AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, now ranging 0.6900-0.7010 · RSI 43 · price 0.69471
Lower highs from 0.7140; two-week range with a false break below 0.6900.
The three-week descent from 0.7140 has flattened into a 0.6900-0.7010 range. Hot US CPI capped the midweek push at the 0.7013 prior high, and the dismal Australian jobs report then drove a dip to the 0.6894 swing low that was quickly reclaimed as softer US yields weighed on USD. The rebound stalled at 0.6967, the 61.8% fib of the 0.7013-0.6894 leg. Price is slipping back toward EMA20, which sits below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows no compression.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7013, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6894 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and negates the false-break read
Hold of the 0.6930 pivot zone keeps the range intact; loss of it exposes the 0.6894 swing low
Close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 opens a retest of the 0.7013 prior high, with the 0.7045 range top beyond
EMA20 reclaiming EMA50 would mark a shift from the descending structure
AU flash PMIs (Oct 22) and US S&P Global PMIs (Oct 23) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a 0.6900–0.7013 range · RSI 47 · price 0.69588
Lower highs from 0.7140; range floor at 0.6900 held after a false break.
Since the September slide from 0.7140, AUDUSD has carved a 0.6900–0.7013 range. The post-CPI rejection set the cpi high at 0.7013, and the jobs-miss leg briefly pierced the 0.6900 neckline/range low before reclaiming it, leaving a false break and a potential double bottom at 0.6894–0.6903. The rebound, helped by softer US yields and a weaker dollar, has stalled at the 61.8% fib of the 0.7013–0.6894 leg near the ema50. Price sits just above the EMA20, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows no compression.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6990, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close above the ema50 and 61.8% fib near 0.6967 opens the prior highs cluster at 0.6990
Loss of the 0.6945 swing low puts the 0.6900 neckline back in play; an H4 close below it confirms the H&S breakdown
Close above the 0.7013 cpi high breaks the lower-highs sequence and undercuts the H&S read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today, plus Fed speakers, could shift yields and this read
09:04 UTC
Range-bound after September decline, rebounding off lows · RSI 48 · price 0.69604
0.6900–0.7013 range capped by a lower-highs line.
After the late-September slide from 0.7140, AUDUSD has held a 0.6900–0.7013 range under a lower-highs line drawn from the sep highs near 0.7045. The hot US CPI print produced a rejection at the range high, and Thursday's jobs miss drove a sweep to 0.6894, just under the Sep 30 low. Closes held above the 0.6900 range low and price has since recovered through the 50% retracement of that leg as the USD softens. ATR(14) has expanded to about 23 pips. Price is back above the ema20 (0.6950) and testing the EMA50 near 0.6960, while EMA20 remains below EMA50 after this week's cross.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7013, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6900 range low would turn the sweep into a breakdown and resume the September downtrend
Acceptance above the 0.6990 prior highs puts the 0.7013 range high and lower-highs line back in play
Failure at the 61.8% retracement (0.6967) with a slip back below the ema20 at 0.6950 keeps the range-low retest open
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could shift this read via USD and Treasury yields
Lower highs since 0.7140; false break below range floor.
Lower-high structure has held since the 0.7140 peak. This week's 0.7013 swing high capped below the late-September 0.7045 high, and the jobs-miss slide briefly undercut the 0.6903 range floor to a 0.6894 swing low before closing back inside, which leaves a false break on the chart. The softer USD has lifted price to test ema20 near 0.6950, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 0.7013–0.6894 leg. ATR(14) near 22 pips is expanded versus the early-October range.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6995, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 closes back below the 0.6903 range floor and the 0.6894 swing low would confirm a lower-low and end the false-break read
Acceptance above ema20 at 0.6950 and the 50% fib opens the 0.6995 prior high, then the 0.7013 swing high
A break above the lower highs trendline would be the first change to the downtrend structure
US Industrial Production today and Fed hike odds near 42% could shift USD and this read; AU PMIs on Oct 22 are the next domestic risk
01:03 UTC
Downtrend resumed, momentum heavy · RSI 35 · price 0.69182
Head and shoulders neckline broken; lower low at 0.6894 below the prior low at 0.6903.
After the hot US CPI, AUDUSD was capped just above the 0.7000 psych level at 0.7013. The AUD jobs miss (-39.3K) then broke the 0.6945-0.6950 neckline, completing a head and shoulders with the right shoulder near 0.6980. The drop set a fresh swing low at 0.6894, just under the early-month prior low at 0.6903, which nearly fills the ~66-pip measured move. Price sits below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips, a regime of extension rather than compression.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6948 neckline would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6894 swing low and the 0.6903 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Retest of the neckline from below is the area to monitor for rejection or reclaim
Right shoulder at 0.6980 and psych 0.7000 cap the upside unless the neckline is reclaimed
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC (~2.5h) and could materially shift this read via US yields