Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Downtrend since September high, basing above 0.6900 · RSI 35 · price 0.69564
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; 8-session range 0.6903–0.6995 beneath 0.7000.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 high on Sep 9. The Sep 23 drop through 0.7045 confirmed the turn as haven USD demand and fading RBA hike odds weighed. Since the 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1, when RSI briefly dipped below 30, price has held an 8-session range under the 0.7000 round number, with a higher low at 0.6932 and Monday's push to 0.6995 rejected at the falling trendline from the September high, near the 23.6% retracement. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50); the ema50 near 0.7045 overlaps the September breakdown zone.
Support: 0.69324, 0.69034, 0.68649
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70446, 0.71398
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7000 round number and the falling trendline would be the first break in the lower-high chain
- Close above the ema50 near 0.7045 opens the 0.7140 lower high and challenges the downtrend read
- Loss of the 0.6932 higher low, then a close below the 0.6903 swing low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6865 june low
- RBA minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC), US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) and AU jobs (Thu 00:30 UTC) could resolve the 0.6903–0.7000 range
18:47 UTC
Downtrend since early September, decline stalling · RSI 35 · price 0.69569
Lower high at 0.7237 then breakdown; two-week base 0.6903–0.7000.
The summer advance from the June low at 0.6865 topped at 0.7237 on Sep 9. The Sep 23 breakdown then cut through the summer uptrend line and the D1 EMA(50), and the slide gave back roughly 90% of that rally by the Oct 1 low at 0.6903. The decline was driven by a hawkish Fed, US yields near 2002 levels and risk-off episodes. For two weeks price has been boxed between the Oct 1 low and the 0.7000 range top, where EMA(20) also sits. It has made a small 16% recovery of the Sep decline while RSI holds in the mid-30s without reaching oversold.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7045
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7000 range top would end the two-week base and put the late-sep high at 0.7045, near the 38.2% of the Sep decline, in play
- Failure to hold the Oct 1 low at 0.6903 extends the lower-low sequence toward the june low at 0.6865
- RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC; heavy AUD net shorts leave room for a squeeze through the range top on a hawkish read
- US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a hot core print could reassert the USD-driven downtrend below 0.6903