AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Basing after downtrend, compressing under 0.7000 · RSI 58 · price 0.69821
Rising lows into a flat 0.6990s cap.
The decline from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 window low. Since then, rising lows at the 0.6932 range floor and the 0.6950 swing low have pressed into a flat range top at 0.6990–0.6995, just under the 0.7000 psych level and the 38.2% fib, forming an ascending-triangle shape. ATR(14) has compressed to ~13 pips from 20+ during the selloff, with price above both EMAs and EMA20 above EMA50. The repeated rejection below 0.7000 reflects a firm USD into US CPI that has outweighed the hawkish RBA minutes.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7022
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7000 psych breaks the range top and opens the fib 50% at 0.7022
Break of the 0.6950 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6932 range floor, then the 0.6903 window low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could resolve the compression either way
AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K / 4.6%) could materially shift this read
The slide from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 cycle low, and since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 0.6932 low cluster and the 0.6950 swing low. Advances keep stalling at the 0.6990-0.6995 range top, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, while demand keeps stepping in on dips. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 13-14 pips from 20-30 pips during the selloff, a coiling pattern consistent with the digest's read of oil- and haven-supported USD capping AUD just below 0.7000.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7022, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and 0.7000 psych exposes the 50% fib at 0.7022, then the 0.7045 prior high
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.6950 swing low reopens the 0.6932 low cluster
Loss of the 0.6903 cycle low resumes the lower-low sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could break the range from either side
AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6%) is a second catalyst for the range top
13:03 UTC
Basing after a downtrend, higher lows forming · RSI 54 · price 0.69785
Higher lows under a flat 0.6990-0.6995 cap, range compressing.
Since the 0.6903 swing low, AUD/USD has printed higher lows at the 0.6932 double low and the 0.6950 higher low. Highs keep stalling at the 0.6995 range top, which is the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7140-0.6903 decline and sits just under the 0.7000 handle that the safe-haven USD bid has kept capped. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50, with the 20 edging above the 50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 13 pips, from 25+ during the late-September slide, so the range is tightening ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7022, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and the 0.7000 handle breaks the range, opening the 50% fib at 0.7022 and the prior high at 0.7045
Break below the 0.6950 higher low and the rising higher-lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6932 double low and the 0.6903 swing low
US CPI on Wed 14 Oct at 12:30 UTC and the AU jobs report on Thu 15 Oct at 00:30 UTC could expand the compressed ATR and resolve the range
The slide from the 0.7140 September high bottomed at the 0.6903 swing low. Since then, higher lows at the 0.6932 range floor and the 0.6950 higher low have built a rising trendline. The 38.2% fib near 0.6994 has capped repeated pushes into the 0.6995 range high, just under the 0.7000 psych level that the safe-haven USD bid has defended. Price sits marginally above both EMAs, and ATR(14) has contracted to around 13 pips from the 25-30 pip readings of the selloff, a compressed range ahead of US CPI and AU jobs.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7000 psych level breaks the 0.6995 range high and 38.2% fib, opening the path to the 0.7042 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6950 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.6932 range floor
H4 close below 0.6932 resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6903 swing low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and AU employment Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows under a flat 0.6990s cap after the 0.6903 low.
The late-September slide from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 cycle low. Price has since built higher lows at 0.6932 and the 0.6950 swing low, but has been capped three times at the 0.6990s, near the 38.2% fib of the decline, as a firm, hawkish-Fed USD keeps AUD heavy below the 0.7000 psych level. Price is sitting on a flat EMA20, with EMA50 just beneath. ATR(14) has compressed to about 14 pips from 25+ during the selloff, so the contracting range points to a pending break.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.6995 38.2% fib and the 0.7000 psych level breaks the cap and exposes the 0.7039 prior high
A break of the 0.6950 swing low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.6932 higher low and the 0.6903 cycle low back in play
US September CPI on Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a squeeze on crowded AUD shorts
The AU September labour report on Thu 00:30 UTC is a second catalyst for a range break
0.6930–0.6995 range with modest higher lows after the 0.6903 low.
The leg down from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 multi-wk low in early October. Since then price has built a 0.6930–0.6995 range with shallow higher lows along a rising trendline, but every push to the range high has stalled near the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039–0.6903 drop. Price now trades below a flat EMA20 (~0.6966) and the ema50 (~0.6970), with a firm USD near 18-month highs and December Fed hike pricing capping rallies. ATR(14) has compressed to ~14 pips from 25+ during the selloff, typical of a range waiting for a catalyst.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6995, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range high clears the 61.8% fib and the 0.7000 cap, opening the 0.7040 prior high
Reclaiming the ema50 near 0.6970 would put price back on the upper half of the range
Failure to hold the 0.6950 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 0.6932 range floor, then the 0.6903 multi-wk low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: the core print could materially shift this read via USD
Australian labour force Thu 00:30 UTC is the next domestic test of the range edges
Lower highs from 0.7140 into 0.6903 low, now a 0.6932–0.6995 range.
The lower-high sequence from 0.7140 broke below 0.7000 and carried price to a 0.6903 cycle low. Since then AUDUSD has held a 0.6932–0.6995 range with a rising support line underneath. Monday's push to the range top was rejected short of the 0.7000 psych level as USD held 17-month highs on oil and hawkish-Fed flows. Price is back near 0.6955, the 38.2% retracement of the decline, below a flattened EMA20/EMA50 pair, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 13 pips from 35–50 pips during the selloff.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6942 swing low and the 0.6932 range low breaks rising support and reopens the 0.6903 cycle low
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and the 0.7000 psych level ends the range read, with the 0.7042 prior high the next lower-high pivot
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could break the current ATR compression
Australia September jobs data Thu 15 Oct 00:30 UTC could break the current ATR compression