Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; ranges resolving lower.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. The 0.7100-0.7140 and 0.7005-0.7040 ranges each broke lower, and price sits under the lower-highs trendline with EMA20 below EMA50. The soft US NFP (29K vs 90K) lifted the pair off the 0.6903 swing low to tag the 78.6% fib of the 0.6994-0.6903 leg at 0.6975. Rejection there returned price to the 50% fib near 0.6949. ATR(14) is about 23 pips and expanding from mid-window compression.
Support: 0.69489, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.69943, 0.70036
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6994 wed high, and through the lower-highs trendline, would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming 0.7004, the broken floor of the prior range, would put the late-September range back in play
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.6949 exposes the 0.6913 higher low and the 0.6903 swing low
US ISM Services (Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. It stepped down through the 0.7074 and 0.7004 pivots and lost the 0.7004 range floor, a slide driven by firm US yields and a dovish-read RBA hold. Price is recovering from the 0.6903 swing low after the 29K NFP miss and sits just under the 0.6956 lower high, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement. The 61.8% fib near 0.6987 lines up with the lower-highs trendline. EMA20 is below EMA50 with price under both, and ATR around 20 pips shows no compression.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6987, 0.7004
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.6956 lower high would be the first break in the lower-high sequence, bringing the 61.8% fib and lower-highs trendline near 0.6987 into play
A rejection below 0.6956 followed by a break of the 0.6903 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the channel base near 0.6890
A recovery back above the 0.7004 range floor would invalidate the descending channel read
Post-NFP USD repricing and US ISM Services on Oct 5 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows inside a falling channel.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 top, with price contained in a falling channel. The soft US PCE pop stalled at 0.6994, the 38.2% fib and channel top, before firm US data, higher yields and a dovish RBA hike extended the slide to the 0.6903 swing low. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50 and ATR(14) expanding to about 22 pips; the latest bars carve a higher low at 0.6913 and lift back toward the ema20 at 0.6956.
Support: 0.6913, 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6994, 0.7004
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6956 (ema20 and prior high) would print the first higher high since the 0.6994 swing
Break of the 0.6903 swing low and 0.6900 psych resumes the lower-low sequence toward the channel base near 0.6895
Sustained trade back above the channel top and the 0.7004 broken low would invalidate the downtrend read
US NFP today (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the miss and beat scenarios sit on opposite sides of 0.6956 and 0.6900
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; price testing descending trendline after a bounce from the 0.6903 swing low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window. It slipped back below 0.70 after failing at the 0.6994 prior high, as the RBA's dovish tilt and firm US data weighed. The latest bounce from the 0.6903 swing low has carried price straight into the descending trendline off the 0.7039 swing high, near 0.6937. EMA20 sits below EMA50, both above price, and ATR(14) around 22 pips shows a steady rather than compressed regime.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69559, 0.69943, 0.70387
What it said to watch
H4 close above the descending trendline and the 0.6956 lower high (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the trendline keeps the lower-high structure intact
Break below the 0.6903 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.6900 psych level in play
Recovery through the 0.6994 prior high and the 0.7039 swing high would neutralise the downtrend read
US NFP in ~7.5h (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows since 0.7237; fresh low at 0.6903.
AUD/USD has printed a clean lower-high / lower-low sequence for three weeks, from 0.7237 down to a fresh swing low at 0.6903. A descending trendline off 0.7140 and 0.7039 has capped every bounce. The range break below 0.70 came after the RBA hike was faded on Bullock's dovish signal and soft trimmed-mean CPI, and price has since rejected the 0.6994 prior high and the 0.6955 lower high. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 21 pips is modestly expanding rather than compressing; the bounce off 0.6903 has yet to reach the 38.2% fib of the 0.7039 to 0.6903 leg (~0.6955).
Support: 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6994, 0.7039
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 0.6903 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6900 round number
H4 close above the 0.6955 lower high would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Break of the descending trendline (~0.6990) and the 0.6994 prior high would challenge the downtrend read; the 0.7039 swing high is the next structural cap