AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Short-term recovery off the post-CPI low · RSI 70 · price 0.69786
Higher-low chain since 0.6950, pressing 50% fib.
Hot US CPI broke AUD from the 0.7013 day high to the 0.6950 cpi low. Early Asia has extended a higher-low recovery into the 50% fib of that drop at 0.6981, which lines up with Wednesday's Asian low. RSI(14) near 70 and ATR about 2.6 pips into the Aussie labour report.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
Australian jobs at 00:30 GMT (~45 min) could materially shift this read; f/c 20K, unemployment 4.6%
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.6981 opens the 0.7000 psych cap, then the 0.7013 day high
A break of the 0.6971 swing low breaks the recovery trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.6950 cpi low resumes the post-CPI decline
23:31 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, grinding higher on low range · RSI 64 · price 0.6976
Higher-low chain off the 0.6950 NY low, now at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop.
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD about 60 pips off 0.7012 at 12:30 UTC, bottoming at the 0.6950 NY low. Since then it has printed a steady higher-low trendline into early Asia, with the 0.6971 swing low as the latest pivot. Price is pressing the 38.2% retrace near 0.6974, with the 50% fib at 0.6981 and the 0.6984 CPI bounce high just above.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6963, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6984, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Australian September jobs at 00:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read, with ATR near 2.4 pips likely to expand sharply
M15 close above the 0.6981 50% fib and 0.6984 CPI bounce high opens the 0.7000 psych handle
Loss of the 0.6971 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline; below the 0.6963 higher low, focus shifts to the 0.6950 NY low
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver after the jobs data
Higher-low chain off the 0.6950 cpi low, capped near the 38.2% fib.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC took AUDUSD from 0.7012 to the 0.6950 cpi low. The NY afternoon and early Asia session have since printed higher lows along the higher lows trendline, and price is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop near 0.6975 alongside EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips in thin trade.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69747, 0.69815, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Aus jobs at 00:30 GMT (f/c 20K, unemployment 4.6%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.6975 opens the 50% fib at 0.6982, then 0.7000 psych
Break of the 0.6969 rollover low and the higher lows trendline flattens the recovery into a range
Loss of the 0.6963 higher low exposes the 0.6950 cpi low
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 0.7000 round number and drove a 62-pip slide from the 0.7013 London high to the 0.6950 cpi low. Since then a higher-low recovery line has stalled at 0.6974, where the fib 38.2 meets EMA50. The early Asia session is holding a tight 0.6969–0.6975 band above the rollover low.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69503, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69741, 0.69815, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Aus jobs at 00:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read. A ~3-pip ATR understates the likely release range.
M15 close above 0.6974 fib 38.2 and EMA50 opens 0.6982 fib 50, then the 0.7000 round number.
Loss of the 0.6969 rollover low breaks the recovery line and puts the 0.6950 cpi low back in focus, with the 0.6935 range floor below on a soft jobs print.
Recovery from the CPI low testing the 38.2% fib; thin post-rollover range.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD 62 pips, from the 0.7013 session high to the 0.6950 cpi low. NY hours then built higher lows into the close, and price now sits at the 38.2% fib (0.6974) of that drop. The thin post-rollover range is holding just above the 0.6969 rollover low.
Support: 0.6969, 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69741, 0.69815, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.6982 recovers half the CPI drop and brings 0.7000 psych back into view
Rejection at the 38.2% fib, followed by a loss of the 0.6969 rollover low, breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6963 swing low
Australia September jobs at 00:30 GMT: a miss or unemployment ≥4.7% could reopen the 0.6950 cpi low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read via the USD
Higher-low chain off 0.6950 NY low, price at 38.2% fib and ema50.
Hotter US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.7012 through 0.7000 to a 0.6950 NY low. Since then a flag-like higher-low trendline has lifted price into early Asia at 0.6974, pressing the ema50/38.2 fib zone with the cpi bounce high at 0.6984 and 0.7000 psych above.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69746, 0.69836, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6975 (ema50/38.2 fib) opens the cpi bounce high at 0.6984, then 0.7000 psych
Break of the 0.6969 rollover low cracks the higher-low trendline; the 0.6963 higher low is next, then the 0.6950 ny low
Australia jobs report Thu 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
Higher-low chain off 0.6950 low, compressing below 0.6975.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from 0.7012 to the 0.6950 post-CPI low during NY. Price has since retraced about a third in a higher-low chain and is now pinned under the 0.6972 late NY high in thin early-Asia trade. The cpi bounce high at 0.6975 lines up with EMA50 and the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.69754, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6975 (cpi bounce high, EMA50, 38.2%) opens the path toward 0.7000 psych
Break of the 0.6969 rollover low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.6963 swing low and then the 0.6950 post-CPI low
Australia labour force report (Thu 00:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; IMF meeting at 00:00 UTC is secondary
Higher lows off 0.6950 NY low, flattening below 0.6972.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke AUD from 0.7012 to a 0.6950 NY low. The rebound since has built higher lows but is flattening under the 0.6972 recovery high in thin post-NY trade, just shy of the CPI drop's 38.2% fib and EMA50 near 0.6975.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69586, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.69754, 0.69836
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6975 (38.2% fib) opens the 0.6984 CPI bar high
Break of the 0.6966 higher low ends the recovery structure and exposes the 0.6959 swing low
Loss of the 0.6950 NY low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Australian jobs data at 00:30 GMT can override the thin Asia-open range
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next USD driver
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asia-London climb, flushing about 60 pips from the 0.7013 london high to a 0.6950 cpi low during NY hours. The recovery has built higher lows but stalled at the 0.6972 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib. Price is flat near 0.6969 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
AU September jobs report Thu 00:30 GMT, under 3h away, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6972 bounce high and the 38.2% fib opens a move back toward 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6963 higher low exposes the 0.6950 cpi low
Repeat test of the 0.7013 london high needed to negate the post-CPI downtrend
Higher lows off 0.6950 cpi low, capped at 0.6972 bounce high.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from 0.7012 to the 0.6950 cpi low, breaking down through the Asian low at 0.6982. NY hours carved higher lows along a recovery line to a 0.6972 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is now drifting at 0.6969 in thin rollover trade.
Support: 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.69818, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Australia labour force report Thu 00:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read
Close above the 0.6972 bounce high exposes the 0.6982 asian low, with 0.7000 psych above
Break below the 0.6963 swing low cracks the recovery line and reopens the 0.6950 cpi low
Lower-low at 0.6950 NY low, then higher lows capped near 0.6972.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT took AUDUSD from the 0.7013 London high through the Asian low at 0.6982 to a 0.6950 NY low. Late NY then built higher lows off the 0.6963 swing low, and price is stalling at the 0.6972 late-NY cap just under the 38.2% fib, in thin rollover trade.
Support: 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.6982, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6963 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6950 NY low
Acceptance above the 0.6972 late-NY cap and 38.2% fib opens the 0.6982 Asian low, with 0.7000 psych above
Australia jobs Thu 00:30 GMT (~3h20m) could reset this range in the Asia session
Higher lows off 0.6950 NY low, stalling at 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the London range from the 0.7012 session high to a 0.6950 NY low. Since then price has built a higher-low recovery along a rising trendline, with 0.6963 the latest swing low, and is now flattening at the 38.2% fib near 0.6974 with EMA50 just overhead in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.69634, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69739, 0.69836, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6974 38.2% fib exposes the 0.6983 cpi retest high, then the 0.7000 round number
Close below the 0.6963 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.6950 ny low
Last bars drifting under the rising trendline; sustained trade below it marks the recovery stalling
Australian labour report Thu 00:30 GMT (~3.5h away) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6950 since 16:15 GMT, capped under fib 38.2.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the London range near 0.7012 and drove a 60-pip drop to the 0.6950 CPI low. Late NY hours have built higher lows back to the 0.6972 rebound high, stalling just under the fib 38.2 at 0.6974, with price riding the rising trendline into the Asia session.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.6974, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6972 rebound high and fib 38.2 at 0.6974 opens the path back toward 0.7000 psych
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.6963 higher low returns focus to the 0.6950 CPI low
Australian September jobs report (Thu 00:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 0.6950 low, stalling at 38.2% retrace.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the 0.7003–0.7012 London range and drove a 60-pip slide into a double bottom at the 0.6950 cpi low. Late NY has since built a higher-low chain along the bounce trendline, with the 0.6972 recent high capping just under the 38.2% retrace.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6972 recent high and 38.2% retrace near 0.6974 opens the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6966 higher low and the bounce trendline puts the 0.6950 cpi low back in play
AU September jobs data at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 0.6950 cpi low, capped near 0.6972.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT flushed AUDUSD 62 pips from the 0.7013 London high, through the Asian range, to a 0.6950 cpi low. Late NY has built a higher-low chain along a recovery line, with price stalling at the 0.6972 late ny high, just under the 0.6975 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above 0.6975 (38.2% fib / post-CPI spike high) opens the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6966 higher low and the recovery line returns focus to the 0.6950 cpi low
Australian jobs data Thu 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Pending Fed Chair Warsh speech is a USD headline risk
Higher-low chain off 0.6950 low, retesting CPI breakdown.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke AUD/USD out of the 0.7000–0.7013 London range to a 0.6950 cpi low. Since 16:15 GMT, higher lows along the rising trendline have lifted price back into the 0.6973 cpi break area, just under the 38.2% fib, with ATR compressing in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6959, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6982, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6982 50% fib undoes the retest read and brings 0.7000 psych back into range
Loss of the rising trendline near 0.6966 and the 0.6959 swing low exposes the 0.6950 cpi low
Australian jobs report Thu 00:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6950 cpi low, highs capped at 0.6970.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT dropped AUDUSD from the 0.7012 London high, through the Asian range and the 0.7000 psych level, to a 0.6950 cpi low. Late NY has built a higher-low chain along a rising line, last at 0.6963. Highs are capped at the 0.6970 recovery cap, just under the 38.2% retracement at 0.6974, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.69634, 0.69586, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.69812, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6970 recovery cap and the 38.2% at 0.6974 opens the 50% fib at 0.6981
Break of the rising line and the 0.6963 higher low exposes the 0.6959 swing low and the cpi low at 0.6950
Australian jobs data at 00:30 GMT Thursday (~5h) could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh speech (timing not given) is a USD headline risk during thin late-NY trade
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT pushed AUDUSD off its 0.7012 London high, through 0.7000 and below the Asian range, to a 0.6950 NY low. Late NY is grinding higher along a rising tl. The rebound high at 0.6970 is capping price just under the fib 38.2 at 0.6975, the same area as the 0.6975 lower high, and RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6963, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising tl and the 0.6963 swing low reopens the 0.6950 ny low
Close above the 0.6970 rebound high and the 0.6975 fib 38.2 brings the 0.7000 psych level back into view
Australian September jobs data at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Double top 0.7012, sell-off to 0.6950, higher lows since.
London's double top at 0.7012 gave way when the hot US CPI hit at 12:30 GMT. One 38-pip bar broke the range, and the drop extended to the 0.6950 cpi low by 16:15. After the London close, price has built a chain of rising lows, RSI(14) is back near 50, and the bounce high at 0.6970 caps just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.6974.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6974, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the rising lows near 0.6964 re-exposes the 0.6950 cpi low
Break below the 0.6950 cpi low opens the 0.6935 range floor
M15 close above the 0.6970 bounce high and the 38.2% fib at 0.6974 opens the path to 0.7000 psych
AU labour report Thu 00:30 GMT (~5h) and a pending Warsh speech could materially shift this read
A double top at 0.7012 gave way when hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) hit at 12:30 GMT, dropping AUDUSD back below 0.7000 to a 0.6950 swing low. Late NY session has built higher lows off that base, but price is capped at the 0.6970 bounce high, below the 50% fib of the CPI drop at 0.6981. RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6981, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6970 bounce high opens the 50% fib at 0.6981, with 0.7000 psych above
Break of the higher-low trendline near 0.6963 puts the 0.6950 swing low back in play, then the 0.6935 range floor
Australian labour report Thu 00:30 GMT (f/c 20K, 4.6%) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs intact; micro higher lows off session low.
The hot US CPI print (3.7% vs 3.6%) at 15:30 broker time reversed London's 0.7012 high into a 62-pip slide to a 0.6950 session low, well below the 0.6982–0.7003 Asian range. Late NY is building higher lows along the recovery lows, but the bounce met rejection at 0.6970 and is still capped by the 0.6975 lower high near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 0.6959, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6959 higher low breaks the recovery lows line and puts the 0.6950 session low back in play
AU September labour report at Thu 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6950 session low, testing lower high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the 0.7000–0.7012 London range in a single 37-pip bar and extended to a 0.6950 session low during NY hours. Since 16:15 GMT a higher-low sequence (latest 0.6960) has lifted price into the 0.6968 lower high, still under the fib 38.2 of the CPI drop at 0.6975.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6975 fib 38.2 opens a path toward the 0.7000 psych level
Failure at the 0.6968 lower high and a break of the 0.6960 higher low line exposes the 0.6950 session low
Australian jobs report Thu 00:30 GMT and a pending Fed Chair Warsh speech could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 54 · price 0.69661
Higher low at 0.6959 after 0.6950 session low; price pressing post-CPI lower-high at 0.6968.
Hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) at 12:30 GMT flushed AUDUSD from 0.7012 to a 0.6950 session low, ending a London advance that had capped just under 0.7013. Late NY has printed a higher low at 0.6959 and price is now testing the 0.6968 lower high, sitting at the 23.6% retrace of the CPI drop.
Support: 0.69586, 0.69503
Resistance: 0.69676, 0.69754, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6968 lower high opens the fib 38.2 at 0.6975
Loss of the 0.6959 higher low negates the late-NY basing
Break of the 0.6950 session low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
0.7000 psych level is the CPI breakdown pivot above
AU September jobs report at 00:30 GMT (~6h) could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke AUDUSD from the 0.7012 London high through the 0.7000 psych and the Asian range low (0.6981) to a double bot at 0.6950 during NY hours. The late-NY rebound is stalling at the ema20 and the 23.6% fib near 0.6966. RSI(14) is neutral at 42.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6975 cpi bounce high (38.2% fib) breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6950 double bot exposes the 0.6935 major supp
AU labour report at 00:30 GMT is the next session-level catalyst
Lower highs since CPI; equal lows forming at 0.6950.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the 0.6981–0.7013 Asia-London range and dropped AUD/USD about 60 pips to a 0.6950 session low. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is basing in a tentative double bottom and pressing the 0.6967 lower high, where ema20 sits, with RSI(14) at 42. The 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop at 0.6974 sits just under the 0.6975 post-CPI high.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6967 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-high chain, putting the 0.6975 post-CPI high and 0.7000 psych in focus
A loss of the 0.6950 session low voids the double bottom and exposes 0.6935 major support
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and AU jobs at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, basing late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.69594
Lower highs from 0.6975, flat floor at 0.6950.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 60 pips off the 0.7012 London high, through the Asian range and below 0.7000 psych. Late in the NY session, after London close, the session low at 0.6950 has held three times. Price is drifting up toward the ema20 near 0.6966, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6975 post-CPI high, which is the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib, ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6950 session low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT (~45 min) could shift this read
The AU labour report at 00:30 GMT lands in the Asia session and could reset the post-CPI range
16:47 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, now basing · RSI 34 · price 0.69576
Post-CPI lower highs compressing into a flat floor at 0.6950.
Hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 60 pips off the 0.7012 London high and below the Asian range low near 0.6981. Since London close, price has compressed between the 0.6950 session low, tested repeatedly, and a lower high at 0.6962, while RSI(14) recovers to 34 from sub-30.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high opens the 38.2 fib near 0.6975
A reclaim of 0.6975 brings the 0.7000 psych level back into view
Failure to hold the 0.6950 session low exposes 0.6935 major supp
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and AU jobs data at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain below Asian range low, grinding at session low.
Hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) at 12:30 GMT knocked AUD/USD off the 0.7012 London high and through the asian low at 0.6976. NY has since printed a lower-high chain under a falling trendline into a 0.6950 session low, with RSI(14) near 30 and ranges compressing after London close. The 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop sits near 0.6974, close to the asian low.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6976, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and 0.6959 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the 0.6950 session low exposes 0.6935 major supp
Reclaim of the 0.6976 asian low and 38.2% CPI drop retrace would turn the break into a false break
0.7000 psych level is the pre-CPI pivot and caps any full retrace
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and AU jobs data at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain under descending trendline, compressing above session low.
Hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) at 12:30 GMT reversed the London push to the 0.7013 session high. The CPI selloff broke the Asian range and yesterday's 0.6976 low, and NY has since printed a lower-high chain capped by a descending trendline. After London close, price is compressing just above the 0.6951 session low, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 0.6962 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
A recovery through the 38.2% fib at 0.6975 would be needed to bring the 0.7000 psych level back into play
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and the AU September jobs report at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 30 · price 0.69552
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC flipped the London advance from 0.7012. A 37-pip bar broke the Asian range and the 0.6976 prior low, and price set a session low at 0.6951 during NY hours. Each bounce since has capped under the cpi trendline, the latest lower high at 0.6962, and price is now compressing just above the low with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6976, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 lower high and the cpi trendline breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low exposes the 0.6935 major supp
Rebound into 0.6974–0.6976 (38.2% of the cpi drop fib / prior low) meets old support now overhead; 0.7000 psych above
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and AU jobs data Thu 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend since CPI, stalling near lows · RSI 30 · price 0.69561
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows; tight 0.6951–0.6962 base late in NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC reversed the London advance from the 0.7013 session high. A 37-pip bar broke the Asian range low near 0.6982 and yesterday's 0.6976 prior low. NY extended to a 0.6951 session low under a falling lower-highs trendline (0.6975, 0.6968, 0.6962), with RSI(14) near 30 but not washed out.
Support: 0.69511, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69623, 0.69762, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.6962 lower high breaks the post-CPI sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low exposes 0.6935 major support
Reclaim of the 0.6976 prior low (near the 38.2% CPI selloff fib) would neutralise the breakdown
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone; Australian jobs data Thu 00:30 GMT is the next AUD risk
0.7000 psych level caps any recovery back into the London range
15:31 UTC
Downtrend since US CPI, momentum steadying · RSI 33 · price 0.69584
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC, pausing above session low.
The hot US CPI beat at 12:30 UTC broke the London advance. AUDUSD fell from 0.7012 through the 0.7000 round number, and NY hours have since printed a lower-high sequence (0.6984, 0.6975 at the fib 38.2, then 0.6968) along with lower lows to the 0.6951 session low. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold; ATR has expanded to roughly 7 pips.
Support: 0.69511, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69676, 0.69754, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6968 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the fib 38.2 at 0.6975 sits above it
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6935 major supp
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
Australia jobs data Thu 00:30 GMT (~9h) is the next major AUD risk
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 39 pips off the 0.7012 London high in a single bar and broke the day's 0.6997–0.7013 range. Since then, NY has printed lower highs at the 0.6984 post-CPI top, 0.6975 and the 0.6968 lower high, and set a fresh session low at 0.6951. RSI(14) is near 30, not yet extreme, with the 0.6935 major support about 16 pips below.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6984, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6968 lower high breaks the post-CPI trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low exposes 0.6935 major support
A reclaim of the 0.6984 post-CPI top and the 0.7000 round number would neutralise the CPI breakdown
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift Fed-hike pricing and this read; AU jobs data is due Thu 00:30 GMT
Post-CPI lower-high chain below the broken Asian range, base forming near 0.6954.
The 12:30 GMT US CPI beat reversed AUD from 0.7012 and broke it 58 pips lower, through the Asian range low near 0.6981 and the prior low at 0.6976, with NY hours printing lower highs at 0.6984, 0.6975 and 0.6968. The bounce off the 0.6954 cpi low stalled at the 23.6% fib, and the 14:45 GMT dip held just above it. RSI(14) is near 28.
Support: 0.69538, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69676, 0.69762, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6954 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence and opens 0.6935 major support
An M15 close above the 0.6968 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain, putting the 0.6976 prior low back in play
A reclaim of the 0.7000 round number would erase most of the post-CPI move
Fed speaker Bowman and the 18:00 GMT Beige Book could shift the USD tone during NY hours
The hot US CPI beat at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 40 pips off its 0.7012 London-session high in a single bar, losing the 0.7000 figure and the whole Asian range down to the 0.69818 asian low. The drop bottomed at the 0.69538 cpi low. The NY session bounce has printed lower highs at 0.69754 (the 38.2% retrace) and the 0.69676 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 33 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.69538, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69676, 0.69754, 0.69818
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69754 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain and exposes the 0.69818 asian low
Failure to hold the 0.69538 cpi low extends the sell-off toward the 0.6935 range floor
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT could materially shift this read; Beige Book at 18:00 GMT is the next USD risk
Sustained trade below the 0.69676 bounce high keeps price in a 0.6954–0.6968 post-CPI consolidation
Lower high 0.6975 below prior low, post-cpi low 0.6954.
The hot US CPI beat at 12:30 GMT reversed the Asia-London climb at the 0.7013 session high. Price flushed through the Asian range and the prior low at 0.6976 to a post-cpi low of 0.6954. The first-hour-of-NY bounce is capping below the prior low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement, while the 50% fib sits at 0.6983. RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR is around 12 pips after the event spike.
Support: 0.69538, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the prior low at 0.6976 would neutralise the lower-high sequence and expose the 50% fib at 0.6983.
Failure to hold the post-cpi low at 0.6954 extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor.
The 0.7000 psych figure is the line that would mark a full CPI unwind.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the USD bid.
AU jobs at 00:30 GMT Thu could materially shift this read.
14:16 UTC
Sharp downtrend post-CPI, minor bounce off low · RSI 28 · price 0.69634
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT took AUDUSD 59 pips off the 0.7013 London session high and erased the Asian and London gains, breaking below yesterday's 0.6976 NY lows. NY hours show lower highs at 0.6984 and 0.6975 into a 0.6954 session low. RSI(14) near 28 is approaching oversold, and the current bar is a small bounce.
Support: 0.69538, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69754, 0.69836, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6975 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection near the 50% fib at 0.6984 keeps the post-CPI downtrend intact
Failure to hold the 0.6954 session low exposes the 0.6935 band low
A return above 0.7000 psych would negate the CPI move
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the USD bid
AU jobs data at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Sharp downtrend after CPI, below both EMAs · RSI 29 · price 0.69704
London double top at 0.7012, then CPI range break below the Asian low; lower highs since.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT broke AUDUSD out of the London range below the 0.7012 session high double top. It dropped about 54 pips to a 0.6958 CPI low, through the 24h and Asian lows. The 13:30 bounce stalled just under the broken Asian low at 0.6976 and is near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.6958, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.7000, 0.7012
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6976 Asian low negates the retest and points to the 38.2% fib near 0.6979–0.6985
Break of the 0.6958 CPI low exposes the 0.6935 range low
Reclaim of the 0.7000 round number would unwind most of the CPI move
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move; AU jobs at 00:30 GMT is next
London range broken lower on CPI; lower high 0.6984, base forming near 0.6958.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 54 pips off the 0.7012 London high. Price sliced through the Asian range and Tuesday's 0.6975 prior low to a 0.6958 CPI low. The first hour of NY is stabilising off that low, with RSI(14) near 19 and ATR expanded to ~6 pips.
Support: 0.69579, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69751, 0.69836, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.6975 prior low keeps the CPI leg intact; a reclaim brings the 38.2% fib and the 0.6984 bounce high into play
A break of the 0.6958 CPI low exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Only a recovery through the 0.7000 round number would neutralise the CPI break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
13:16 UTC
Sharp downturn after CPI, stalling near lows · RSI 24 · price 0.6969
Asian range and prior-day low broken lower; post-CPI low 0.6960 in place.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) drove AUDUSD down roughly 50 pips from the London high at 0.7013 in three bars. Price broke the asian low at 0.6976 and printed a cpi low at 0.6960. It is now stalling just above that low with RSI(14) at 24, while the cpi bounce high at 0.6984 sits near the 38.2% level of the cpi drop fib.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6984, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian low at 0.6976 would turn the break into a false break
The cpi bounce high at 0.6984, the 38.2% level of the cpi drop fib, caps any recovery attempt
A failure to hold the cpi low at 0.6960 exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move; the 0.7000 round number marks the pre-CPI pivot
Asia-London uptrend broken; new 24h low below Asian range.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 40 pips off 0.7012 in a single bar. The CPI drop broke the Asia-London uptrend, the asian low at 0.6982 and the prior low near 0.6975. The follow-up bounce met rejection at 0.6984, under the old Asian low, and price is printing a fresh cpi low near 0.6971 with RSI(14) around 20.
Support: 0.69708, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.69751, 0.69818, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.6971 exposes next support at 0.6960
Recovery above the prior low at 0.6975 and the asian low at 0.6982 would show the CPI drop being retraced
A reclaim of 0.7000 psych would negate the breakdown read
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the USD move
The US CPI release at 12:30 GMT knocked AUDUSD about 37 pips off the 0.7012 double top in one bar. That erased the Asian and London advance and printed a CPI low at 0.6973, under yesterday's NY lows. Early NY trade is holding below the 0.6982 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 22.
Support: 0.6973, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.7000, 0.7012
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 0.6982 Asian low and the 0.7000 round number would mark the CPI drop as a spike; the 50–61.8% cpi drop fib sits at 0.6993–0.6998
An M15 close below the 0.6973 CPI low exposes next support at 0.6960
A move back above the 0.7012 double top would invalidate the reversal read
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and AU jobs at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Double top at session high, London range broken lower.
The US CPI release bar knocked AUDUSD about 19 pips, from 0.7012 to the 0.6991 cpi low. That bar followed a double top at the 0.7013 session high and cut through both the 0.7003 london low and the 0.7000 round number. RSI(14) dropped to ~28, and price sits between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London rally, just above the 0.6986 prior high from yesterday's session.
Support: 0.69911, 0.69863, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70031, 0.70126
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7003 london low would negate the double-top break
Failure to hold the 0.6991 cpi low (61.8% retrace) exposes the 0.6986 prior high, then the 0.6976 asian low
Any retest of the 0.7013 session high would put the double-top read in question
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and AU jobs at 00:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; Asian high broken in London and retested.
The Asia-led push through 0.7000 extended in London to a 0.70126 session high, helped by softer UST yields and hawkish RBA minutes. The late-London pullback held 0.7003, the asian high, at the 61.8% retrace of the London leg, leaving a higher low. Price is back near 0.7010 into the NY open with ATR(14) at only about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.7003, 0.7000, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 15 minutes out, will likely dwarf the 2.6-pip ATR. A print above 3.6% y/y puts the asian high retest at 0.7003 at risk.
An M15 close above the 0.70126 session high opens the path to the 0.7020 range top.
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number and the 0.69968 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence.
AU employment data at 00:30 GMT is the next scheduled driver after the CPI reaction.
HH/HL chain since Asia; London pullback held the Asian high.
London extended the Asian breakout through 0.7000 psych to a session high at 0.70126. The pullback then held the Asian high at 0.7003 and the rising support from the 0.6993 Asia pivot. The move tracks hawkish RBA minutes and softer UST yields; price is back on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral into US CPI.
Support: 0.70031, 0.7000, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; the 2.6-pip ATR understates likely event range
M15 close below the 0.7003 asian high and rising support exposes 0.7000 psych and the 0.6997 swing low
Close above the 0.70126 session high opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back into CPI · RSI 46 · price 0.70058
HH/HL chain since Asia; London high 0.7013, retest of 0.7003.
The Asia-session advance from 0.6982 cleared the 0.7000 psych level, and London extended it to a 0.7013 session high on softer UST yields and hawkish RBA minutes. Price has since slipped below EMA20 and retested the Asian high near 0.7003, which held along rising support between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR is tight at about 2.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.7003, 0.7000, 0.6997
Resistance: 0.7008, 0.7013, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, roughly an hour out, could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.6997 swing low in play
A close back below the Asian high at 0.7003 breaks rising support and the HL sequence
Reclaiming ema20 near 0.7008 and clearing the 0.7013 session high would put the 0.7020 range top in focus
AU jobs at 00:30 GMT are the next overnight driver
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back into CPI · RSI 40 · price 0.70042
Higher-low chain broken at 0.7007, testing London low.
Asia rallied from 0.6981 through the 0.7000 psych level. London extended that to a 0.70126 session high on hawkish RBA minutes and a softer USD. A four-bar pullback has since broken the 0.7007 higher low (broken hl) and is testing the 0.7004 london low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price back under EMA20.
Support: 0.7004, 0.7000, 0.6997
Resistance: 0.7007, 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.6% y/y, core 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read within the next five bars
M15 close below the 0.7000 psych level puts the breakout at risk; 0.6997 is the fib 50% of the Asia-London rally
Reclaiming the 0.7007 broken hl reopens the session high at 0.70126; above that sits the 0.7020 range top
11:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 50 · price 0.70062
London broke Asian high, now retracing toward it.
AUD extended the Asia-session rally on hawkish RBA minutes and a softer USD, and London broke the Asian high at 0.7003 to print a London high at 0.70126 before slipping back to the 38.2% fib near 0.7006. Price has dipped under EMA20 with RSI(14) back to 50, a pre-CPI cooling rather than a structural break.
Support: 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core MoM vs 0.2% is the swing factor
M15 close back below the 0.7003 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.69968 swing low
Close above the 0.70126 London high opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
HH/HL chain since Asia open; London broke above the Asian high and 0.7000.
AUD rallied through Asia and into London on hawkish RBA minutes and a softer USD, clearing the 0.7003 asian high and the 0.7000 round number before printing a session high at 0.70126. The latest bars eased back toward EMA20 and the 0.70067 swing low, with RSI(14) cooling to about 55. The pair is pausing just under the 0.7020 range top ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, under 2h away, could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.70067 swing low ends the HL chain and exposes the asian high at 0.7003
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number would mean the London breakout has unwound
A close above the 0.70126 session high would put the 0.7020 range top in play
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London broke Asian high, now compressing under session high.
AUD extended its Asia-session climb from 0.6976, helped by firm China PPI and a softer USD. London broke the Asian high at 0.7003 and pushed to a 0.7013 session high. Late-London bars are compressing on the rising trendline just under the 0.7020 range top, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR at roughly 3 pips.
Support: 0.7009, 0.70067, 0.7003
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read; a hot core print targets the asian high and lower
An M15 close below the 0.7007 london low breaks the HL chain and the trendline
A close above the 0.7013 session high and the 0.7020 range top extends the breakout
Failure back below the 0.7003 asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 69 · price 0.70112
Asian range broken higher at London open; flat top at 0.7011 with rising lows.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.7003 and extended to a 0.7011 session high, extending the Asia-session leg built on a softer USD after Williams and hawkish RBA minutes. The session high has capped four tests while lows step higher along the rising trendline. RSI(14) sits near 69 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so ranges are compressing ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70115, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7011 session high opens the 0.7020 range top
Break of the 0.7007 swing low and the rising trendline (~0.7009) ends the higher-low chain
Asian high at 0.7003 and the 0.7000 round number align with the 38.2% of the asia-london leg; failure there turns the breakout into a false break
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.6% y/y, core 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 70 · price 0.70105
HH/HL chain since Asia; London broke Asian high, now capped twice at 0.7011.
A steady Asia-session grind from 0.6981 cleared the 0.7003 asian high at London open, helped by softer US yields and the hawkish RBA minutes. Mid-London, price is pressing the 0.7011 session high for a second time with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR around 3 pips, holding above rising support into US CPI.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7011 session high opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
Loss of the 0.7007 swing low and rising support breaks the HH/HL chain, putting the 0.7003 asian high and the 38.2% fib near 0.7000 in focus
A break below the 0.6997 higher low would confirm a lower-low on this timeframe
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (headline f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 14:55 GMT
09:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 68 · price 0.70103
HH/HL chain since 04:00 UTC; London broke above the Asian range high.
London open broke the Asian range (0.6981–0.7003) and extended to a 0.70114 session high. That high has been tested twice and has capped price so far, while the 09:00 UTC swing low at 0.70067 holds the higher-low sequence. The move fits the digest's account of a softer USD and hawkish RBA minutes, with price now pressing toward the 0.7020 range top ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.7000 round number at risk
M15 close above the 0.70114 session high opens a test of the 0.7020 range top
Failure to hold the 0.70067 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 0.7003 Asian high in focus as retest support
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is live during the current bar
HH/HL chain since Asia; London broke Asian range high, now tight consolidation above it.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.7003 and printed a session high at 0.7011. Price has since compressed between the 0.7007 pullback low and that high ahead of US CPI, after a two-day recovery on softer US yields and hawkish RBA minutes. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the pause is quiet rather than stretched.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7011 session high opens the 0.7020 range top, where supply has capped the recent band
A close back below the 0.7003 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the Asia rising trendline and the 0.6997 swing low would mark the first lower-low since the Asian session
A 38.2% fib retracement at 0.6998 marks the first deeper pullback zone if the breakout fails
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (headline f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
HH/HL chain from Asia; London broke above Asian high, shallow pullback.
Asia ground higher off the 0.6976 rollover lows. About 2h into London the pair cleared the 0.7003 Asian high and 0.7000 psych to a 0.7011 session high, now holding a shallow 0.7007 pullback low with RSI(14) near 67. A softer USD and hawkish RBA minutes underpin the bid, with the 0.7020 range top overhead into US CPI.
Support: 0.70067, 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7002
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7003 asian high and 0.7000 psych turns the London breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6997 higher low, near the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg, breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
0.7020 range top: area to watch for rejection or break; a sustained close above extends the session-high run
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read; a hot print above 3.6% y/y puts 0.7000 at risk
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT may add USD volatility before the London-NY transition
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.6981 Asian low; London broke the Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.7003 and printed a session high at 0.7011, extending the higher-low chain from the 0.6981 Asian low as USD eased into CPI. Price is holding just under the 0.7020 range top, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61 and the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg near 0.7000.
Support: 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.7000 area back in play
M15 close back below the 0.7003 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of rising support and the 0.6997 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.7011 session high opens a test of the 0.7020 range top
HH/HL chain since Asia; London open cleared Asian range high.
AUDUSD broke the 0.7000 psych level in Asia, and the 0.6997 retest low held. London open then cleared the 0.7003 Asian range high and printed a session high at 0.7011 as the USD stayed soft after Williams' remarks. Higher lows at 0.6993, 0.6997 and the 0.7004 swing low keep the micro uptrend intact. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR(14) about 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.70038, 0.7000, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7004 swing low exposes the 0.7000 psych level, which sits near the 50% retracement of the 0.6993–0.7011 leg
An M15 close back below the 0.6997 retest low would turn the 0.7000 break into a false break
A close above the 0.7011 session high opens the 0.7020 range top cited in the digest
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (3.6% YoY f/c) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, extending in London · RSI 68 · price 0.70104
HH/HL chain since the Asia open; London broke the 0.7003 Asian high and the 0.7000 cap.
Asia built a higher-low chain off the 0.6982 open low along a rising Asia trendline, then stalled at the 0.7003 Asian high. London cleared that high and the 0.7000 psych cap and printed a 0.7011 session high, with the USD still soft after Williams' dovish lean. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and the 0.6997 pullback low sits beneath.
Support: 0.7003, 0.69968, 0.69933
Resistance: 0.70114, 0.7020
What it said to watch
A return below the 0.7003 Asian high would turn the break into a false break back under the 0.7000 cap
An M15 close under the 0.6997 pullback low ends the higher-low chain and the rising Asia trendline, exposing the 0.6993 swing low and the fib 61.8
Holding above the 0.7011 session high puts the 0.7020 range top in view
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
London open broke above the Asian range high and the 0.7000 cap.
The Asian rally from 0.6976 extended at London open through 0.7000 and the 0.7003 Asian high, with a session high at 0.7009 and a higher-low chain intact on softer USD and the China PPI beat. RSI(14) is near 67, warm but not stretched. The 0.7020 range top is the next marker ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.70038, 0.7003, 0.69968
Resistance: 0.70092, 0.7020
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.7003 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break below the 0.7000 cap
Loss of the 0.6997 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Holding the 0.7004 London low keeps the session's higher-low sequence intact
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia open; London extended Asian range high to 0.7008.
Asia cleared yesterday's 0.6986 prior high and the 0.7000 psych on USD softness and supportive China data. London open pushed to a 0.7008 session high, and the rising lows since 0.6993 are intact. RSI(14) has cooled to 60 while price holds just above 0.7000.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69968, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.70076, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7000 psych puts the breakout in false-break territory
Loss of the 0.6997 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain and exposes the 38.2% asia rally fib and the 0.6986 prior high
Acceptance above the 0.7008 session high opens the 0.7020 band top
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.6981; London open broke above the Asian high.
AUD climbed through the Asia session from 0.6981 on USD softness after Williams' dovish lean, printing higher lows at 0.6993 and 0.6997. London open lifted price through the 0.7003 Asian high to a session high at 0.7008, and it is now holding just above the 0.7000 psych level with RSI(14) at 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.7003, 0.69968, 0.69933
Resistance: 0.70076, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7003 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 0.6997 swing low breaks the HL chain, with the 0.6993 prior low next
Clearing the 0.7008 session high opens the 0.7020 band top
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asia; break above Asian range high at 0.7003.
Asia built a higher-low chain off the 0.6976 rollover low, supported by USD softness and firm China data. London open pushed through the 0.7000 psych cap and the 0.7003 Asian high to a 0.7007 session high. RSI(14) is near 69, firm but not stretched, and the 0.6993 and 0.6997 higher lows anchor the HL trendline.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69968, 0.69933
Resistance: 0.70071, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.7000 psych would turn the London break into a false break back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.6997 swing low breaks the HL trendline and exposes the 0.6995 rally fib 38.2%
0.6993 higher low is the last intraday pivot of the Asia leg; a break there undoes the HL chain
Extension above the 0.7007 session high puts the 0.7020 band top in view
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 61 · price 0.70012
Higher lows compressing under the asian high.
The Asia session rally from 0.6976 carried price through the 0.7000 psych as the USD eased after Williams' remarks, with the 03:45 UTC pullback low at 0.6993 holding at the 38.2% retracement. London open is coiling in a tight 0.6997–0.7004 band, with a swing low at 0.6997 and repeated probes capped at the 0.7004 asian high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is under 3 pips, which points to compression into US CPI.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69968, 0.69933
Resistance: 0.70039, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 asian high opens the 0.7020 band top
Close below the 0.6997 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6993 pullback low
Loss of 0.7000 psych on a closing basis turns the push into a false break
US CPI at 12:30 GMT; core MoM ≥0.3% vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could move USD during London hours
Asia HH/HL chain, tight coil just under the Asian high.
The Asia session lifted AUD/USD from the 0.6976 rollover low to a 0.7003 Asian high, helped by USD softness and the China PPI beat. Price is now coiling around 0.7000 into London open on a 2.6-pip ATR. The higher low at 0.6993 and the 0.6997 swing low sit beneath, and the 0.6986 prior high from yesterday's NY session is the next floor.
Support: 0.69968, 0.69933, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7003 Asian high opens the 0.7020 band top
Failure to hold the 0.6997 swing low and the 0.6993 higher low breaks the Asia HL chain toward the 0.6986 prior high
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 60 · price 0.70012
Asian HH/HL chain, tight hold just above 0.7000 into London open.
Asia session pushed from 0.6982 to an Asian high at 0.7003 on broad USD softness, with higher lows at 0.6993 and 0.6997 along a rising trendline. Price has since compressed in a 0.6997–0.7003 band for about two hours, RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 2.6 pips as London opens.
Support: 0.69968, 0.69933, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6997 swing low breaks the Asian HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.6993
Loss of 0.6993 puts the prior high at 0.6986, yesterday's NY ceiling, back in play
Close above the 0.7003 asian high opens the 0.7020 band top
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 56 · price 0.69999
HH/HL chain from Asia, tight hold just above 0.7000 psych.
The Asia session rally on USD softness and firm China data cleared the prior high at 0.6986 and pushed through 0.7000 psych. The session high at 0.7003 has capped twice, while higher lows at 0.6993 and 0.6997 hold the rising trendline into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.69968, 0.69933, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6997 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 0.6993 swing low marks a lower low and exposes the 0.6986 prior high
Sustained trade above the 0.7003 session high opens the 0.7020 range top
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 58 · price 0.70014
Asia higher-high/higher-low chain holding above the 0.7000 psych level.
AUDUSD climbed from the 0.6976 rollover low through the Asian session, helped by a softer USD and China's PPI beat, and pushed through 0.7000 to an asia high at 0.7003. The late-Asia dip to the 0.6997 higher low was bought straight back. Price is pinned at the psych level into London open, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.69968, 0.69933, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7003 asia high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.7020 range top
A break of the 0.6997 higher low and the 0.6993 swing low (38.2% of the Asia rally) ends the Asia structure
Losing the 0.6986 prior high (Tuesday NY high) puts price back inside yesterday's range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Range expansion at London open off the tight 0.7000 hold
Higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia, first pullback off the 0.7003 high.
The Asia session cleared Tuesday's high at 0.6986, helped by the China PPI beat and a softer USD. The Asia leg off the 0.6981 low topped at the 0.7003 Asia high. Late-Asia rejection under the 0.7000 psych level has pulled price back to 0.6997, with the higher-low chain still intact above the 0.6993 swing low and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69933, 0.69862, 0.69813
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7003 Asia high clears the repeated 0.7000 psych cap
Loss of the 0.6993 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the Tuesday high at 0.6986, then the Asia low at 0.6981
London open in ~1h may set a new session range off the Asia leg
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 63 · price 0.70003
HH/HL chain through Asia, now pressing the 0.7000 psych.
The Asia session cleared Tuesday's NY high at 0.6986 after China's PPI beat. Price then printed a higher low at 0.6993 and an Asian high at 0.7003. Price is back on the 0.7000 psych and the Asia trendline late in Asian hours, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR at about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69933, 0.69862
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6993 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.6986 ny high
Acceptance above the 0.7003 asian high puts the 0.7020 range cap in view
Break of the Asia trendline at the London open would signal the Asian leg is exhausted
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.7000 · RSI 73 · price 0.70025
Asia breakout above prior high; higher-low chain holding just above 0.7000.
The Asia session broke Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high after the hot China PPI print and carried the pair through 0.7000. A higher low at the 0.6993 swing low, along the Asia trendline, fed a 0.7003 session high. The pair is holding just above the round number late in Asia, about 90 minutes before London open, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR(14) at only ~2.5 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69933, 0.69863
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
A slip back below the 0.7000 round number and then the 0.6993 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the Asia trendline
An M15 close above the 0.7003 session high puts the 0.7020 range top in play
A deeper pullback into the 38.2–61.8% retracement of the Asia leg (0.6995–0.6990) would put the 0.6986 prior high up for a retest
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; 0.7000 has rejected the pair repeatedly
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.7000 · RSI 70 · price 0.7002
HH/HL chain through Asia, marginal break above 0.7000.
The Asia session cleared Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high after the hot China PPI print, then pushed through the 0.7000 psych cap to a 0.7003 session high. The 0.6993 swing low held as a higher low, and price is sitting just above 0.7000 into London open with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6993, 0.6986
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.7000 psych turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6993 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Clearance of the 0.7003 session high opens 0.7020, the range top cited in the digest
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
HH/HL chain through Asia session, testing session high at the 0.7000 psych cap.
Asia session built a clean higher-low chain off the 0.6976 rollover low, helped by the China PPI beat and a softer USD. Price is now at the 0.7002 session high, right at the 0.7000 psych cap that has rejected the pair repeatedly. RSI(14) is near 73 and ATR is compressed at about 2.6 pips with London open roughly two hours away; Tuesday's prior high at 0.6986 sits at the 61.8% of the Asia leg.
Support: 0.69933, 0.69862, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.70018, 0.7002
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7002 session high puts the 0.7020 range top in play
Break of the Asia trendline (~0.6997) and the 0.6993 swing low ends the HL chain, exposing the 0.6986 prior high / 61.8% of the Asia leg
Loss of the 0.6976 rollover low unwinds the full Asia advance
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an earlier risk
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, testing 0.7000 cap · RSI 72 · price 0.70018
Higher highs and higher lows through the Asian session, now probing above psych 0.7000.
Asian session extended Tuesday's grind higher. The China PPI beat lifted AUD through the 0.6986 prior high, and price is now printing a 0.7002 session high just above the 0.7000 psych cap. The 0.6993 swing low and the rising Asia trendline underpin the higher-low chain, with RSI(14) short-term hot near 72.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69933, 0.69862
Resistance: 0.7002, 0.7020
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 0.7000 psych turns the break into a false break at a level that has repeatedly capped
Failure to hold the 0.6993 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.6986 prior high
Acceptance above the 0.7002 session high puts the 0.7020 range top in play
London open liquidity could test the thin Asia breakout
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.7000 · RSI 69 · price 0.69986
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, shallow pullback holding.
The Asia session extended the rise from the rollover low at 0.6976, clearing the prior high at 0.6986 as the China PPI beat added a tailwind. The asia high at 0.7000 met a first rejection, but the pullback held the 0.6993 swing low and the Asia trendline. Price is back near 0.7000 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.69933, 0.69863, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.70003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7000 asia high clears the repeated cap; the 0.7020 range top is the next reference
A break of the 0.6993 swing low and the Asia trendline would leave 0.7000 as a lower-high rejection
The prior high at 0.6986 sits at the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib; losing it exposes the 0.6976 rollover low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.7000 · RSI 66 · price 0.69983
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia; rejection at 0.7000, higher low at 0.6993.
Asia session extended the climb from the 0.6976 rollover low to a 0.7000 session high, then rejected back to a 0.6993 higher low that sits on the Asia trendline, with RSI(14) near 66. Softer UST yields and the China PPI beat explain the AUD bid, but 0.7000 continues to cap ahead of US CPI, with the 0.6986 prior high from NY hours below.
Support: 0.69933, 0.69863, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.70003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 session high opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
Close below the 0.6993 higher low and the Asia trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, putting the 0.6986 prior high in focus
Loss of the 0.6976 rollover low unwinds the full Asia leg
London open in ~3h may set a new range against the Asian high/low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 65 · price 0.69949
Higher highs and lows through Asia, shallow pullback after the 0.7000 rejection.
Asia session extended Tuesday's advance on the hot China PPI print. Price cleared the 0.6986 prior high and tagged 0.7000 psych before a rejection pulled it back to 0.6995. The 0.6993 pullback low sits on the rising trendline from the 0.6976 asia low, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 65.
Support: 0.69933, 0.69863, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.70003, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6993 pullback low and rising trendline breaks the Asia rally HH/HL chain, exposing the 0.6986 prior high
M15 close above 0.7000 psych opens the 0.7020 range top
Fed's Bowman (09:40 GMT) and US CPI (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 62 · price 0.69945
Asia HH/HL chain capped at 0.7000, pulling back to rising trendline.
Asia session pushed through the 0.6986 prior high on hot China PPI and a softer USD, but the 0.7000 round number rejected the move at 02:45 UTC. Price is now easing back to the 0.6992 breakout pt and testing the Asia trendline near 0.6995, with RSI(14) cooling to 62.
Support: 0.6992, 0.6986, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asia trendline and 0.6992 breakout pt exposes the 0.6986 prior high, near the fib 50–61.8% zone
Failure to hold 0.6986 puts the 0.6976 rollover low back in play
M15 close above the 0.7000 round number opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 70 · price 0.69965
HH/HL chain since the 0.6976 swing low; Asia breakout above the Tue high, capped at the round number.
Asia session extended Tuesday's London-NY grind higher on the firm China PPI print and a softer USD tone. Price cleared the 0.6986 tue high, tagged the 0.7000 session high and was rejected there. The HH/HL chain is still intact above the 0.6993 breakout base, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR(14) tight at about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.6993, 0.6986, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 session high opens the 0.7020 range top
Close back below the 0.6993 breakout base puts the 0.6986 tue high and the rising trendline in play
Loss of the 0.6976 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could shift the read ahead of London
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main event risk for the 0.7000 cap
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into 0.7000 · RSI 79 · price 0.69988
Higher lows through Asia session, prior high broken, first test of 0.7000 capped.
Asia session carried AUDUSD from the 0.6976 rollover low through yesterday's 0.6986 prior high, with a 02:30 UTC breakout bar off 0.6993. Softer UST yields and the China PPI beat provided the tailwind. The first print at the 0.7000 psych level stalled at 0.70003, with RSI(14) near 79 and ATR(14) only about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.6993, 0.6986, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6993 breakout bar base puts the move back into the 0.6986 prior high zone, near the 50–61.8% of the Asia leg
Loss of the Asia trendline and of the 0.6976 rollover low would break the higher-low chain
Sustained trade above 0.7000 psych opens the 0.7020 range top cited by UOB
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.7000 · RSI 79 · price 0.69974
HH/HL chain through Asia, above prior session high.
Mid-Asia session, the pair cleared yesterday's 0.6986 prior high and extended toward 0.6998 after the China PPI beat, now just under the 0.7000 psych level that has capped repeatedly. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched. Rising support from the 0.6976 rollover low is intact, and the Asian leg holds above the 0.6990 swing low.
Support: 0.6990, 0.6986, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Rejection at 0.7000 psych would put the 0.6990 swing low and the Asian leg 38.2% retracement in focus
M15 close above 0.7000 opens the path to the 0.7020 range cap
Failure to hold the 0.6986 prior high and rising support breaks the HH/HL chain toward the 0.6976 rollover low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into 0.7000 · RSI 79 · price 0.69975
Asian breakout above prior high, HH/HL chain intact.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high, retested it at 01:15 UTC and extended to a 0.6998 session high. Price is now pressing the 0.7000 round number, which has rejected repeatedly this week, as the USD softens after Williams' no-hike remark and firm China CPI/PPI. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched against a 2.6-pip ATR, and the rising trendline from the asian low carries the move.
Support: 0.69862, 0.69813, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69982, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 round number opens the 0.7020 range top
Rejection at 0.7000 with a close back below the 0.6986 prior high marks a false break
A break of the rising trendline and a loss of the 0.6990 midpoint of the Asian leg would erode the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.6981 asian low exposes the 0.6976 swing low from the rollover
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain in Asia; broke above prior NY high at 0.6986.
Asia session extended Tuesday's grind higher off the 0.6976 rollover low, clearing the 0.6986 prior NY high and printing a session high at 0.6994 with RSI(14) near 76. The softer USD after Williams' remarks and firm China data are behind the bid, with the 0.7000 round number, rejected repeatedly this week, now about 6 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69862, 0.69813, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69937, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7000 round number breaks the cap that has held all week
Slip back below the 0.6986 prior NY high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.6981 asian low breaks the HH/HL chain; the 0.6976 rollover low is the next support
Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC and US CPI is due at 12:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Rising trendline from the rollover low: an M15 close below it ends the Asia swing sequence
HH/HL chain off the rollover dip; prior high 0.6986 broken and retested in Asia.
Asia session pushed through the prior high at 0.6986, retested it, then printed a session high at 0.6993 along a rising Asia trendline from the 0.6982 swing low. RSI(14) is near 71, hot but not stretched. The move tracks the softer USD tone after yields eased and Williams flagged limited tightening, with the 0.7000 round number just overhead.
Support: 0.69862, 0.69818, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
0.7000 round number: area to watch for rejection or break; a close above extends the HH chain
M15 close back below the 0.6986 prior high negates the breakout and puts the 0.6982 swing low (fib 61.8%) in focus
Break of the Asia trendline, then loss of the 0.6976 range low, ends the higher-low sequence
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 75 · price 0.69915
HH/HL chain off rollover low, prior high broken and retested.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high, retested it at 01:15 UTC and is printing a fresh session high at 0.69915, extending the leg from the 0.6976 rollover low on the softer post-Williams USD tone. RSI(14) near 75 is warm but not extreme. The 0.7000 cap sits 8.5 pips above, and the rising trendline from the Asian low is intact.
Support: 0.69862, 0.69813, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69915, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6986 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 0.6981 asian low back in view
A break of the rising trendline weakens the HH/HL read
Rejection at the 0.7000 cap would confirm the range top; an M15 close above it extends the breakout
Loss of the 0.6976 rollover low erases the full Asia leg and fib retracement
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 0.69893
Higher lows through Asia; prior-day high broken and retested.
Asia session built higher lows off the 0.6976 session low post-rollover. It then cleared the 0.6986 prior high to a 0.6990 session high, with the retest of the prior high holding, as USD stays softer on eased yields and Williams' limited-tightening view. RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not stretched, and ranges are tight at about 2-3 pips per bar.
Support: 0.69862, 0.69818, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69905, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.6986 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.6982 asia pivot breaks the asia trend of higher lows
0.7000 round number is the digest's range cap, an area to watch for rejection or break above the 0.6990 session high
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast is 0.2%
Break of the 0.6976 session low erases the Asia leg
Higher lows from 0.6976 swing low, NY high broken in Asia.
Asia session extended Tuesday's USD-led recovery on softer yields. Price cleared the 0.6986 NY high and printed a session high at 0.6990, just under the 0.7000 psych cap. Higher lows off the 0.6976 swing low are intact; RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) is about 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.69863, 0.6982, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69905, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.7000 psych cap fits the week's repeated failures at that level
M15 close back below the 0.6986 ny high marks the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.6982 asia base breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6976 swing low
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia; Tuesday high at 0.6986 broken, holding just above.
The post-rollover dip to the 0.6976 session low held, and the Asia leg built rising lows through the 0.6981 swing low before clearing Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high to print a 0.6990 session high. The move extends Tuesday's USD-led recovery on lower Treasury yields. The first pullback from 0.6990 is shallow, RSI(14) has cooled to ~62, and the 0.7000 psych cap sits 10 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69863, 0.69813, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69905, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.6986 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6981 swing low breaks the Asia rising lows and pulls the 0.6976 session low into view
A test of 0.7000 psych is the next area to watch for rejection or break; a close above the 0.6990 session high opens it
China CPI in Asia hours could jolt AUD; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
HH/HL chain; early Wed Asia breakout above Tuesday's 0.6986 prior high.
Tuesday's London and NY sessions lifted AUDUSD out of the 0.6951–0.6962 Asian range to a 0.6986 prior high, a USD-led move as Williams' comments pulled yields lower. After a dip to the 0.6976 rollover low, early Wed Asia broke above that high and is pressing a 0.6990 session high, 10 pips under the 0.7000 psych cap, with RSI(14) near 71 and the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.69863, 0.69815, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69904, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.7000 psych cap would put the 0.6986 prior high up for a retest
M15 close back below the 0.6982 asia base negates the breakout
Loss of the 0.6976 rollover low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain; the rally fib 38.2% sits near 0.6975
A sustained break of 0.7000 opens the 0.7020 range top
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 73 · price 0.69885
Asia break above the 0.6986 prior high, HL chain off 0.6976.
Early Asia session pushed through the 0.6986 prior high to a 0.6989 session high, building higher lows off the 0.6976 double swing low as the USD eases after Williams' softer remarks. Price is now testing the top of the 0.6982 asian range breakout, with the 0.7000 psych cap 11 pips above. RSI(14) at 73 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.6986, 0.6982, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6986 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6982 asian range base breaks the rising trendline from the 0.6976 swing low
0.7000 psych is the next level, an area to watch for rejection or break
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 67 · price 0.69859
10-pip range 0.6976–0.6986 capping the prior higher-low rally.
The rally from the 0.6951 Asian low ran through London and NY as USD eased on Williams' softer Fed remarks. It stalled at 0.6986, and price has held a 0.6976–0.6986 range since; the rollover dip to the range floor was bought. Early Asia is now testing the range top for a third time off a 0.6982 asia shelf, with RSI(14) at 67 and ATR near 2 pips.
Support: 0.6982, 0.6976
Resistance: 0.69864, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6986 range top opens the path to 0.7000 psych
Loss of the 0.6982 asia shelf puts the 0.6976 range floor back in play; a break there ends the higher-low sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a range · RSI 60 · price 0.69853
0.6976–0.6986 range since NY open, early Asia retesting the top.
London broke the prior Asian range high and lifted AUD/USD from 0.6950 to 0.6986, helped by softer Treasury yields after the hawkish RBA minutes. Since the NY open price has held a 0.6976–0.6986 range, and the rollover dip to the range floor was bought back. Early Asia is pressing the range top from the 0.6982 asia base, with ATR near 2.3 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at 60.
Support: 0.6982, 0.69762
Resistance: 0.69863, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6986 range top breaks the range and opens the 0.7000 psych cap
Loss of the 0.6982 asia base returns price to the middle of the range
Break below 0.6976 range floor turns the range into a lower-low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 50 · price 0.69821
Post-breakout consolidation 0.6976–0.6986 after Asian range break.
London broke Tuesday's Asian range (0.6950–0.6967) and NY extended the leg to a 0.6986 day high as USD eased on lower yields, still capped below 0.7000 psych. Since then price has compressed between 0.6976 and 0.6986, with the thin rollover low at 0.6976 recovered. Early Asia is sitting flat on EMA20, RSI(14) at 50 and ATR near 2 pips.
Support: 0.69762, 0.69746
Resistance: 0.69863, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today is likely to decide the break of the 0.6976–0.6986 box
M15 close above 0.6986 day high opens a test of 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low exposes the 0.6975 london high and the 23.6% fib of the rally
Sustained trade below the 38.2% fib near 0.6972 would undo most of the London breakout