19:06 UTC
Range after Q1 breakout, rolling over from lower high · RSI 43 · price 0.69184
0.6833–0.7277 range since Feb; lower high in Sept, price in lower third.
AUDUSD has been range-bound between the 0.6833 range low and the 0.7277 range high since the January breakout from the 2025 base. September's lower high at 0.7237 against the May peak forms a potential double top, and price is back in the lower third. This week's rejection at the 0.7000 psych level leaves price fractionally below the W1 EMA(50) near 0.6930, as the Australian jobs miss cut RBA hike pricing against hot US CPI and PPI. RSI(14) near 43 is mid-range, so structure carries the read: the June low at 0.6865 and the range low form the neckline zone, near the 50% retracement of the Nov–May advance.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6833, 0.6727
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.7000, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.6833 range low completes the double top and exposes the 2025 high near 0.6727, close to the 61.8% Nov–May fib
- Failure to hold the june low at 0.6865 would mark a third test of the range floor this year
- Recovery back above the W1 EMA(50) and the 0.7000 psych level restores the mid-range read
- A close above the 0.7237 Sept high and the 0.7277 range high would break the multi-quarter range to the upside
- Late-October FOMC (~42% hike odds) and AU flash PMIs on Oct 22 could materially shift the Fed-RBA divergence behind this leg