AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:05 UTC
Corrective bounce within a weekly drop, now stalling · RSI 50 · price 0.69447
Lower high at 0.6967 under the 0.7013 week high; price pinned to flat EMAs.
The push through 0.7000 to a 0.7013 week high on Wednesday failed. The hot US CPI print at the NY open, then Thursday's AU jobs miss in the Asia session, drove a 119-pip slide to the 0.6894 week low. Friday's rebound came off the Asian range near 0.6918 and ran through London to a 0.6967 Friday high, at the 61.8% fib of that drop, where it met rejection; NY hours faded it back to the 0.6936 Friday low as the USD steadied. Price now sits on converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.6945 with RSI(14) at 50, beneath the lower-high trendline from the week high.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6918, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6953, 0.6967, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 0.6953 and the 0.6967 Friday high would break the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6936 Friday low exposes the Asian range at 0.6918 and the 0.6894 week low just under 0.6900
Weekend IMF meetings and Tuesday's US housing data could materially shift this read at the reopen
Lower high at 0.6967 under the 0.7013 week high; price back below EMA cluster.
Rejection at the 0.7013 week high in Wednesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print started a 119-pip slide. Thursday's Asia-session AU jobs miss and hot US PPI during NY hours extended it to a 0.6894 week low. Friday's London rally stalled at the 0.6967 Friday high, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the CPI-jobs leg, and the NY fade has put price back under the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 0.6946 with RSI(14) at 47, sitting on the 38.2% fib at today's 0.6936 NY low.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6916, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6967, 0.7013
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.6936 NY low and the 0.6916 Asian range exposes the 0.6894 week low and the 0.6900 neckline
Reclaiming the 0.6946 EMA cluster and the lower-highs trendline would bring the 0.6967 Friday high back into play
A break through 0.6967 negates the lower-high read, leaving the 0.7013 week high as the next cap
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) and Fed-speak on October hike odds could gap this read at the weekly open
Lower high at 0.6967 under the 0.7013 week high, back below EMA(20).
The week high printed at 0.7013 on Wednesday, then reversed sharply after the hot US CPI print. Thursday's AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) extended the slide through Asia, and US data at the NY open took it to the 0.6894 week low. Friday's USD-led bounce on softer yields after Warsh retraced to the 61.8% of the Wed-Thu fib. A double top at the 0.6967 Friday high (London, then NY) has since broken Friday's trendline, putting price back under the EMA(20) near 0.6945 and sitting on the 38.2% at 0.6939, with RSI(14) slipping to the low 40s.
Support: 0.6916, 0.6900, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6967, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6945 would neutralise the Friday double top read
Close above the 0.6967 friday high (61.8% fib) reopens the 0.7000 psych and 0.7013 week high
Failure to hold the 0.6916 asian range low exposes the 0.6900 psych and 0.6894 week low
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak raise Monday-open gap risk for this read
Lower high at 0.6967 after 0.7013→0.6894 drop; rising support broken.
The week high at 0.7013 was rejected at Wednesday's NY open on the hot US CPI print, and Thursday's AU jobs miss in the Asia session extended the Wednesday–Thursday drop to a 0.6894 week low. Friday's USD-led bounce on softer yields after Warsh ran through the Asia session and London open but stalled at the 0.6967 Friday high, a near-exact tag of the 61.8% fib, leaving a lower high. NY session selling then broke the rising support from Thursday's low, and price now sits just under the ema20 near 0.6946, testing the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) back below 50.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6939 (38.2% fib) exposes the 0.6907 swing low and the 0.6894 week low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6946 and a break of the 0.6967 Friday high (61.8% fib) would reopen the 0.7000 psych level
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and IMF weekend headlines; US yields remain the main driver of this bounce
Lower high at 61.8% retrace of Wed–Thu drop, price back on EMAs.
The week high at 0.7013 gave way in Wednesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print. Thursday's AU jobs miss (-39.3K vs +20K) extended the slide to a 0.6894 week low by Thursday NY. Friday's rebound off the 0.6920 Asian base, driven by softer USD and lower yields after Warsh, stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.6967 in both London and the first hour of NY. The NY reversal has since broken Friday's rising line and pulled price back onto EMA(20) at 0.6946, with EMA(50) just below and RSI(14) easing toward 55.
Support: 0.6946, 0.6920, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 38.2% fib near 0.6939, under EMA20, exposes the 0.6920 Asian base
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 invalidates the lower-high read and opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7013 week high
Loss of the 0.6894 week low would mark a fresh lower-low under the 0.6900 neckline
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF Fed commentary could shift USD into the next open
Week high 0.7013, low 0.6894; Friday higher lows into 61.8% retrace.
The pair was rejected from the 0.7013 week high after Wednesday's hot US CPI. Thursday's jobs miss extended the slide to a 0.6894 week low during NY hours. Friday's recovery began in the Asia session as USD softened on lower yields after Warsh, lifting price back to the 61.8% retrace of the drop at the 0.6967 friday high. The NY dip to 0.6951 held at ema20, keeping the rising support from Thursday's low intact with RSI(14) holding in the high 60s.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6939, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6967 friday high (61.8% retrace) opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7013 week high
Loss of ema20 near 0.6950 and the rising support line exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6939
A break back toward the 0.6894 week low would resume the CPI-jobs selloff structure
Weekly close plus weekend IMF/Fed remarks could gap price at the open; US yields remain the main driver
Lower highs from 0.7013; Friday bounce stalled at 61.8% retrace.
Wednesday's rejection at the 0.7013 week high on hot US CPI, then Thursday's jobs miss, produced a 119-pip slide to the 0.6894 week low by the NY session, with Thursday's jobs top at 0.6980 marking a lower high. Friday's USD softness after Warsh lifted the pair through Asia and London back above EMA(20) near 0.6946. The rebound stalled at the 0.6967 Friday high, the 61.8% fib of the week's drop, and faded into the NY open with RSI(14) easing to about 63.
Support: 0.6946, 0.6939, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6967 Friday high and lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.6980 jobs top and 0.7013 week high
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.6946 and the 38.2% fib at 0.6939 returns focus to the 0.6894 week low
Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) could shift this read into Monday's open
13:04 UTC
Corrective bounce within this week's decline · RSI 56 · price 0.69527
Lower high at 0.7013, rebound capped at 61.8% fib.
AUDUSD set its week high at 0.7013 in Wednesday's London session. Hot US CPI then drove a rejection back through 0.7000, and Thursday's AU jobs miss extended the slide to a 0.6894 week low during NY hours. Friday's softer-USD bounce ran from the Asia session into London open and stalled almost exactly at the 61.8% fib of the week high-low leg at 0.6967; price is now back at the 50% fib near 0.6953, with RSI(14) easing to ~56 from 63, and the converging EMA20/EMA50 cluster at 0.6945 sits just below alongside the rebound trendline from Thursday's low.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6945, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the ema cluster near 0.6945 breaks the rebound trendline and reopens the week low at 0.6894
Close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 exposes the thu high at 0.6980 and the week high at 0.7013
Lower high 0.7013→0.6980, week low 0.6894, Friday higher lows back above both EMAs.
The pair was rejected below the 0.7000 psych level on Wednesday's hot US CPI print. After a lower high at the 0.6980 thu high, it slid through Thursday's London and NY sessions to a week low at 0.6894, as the -39.3K AU jobs miss and strong US PPI and retail data stacked up. Friday's Asia and London sessions broke above Thursday's 0.6907–0.6924 range and reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50) on a softer USD and lower yields, but the rebound has stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.6967. RSI(14) near 68 is the firmest reading since Wednesday's peak, while price holds above the 50% fib and the fri low.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6938, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 opens the path to the thu high at 0.6980 and the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.6953 and the fri low at 0.6938 would break the rebound line
A return below 0.6900 toward the week low reinstates the downtrend leg
Lower high at 0.7013 and lower low at 0.6894; Friday retrace stalling at 61.8%.
The week's dominant move was the Wed-Thu drop from 0.7013. The hot US CPI print knocked the pair off the 0.7000 psych area in the NY session. Thursday's AU jobs miss broke it through 0.6945 in the Asia session, and US data hours carried it to the 0.6894 week low. Friday's rebound started in Asia as USD softened on lower yields and Warsh's no-guidance remarks, then extended at London open along a steep rebound line, lifting price back above the flattened EMA(20) and EMA(50) at the 0.6944 ema zone. Price is now capped at the 61.8% fib of that drop at 0.6967, with RSI(14) at 66 and the 50% fib at 0.6953 holding underneath.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6944, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6967 (61.8% fib) opens the path to the 0.6980 thu high and the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.6953 and the 0.6944 ema zone would leave Friday's high as a lower high
Break of the rebound line puts the 0.6894 week low and the 0.6900 neckline back in focus
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD/yields leg
10:03 UTC
Corrective rebound within a weekly downtrend · RSI 65 · price 0.69602
Lower high at 0.6980 after the 0.7013 week high; Friday higher lows off the 0.6894 week low.
The week's dominant move started with a rejection from the 0.7013 week high during Wednesday's NY session on the hot US CPI. Thursday's jobs miss capped a rebound at the 0.6980 jobs high, and the US PPI then drove the slide to the 0.6894 week low. Friday's range break began in Asia after Warsh's non-committal speech weighed on the USD and extended at London open, lifting price back above EMA(20), along Friday's higher lows and into the 50–61.8% fib band at 0.6953–0.6967, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6938, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 and the 0.6980 jobs high would erase the lower-high sequence and bring the 0.7013 week high back into view
Break of Friday's higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 0.6938 would return focus to the 0.6894 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from 0.6894; 0.6980 lower high intact.
The week high at 0.7013 rejected on Wednesday after the hot US CPI print. Thursday's -39.3K jobs miss capped price at the 0.6980 jobs spike high, and the PPI beat extended the slide to the 0.6894 week low during NY hours. Since Friday's Asia session, a softer USD after Warsh has lifted price out of Thursday's range and back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) (~0.6944). Friday's high at 0.6961 sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6920, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above Friday's high at 0.6961 and the 61.8% fib (0.6967) exposes the 0.6980 jobs spike high
A break of the recovery line and EMA(20) near 0.6939 puts the Thursday range top at 0.6920 back in focus
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.6894 week low resumes the lower-low sequence from the 0.7013 week high
Week high 0.7013 to low 0.6894; Asia-session rebound reclaimed the 0.6950 pivot and is testing the 61.8% fib.
Wednesday's London push to the 0.7013 week high reversed on the hotter US CPI in NY, and Thursday's AU jobs miss in Asia plus the US data run in NY extended the drop to a 0.6894 week low, a brief false break of 0.6900. A softer USD after Warsh's non-committal remarks fuelled a Friday Asia-session rebound back above the 0.6950 pivot and ema20 (~0.6938), with price now pressing the 61.8% fib of the week's decline near 0.6967. RSI(14) has recovered to ~63 from the Thursday lows, and the rebound line from that low has held each dip.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6938, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6950 pivot would put the rebound at risk of failing beneath the 61.8% fib
A close above the 0.6980 pre-jobs high opens the path to 0.7000 and the 0.7013 week high
Break of the rebound line and ema20 near 0.6938 exposes the 0.6894 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read during NY hours
07:03 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday high, relief bounce under way · RSI 62 · price 0.69513
Lower high at 0.6980, week low 0.6894; higher lows since Thursday NY.
Wednesday's rejection near 0.7013 on the hot US CPI print, followed by Thursday's -39.3K AU jobs miss, drove a 119-pip slide to the 0.6894 week low during NY hours. Since then a higher-low sequence and a softer USD after Warsh's non-committal remarks have lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.6934 and EMA(50). The London open extended the bounce out of the asian range into the 50% fib of the slide at 0.6953, with RSI(14) recovered to the low 60s from oversold Thursday and the 0.6980 pre-jobs high and 0.7000 psych level overhead.
Support: 0.6938, 0.6915, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 0.6953 opens the 0.6980 pre-jobs high, then 0.7000 psych
Loss of the 0.6938 pullback low and EMA(20) near 0.6934 breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 0.6915 asian range back in play
A break of the 0.6894 week low resumes the downtrend leg
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
0.7013 week high to 0.6894 week low; bounce capped near 38.2% retracement.
Wednesday's 0.7013 week high met rejection at the NY open on the hot US CPI print. Thursday's -39.3K AU jobs miss then drove the slide through the Asia and London sessions to a 0.6894 week low, though no hourly bar closed below 0.6900. Friday's Asia session bounce after Warsh's non-committal speech stalled at the 0.6948 bounce high, right at the 38.2% retracement and EMA(50). Price holds above EMA(20) at 0.6932 and the higher-lows line, and RSI(14) has recovered to 54.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6920, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.6948 bounce high clears the lower-highs line and opens the Thursday high at 0.6980, with the 0.7013 week high above
Loss of EMA(20) and the higher-lows line near 0.6932 returns price to the 0.6920 Asian range
A break of the 0.6894 week low confirms a lower-low below 0.6900
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7013; bounce into 38.2–50% of week drop.
Wednesday's push through 0.7000 to the 0.7013 week high was rejected on the hot US CPI print. The AU jobs miss then drove a London-session leg to a 0.6894 week low on Thursday, though no H1 bar closed below 0.6900. The Asia-session bounce on Warsh's non-committal speech has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.6931 and into EMA(50) near 0.6942, with RSI(14) back near 60. Price is capped so far just under the 50% fib of the week's drop at 0.6953, with the week open at 0.6976 above.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6931, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6953, 0.6976, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 0.6953 opens the 0.6976 week open; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence from the week high intact
A break of EMA(20) near 0.6931 and the recovery higher lows trendline puts the 0.6894 week low back in focus
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and the direction of Treasury yields could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7013; completed head and shoulders, price retesting 0.6950 neckline from below.
Wednesday's rejection at the 0.7013 week high on the hot US CPI print, followed by Thursday's -39.3K AU jobs miss, completed a head and shoulders with a 0.6950 neckline. The measured move was nearly filled at the 0.6894 week low on the US data during NY hours. In Asia, price broke above the 0.6907–0.6926 range top in the hour covering Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks, reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.6929 and the ema50 near 0.6942, with RSI(14) lifting to 58. It now sits just under the neckline, between the 38.2% (0.6939) and 50% (0.6953) fib of the week's drop.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6924, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6950 neckline and the 50% fib exposes 0.6980, Thursday's thu high and the right-shoulder peak
Rejection at the neckline and a close back below the 0.6924 range top restores the downtrend read toward the 0.6894 week low
Follow-through from Warsh's speech, and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Only a break of the 0.7013 week high negates the lower-highs sequence and the head and shoulders
Lower highs from 0.7013; tight base 0.6907–0.6931 after Thursday's flush.
AUD/USD climbed from Monday's 0.6980 area to 0.7013 by Wednesday London on the RBA minutes and China data, then saw a rejection at the 0.7000 psych level as hot US CPI hit in the first hour of NY. Thursday's Asia-session jobs miss (-39.3K) knocked price through 0.6945, the post-jobs low that now acts as resistance alongside EMA(50) near 0.6942 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.6939, and hot PPI extended the slide to a 0.6894 week low in NY. Since then price has built a narrow base of higher lows from 0.6907. It is just reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.6926 and testing the Asian session high at 0.6931, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 0.6926, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6945, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, within the hour, and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.6907 higher low breaks the base and puts the 0.6894 week low back in play
Acceptance above 0.6945, the jobs low and EMA(50) confluence, would interrupt the lower-high sequence and open 0.6970
Failure at the 0.6931 session high keeps price pinned inside the 0.6907–0.6931 consolidation
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next marginal USD driver in the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7013 week high; tight range above the 0.6894 week low.
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.6980 and peaked at 0.7013 in Wednesday's London session, then hot US CPI (3.7%) drove a rejection below 0.7000 that formed the head of a head-and-shoulders. Thursday's AU jobs miss (-39.3K) broke the 0.6950 neckline during the Asia session, and the slide extended to a week low of 0.6894 around the US PPI release, with RSI(14) near 21. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6907–0.6926 range, with the range low holding and a line of higher lows underneath. The ema20 near 0.6925 is capping the range top, the fib 38.2 at 0.6939 sits above it, and RSI has recovered to 43.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6900, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.6939, 0.6950
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker), about 1.5h out, and could materially shift this read
H1 closes above the ema20 near 0.6925 and the fib 38.2 at 0.6939 would extend the recovery toward the 0.6950 neckline
A retest of the 0.6950 neckline from below that fails keeps the head-and-shoulders breakdown intact
A break of the higher-lows line and the 0.6907 range low reopens 0.6900 psych and the 0.6894 week low
Head and shoulders completed; lower highs from 0.7013, tight base above 0.6907.
The week opened near 0.6990 and Wednesday's London push to the 0.7013 week high reversed during NY hours on the hot US CPI print. The AU jobs miss in Thursday's Asia session then broke the 0.6950 neckline of a head and shoulders, and the Wednesday–Thursday drop extended into NY to the 0.6894 week low. Since then price has held a narrow 0.6907–0.6924 band just under EMA(20) near 0.6925, with RSI(14) recovering only to about 40, keeping the pullback low as the floor of the pause.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.6950, 0.7013
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Sustained H1 closes above EMA(20) near 0.6925 would mark the first break of the lower-high sequence since Thursday
An H1 close back above the 0.6950 neckline (also the 50% retrace of the Wednesday–Thursday drop) undermines the head and shoulders read
A break of the 0.6907 pullback low reopens the 0.6894 week low and the 0.6900 round number
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.7013 top; tight consolidation above the week low.
AUDUSD briefly cleared the 0.7000 psych level into Wednesday's London session, then reversed on the hot US CPI print. Thursday's Asia-session jobs miss (-39.3K) sent it through the 0.6950 neckline of a head and shoulders formed since Monday, and selling ran into early NY hours to a 0.6894 week low. The rebound after the US PPI and retail data stalled near 0.6925, where EMA(20) now caps price. Price is holding in a 15-20 pip Asian range just above the thu ny low at 0.6907, near the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.6950, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.6925 ema20 opens a retest of the 0.6950 neckline
Failure to hold the 0.6907 thu ny low exposes the 0.6894 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.6950 neckline would undermine the head and shoulders read