Higher lows since 0.6903; false break above 0.7000 rejected on CPI.
Since the 0.6903 cycle low, swing structure has printed higher lows at the 0.6932 swing low and the 0.6950 twin lows. The hot US CPI print then reversed the push above the 0.7000 psych level from the 0.7013 cpi high, a false break that returns price to the 0.6950–0.7000 band. The rebound has stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the selloff from 0.7140, and price sits back below EMA20 while EMA20 holds above EMA50. ATR(14) near 15 pips is compressed against the selloff phase, with the rising trendline and twin lows now carrying the higher-low read.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7013, 0.7022
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6950 twin lows breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 0.6932 swing low and 0.6903 cycle low
H4 close back above the 0.7013 cpi high reclaims 0.7000 psych and opens the 50% fib at 0.7022
Australian labour report Thu 00:30 GMT (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT, with DXY at the 103.00 hurdle, add a second risk window
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6903 swing low.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 0.6903 low on 1 Oct, with the rising trendline through the 0.6932 higher low and the 0.6950 swing low intact. Price is now holding above the 0.7000 round number and approaching the 50% fib of the late-Sept decline at 0.7022, with EMA20 above EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 12 pips from the 30-50 pip bars of the sell-off; hawkish RBA minutes supported the Tue-Wed recovery, and the hot US core CPI landed in the latest bar with limited downside reaction so far.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70447
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.7000 round number would signal rejection at the 0.7000-0.7020 cap
A sustained break above the 0.7022 50% fib opens the 0.7044 prior high from late Sept
Loss of the 0.6950 swing low and the rising trendline would end the higher-low sequence
USD follow-through on hot core CPI, plus AU jobs Thu 00:30 GMT and US PPI/retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
Higher-low sequence off the 0.6903 cycle low; price just through the 0.6995 old cap.
Since the 0.6903 cycle low, AUDUSD has built a clean higher-low sequence (0.6932 double low, then the 0.6950 swing low) and has now closed above the 0.6995 old cap and the 0.7000 handle, with EMA20 holding above EMA50. The move tracks a USD correction off its highs and hawkish RBA minutes, and it takes price into the 0.7022 fib 50% retracement of the late-September decline, with the 0.7042 prior high cluster just above. ATR(14) has compressed to about 13 pips, against 30-50 pip bars during the selloff, so the advance is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7042, 0.7100
What it said to watch
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 0.6995 old cap and the 0.6950 swing low back in play
An H4 close back below the 0.6995 old cap would mark the breakout as a false break
A close above the 0.7042 prior high clears the fib 50% zone and opens the path toward the 0.7100 breakdown area
Loss of the 0.6950 swing low and the higher-low line, then the 0.6932 double low, would break the recovery structure
Australian September jobs data on Thu 00:30 GMT is the next event risk after CPI
05:04 UTC
Recovery from cycle low, pressing 0.7000 cap · RSI 58 · price 0.6995
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.6903, highs compressing under 0.7000.
The slide from the 0.7140 sept high bottomed at the 0.6903 cycle low, and the pair has since built higher lows at the 0.6932 swing low and 0.6950. Highs are stepping up far more slowly into the 0.7000 round number, which coincides with the 38.2% retrace of the decline, so price action is tightening into a rising wedge. ATR(14) has compressed to about 13 pips from 30-50 pips during the late-September selloff. Lower UST yields and hawkish RBA minutes drove this week's bounce, but supply has capped every test of 0.7000 so far.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7042, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.7000 round number breaks the repeated cap and opens the late-September range top at 0.7042
Failure to hold the 0.6950 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6932 swing low
A break below the 0.6903 cycle low would resume the decline from the 0.7140 sept high
US CPI today at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could decide the 0.7000 test
AU September jobs on Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6% unemployment) is a second volatility point for the wedge
The September slide from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 swing low, and price has since built a range between the 0.6932 range floor and the 0.6995 range top. Higher lows at 0.6932 and 0.6950 are pressing into a flat cap that lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the decline and sits just under 0.7000, where every approach this month has stalled despite USD softening after the Michigan sentiment miss. ATR(14) has compressed to around 13 pips from 20+ during the selloff, and price holds above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50, a coiled setup heading into event risk.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6995 range top and 0.7000 breaks the multi-week cap and exposes the 0.7042 swing high
Loss of the 0.6950 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and returns focus to the 0.6932 range floor
A break below the 0.6903 swing low resumes the September lower-low sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with the core print the key component, could materially shift this read
AU employment data Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6% unemployment) is the second catalyst for a range break