19:05 UTC
Uptrend, ranging since February · RSI 46 · price 0.69702
0.6833-0.7277 range, September lower high.
Range-bound between the 0.6833 range low and the 0.7277 cycle high since price broke out of the 2025 0.64-0.67 base in January. September's 0.7237 high stalled below May's peak, and three weekly declines have since pulled price back to the 23.6% level of the 2025-26 fib near 0.6955, just under the 0.7000 round number. Price holds above a rising W1 EMA(50) at 0.6922 but has slipped below the rising trendline from the April 2025 low; a dovish-leaning RBA hold has eroded AUD's rate support, while this week's US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) trimmed Fed October hike odds.
Support: 0.6922, 0.6865, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.6922 ema50 would shift the regime from range-in-uptrend toward reversion
- A break of the 0.6865 june low and the 0.6833 range low would complete a double-top shape from the cycle high and sep high
- A weekly close back above the 0.7000 round number would restore price to the rising trendline and the upper half of the range
- A weekly close above the 0.7237 sep high and 0.7277 cycle high would end the range read
- US ISM Services (Oct 5) and the Oct 28 FOMC could reprice the Fed-RBA policy gap behind this range