Tight late-NY range 0.6915–0.6922 under the NY high.
The -39.3K AU jobs miss broke the pair lower in Asia, and the US PPI/retail release extended the drop to a 0.6894 day low during NY. The rebound has stalled at the 50% retrace of the London leg, with early-Asia trade compressing in a 0.6915–0.6922 range under the 0.6924 NY high. RSI(14) is flat near 47.
Support: 0.69147, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69434
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high (near the 61.8% retrace) breaks the range and puts the 0.6943 London high in play
Loss of the 0.6915 range low reopens the 0.6907 swing low, then the 0.6894 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Range after sharp intraday selloff · RSI 45 · price 0.69173
V-rebound off 0.6894 day low, now a tight 0.6915–0.6923 Asian range capped at the NY high.
AUD dropped from 0.6974 on the AU jobs miss and extended to a 0.6894 day low after the hot US PPI. A fading USD then lifted it to the 0.6924 NY high. Early Asia is pinned in a 0.6915–0.6923 range just under that NY high. Offers at 0.6922–0.6924 rejected price twice, RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR has compressed to under 3 pips.
Support: 0.69147, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69362
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read and break the compressed Asian range
M15 close below the 0.6915 rollover low exposes the 0.6907 ny swing low, then the 0.6894 day low
Holding the 0.6907 ny swing low (~56% of the ny rally fib) keeps the higher-low structure off the day low intact
Close above the 0.6924 ny high clears the range top; the 0.6936 broken shelf (cited 0.6935 support) sits next overhead
Tight early-Asia range 0.6915–0.6922 beneath the 0.6924 NY high.
AUD/USD slid 86 pips from 0.6980 to a 0.6894 NY low, driven first by the AU jobs miss and then by the US PPI/retail data. It retraced about 30% to the 0.6924 NY high and stalled below the 38.2% fib near 0.6927. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.6915–0.6922 range just above ema20, with ATR near 2 pips.
Support: 0.69147, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6936, 0.69448
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could break the 0.6915–0.6922 range and shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high and the 38.2% fib at 0.6927 opens the broken low at 0.6936, then the jobs low near 0.6945
Loss of the range floor at 0.6915 exposes the 0.6907 pullback low and the 0.6894 NY low
23:02 UTC
Post-jobs selloff paused, rebound off NY low stalling · RSI 55 · price 0.69198
Higher low at 0.6907, compressing under 0.6924 NY high.
AUD/USD fell from 0.6980 after the 00:30 UTC AU jobs miss and extended to a 0.6894 NY low around the US data dump. It then rebounded about 30 pips as USD faded on falling yields, leaving a higher low at 0.6907. Early Asia is compressing just below the 0.6924 NY high, which capped price twice after 22:00 UTC; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR has shrunk to ~2.4 pips.
Support: 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.6945 jobs low
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low reopens the 0.6894 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6894, tight range under 0.6924 data high.
AUD dropped from 0.6980 on the jobs miss and slid through London to a 0.6894 day low after the US data, then recovered as USD faded on falling yields. Early Asia is coiling in a 0.6915–0.6924 range under the data high, with a higher low at 0.6907 and the 38.2% fib of the drop near 0.6927 overhead.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 data high and 38.2% fib opens the path to 0.6935 prior supp, now resistance
Break of the 0.6915 range floor puts the 0.6907 higher low and 0.6894 day low back in focus
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.6907 after 0.6894 low; tight 0.6915–0.6922 range.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC triggered a leg off 0.6980, and selling extended to the 0.6894 US data low before the post-PPI USD fade drove a rebound to the 0.6924 NY high. A higher low at 0.6907 held, and early Asia session is compressing in a roughly 7-pip band above the 0.6915 Asia low. Price sits just under the 38.2% retracement of the jobs-day drop, near 0.6927.
Support: 0.69147, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high and the 38.2% retracement opens the 0.6936 broken low
Loss of the 0.6907 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6894 US data low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could break the Asia range
22:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off day low · RSI 60 · price 0.69209
Higher low at 0.6907, compressing under NY high.
AUD dropped from 0.6980 on the AU jobs miss and hit a 0.6894 day low on the US data dump before the USD faded. The NY rebound built a higher low at 0.6907, and price is now compressing just under the 0.6924 NY high in thin early-Asia trade, sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the jobs selloff fib.
Support: 0.6915, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high opens 0.6935 broken supp near the 38.2% jobs selloff fib
Loss of the 0.6915 consol low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.6907 higher low and 0.6894 day low back in play
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend day, NY rebound building higher lows · RSI 62 · price 0.6921
Higher low at 0.6907 off 0.6894 day low; tight late-NY range testing 0.6924 cap.
AUD/USD dropped from 0.6974 on the 00:30 UTC jobs miss and printed a 0.6894 day low on the US data dump before the yield-led USD fade lifted it back. A 0.6907 higher low on the rising trendline has price pressing the 0.6924 post-NY high, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the 0.6943 swing high to day low leg, into a thin Asia open with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935, 0.6943
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 post-NY high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.6935 range floor, with the 0.6943 swing high above
Loss of the 0.6915 rollover low returns price to the late-NY range
Break below the 0.6907 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6894 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Post-selloff rebound, flat after NY close · RSI 54 · price 0.69196
Tight range 0.6915–0.6924 above a higher low.
The AU jobs miss broke the Asian range from 0.6980 and the slide ran through London to a day low at 0.6894 after the US data dump, before falling yields drove a NY rebound to 0.6924. Price set a higher low at 0.6907 and is now drifting in a thin 0.6915–0.6924 range after NY close, with the NY high capping a second time and broken supp at 0.6935 overhead.
Support: 0.6915, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6924 NY high exposes broken supp at 0.6935
Loss of the 0.6915 range low reopens the 0.6907 higher low, then the 0.6894 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Thin post-NY liquidity: range-low dips may be noise until the Asia session opens
Higher low off the day low, tight range under the NY high.
AUD broke from 0.6980 on the 00:30 UTC jobs miss and ground lower through London to a 0.6894 day low after the 12:30 UTC US data dump, before falling Treasury yields drove a bounce to the 0.6924 NY high. Since then a higher low at 0.6907 has held, and price is coiling at 0.6915–0.6921 between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib, with the rollover low at 0.6915 underneath.
Support: 0.69147, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC, during the Asia session, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6924 ny high exposes the 0.6935 broken supp and the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.6915 rollover low puts the 0.6907 higher low in focus; a break there reopens the 0.6894 day low
Higher low at 0.6907 after 0.6894 flush; compressing below 0.6924 NY high.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked the pair off 0.6980. London extended the slide through the 0.6945 Asia low, and the US data dump flushed it to a 0.6894 day low before the yield-led USD fade lifted it to the 0.6924 NY high. Late NY is compressing in a 0.6915–0.6921 band above a higher low at 0.6907, with ATR down near 3 pips at the rollover.
Support: 0.69153, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935, 0.69448
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6924 NY high opens the 38.2% fib near 0.6927 and the prior supp at 0.6935, with the 0.6945 Asia low above that
Loss of the late ny low at 0.6915 and then the 0.6907 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 0.6894 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC lands in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound off lows · RSI 63 · price 0.69208
Higher lows since 0.6894, pressing NY high.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC dropped the pair from 0.6980. London extended below the Asian low, and the US PPI release marked the session low at 0.6894. The dollar fade has since lifted price back above the 0.6908 higher low, and the rebound fib's upper half is retesting the 0.6924 NY high in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.69153, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69367
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high opens the path back toward the 0.6937 Asian low
Loss of the 0.6915 swing low, then the 0.6907 higher low, breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 0.6894 session low back in view
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC during Asia could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.6907, tight late-NY range under the NY high.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUD/USD off 0.6980 at the Asia open. The slide ran to a 0.6894 session low after the US data, before falling yields reversed the dollar. NY then printed a higher low at 0.6907, and price is now coiling in a 0.6915–0.6920 range just under the 0.6924 NY high, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR compressing.
Support: 0.69153, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935, 0.69434
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high brings the 38.2% jobs-drop fib (0.6927) and the 0.6935 pivot into play, with the London high at 0.6943 above that.
Loss of the 0.6915 range floor and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6907 higher low; a break there reopens the 0.6894 session low.
Hammack is speaking now (20:30 UTC). Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC is the high-impact catalyst and could materially shift this read during the Asia session.
Higher low at 0.6907, compressing below 0.6923 NY high.
The jobs-miss slide from 0.6980 bottomed at the 0.6894 session low after the US data, as the dollar faded the hot PPI on falling yields. The NY rebound has since printed a higher low at 0.6907. Late NY is compressing in a 0.6915–0.6920 band, with supply capping at the 0.6923 NY high for a third time; RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR is only 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6923 NY high opens 0.6935, prior support from the jobs breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low exposes the 0.6894 session low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (Asia session) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.6907, late-NY compression 0.6915–0.6920 below NY high.
AUD/USD broke down from 0.6974 on the 00:30 UTC jobs miss, cut through the Asian range in London and printed a 0.6894 day low after the hot US PPI. A higher low at 0.6907 has since formed, and late-NY price is compressing in a 0.6915–0.6920 range at the 50% retrace, just under the 0.6924 NY high.
Support: 0.69153, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high opens a retest of 0.6935 prior supp, the broken London base
Loss of the 0.6915 range low and then the 0.6907 higher low reopens the 0.6894 day low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 61 · price 0.69195
Higher low at 0.6907, compressing under NY high 0.6924.
AUD dropped from 0.6980 on the jobs miss and extended to a 0.6894 session low after the hot US PPI and retail sales data. The USD fade on falling yields then produced a 0.6924 NY high and a 0.6907 higher low. Late NY is compressing between the 0.6915 late-NY low and the NY high, just below the fib 38.2 of the full decline, with the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.69153, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high and the 0.6927 fib 38.2 breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.6935 broken support sits above
Loss of the 0.6915 late-NY low exposes the 0.6907 higher low; a break there reopens the 0.6894 session low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.6907 under a lower high at 0.6920, compressing.
The 00:30 UTC AU jobs miss broke the day lower from 0.6980, and selling extended into NY, where the hot US PPI spike printed a 0.6894 NY low. A yield-led USD fade then lifted price to a 0.6924 bounce high, about a third of the jobs-day drop. Late NY is now compressing between the 0.6907 higher low and the 0.6920 late-NY high, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR down to roughly 3 pips.
Support: 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69196, 0.69236
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and extends the retracement of the jobs-day drop
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low reopens the 0.6894 NY low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off day low, capped below rebound high.
The AUD jobs miss at the start of the Asia session broke price off the 0.6980 high. The hot US PPI and retail print in the first hour of NY then extended the slide to a 0.6894 day low. The rebound since has printed a higher low at 0.6907 under the 0.6924 rebound high, and price is now coiling in a 0.6917–0.6920 late range, just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.6917, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 rebound high opens the 38.2% day-range fib at 0.6927 and the broken supp at 0.6935
Failure to hold the late range at 0.6917 and then the 0.6907 higher low negates the rebound structure and exposes the 0.6894 day low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC (Asia session) could materially shift this read
AUDUSD fell from 0.6980 on the 00:30 UTC AU jobs miss and printed a 0.6894 session low on the 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales burst, before rebounding as the USD faded on lower yields. Late NY trade is coiling just under the 0.6924 bounce high and EMA50, with a higher low at 0.6907. Price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the jobs-day drop, and RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 bounce high clears EMA50 and opens a test of 0.6935 broken supp
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6894 session low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off NY low · RSI 54 · price 0.69177
Higher low at 0.6907 under the 0.6924 NY high; late-NY consolidation.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC broke the 0.6975 area and the slide ran through London. Hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC extended it to a 0.6894 session low before USD faded with yields. Price has since printed a higher low at 0.6907 and is now pressing the 0.6924 ny high, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 ny high extends the higher-low sequence and opens 0.6935 prior supp, the broken UOB level
Break back below the 0.6907 higher low exposes the 0.6894 session low and resumes the lower-low chain
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6960 Asian high; higher low at 0.6907 off the 0.6894 day low.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUDUSD off 0.6980 in Asia. London then broke the 0.6945 Asian range low, and hot US PPI extended the slide to the 0.6894 day low. USD faded after the data, leaving a higher low at 0.6907 after London close. Price now sits at 0.6920, on the 38.2% fib of the drop and just under the 0.6924 NY high, with the 50-EMA overhead.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high opens the 50% drop fib near 0.6927 and prior supp at 0.6935
Loss of the 0.6907 higher low puts the 0.6894 day low back in play
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, base forming off NY low · RSI 51 · price 0.69177
Lower-high sequence from 0.6980; higher low at 0.6907 under 0.6924 cap.
AUD/USD broke down from 0.6980 on the Asia-session jobs miss and extended to a 0.6894 NY low after the hot US PPI and retail data, then rebounded as the dollar faded on falling yields. Late NY, after London close, price sits just under the 0.6924 NY high, which has capped twice, with a higher low at 0.6907 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high brings 0.6935 broken supp into play as resistance
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low exposes the 0.6894 NY low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia into a 0.6894 NY low, higher low at 0.6907 since.
AUD broke below the Asian range after the jobs miss and slid through London to a 0.6894 session low after the hot US PPI and retail print. The NY rebound has carried price back to the 38.2% fib of the London leg, with a higher low at 0.6907 below and the 0.6924 NY high capping the late-NY range.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 NY high breaks the late-NY range and brings the 0.6935 uob pivot into view
Failure to hold the 0.6907 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 0.6894 session low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing in late NY · RSI 54 · price 0.69165
Lower highs from 0.6980; NY higher low at 0.6907 under 0.6924 NY high.
AUD/USD has bled from the 0.6980 Asian high since the AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC. London broke the asian low near 0.6945, and the US PPI spike printed a 0.6894 session low before a short-covering bounce as USD faded. Late NY is compressing between a 0.6907 higher low and the 0.6924 ny high, where EMA50 also sits; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6945
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6945 asian low (prior range floor) in play
Loss of the 0.6907 higher low reopens the 0.6894 session low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6980; higher low at 0.6907 after 0.6894 low.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUD/USD from 0.6980 in Asia, and London extended the slide. The hot US PPI print set the session low at 0.6894, but USD faded on lower yields and the rebound stalled with a rejection at 0.6924. After London close the pair is consolidating at 0.6907–0.6914, holding a pullback low near the 50–61.8% retracement of the bounce. Price sits on EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts prior support at 0.6935 in view
Loss of the 0.6907 pullback low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6894 session low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the Asia jobs gap-down; base forming at 0.6907.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUD/USD about 30 pips lower at the Asia open, and London extended the slide to a 0.6894 session low after the hot US PPI. The NY bounce on a softer dollar stalled at the 0.6924 bounce high, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY leg. After London close, price is drifting sideways above a 0.6907 intraday base.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace and puts the 0.6935 broken support in play
Failure to hold the 0.6907 intraday base reopens the 0.6894 session low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce faded · RSI 41 · price 0.69076
Lower highs and lower lows since the jobs data; post-PPI bounce capped at fib 61.8.
The AU jobs miss broke the Asian range high of 0.6980 at 00:30 UTC, and selling extended through London to a 0.6894 session low after the US PPI/retail release. The NY bounce stalled at the fib 61.8 near 0.6924. Price has since slid back to 0.6907 after London close, printing a lower high at 0.6911, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69113, 0.69236
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6900 round number puts the 0.6894 session low back in play; losing it extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 0.6911 lower high, then above the fib 61.8 at 0.6924, would undercut the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could move the pair in thin late-NY trade
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri is the high-impact catalyst for the Asia session
Lower highs; NY rebound capped at 0.6924, price back at its 50% retrace.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC cut AUD to the 0.6945 Asian low, London extended the slide, and US PPI wicked price to the 0.6894 NY low. The USD fade lifted it to a lower high at 0.6924 on the falling trend, and price is now pinned near the late NY low and the 50% retrace of that rebound.
Support: 0.69075, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6907 late NY low exposes the 0.6894 NY low
Close above the 0.6924 lower high breaks the falling trend and puts the 0.6945 Asian low in view
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 0.69103
Lower highs from 0.6980; NY bounce capped below 38.2% fib.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC broke the Asian range down from 0.6980, and selling extended through London. Hot US PPI then drove a dip to the NY low at 0.6894 before a rebound stalled at the NY high of 0.6924, just under the 38.2% fib. Price has eased back to the late NY low near 0.6907, holding above the 0.6900 round number.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6900, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6945
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6894 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 0.6924 NY high negates the 38.2% fib rejection and puts the 0.6945 jobs low in view
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce from NY low fading · RSI 47 · price 0.69084
Lower-high/lower-low chain intact; rebound capped at 0.6924, now back at the 50% retrace.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC broke the Asian range from 0.6980 toward 0.6945. London extended the slide, and the hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC produced the NY low at 0.6894. The rebound stalled at 0.6924, a rejection just under the London swing that left a lower high, and late-NY price has slipped back through the London low at 0.6913 to sit on the 50% retrace near 0.6908, with fib 61.8 at 0.6905 next.
Support: 0.69052, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69131, 0.69236
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 0.6905 exposes the NY low at 0.6894; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the London low at 0.6913 and then the 0.6924 rebound high breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lows; NY bounce off 0.6894 fading under EMA20.
The AU jobs miss knocked price from 0.6980 into a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range. London extended lower, and the hot US PPI print produced a 0.6894 NY low. A USD fade on softer yields lifted price to a 0.6924 rebound high, and that bounce is now retracing below EMA20 toward the 50% fib at 0.6909, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 0.6909, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6936
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.6909 exposes the 0.6894 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Recovery through the 0.6924 rebound high puts the 0.6936 prior floor (London open lows) back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.69147
Lower highs from Asia; NY rebound capped below 38.2% retracement.
The selloff began with the AU jobs miss, which knocked price off 0.6980 in Asia, and London extended it with lower highs. The US PPI print briefly swept 0.6900 to a 0.6894 day low before fading USD yields lifted price to a 0.6924 NY high. That bounce stalled short of the 38.2% fib at 0.6927, and price is now back on the 23.6% fib at 0.6914 after London close.
Support: 0.69138, 0.6900, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268, 0.69358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 ny high and 38.2% fib at 0.6927 opens the london pivot at 0.6936
Failure to hold the 23.6% fib at 0.6914 puts the 0.6900 round number back in play
Break below the 0.6894 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 53 · price 0.69151
Lower highs from 0.6980; NY bounce capped below fib 38.2.
AUD/USD bled about 86 pips from the 0.6980 Asia high after the AU jobs miss, then carved lower highs into a 0.6894 day low after the US PPI print. The NY rebound cleared the descending trendline as Treasury yields pulled back, but it stalled at the 0.6924 bounce high, just shy of the fib 38.2 at 0.6927. Price is now easing back toward the 0.6913 london low with London close approaching.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268, 0.69434
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 38.2 at 0.6927 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6943 swing high in play
Failure to hold the 0.6913 london low exposes the 0.6900 round number and the 0.6894 day low
A break below the 0.6894 day low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 54 · price 0.69198
Triple bottom at 0.6894, London trendline broken, testing ny high.
AUD slid from 0.6980 on the Asia-session jobs miss and London extended it, but the post-PPI day low at 0.6894 held three tests. NY broke the London trendline as US yields reversed, and price now sits at the 0.6924 ny high, just under the ema50 and 38.2% fib near 0.6927, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69131, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6927, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6927 (ema50 / 38.2% fib) opens the 0.6935 prior floor
Slip back below the 0.6913 london low revives the downtrend toward the 0.6894 day low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone
Lower highs and lows since jobs drop; V-bounce off NY low.
The AU jobs miss drove the slide from the 0.6980 Asia high, which broke the Asian range and extended to a 0.6894 NY low after the US PPI print. Fading yields then softened USD, and a 30-pip mid-NY rebound is now pressing the 0.6924 swing high, just under the 38.2% fib and EMA50 near 0.6927.
Support: 0.69143, 0.6900, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268, 0.69362
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6927 (38.2% fib / EMA50) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6936 prior low in play
Rejection at the 0.6924 swing high and a loss of the 0.6914 London low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.6900 round number and the 0.6894 NY low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; 27-pip rebound off the session low into the falling trendline.
The AU jobs miss knocked price off the 0.6980 Asian high, and London broke the Asian range low. The hot US PPI and retail sales then pushed price to a 0.6894 session low before a NY bounce lifted it to 0.6921, just under the 0.6923 swing high and the falling trendline. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-40s from the selloff, and price is back above the 0.6913 london low.
Support: 0.69131, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69227, 0.6935
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6923 swing high and falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 0.6935 broken supp
Rejection at the trendline and a loss of 0.6913 london low would put the 0.6894 session low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce off session low · RSI 49 · price 0.69148
Lower highs from 0.6980; falling line broken on bounce.
AUD fell about 85 pips from 0.6980 after the jobs miss and London follow-through, reaching a 0.6894 NY low after the hot US PPI. Buyers stepped in three times there, and the bounce has broken the falling line off the London highs. Price is testing the 23.6% selloff fib near 0.6914, back above the ema20 but still below the 0.6923 swing high.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6923, 0.6935
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.6910 ema20 reopens the 0.6894 NY low
Break below the 0.6894 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6923 swing high exposes 0.6935, the prior floor now acting as resistance
Fed's Hammack (20:30 GMT) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) could shift USD tone and this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.6908
Lower highs since the 00:30 GMT jobs drop; base at 0.6894.
AUD gapped from 0.6980 to 0.6945 on the 00:30 GMT jobs miss, and London extended the lower-high chain. The hot US PPI at 12:30 GMT pushed price through the 0.6900 round number. Three tests of the 0.6894 session low held, and the first hour of NY bounced to the post-PPI high at 0.6914, where the descending lower-highs line and the 23.6% retracement of the jobs-to-PPI leg also sit.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6914, 0.6923
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6923 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number reopens the 0.6894 session low
Close below 0.6894 resumes the post-PPI leg lower
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could shift USD reaction to PPI
Lower highs since London; tight base 0.6894–0.6905.
The AU jobs miss broke AUD lower in Asia, and London then lost the asian low at 0.6945. The hot US PPI at 12:30 GMT extended the slide to a 0.6894 session low. Early NY is basing just above the 0.6900 round number under the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.69143, 0.69227, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6894 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6914 ppi high, the 38.2% of the London leg, clears the lower-high trendline; the 0.6923 swing high is next
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range break.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 GMT broke the Asian range from 0.6980. Price has since printed lower highs, and the hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT pushed it through the 0.6913 London low to a session low at 0.6894. Early in the NY session price is pinned at the 0.6900 psych level, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68944
Resistance: 0.69131, 0.69227
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6913 London low would mark the post-data break as failed
Failure to hold the 0.6894 session low extends the lower-high sequence; the lower-highs trendline now sits near 0.6909, with the 0.6923 swing high above
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, NY extending.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUD out of the Asian range, and London extended through the 0.6945 Asian low; the hot US PPI at the NY open spiked to 0.6914 (ppi high) before sellers pushed a fresh session low at 0.6895. Price is now holding the 0.6900 psych level in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 31 and lower highs still capped beneath the descending trendline from 0.6943.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68952
Resistance: 0.69143, 0.69227
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6895 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.6914 ppi high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.6923 london high next
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could shift USD tone ahead of Warsh on Friday
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after PPI spike · RSI 26 · price 0.6904
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
The 00:30 UTC AU jobs miss started the leg lower. The Asian low at 0.6944 gave way around 06:00 UTC, and London then printed a clean chain of lower highs under a descending trendline. Hot US PPI pushed price briefly through 0.6900 psych to a 0.6899 NY low in the first hour of NY before a bounce to 0.6904, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68993
Resistance: 0.69143, 0.69227, 0.69445
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.6914 ppi spike high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
A recovery through the 0.6923 lower high shifts the read toward a bounce back toward the 0.6944 asian low
Sustained trade below 0.6900 psych and the 0.6899 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could reprice USD after the PPI beat
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke; first NY hour testing 0.6900.
The 00:30 UTC AU jobs miss (-39.3K) broke the Asian range, and London extended lower highs from the 0.6943 london high to the 0.6923 swing high. The 12:30 UTC US data bar spiked to a 0.6899 data low and was rejected back above 0.6900. Price now sits just under the 0.6914 broken low, RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 0.68993
Resistance: 0.69143, 0.69227, 0.69434
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6899 data low extends the lower-low chain beneath 0.6900.
A reclaim of the 0.6914 broken low, then the 0.6923 swing high (near the 50% fib of the London leg), would test the lower-high trendline.
A close above the 0.6943 london high breaks the lower-high sequence.
Follow-through from the US PPI and retail sales releases during NY hours could reshape the read; Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday.
LH/LL chain from Asian high; US data spike tagged 0.6900 and was rejected.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUD from the 0.6980 Asian high to 0.6945. London broke that Asian low and carved lower highs under a descending trendline down to the 0.6913 london low. The 12:30 UTC US data bar spiked to the 0.6900 psych level and drew a rejection back to 0.6909, with RSI(14) near 29 and not yet extreme.
Support: 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6913, 0.6923, 0.6945
What it said to watch
The US PPI/retail bar is still forming. A close back below 0.6900 psych extends the lower-low chain.
A reclaim of 0.6913 london low, then a close above the 0.6923 swing high and the trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence.
The 0.6945 asian low marks the ceiling of the broken Asian range if a broader USD fade develops.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked the pair from 0.6980 into a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range. London broke the Asian low at 0.6945 and has since printed a lower-high chain, with supply capping at the 0.6923 lower high and a fresh session low at 0.6908. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, with US PPI and retail sales minutes away.
Support: 0.69084, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69131, 0.69227, 0.69445
What it said to watch
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.6913 prior low would show the latest breakdown stalling
M15 close above the 0.6923 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number extends the session low sequence
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into US data · RSI 26 · price 0.69097
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open break of the Asian range.
The Asian range set after the AU jobs miss (0.69445 asian low) gave way into the London open. Since then price has carved a clean lower-high chain through the 0.6935 broken sup and is pressing the 0.6910 session low in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 26 ahead of US PPI and Retail Sales.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69227, 0.6935, 0.69445
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.6923 lower high breaks the descending lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6910 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
A recovery back above the 0.6935 broken sup would turn the London move into a false break; the 0.6945 asian low sits just above
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke at London open.
AUD extended its post-jobs-miss slide into London. Price broke the 0.6945 Asian low and the 0.6935 pivot, then printed a 0.6913 session low. The bounce high at 0.6923 sits at the 23.6% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 32, and price is consolidating ahead of US PPI and Retail Sales.
Support: 0.6913, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6923, 0.6935, 0.6945
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
Close back above the 0.6935 pivot invalidates the London breakdown
Break of the 0.6913 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 round number
Close above the 0.6923 bounce high puts the 38.2% retracement near 0.6930 in play
Lower highs through London, Asian range broken, shallow bounce.
The jobs-miss drop at 00:30 UTC set an Asian range above its 0.6945 low. London broke that low, then cut through the 0.6935 uob support level, which the digest still has in focus, and printed a 0.6913 session low. The late-London bounce stalled at 0.6923, a bounce high just under the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6913, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6923, 0.6935, 0.6945
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~60 min) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
M15 close back above the 0.6935 uob support, now overhead, negates the London breakdown
Bounce high at 0.6923 sits near the 38.2% of the London leg; rejection there keeps the lower-high chain intact
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off session low · RSI 36 · price 0.69222
Lower highs and lower lows since the London break of the Asian range.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUDUSD into a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range. The London selloff then broke the Asian low and printed a lower-high chain down to the 0.6913 session low. Price is now bouncing toward 0.6922, still under EMA20 near 0.6928 and capped by the 0.6931 lower high, which sits at the 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6931 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and stalls the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.6945 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and marks the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low extends the leg toward the 0.6900 psych level
US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 35 · price 0.69205
Lower highs and lower lows since Asian range broke lower in London.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD off its 0.6980 Asian high. London then broke the 0.6945 Asian low and printed lower highs under the London down TL to a session low at 0.6913. The pair is now bouncing toward the 0.6927 prior shelf, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69268, 0.69445
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 0.6927 prior shelf and the London down TL breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Reclaiming the 0.6945 Asian low would neutralise the London range break
38.2% fib retrace of the London slide sits near 0.6931, just above the prior shelf
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, small bounce · RSI 24 · price 0.69184
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since.
AUD has stayed heavy since the AU jobs miss. London broke the post-data Asian low at 0.6944, and the bounce to that level was capped. Lower highs then stepped down to a session low at 0.6913, while RSI(14) holds near 24 and price presses the descending trendline.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69307, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 0.6931 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low opens the 0.6900 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6944 Asian low would neutralise the range break
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 26 · price 0.69174
Asian range broken lower, stepwise lower highs and lower lows.
The AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.6980 to the 0.6945 asian low. London broke that Asian range and extended the post-jobs leg through the 0.6935 support to a session low at 0.6913, printing lower highs all morning. RSI(14) is near 26 and the 0.6926 broken shelf sits overhead, with price stalling just above the low into the late London morning.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69265, 0.69445
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the USD side has been fading data surprises
M15 close back above the 0.6926 broken shelf and the lower-highs trendline breaks the London sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low exposes the 0.6900 psych level
Recovery into the 0.6945 asian low, near the 38.2% of the post-jobs leg, is the area to monitor for rejection or break
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.69155
Lower highs and lower lows through London after a break of the Asian range low.
The miss in the AU jobs report at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.6980 to 0.6945, and London then broke the Asian low at 0.69445, grinding through 0.6935 to a session low at 0.69131. Each bounce has stalled lower, with the latest lower high at 0.69307. RSI(14) near 21 shows the slide is stretched, but no reversal structure has formed yet.
Support: 0.69131, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69307, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69307 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.69445 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.69131 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.69163
Lower highs and lower lows through London after Asian range break.
The AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K f/c) at 00:30 UTC knocked price from 0.6980 to the 0.6945 Asian low. London broke that range and sliced through 0.6935, printing a lower-high chain capped by the 0.6931 lower high, to a fresh session low at 0.6916. RSI(14) near 21 is deeply oversold, with 0.6900 psych the next round figure.
Support: 0.69163, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69307, 0.69445
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6931 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline chain
Reclaim of the 0.6945 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Acceptance below 0.6900 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain intact.
The AU jobs miss knocked AUDUSD from 0.6980 into a 0.6945–0.6961 Asian range. London broke the Asian low and has printed lower highs along a descending trendline, most recently the 0.6935 lower high, to a fresh 0.6923 session low. RSI(14) is near 21, deep in oversold territory, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.6923, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.6945, 0.6961
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6935 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.6945 Asian low, also the 38.2% of the jobs drop, would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6923 session low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference; the 0.6961 Asian high caps any recovery inside the range
Asian range broken lower in London, grinding at session lows.
AUD/USD extended the slide that followed the AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K f/c) through London. Price broke the Asian low at 0.6944 and pressed to a session low of 0.6926, with each bounce capped by a descending trendline of lower highs. RSI(14) near 27 is soft but not at an extreme, and bars are narrowing at the lows.
Support: 0.69262, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69597
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.6944 asian low turns the break into a false break
A close below the 0.6926 session low opens the 0.6900 round number
Recovery to the 0.6960 range top would negate the lower-high sequence
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 23 · price 0.69287
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken lower, basing just above the session low.
The 00:30 GMT jobs miss knocked AUD off the 0.6980 Asian high. London then broke the 0.6945 Asian low and the 0.6935 prior supp, printing a 0.6926 session low. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold and the last four bars are compressing above the low, with descending highs still capping.
Support: 0.69264, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.69445, 0.69532
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6935 prior supp and the descending highs line would ease the downtrend read
Break of the 0.6926 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 round number
Asian low at 0.6945, near the 38.2% fib, and the 50% fib at 0.6953 are the next ceilings on any rebound
US PPI and Retail Sales bundle at 12:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain from 0.6980.
The AU jobs miss in the Asia session knocked AUDUSD from 0.6980 to the 0.6945 Asian low. London broke that low and the broken supp at 0.6935, printing a lower-highs chain to a 0.6926 session low with RSI(14) near 29. The 38.2% fib of the 0.6980-0.6926 drop sits on the Asian low; a firmer USD after hot CPI has not reversed the move.
Support: 0.69264, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.69445, 0.69605
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6926 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 round number
M15 close back above the 0.6935 broken supp and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.6945 asian low (38.2% fib) would turn the London break into a false break; the swing high at 0.6960 (61.8%) caps above
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range low broken.
London extended the slide that followed the dismal Australian jobs miss. It broke below the Asian low at 0.6944 and the 0.6935 broken supp, and printed a session low at 0.6926 under a London lower-high trendline. RSI(14) near 22 is oversold, and the softer USD has not cushioned AUD so far.
Support: 0.69264, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69358, 0.69445, 0.69597
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the session low at 0.6926 extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6900 psych level
An M15 close back above the 0.6935 broken supp and the 0.6944 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
A move through 0.6947 (38.2% of the post-jobs leg) would also clear the London lower-high trendline
Asian high at 0.6960 caps the intraday range above
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 28 · price 0.69314
Post-jobs Asian range broken lower, lower highs and lower lows intact.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD off 0.6980, and price then held a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range, capped at the asian high. Late Asia and London open broke the range floor along a lower-highs trendline, printing a session low at 0.6926 and losing the 0.6935 support. RSI(14) is near 28, low but not yet extreme.
Support: 0.69264, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69597
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6944 asian low puts price back inside the range and turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6926 session low opens the path to the 0.6900 round number
Close above the lower-highs trendline (~0.6937) breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 14 · price 0.69321
Lower highs since the Asia-session top; post-jobs range broken lower in early London.
The post-jobs-miss Asian range (asian low 0.6944, asia top 0.6960) gave way into the London open. The pair printed a session low at 0.6932, below the 0.6935 area, and the 0.6943 bounce capped as a lower high under the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 14 is deeply oversold, and the slide is AUD-led on the labour data despite a softer USD.
Support: 0.69315, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69597
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6944 asian low would neutralise the range break
Acceptance below the 0.6932 session low exposes the 0.6930 round number
A close above the descending trendline from the 0.6960 asia top breaks the lower-high chain
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 27 · price 0.6940
Post-jobs Asian range broken lower at London open.
After the -39.3K jobs miss, AUD/USD held a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range, then broke below the asian low at the London open. That break printed a session low at 0.6936, near the 0.6935 support. RSI(14) sits near 27, and lower highs have held since the 0.6980 prior high.
Support: 0.69358, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69597, 0.6980
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 0.6945 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6936 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6930 round number
A reclaim of the 0.6960 asian high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.6980–0.6936 leg, breaks the lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 29 · price 0.69394
Lower highs since 0.6980, Asian range broken lower.
The miss in the Australian jobs data knocked AUDUSD off the 0.6980 jobs high into a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range, and London open broke the asian low to print a 0.6936 session low just above 0.6935 support. Lower highs from the asian high still cap rebounds, and RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.69358, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6945 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6936 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6930 round number
A close above the lower highs line near 0.6950 and the 0.6960 asian high breaks the intraday sequence
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read via the USD
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London-open leg lower · RSI 23 · price 0.69373
Lower highs inside Asian range, then range break below the post-jobs low.
The jobs miss knocked AUD/USD from 0.6980 to 0.6945 early in Asia. Lower highs from the 0.6960 Asian high then gave way into the London open, breaking the 0.6945 jobs low and extending to a 0.6936 session low. RSI(14) sits near 23 with price just above the 0.6930 round number.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6960
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6945 jobs low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold 0.6936 session low exposes the 0.6930 round number
Reclaim of 0.6960 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US retail sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into London open · RSI 26 · price 0.69394
Lower highs from 0.6960, Asian range low broken.
The September jobs miss (-39.3K) at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD off 0.6980, and pre-London selling has now cut through the 0.6945 Asian low and the 0.6950 CPI low to a session low at 0.6937. Price is pressing the 0.6935 UOB support with RSI(14) near 26, and the lower highs from the 0.6960 Asian high remain intact.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69503, 0.69597
What it said to watch
A return above the 0.6945 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold 0.6935 UOB support extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 0.6960 Asian high negates the lower-highs read
US retail sales/PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into London open · RSI 30 · price 0.69429
Lower highs since jobs miss; Asian range floor broken.
The AU jobs-miss leg from the 0.6980 pre-jobs high carried into the hour before London open. Price slipped below the 0.6945 Asian low to a session low at 0.6941, with descending highs capping every bounce. RSI(14) sits near 30 with ATR(14) around 44 pips, and the 0.6935 range floor is only a few pips lower.
Support: 0.69413, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6945 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold 0.6935 range floor confirms a lower-low below the 1–3 week range
Recovery through the 0.6960 Asian high breaks the descending highs
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.69467
Lower highs inside a 0.6945–0.6960 Asian range, retesting the range low.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC took AUDUSD from the 0.6980 pre-jobs high to 0.6945, retracing roughly 50% of the jobs drop before Asia settled into a 0.6945–0.6960 range. Lower highs since 03:45 UTC have pushed price back onto the 0.6945 Asian low ahead of London open, with yesterday's 0.6950 post-CPI low now capping.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69503, 0.69597, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.6950 CPI low and the lower highs line, then a close above the 0.6960 Asian high, negates the lower-high sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft USD print would put the 0.6980 pre-jobs high back in focus
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.69477
Lower highs inside 0.6945–0.6960 post-jobs range.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6980 pre-data high to the 0.6945 jobs low, extending the hot-CPI drop through yesterday's 0.6950 prior low. Late in the Asia session, price is printing lower highs below the 0.6960 range top and pressing the jobs low into the London open. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR is about 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69503, 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69445 jobs low breaks the post-jobs range and exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.6950 prior low and a close above the 0.6960 range top negates the lower-highs sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the lower-highs trendline from 0.6960 would signal the compression resolving higher
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.69488
Tight Asia range 0.6945–0.6960 with lower highs after the jobs-driven leg down.
The 00:30 UTC Australian jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 pre-jobs high to a 0.69445 session low. That extended yesterday's slide from 0.7012, which started on the CPI print. Asia has since compressed below the 0.6960 range top in a chain of lower highs, and price is sliding back toward the session low and under yesterday's 0.6950 low into London open.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69445 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes 0.6935 key support
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top, where the 38.2% fib of the jobs leg also sits, invalidates the lower-highs read
Break below 0.6935 key support confirms a fresh lower-low beyond the digest's 0.6935–0.7020 range
London open within the hour may resolve the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print may send price back toward the 0.6980 pre-jobs high
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after jobs-driven leg · RSI 45 · price 0.6954
Lower lows post-jobs; tight 0.6950–0.6960 box under the jobs-drop 38.2%.
Australia's September jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) at 00:30 UTC knocked the pair from the 0.6980 asia high to a 0.6945 jobs low. That break took out yesterday's post-CPI trough and extended the slide. Late Asia has since compressed into a 0.6950 range floor / 0.6960 range top box, with the range top sitting on the 38.2% of the jobs drop and ATR(14) shrinking to under 5 pips.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69723, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top breaks the box and opens the 0.6972 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.6945 jobs low confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.6935 key support
London open in ~75 min is the first test of the Asian box
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after jobs drop · RSI 44 · price 0.6952
Tight post-data range 0.6945–0.6960 below 0.6980 Asia high.
The 00:30 GMT Australian jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) cut short the post-CPI rebound at the 0.6980 Asia high and dropped price to a 0.6945 jobs low. The rest of the Asia session has held a 0.6945–0.6960 range, with the range top sitting at the 38.2% of the jobs-drop fib. Price is now pressing the 0.6950 prior low with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6945
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 jobs low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6935 support flagged in the digest
Close above the 0.6960 range top opens a retrace toward the 0.6980 asia high
London open in ~90 min may set the next leg out of the Asian range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend after jobs miss, now basing · RSI 44 · price 0.69534
Tight post-drop range 0.6945–0.6960 in late Asia.
The Australian jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6980 Asian high to a 0.6945 Asian low. That extended the post-US CPI slide from 0.7010. Since then, late-Asia trade has compressed into a 0.6945–0.6960 range, about the 40% mark of the jobs drop. The range top capped two pushes and micro lows held near 0.6950, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 Asian low breaks the range and exposes 0.6935 support cited in coverage
Close above the 0.6960 range top reopens the 0.6972–0.6980 Asian high zone
Loss of the 0.6950 micro lows would flip the basing read back to a lower-low sequence
US PPI and retail sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after jobs-data drop · RSI 52 · price 0.6954
Post-data range 0.6945–0.6960, mild higher lows.
The September jobs miss knocked AUD/USD 35 pips off the 0.6980 Asia high. Late in the Asia session price is coiling inside a 0.6945–0.6960 range, and the range top lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the jobs drop. Higher lows off the 0.6945 jobs low and RSI(14) near 52 point to compression rather than follow-through ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 jobs low exposes 0.6935 key support
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top reopens the 0.6980 Asia high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight box · RSI 45 · price 0.69528
Post-jobs consolidation 0.6945–0.6960, flat highs and slightly higher lows.
The AU jobs miss (-39.3K) at 00:30 UTC knocked the pair from the 0.6980 Asian high through yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 0.6950 to a 0.69445 jobs low. Since then it has held a 15-pip box late in the Asia session, with the range top at 0.6960 capping five times near the 38.2% fib of the jobs drop. Rising lows are forming underneath, while price sits below both EMAs and RSI(14) is flat near 45.
Support: 0.69503, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69445 jobs low exposes 0.6935 key support
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.6980 Asian high
Loss of the rising lows line near 0.6949 puts the prior low at 0.6950 back in play
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the Asian box
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after jobs drop · RSI 45 · price 0.69504
Lower highs from 0.7013; tight 0.6945–0.6960 range since the jobs low.
Two legs lower in 24h. Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke price from the 0.7000 round number to the 0.6950 NY low, and Australia's -39.3K jobs miss knocked it from the 0.6980 Asian high to a 0.6945 jobs low. Since then the range top at 0.6960 has capped rallies through Asia, near the 38.2–50% of the jobs-drop fib, and price is back retesting the NY low with RSI(14) around 45 and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 jobs low breaks the post-data range and exposes the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6960 range top reopens the 0.6980 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
London open typically tests the Asian range; holding the 0.6950 NY low keeps the range read intact
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 0.69524
Post-jobs drop, 0.6945–0.6960 Asian consolidation.
Australia's September jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) at 00:30 UTC knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 Asia high to a 0.6945 session low, extending the CPI-driven slide off 0.7000. Since then price has held a 0.6945–0.6960 range below both EMAs. The range top sits at the 38.2% retrace of the jobs drop, with price pinned at the 0.6950 cpi-day low.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 session low exposes the 0.6935 uob support flagged in the digest
Break above the 0.6960 range top and 38.2% retrace reopens 0.6980 asia high
Range read likely persists into London open with ATR near 7 pips
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read; the 0.7000 psych cap stays intact unless the USD bid fades
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 47 · price 0.69592
0.6945–0.6960 range after jobs drop, rising lows.
Australia's September jobs miss knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 Asian high to the 0.6945 jobs low, extending the slide that began on the hot US CPI print. Mid-Asia session, price has built a 0.6945–0.6960 range with rising lows and is testing the range top, which is also the 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 range top opens the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.6962–0.6966, with the 0.6980 asian high above
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.6950 cpi-day low puts the 0.6945 jobs low back in play
Loss of the 0.6945 jobs low exposes 0.6935 uob support
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after jobs drop · price 0.69558
Lower high at 0.6980, lower low at 0.6945; tight range with rising lows.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445
Resistance: 0.69588, 0.6980, 0.7000
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the jobs-data leg · RSI 41 · price 0.69553
Lower lows since the CPI drop; tight post-jobs range 0.6945–0.6959.
Australia's September jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) at 00:30 UTC broke the Asian range and took AUD/USD from the 0.6980 Asian high to the 0.6945 jobs low. That undercut yesterday's 0.6950 NY low, which was set after the hot US CPI print. Mid-Asia session, price is consolidating in a 14-pip box with the range top at 0.6959, capped near the 38.2% retracement of the drop. RSI(14) is near 41 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69588, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6959 range top opens a retrace toward the 0.6980 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6945 jobs low exposes 0.6935 uob support flagged in the digest
Repeated closes back below the 0.6950 ny low keep the post-jobs lower-low sequence intact
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after jobs drop · RSI 41 · price 0.6957
Tight range 0.6945–0.6959 below the Asian high, small higher lows.
The Australian September jobs miss at 00:30 UTC knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 Asian high to a 0.6945 session low. That move swept the 0.6950 NY low left after the hot US CPI selloff from 0.7012. Mid-Asia session, price sits in a 0.6945–0.6959 range and is pressing the range top at the 38.2% retrace of the jobs drop, with RSI(14) at 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6959 range top opens the path to the 0.6980 Asian high, with 0.7000 psych beyond
Failure at the 0.6945 session low breaks the higher lows and exposes 0.6935 key support
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower low below prior low, tight base 0.6945–0.6958.
The Australian jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) early in the Asia session broke the 0.6950 prior low from yesterday's post-CPI selloff, and a session low at 0.6945 has held on two tests. The bounce has stalled at the 0.6958 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.6980 pre-data high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6935
Close back above the 0.6958 bounce high opens the 50% fib near 0.6962, with the 0.6980 pre-data high above
Failure to reclaim the 0.6950 prior low keeps it acting as a cap rather than a floor
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after jobs-miss leg · RSI 35 · price 0.69498
Lower highs from Asian high; post-jobs low 0.6945 holding.
The September jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) knocked AUD off the 0.6980 Asian high and below yesterday's post-CPI NY low near 0.6950, printing a post-jobs low at 0.6945. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of that drop (0.6958), and price is compressing just under 0.6950 mid-Asia session with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 post-jobs low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 0.6958 shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 0.6980 Asian high
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
London open in ~4.5h may set a new session range off the 0.6945–0.6958 band
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 41 · price 0.69577
Lower lows after CPI and jobs legs; micro double bottom at 0.6945.
The 00:30 UTC Australian jobs miss (-39.3K) knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 Asian high to a jobs low at 0.6945, undercutting Wednesday's 0.6950 cpi low from the US CPI drop off 0.7012. Two tests of 0.6945 held and the Asia-session bounce is now at the 38.2% retrace near 0.6958, still below EMA20/50 with the 0.6961 breakdown level overhead.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69445
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6961 breakdown and the 61.8% retrace near 0.6966 would reopen the 0.6980 asian high
Failure back below the 0.6950 cpi low and the 0.6945 jobs low confirms a fresh lower-low, with 0.6935 next
Round number 0.7000 caps the broader post-CPI structure
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low after AU jobs miss · RSI 31 · price 0.69484
Early in the Asia session, the AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K f/c) knocked AUD/USD about 35 pips off the 0.6980 session high. The pair broke the 0.6950 prior low from Wednesday's post-CPI selloff and printed a 0.69445 session low, with RSI(14) near 31. The post-data bounce stalled at the 0.6961 bounce high, below the 50% level of the jobs drop fib, and price is now holding just under the broken prior low.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69503, 0.69608, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69445 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6935 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.6950 prior low and the 0.6961 bounce high would mark the break as a false break
Supply capping at the 38.2–50% jobs drop fib (0.6958–0.6962) keeps the downtrend structure intact
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower low after AU jobs miss · RSI 31 · price 0.69523
Asian range broken lower, lower highs under 0.6961.
The soft AU September jobs report knocked the pair out of the Asian range (0.6969–0.6980), printing a lower low at the 0.6945 jobs low beneath the post-CPI ny low at 0.6950. The rebound stalled at the 0.6961 bounce high and price is now pinned around the ny low, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.69503, 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69608, 0.69689, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 jobs low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6935 range floor
Recovery above the 0.6961 bounce high and back above the 0.6969 asian low would neutralise the post-jobs break
Rejection near the 0.6958–0.6962 post-jobs fib zone keeps the lower-high chain intact
Asian high at 0.6980 caps any full retracement of the jobs move
US PPI and Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows after jobs miss · RSI 26 · price 0.69481
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower, CPI low taken out.
The AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC (-39.3K, UR 4.7%) dumped price out of the 0.6969–0.6980 Asian range and through the 0.6950 CPI low, printing a session low at 0.69445. The bounce high at 0.6961 stalled near the 38.2% fib, and the lower-high line from 0.7013 still caps. RSI(14) at 26 is stretched but not extreme. ATR has jumped to ~54 pips on the release.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.69608, 0.6980
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6950 (cpi low) would mark the break below it as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.69445 session low exposes the 0.6935 UOB support
Reclaiming the 0.6961 bounce high and the 50% fib near 0.6962 would break the lower-high sequence toward the 0.6980 Asian high
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, RSI near oversold · RSI 30 · price 0.69526
Lower high at 0.6980, fresh lower low at 0.6945 after jobs miss.
Hot US CPI knocked AUDUSD off 0.7010 at 12:30 UTC. The 00:30 UTC jobs miss then broke the Asian range and swept the NY low at 0.6950, reaching the jobs low at 0.6945. The bounce stalled at the rebound high of 0.6961, and price is now pinned just above the NY low early in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 52 pips.
Support: 0.69503, 0.69448, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69608, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the jobs low at 0.6945 extends the lower-low chain toward UOB support at 0.6935
Recovery through the rebound high at 0.6961 (38.2–50% of the jobs drop fib) opens a retest of the Asian high at 0.6980
Round number 0.7000 is the CPI rejection cap; only a reclaim there would undo the downtrend read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.69524
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI; Asian range broken to the downside.
Early Asia session: the AU jobs miss at 00:30 UTC (-39.3K, UR 4.7%) knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6980 asian high through the asian low and yesterday's 0.6950 NY low to a 0.6945 jobs low. This extends the post-CPI selloff from 0.7012. The jobs bounce stalled at 0.6961, just under the 38.2% retrace, and price is now pinned near the ny low with RSI(14) around 32.
Support: 0.69503, 0.69448
Resistance: 0.69608, 0.69689, 0.6980
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6945 jobs low confirms another lower-low and puts UOB's 0.6935 support in view
M15 close back above the 0.6961 jobs bounce high and the 50% fib near 0.6962 eases the downside read; the asian low at 0.6969 is the next cap
Reclaiming the 0.6980 asian high would negate the range break
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 39 · price 0.69595
Lower high at 0.6980 Asia high, new low on jobs spike, partial retrace.
The Asia session ran to the 0.6980 Asia high before the Australian labour report at 00:30 GMT knocked AUD/USD to 0.6945. That spike swept the 0.6950 NY low left by Wednesday's post-CPI selloff. Price has since recovered about 40% of the jobs drop on the fib to 0.6960 but sits under the 0.6975 pre-data level, with lower highs intact since the 0.7013 London peak.
Support: 0.69503, 0.69448
Resistance: 0.69757, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.6950 NY low reopens the 0.6945 jobs low and the 0.6935 support flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 0.6975 pre-data level and the 0.6980 Asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
The 0.7000 psych level remains the cap after repeated rejections
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend resumed after Asian bounce · RSI 26 · price 0.69474
Post-CPI low broken, new session low.
The 00:30 GMT Australian labour report bar cut about 30 pips from 0.6974 to a jobs low at 0.6945. It took out the post-CPI low (cpi low) at 0.6950 and the recovery line off it, erasing the Asian session grind to the 0.6980 asian high. Price is back under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 26, extending the slide that began when hot US CPI knocked the pair off 0.7010 yesterday.
Support: 0.69448, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.69503, 0.6980
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6950 cpi low would mark the jobs break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6935 uob support extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
A recovery to the 0.6980 asian high would put the pair back inside the overnight range
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low grind off the 0.6950 low, rejected at the Asian high.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUDUSD from the 0.7013 prior high to the 0.6950 post-CPI low during NY hours. The slow higher-low grind since then stalled just shy of the 50% retracement of the CPI drop: the 00:00 GMT bar was rejected at the 0.6980 Asian high and slipped back onto the rising line. Early Asia session; price is pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.6969, 0.6950, 0.6935
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
Australia September labour report at 00:30 GMT (next bar) could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~3 pips going in
M15 close below the 0.6969 Asian low breaks the rising line and flag, exposing the 0.6950 post-CPI low and then the 0.6935 range floor
Close above the 0.6980 Asian high and the 50% retracement opens 0.7000 psych, with the 0.7013 prior high beyond
US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 GMT is the next USD risk after the jobs data
00:02 UTC
Intraday recovery after the CPI selloff · RSI 67 · price 0.69796
Higher-low chain off the NY low, pressing into the 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print knocked AUD 62 pips off the 0.7013 London high to a 0.6950 day low in NY. Since then a higher-lows chain has carried price into the Asia session, now testing the fib 50% at 0.6981 just under the cpi bar high at 0.6984, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6984, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Aussie labour report at 00:30 GMT (~30 min) could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~3 pips into the release
M15 close above the 0.6984 cpi bar high exposes the 0.7000 psych cap
Failure to hold the 0.6971 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.6950 day low
US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC remain the next USD driver