19:07 UTC
Range since Feb 2026 after Q1 breakout, compressing · RSI 46 · price 0.69507
0.6833–0.7277 range with rising lows and a lower high.
AUDUSD broke out of the 2025 0.6420–0.6710 base in January 2026 and has been range-bound between the 0.6833 range low and the 0.7277 range high since February. The September lower high at 0.7237 and rising lows at 0.6833 and the 0.6865 June low have compressed the structure. A three-week pullback from the sep high has brought price onto the rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.6923 and the 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2025–May 2026 advance at 0.6950, with RSI(14) a neutral 46. Fed–RBA policy divergence, with US yields at multi-decade highs, is the macro pressure behind the slide, while the 0.7000 round number caps the bounce.
Support: 0.6923, 0.6865, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the ema50 and the 0.6865 june low breaks the rising-lows structure and exposes the 0.6833 range low
- Weekly close below the 0.6833 range low ends the 2026 range and shifts the regime toward reversion into the 50% retracement near 0.6849 and below
- Recovery through the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7237 sep high reopens the upper half; a close above the 0.7277 range high resumes the 2026 uptrend
- US CPI (Wed 14 Oct) plus RBA Minutes and September jobs this week could shift the yield-differential driver behind the range