap fill ran out at the 0.6995 asia high, a rejection just shy of 0.7000. Price has printed lower highs since, and London broke the 0.6973 prior low to a 0.6969 session low, with RSI(14) near 31. Thin holiday liquidity (Japan, US and Canada out) and caution ahead of US CPI have kept the slide orderly, with the friday low at 0.6967 just below.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6969 session low and the 0.6967 friday low extends the lower-low chain below Monday's 0.6966 gap open
A reclaim of the 0.6973 prior low plus a close above the lower-highs trendline (~0.6978) weakens the downtrend read; 0.6979 is the 38.2% fib of the asia high–session low drop
A close back above the 0.6984 swing high puts the 0.6995 asia high and 0.7000 back in play
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; US holiday liquidity is thin, so moves may be sharp
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC, ahead of Tuesday's RBA Minutes, could reset the session structure
09:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 38 · price 0.69715
Lower highs and lower lows off 0.6995; London at new session low.
Monday opened with a ~20-pip gap down. Asia then filled it and pushed to a 0.6995 asia high before rejection just shy of 0.7000. Since then the pair has printed lower highs (0.6984 lower high), and London broke the 0.6973 low to a fresh session low at 0.6969 on a holiday-thin tape, with price now sitting just above the 0.6966 monday open and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.69689, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 broken low would stall the lower-low sequence; reclaiming the 0.6984 lower high negates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6969 session low and the 0.6966 monday open exposes Friday's 0.6967 low area and extends the London leg
Thin liquidity with US, Japan and Canada on holiday; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.69695
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.6995 Asia high; 0.6973 swing low broken in London.
Asia dip-buying stalled at 0.6995, short of 0.7000. Early London capped the bounce at 0.6984, putting in a lower high, then broke the 0.6973 swing low, and price is now pressing the 0.6967 Friday low where Sunday's gap-open sits. RSI(14) near 31 is not yet stretched, and the descending trendline from the Asia high is intact.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6945
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.6995
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 broken low negates the range break
Close above the 0.6984 london high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6967 friday low exposes the 0.6945 range floor
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.69703
Asian range low broken in London; LH 0.6984, LL 0.6970.
Sunday's gap down filled within the hour. Asia then ran to the 0.6995 Asian high before rejection short of 0.7000, and price has printed lower highs since, with 0.6984 the latest. London broke the Asian low at 0.6973 and pressed to 0.6970 with RSI(14) near 34, despite a softer USD in thin US/Japan/Canada holiday trade.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6984, 0.6995
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the 0.6973 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Loss of the 0.6967 Friday low exposes the 0.6950 round number
M15 close above the 0.6984 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC, then Westpac 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could shift this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.69715
Asian range broken lower in London; LH 0.6984, LL 0.6971.
After the weekend gap filled, the Asia push stalled at the 0.6995 Asian high short of 0.7000. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.6984, and London broke the 0.6973 Asian low to a 0.6971 session low. The descending trendline is intact in thin holiday trade, with the friday low at 0.6967 the next reference below; RSI(14) is near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69705, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 asian low turns the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6971 session low exposes the 0.6967 friday low and Monday's opening print
Close above the 0.6984 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and Westpac Consumer Confidence 23:30 UTC could shift USD and AUD tone into RBA Minutes
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.69716
Lower high at 0.6984, early-London break below 0.6973 swing low.
AUD faded from the 0.6995 Asia high short of 0.7000 despite softer US yields. A rejection at the 0.6984 lower high before London led to a break of the 0.6973 swing low (now the broken low) in early London, with price pressing the 0.6970 round number. RSI(14) sits near 35 and ATR is about 3.4 pips in holiday-thin trade, with Japan, US and Canada out.
Support: 0.6970, 0.69672, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69731, 0.69838, 0.69947
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.6970 round number exposes the 0.6967 friday low and the 0.6966 monday open
An M15 close back above the 0.6973 broken low marks the break as a false break
Recovery through the 0.6984 lower high and the 50–61.8% fib zone negates the lower-high sequence; the 0.6995 asia high caps above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and thin US-holiday liquidity could distort NY-session moves
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia high, lower highs intact · RSI 43 · price 0.69776
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; bounce from the swing low stalled at the 50% fib.
The weekend gap down to the 0.6966 gap low filled quickly in the Asia session. The rally then met rejection at the 0.69947 Asia high, just shy of 0.7000 psych, as softer yields failed to extend AUD's gains. Lower highs since then took price to the 0.69731 swing low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.69838 bounce high near the 50% fib, so early London is drifting near 0.6978 below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69731, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.69731 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
M15 close above the 0.69838 bounce high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.69947 Asia high
Thin liquidity with US, Japan and Canada on holiday can exaggerate moves; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs since Asia session high; early London holding inside the Asian range.
AUDUSD filled the weekend gap in early Asia and set a session high at 0.6995, just shy of the 0.7000 psych cap, before fading on holiday-thinned liquidity as softer US yields failed to extend the move. Lower highs since. The first hour of London is holding a london low at 0.6976 above the 0.6973 swing low, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, and capped by the 0.6984 swing high.
Support: 0.6976, 0.6973, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6973 swing low breaks the Asia rally fib's 61.8% and exposes the 0.6967 friday low.
M15 close above the 0.6984 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 psych.
Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could shift this read in thin holiday trade.
07:32 UTC
Intraday down-drift, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 0.69777
Lower highs from 0.6995 asia high; compressing 0.6973–0.6984 into early London.
The Monday gap below Friday's 0.6986 close filled in early Asia, but the asia high at 0.6995 stalled short of 0.7000 as AUD stayed capped on thin holiday liquidity. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and the London open brought a rejection at 0.6984, the 50% retrace of the Asia drop. Price at 0.6978 sits below EMA20/50 and above the 0.6973 swing low.
Support: 0.69731, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.69881, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6973 swing low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.6967 friday low
M15 close above the 0.6984 lower high breaks the down-drift and puts the 0.6988 friday high and 0.6995 asia high back in play
US/Canada/Japan holidays keep liquidity thin; Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD late session
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) is the next high-impact AUD risk
07:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 42 · price 0.69783
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.6995 Asia high; mid-range at London open.
The weekend gap down to 0.6966 filled early in Asia and price ran to a 0.6995 Asia high, stalling under the 0.7000 psych cap on softer US yields. Lower highs then took it to a 0.6973 session low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.6984 lower high, right on the 50% retrace, and London is opening mid-range with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69731, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6984 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6995 Asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.6973 session low exposes the 0.6967 Friday low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes on Tue at 00:30 UTC could reset the range
Holiday-thin US/Canada liquidity keeps ATR near 3 pips, so moves may stay compressed
07:03 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 50 · price 0.69818
Asian range 0.6966–0.6995; bounce capped at 0.6984 lower high into London open.
The weekend gap to the 0.6966 Asian low filled quickly, and Asia ran to a 0.6995 Asian high before fading to a 0.6973 swing low as the 0.7000 psych cap held. London opens mid-range. The bounce stalled twice at the 0.6984 lower high, which sits on the 50% pullback fib, with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.69731, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6984 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.6995 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6973 swing low exposes the 0.6966 Asian low and the gap origin
0.7000 psych remains the cap noted in the digest; a clean break changes the range read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then RBA Minutes at Tue 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:48 UTC
Asia pullback from 0.6995, rebound now stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.69817
Lower highs off the 0.6995 Asian high, short higher-low chain off 0.6973.
Asia opened with a ~20-pip gap below Friday's 0.6986 close. The gap filled on softer US yields and price ran to the 0.6995 Asian high before rejection under 0.7000 psych. The slide to a 0.6973 session low has since retraced to the 38.2–50% fib zone at 0.6981–0.6984 into London open, with price sitting on EMA50 and RSI neutral near 51.
Support: 0.6979, 0.69731, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69839, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6984 (50% fib) reopens the 0.6995 Asian high and 0.7000 psych
Loss of the rebound line and the 0.6979 swing low exposes the 0.6973 session low, then the 0.6967 Friday low
London open volatility could extend the current Asian range of 0.6966–0.6995
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) ahead of Tuesday's RBA Minutes could shift this read
Asia rejection at 0.6995, lower-high sequence into 0.6973, now recovering mid-range.
Sunday's gap down to 0.6966 filled early in Asia, but the rally was rejected at the 0.6995 Asia high, just under the 0.7000 psych, as AUD stalled near a two-week high on softer US yields. A lower-high slide hit a 0.6973 session low, and price is back above the 0.6979 shelf into London open. It sits between the 38.2% and 50% of the Asia high-low fib, marginally above both EMAs.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6973, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6988 friday high reopens the 0.6995 asia high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6979 shelf re-exposes the 0.6973 session low, then the 0.6967 friday low near the gap open
Rejection at the 50–61.8% of the Asia high-low fib (0.6984–0.6986) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, then Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could shift this read
06:18 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, bounce in progress · RSI 44 · price 0.69786
Lower highs from 0.6995 session high, bounce off 0.6973 low.
Sunday's ~20-pip opening gap filled inside two hours. Asia then printed a 0.6995 session high, a near two-week high on softer US yields, before rejection under the 0.7000 psych. Lower highs pulled price to a 0.6973 session low; it is now bouncing back toward the 0.6982 Asia shelf (38.2% fib) ahead of London open, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.69731, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69825, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6982 Asia shelf / 38.2% fib reopens the 0.6995 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6973 session low exposes the Friday low at 0.6967
London open liquidity and Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) could shift the read; RBA Minutes follow Tue 00:30 UTC
Monday gap filled, Asia high 0.69947 capped; 0.6980 shelf lost, lower highs into 0.69731 session low.
Monday's gap open at 0.6966 filled quickly through the fri close at 0.69855. The rally then stalled at a 0.69947 session high, with supply capping it under 0.7000 even as softer US yields gave AUD a lift. Since then a chain of lower highs has broken the 0.6980 prior shelf and printed a 0.69731 session low near the 78.6% fib, and late Asia session price is holding around the 61.8% level with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.69731, 0.69672, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6981 prior shelf breaks the lower-highs trendline read and reopens the fri close at 0.69855
Failure to hold the 0.69731 session low exposes the 0.69672 friday low and 0.6966 gap open
London open liquidity may extend or reverse the late Asia lower-highs sequence
0.69947 session high and 0.7000 psych remain the upper cap; RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a rejected Asia rally · RSI 32 · price 0.69751
Lower highs from the 0.69947 session high, fresh session low at 0.69731.
Asia opened on a ~20-pip gap down at 0.6966. Price filled back to the 0.69855 friday close on the softer-USD tone from Friday's UoM miss and printed a 0.69947 session high, then met rejection below the 0.6990 cap. Lower highs since then broke the 0.6982 asia shelf and the 61.8% of the asia rally fib, putting in a 0.69731 session low with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.69731, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.69731 session low exposes the 0.69672 friday low and the 0.6966 gap open
M15 close back above the 0.6982 asia shelf breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 0.69855 friday close back into view
London open within the hour; Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, fading from session high · RSI 38 · price 0.69756
Gap filled, lower highs into swing low.
Asia session closed Monday's ~20-pip weekend gap and ran to a 0.6995 session high on the softer-USD tone after Friday's UoM miss. Price was rejected below 0.7000 and has since slipped to 0.6976, under the 61.8% fib and the 0.6982 shelf. Lower highs along the descending trendline now press the 0.6974 swing low, with the Friday high at 0.6988 the nearer cap.
Support: 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.6988, 0.6995
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6974 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6967 Friday low
Recovery above the 0.6982 shelf and the descending trendline neutralises the fade from the session high
London open in ~2h is likely to set the next session range
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection below 0.7000, micro range broken lower, testing 61.8% retrace.
Asia opened with a gap down to the 0.6966 asian low that filled fast. Price ran to a 0.6995 asian high on the softer-USD, lower-yield tone, then stalled in a rejection just under the 0.7000 round number. Lower highs since; late Asia broke the 0.6979–0.6983 range and now sits on the 61.8% of the asian leg fib near 0.6977, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6974, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6983 range top negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6974 fri pivot exposes the 0.6966 asian low and gap open
Reclaim of the lower highs line toward the 0.6995 asian high reopens the 0.7000 round number
London open in ~2h typically expands on the ~24-pip ATR; Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC adds USD risk
04:47 UTC
Pullback within Asia session rally, momentum fading · RSI 37 · price 0.69813
Weekend gap filled, rejection below 0.7000, now consolidating on 50% retracement.
Monday's 20-pip weekend gap down to 0.6966 was filled early in the Asia session as the softer USD carried AUDUSD to a 0.6995 session high, where supply capped it shy of the 0.7000 psych level. Price has since slipped back to the 50% fib of that move and is compressing near 0.6981 into the London open, RSI(14) in the high 30s and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69791, 0.69772, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69869, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6979 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.6977 and the 0.6966 gap low
M15 close above the 0.6987 lower high reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 psych
London open could break the tight 0.6979–0.6983 Asia compression
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) are the next scheduled AUD swing factor
Asia opened with a gap down to 0.6966 that filled within the hour. Softer USD after Friday's UoM miss lifted the pair through the Friday high to a 0.6995 session high, but it met rejection below the 0.7000 round number. Price has since retraced to the 50% fib of the Asia rally, with a 0.6979 swing low, and is compressing just under EMA20 and EMA50 with descending highs overhead.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending highs line and 0.6988 Friday high reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6979 swing low breaks the 50% retracement and exposes the 0.6967 Friday low near the gap open
London open in ~2.5h is likely to set the next range away from the tight Asian compression
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) are the larger AUD swing risk against crowded short positioning
04:17 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally stalled below 0.7000 · RSI 40 · price 0.69821
Asia opened on a gap down to 0.6966 that filled fast, with the softer USD lifting price through the Friday high to the 0.6995 asia high before rejection below the 0.7000 psych level. Late in the Asia session, price has retraced to the 50% fib near 0.6980 and is basing just above the 0.6979 swing low, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6979 swing low breaks the 50% fib and brings the 0.6966 open low back into view
Recovery above the 0.6988 friday high would break the lower highs and reopen the 0.6995 asia high
0.7000 psych remains the upper marker; supply capped price just below it overnight
London open in under 3h is likely to set the next session range
Westpac Consumer Confidence (23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) are the next AUD catalysts
Lower highs from 0.6995 session high, holding mid-fib.
Asia session opened with a ~20-pip gap down to the 0.6966 gap low. The gap was filled within the first hour, extending Friday's softer-USD bounce after the UoM miss, and price briefly cleared Friday's 0.6988 high to a 0.6995 session high before rejection beneath the 0.7000 round number. A run of lower highs since 01:00 UTC has pulled price back below the 0.6986 friday close to 0.6981, sitting on the 50% fib with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6977, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6979 pullback low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.6977, then the 0.6966 gap low
M15 close back above the 0.6986 friday close and the lower highs line reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 round number
Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for this read
Lower highs since 0.6995 rejection, opening uptrend line broken.
Monday's open gapped about 20 pips lower to 0.6966. The gap was filled within the first hour and the rally ran to a 0.6995 session high, but supply capped it below 0.7000 psych and the push above Friday's high failed. The Asia session has since slid back under the Friday close and the 50% fib, breaking the opening uptrend line, with price now holding the 0.6979 pullback low and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69791, 0.6977, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69855, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6979 pullback low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.6977, then the 0.6966 gap low
Recapture of the 0.6986 Friday close reopens a test of the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 psych
Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Westpac confidence (23:30 UTC) ahead of Tuesday's RBA Minutes could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 42 · price 0.69806
False break above Friday high, lower highs off 0.6995.
Asia gapped down to 0.6966, filled the gap and pushed through the 0.6988 Friday high to a 0.6995 session high, but was rejected short of the 0.7000 round number. Price has retraced to the 50% fib of the Asia rally near 0.6980 and is sitting on the session low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 42, as AUD stays capped under 0.7000 ahead of Tuesday's RBA Minutes.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6974, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6979 session low opens the 61.8% fib at 0.6977 and the 0.6974 gap retest area
Loss of 0.6974 brings the 0.6966 gap low back into play
Reclaim of the 0.6988 Friday high and the pullback trendline negates the false break read
London open in ~4h may test either end of the 0.6966–0.6995 session range
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend gap filled, false break above friday high, pullback to 50% retrace.
Asia session filled the weekend gap off the 0.6966 open low and ran to a 0.6995 session high on the softer-USD tone, with rejection short of the 0.7000 round number. Price has since slipped back under the friday high at 0.6988 and is sitting on the 50% retrace near 0.6980, with lower highs since the peak and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.69742, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6988 friday high negates the false break and reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6974 swing low (61.8% retrace zone) exposes the 0.6966 open low
Lower-highs trendline from the 0.6995 session high caps price while intact
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and Westpac Confidence 23:30 UTC; RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Asia gap-fill rally, pausing below session high · RSI 51 · price 0.69862
Pullback from 0.6995 session high, back under Friday high.
Monday's ~20-pip gap down to 0.6966 was filled within the first two hours of the Asia session as the softer USD after Friday's UoM miss carried over. The push reached a 0.6995 session high, short of 0.7000 psych, before rejection. Price has since slipped back under Friday's 0.6988 prior high and sits on the 0.6985 pullback low, RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.69851, 0.69832, 0.69672
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6988 prior high reopens the 0.6995 session high and 0.7000 psych
Loss of the 0.6985 pullback low and 0.6983 swing low puts the 38.2% of the gap rally fib in play, with the 0.6967 friday low below
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Gap filled, false break above Friday high, lower lows since 0.6995.
Monday opened with a ~20-pip gap down to the 0.6966 gap low, filled within the first hour on the softer-USD tone after Friday's UoM miss. The Asia session then cleared Friday's 0.6988 prior high to a session high at 0.6995, met rejection under the 0.7000 round number, and has slipped back below the prior high with lower lows since 01:00 UTC. RSI(14) ~54, price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.69832, 0.69803, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6983 swing low (38.2% of the Asia rally) exposes the fib 50% at 0.6980
Close back above 0.6988 prior high and 0.6995 session high puts the 0.7000 round number back in play
Loss of 0.6980 would leave the 0.6966 gap low as the next reference
Westpac Consumer Confidence Mon 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC is the USD risk during NY hours
Weekend gap filled, break of Friday high, now retesting it.
The Asia session opened with a roughly 20-pip gap down to a 0.6966 gap low. That gap was filled within two hours, and price pushed through the 0.6988 Friday high to a 0.6995 session high on the softer-USD tone. Rejection there has price retesting the Friday high, with the 0.6983 swing low sitting near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 0.6988, 0.6983, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6983 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and turns the Friday high break into a false break
Reclaim of the 0.6995 session high puts the 0.7000 psych level back in play
Thin early-Asia liquidity; RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) remain the main AUD event risk this week
01:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the gap low, momentum cooling · RSI 57 · price 0.69874
HH/HL chain since Asia open, now pulling back from the session high to retest the Friday high.
Asia opened on a weekend gap down to the 0.6966 gap low. The gap fill at Friday's 0.6986 close was done by 23:00 UTC, helped by the softer USD tone after Friday's weak UoM print. Price then cleared Friday's 0.6988 high but was rejected at a 0.6995 session high just under 0.7000 psych, and it is now retesting the gap-fill area with RSI(14) easing to ~57.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69832, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.6986 gap fill keeps the Asia HH/HL chain intact; a close below the 0.6983 swing low (38.2% fib) breaks it
M15 close above the 0.6995 session high puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
Loss of 0.6974 reopens the 0.6966 gap low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and RBA Minutes on Tue 00:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this read
Asia session erased the weekend gap down to the 0.6966 gap low and broke Friday's 0.6988 prior high, carrying the softer-USD tone after the UoM miss. Higher lows hold at 0.6974, 0.6981 and the 0.6983 swing low. The 0.6995 session high sits just under the 0.7000 psych cap flagged in the macro read, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.6988, 0.6983, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69947, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6988 prior high returns price to Friday's range
Break of the 0.6983 swing low ends the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above 0.7000 psych opens the 0.7020 range top
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC, then RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, could shift this read
HH/HL chain off Monday gap low, Friday high broken.
Monday opened with a gap about 19 pips lower to the 0.6966 gap low. The gap filled within the first hour on the softer-USD tone carried over from Friday's UoM miss. Early Asia session has extended a rising trendline of higher lows through the 0.6988 prior high to 0.6991, RSI(14) at 64, with the 0.7000 psych level 9 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69881, 0.69832, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Rejection at 0.7000 psych vs an M15 close above it, which opens the 0.7020 range top
Break below the 0.6983 swing low and rising trendline negates the HH/HL chain; 38.2% of the gap-low leg sits near 0.6981
Failure to hold 0.6988 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend gap filled, higher lows through Asia session.
Monday's Asia session gapped down to 0.6966 and filled the gap within the first hour, with the Monday rally now holding higher lows along the session trendline to a session high of 0.6990, marginally above the 0.6988 friday high. AUD is firm on a softer USD after Friday's UoM sentiment miss, with the 0.7000 psych level directly overhead.
Support: 0.69881, 0.69832, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69904, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6988 friday high puts price back inside Friday's range
M15 close below the 0.6983 higher low and session trendline breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; the 0.6966 gap low then comes back into view
Acceptance above the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.6990 session high extends the Monday rally toward 0.7020
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Uptrend off Monday gap, stalling at highs · RSI 58 · price 0.69874
Gap down filled; marginal break above Friday high.
Early Asia session opened with a ~20-pip gap down to the 0.6966 monday open, which was filled within the first hour as the softer-USD tone after Friday's 46.3 UoM miss carried over. Price then printed a 0.6989 session high just above Friday's 0.6988 top and is holding just under it, with the 0.6986 friday close and 0.6983 swing low beneath. RSI(14) is around 58, cooled from the gap-rally push.
Support: 0.69855, 0.69832, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 session high confirms the breakout and opens the 0.7000 round number
Slip back below the 0.6986 friday close and the 0.6983 swing low would turn the push above Friday's high into a false break
Loss of the gap rally line puts the 50% gap rally fib near 0.6978 in play; the 0.6966 monday open is the gap-rally origin
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC is the main scheduled AUD risk; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the nearer USD headline
00:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend after gap fill · RSI 60 · price 0.69884
Higher lows off 0.6966 gap open, pressing Friday high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a ~19-pip gap lower to the 0.6966 gap low. The gap was filled within two hours, and a chain of rising lows has carried price to a 0.6989 session high, marginally above Friday's 0.6988 peak and into the 0.6990–0.7000 cap that held after Friday's yield-led rally. RSI(14) near 60 shows no stretch; the 0.6983 pullback low is the nearest higher low.
Support: 0.69832, 0.69742, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 session high clears Friday's high and puts 0.7000 psych in view
Break of the 0.6983 pullback low and the rising lows trendline shifts focus to the 0.6974 swing low, aligned with the 61.8% gap rally fib
Loss of the 0.6966 gap low would undo the gap fill entirely
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC is the next scheduled AUD driver
00:04 UTC
Recovery after weekend gap, stalling below prior high · RSI 52 · price 0.69838
Gap fully filled, capped under Friday high.
Asia session opened Monday with a ~20-pip gap down to the 0.6966 gap low. The gap was fully filled within two hours, but the rally met rejection at 0.6987, just under the 0.6988 Friday high. Price is now consolidating above the 0.6981 swing low with RSI(14) near 52, and with no fresh weekend drivers the move reads as a mechanical gap-fill rather than a news-led one.
Support: 0.6981, 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6988 Friday high opens the 0.7000 round number, the cap flagged into Friday's close
Loss of the 0.6981 swing low exposes the 0.6976 fib 50% of the gap-fill leg
A return below the 0.6966 gap low would undo the gap fill entirely
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risks to this read