AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 9 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:06 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 55 · price 0.69781
0.6932–0.6990 range above 0.6903 low, higher lows.
The late-September downtrend from 0.7140 has stalled into a range above the 0.6903 three-month low. Swing lows at 0.6932 held twice, the 0.6942 range low band has been defended, and the range top near 0.6990 has capped three rallies just under the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7140–0.6903 leg. Price sits above flat EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) compressed to about 17 pips from roughly 30 during the selloff. The late-week bounce tracks the US-yield pullback after the midweek FOMC Minutes reversal, and a breakout looks pending.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7022
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 range top and 0.7000 psych level breaks the range and opens the 0.7022 fib 50%
Failure below the 0.6932 swing low exposes the 0.6903 3m low and resumes the lower-low sequence
A break of the higher lows trendline from 0.6903 would undercut the basing read
RBA Minutes Tue 13 Oct 00:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 15 Oct 00:30 UTC could reprice AUD
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a move out of the range
13:06 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 58 · price 0.69843
Lower highs from 0.7140 broken; 0.6932-0.6990 range above 0.6903 low.
The three-week slide from 0.7140 bottomed at the 0.6903 swing low. Price has since built a 0.6932-0.6990 range, with the range floor holding twice and the range top capping twice; the top also sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7045-0.6903 leg. AUD is pressing the upper edge again as US yields pull back, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips from 25-40 pips during the decline, a coiled regime.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 range top opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7042 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6932 range floor puts the 0.6903 swing low back in play
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could shift this read
US CPI next week is a key catalyst if yields resume their climb
0.6932-0.6990 range with higher lows; range top under retest.
The slide from 0.7185 stalled at the 0.6903 3m low on Oct 1. Since then price has built a 0.6932-0.6990 range, printing a higher low at 0.6932 after the FOMC-minutes dip. It is now pressing the range top at 0.6990 for a second time as the USD corrects and yields ease, a level that lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039-0.6903 leg. ATR(14) near 16 pips has compressed from the late-September expansion, and price sits above the EMA20 and marginally above the EMA50 with no H4 EMA cross confirmed yet.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7005, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 range top and 61.8% fib opens the 0.7005 prior floor, then the 0.7021 lower high
A break of the 0.6942 swing low, then the 0.6932 higher low, would breach the rising support and re-expose the 0.6903 3m low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations today at 14:00 UTC could shift the yield-driven read
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) and US CPI next week are the main range-break risks
Higher lows off 0.6903, boxed in a 0.6932–0.6990 range.
The slide from 0.7140 ended at the 0.6903 swing low, and price has since printed higher lows at the 0.6932 range floor, twice, while the range high at 0.6990 has capped it near the 38.2% retracement. Wednesday's reversal from that cap followed firm US yields and the Fed Minutes. Price is now recovering as the USD softens and holds above a flattening ema cluster near 0.6963, with ATR(14) compressed to about 16 pips against 25+ during the decline.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7005
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 range high and 38.2% fib breaks the range and opens the 0.7005 broken floor
Failure to hold the 0.6932 range floor breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.6903 swing low
Sustained trade back below the ema cluster at 0.6963 shifts the range back toward its floor
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations today 14:00 UTC could shift US yields and this read
RBA Minutes Tue Oct 13 00:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific catalyst for a range break
Lower highs from 0.7187 into 0.6903 low; since then a contracting range 0.6932-0.6990.
The three-week slide from 0.7187 bottomed at the 0.6903 three-month low. The rebound stalled at the 0.6990 swing high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the last leg, and price has since compressed between the 0.6932 twin lows and a 0.6974 lower high. EMA20 has flattened near 0.6959, still under EMA50 around 0.6968, and ATR(14) near 15 pips is well below the slide's expansion phase, with AUD lagging as 2002-high US yields and a hawkish Fed offset the fading RBA hike story.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6990
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 swing high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 0.7020 in view
Failure to hold the 0.6932 twin lows exposes the 0.6903 3-month low, the floor of the higher-low trendline
Lower high at 0.6974 alongside EMA50 is the near-term cap inside the compression
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, Fri 14:00 UTC, could break the range
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC and Australian jobs Thu 00:30 UTC are the next AUD-side catalysts