Lower highs from 0.7140; two-week range broken to the downside.
The lower-high sequence runs from 0.7140 to the 0.7013 swing high. Price was rejected at that high after the hot US CPI print, and the AU jobs miss then dropped it through the 0.6932 range floor of the two-week 0.6932–0.6995 range. The fall made a new swing low at 0.6894, just under the late-September 0.6903 low. Price now sits below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips. The range floor overhead lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the drop near 0.6939.
Support: 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6995, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6932 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6894 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 0.6995 range top and the 0.7013 swing high would break the lower-high structure
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
Failed push above 0.7000, range floor broken, new lower low at 0.6894.
The rebound from the 0.6903 prior low built a 0.6930–0.7013 range, but the push above 0.7000 to the 0.7013 swing high failed after the hotter US CPI. The AU jobs miss then broke the higher-low line and the 0.6935 range floor. Price printed a fresh 0.6894 swing low, resuming the slide from the 0.7140 window high. ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips, price sits below the ema20 near 0.6950 and the EMA(50), and RSI near 35 is not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.6950, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6935 range floor (38.2% fib of the 0.7013–0.6894 drop) would reopen the prior range
Rebounds stalling at the ema20 near 0.6950 keep the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.6894 swing low and 0.6903 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, range floor broken · RSI 34 · price 0.6912
Lower highs from 0.7140; 0.6932–0.6995 range broken lower.
Lower highs have held since the 0.7140 window top. Wednesday's push through the 0.6995 range top to the 0.7013 swing high failed after the hot US CPI, and Thursday's AU jobs miss then took price through the 0.6932 range floor to a new window low at 0.6894. ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI near 34, which reads as a leg extending rather than compressing.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6995, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6932 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break and put price back inside the 0.6932–0.6995 range
Close below the 0.6894 window low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path toward 0.6850 psych
Retracement into the 50–61.8% zone of the rejection leg fib (0.6953–0.6967) would test the range interior from below
Recovery above the 0.7013 swing high would break the lower-high line and negate the descending structure
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Range floor broken; lower highs below 0.7140 since early window.
AUDUSD was rejected at the 0.7013 prior high after Wednesday's hot US CPI. Thursday's AU jobs miss (-39.3K) and a hot US PPI then extended the rejection leg through the 0.6945 neckline and the 0.6932 range floor, which had held three times since early month. Price is pressing the 0.6903 swing low below both EMA20 and EMA50, the descending lower-high line from 0.7140 stays intact, and ATR(14) has expanded to ~19 pips from the low-teens during the range.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6945, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6932 range floor would turn the break into a false break and revive the range read
Failure to hold the 0.6903 swing low and 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence to fresh window lows
Recovery through the 0.6945 neckline (near the 38.2% of the rejection leg) would neutralise the head and shoulders read
A move above the lower-high line and the 0.7013 prior high would break the multi-week downtrend structure
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Range within broader decline, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 0.69326
False break above 0.7000, lower highs, rising support broken.
The midweek push through 0.7000 stalled at the 0.7013 swing high and reversed on hot US CPI, a false break of the range top. Today's weak Australian jobs print extended the slide through the rising support from the October low and below the ema20/50 cluster near 0.6965, with a lower high at 0.6980 now capping. Price is testing the 0.6932 swing low beyond the 61.8% retracement of the October upleg, and ATR(14) near 18 pips is expanding off the early-October compression.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6932 swing low confirms a lower low inside the range
Break of the 0.6903 october low would extend the late-September decline
Recovery above the 0.6980 lower high and the ema20/50 cluster would restore the range read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday is the next test for October hike odds
0.6932–0.6990 range after the 0.7140 sell-off; failed break above 0.7000.
After the slide from 0.7140 to the 0.6903 swing low, AUDUSD has spent two weeks in a 0.6932–0.6990 range. The push to 0.7013 stalled under the 38.2% retracement of the decline and reversed on the hot US CPI print, making it a false break. Today's jobs miss has price pressing the recent lows near 0.6945, below a higher-low line from 0.6903 and under flat EMA20/EMA50 near 0.6970, with ATR(14) near 17 pips after the CPI-day expansion.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6990, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6932 range floor would confirm a range break and reopen the 0.6903 swing low
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.6970 and the 0.6990 range top would restore the mid-range read
A return through the 0.7013 false break high would invalidate the rejection
US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri is a second USD risk for the range edges
01:03 UTC
Range after downtrend, higher lows since 0.6903 · RSI 55 · price 0.69775
Higher lows inside a 0.6935–0.7013 range below a 0.7140 lower high.
The recovery from the 0.6903 window low has built higher lows into a 0.6935–0.7013 range. The rally stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 0.7140→0.6903 decline, short of the fib 50% at 0.7022. The push through 0.7000 to the 0.7013 cpi high reversed on the hot US CPI print, and that false break dropped price straight back to the 0.6950 swing low, where demand has held twice this week despite the soft AU jobs data. ATR(14) near 15 pips sits well below the late-September expansion; price is pinned between flat, converging EMA20 and EMA50, consistent with compression inside the range.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6933, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6992, 0.7013, 0.7022
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7013 cpi high negates the false-break read and brings the fib 50% at 0.7022 into view
Repeated caps at the 0.6990 prior highs keep the range read intact
Close below the 0.6950 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.6933 range floor
Sustained loss of the 0.6933 range floor would mark a range breakdown toward the 0.6903 window low
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing