Lower high at 0.69595 vs 0.69752 NFP high; higher low at 0.69446 above London high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K f/c) drove AUD from 0.6938 to a 0.69752 session high (nfp high). Sellers then faded the spike through NY hours to a 0.69446 swing low, a near 78.6% retracement that held just above the London high. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 0.69595 lower high, and price is pinned around a flat EMA20 near 0.6955 into the Friday close, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.6949, 0.69446
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69595 lower high breaks the post-NFP lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.69752 nfp high
Loss of the 0.6949 range floor exposes the 0.69446 swing low and the 78.6% fib
A break under the 0.69446 swing low erases most of the NFP leg
Weekend gap risk: AU Services PMI Sun 23:00 UTC and Monday ISM Services (14:00 UTC) can reset this read at the open
20:32 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pausing into the weekly close · RSI 62 · price 0.69575
Higher low at 0.6945 after the NFP spike, compressing below the 0.6960 late high.
The 29K NFP miss lifted AUDUSD through the 0.6950 area to a 0.6975 NFP high. The NY pullback held the 0.6945 swing low near the 50% retracement of the Asia-to-NFP leg, and price has since rebuilt toward the 0.6960 late high. Ranges are shrinking late in the NY session ahead of the weekly close.
Support: 0.69446, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 late high opens a retest of the 0.6975 NFP high, with 0.7000 round number beyond
Failure to hold the 0.6945 swing low and the rebound line breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6938 pre-NFP base
Weekend gap risk: AU Services PMI (f/c 51.4) Sun 23:00 UTC, then US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Post-NFP spike faded, late NY recovery stalling · RSI 48 · price 0.69567
Higher low at 0.6949 after London-high retest, capped at 50% fib.
The 29K NFP miss pushed AUDUSD through the 0.6946 London-session high to a 0.6975 nfp high. NY then gave most of it back to a 0.6945 swing low, a retest of that London high. A late-NY higher low at 0.6949 has bounced into the 50% fib of the post-NFP drop near 0.6960, where the bounce is stalling into the Friday close with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.6949, 0.69446, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69599, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6960 (50% fib) reopens the 0.6975 nfp high
Break of the 0.6949 higher low and 0.6945 swing low fails the London-high retest, exposing the 0.6931 london low
Weekend close: AU Services PMI (Sun 23:00 UTC) and US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) could gap or reset this read
20:03 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 57 · price 0.69587
NFP breakout, retest of pre-NFP high held, late-NY recovery.
The soft NFP print (29K vs 90K) broke AUDUSD out of the 0.6935–0.6946 London range to a 0.6975 nfp high. The NY pullback held 0.6945, the swing low at the pre-NFP high, near the 50% fib of the Asia-to-NFP leg and on rising support. Late NY has reclaimed the 0.6951 range top and is pressing the 0.6960 late high.
Support: 0.6951, 0.69446
Resistance: 0.69595, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6960 late high exposes the 0.6975 nfp high
Close back below the 0.6951 range top reopens the 0.6945 swing low
Break of the 0.6945 swing low and rising support undercuts the NFP breakout-retest read
Friday close into weekend: AU Services PMI Sun 23:00 UTC and US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC can gap the Monday open
19:32 UTC
Post-NFP spike faded, late NY rebound · RSI 59 · price 0.69579
Double top at 0.6975, higher low at 0.6949 above the NY low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) broke AUDUSD out of the 0.6931–0.6946 London range to a 0.6975 NFP high. A double top there saw NY retrace about 70% of the leg on the NFP leg fib, down to a 0.6945 NY low that retested the old range top. Late NY demand has since lifted price back into the 0.6959 breakdown level, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6945
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6959 breakdown level puts the 0.6975 NFP high and double top back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6949 swing low exposes the 0.6945 NY low; a break below would undercut the NFP leg fib 61.8%
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the weekend; AU services PMI (Oct 4, 23:00 GMT) and US ISM Services on Monday could shift this read
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) broke AUD out of the 0.6931-0.6946 pre-NFP range to a 0.6975 NFP high. Twin tops at 0.6975/0.6974 gave way to a slide to the 0.6945 swing low, the 50% fib of the day's 0.6913-0.6975 move. Late NY is printing rising lows and pressing the 0.6958 breakdown area, where the 15:00 GMT drop accelerated.
Support: 0.69446, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69577, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6958 breakdown level reopens the 0.6975 NFP high
Loss of the 0.6945 swing low breaks the rising lows and the 50% fib, exposing the 0.6931 pre-nfp low
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thinning; next scheduled USD risk is Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7)
Lower highs from 0.6975 NFP high, tight range 0.6945–0.6952 late NY.
The US NFP miss (29K vs 90K) lifted AUDUSD from 0.6948 to a 0.6975 NFP high. The spike faded through NY along a falling fade line back to the 0.6945 swing low, which sits at the pre-NFP high and the 50% fib of the Asia-low-to-NFP-high move. Late NY is now compressing between 0.6945 and the 0.6952 range top, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.69446, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69516, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.6937 and the 0.6931 london low
M15 close above the 0.6952 range top and the nfp fade line reopens the 0.6975 nfp high
Liquidity thins after NY close into the weekend; ISM Services Monday 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
18:32 UTC
Post-NFP spike fading, flat into late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.69507
Lower highs from 0.6975, holding the 61.8% fib.
The US NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a 44-pip spike from the 0.6931 pre-nfp low to the 0.6975 nfp high in the first hour of NY, clearing the Asian range and London high. The move has since retraced to the 61.8% fib near 0.6948. Late NY is compressing in a 0.6945–0.6954 band, between the swing low and a lower high.
Support: 0.6948, 0.69446, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69542, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 swing low exposes the 78.6% retracement at 0.6941 and the 0.6931 pre-nfp low
M15 close above the 0.6954 lower high reopens the path to the 0.6975 nfp high
Holding the 61.8% fib keeps the breakout-retest read intact into the Friday close
18:17 UTC
Post-NFP spike fully faded, flattening late NY · RSI 48 · price 0.69502
Lower highs from 0.6975 into a tight base above the 0.6945 london high.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K f/c) lifted AUDUSD to the 0.6975 nfp high in the first hour of NY, but the move was rejected and fully faded. Price is now retesting the 0.6945 london high near the 61.8% of the nfp leg fib, in a 0.6945–0.6952 band capped by the ema20 late in the NY session.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6952, 0.6959, 0.6975
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 london high erases the release move and exposes the 0.6931 pre-nfp low
Recovery above the 0.6959 breakdown level reopens the 0.6975 nfp high
Friday-close liquidity is thin; the AU Services PMI on Oct 4 at 23:00 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs from 0.6975, tight base 0.6945-0.6952.
The US NFP miss (29K vs 90K) lifted AUD/USD from the 0.6931 London low to a 0.6975 NFP high during NY hours. The spike was rejected and has faded on a lower-high sequence back to the 61.8% fib of the move near 0.6948. Late NY session price is compressing between the 0.6945 post-NFP low and a 0.6952 range top, with RSI(14) neutral and price below EMA20.
Support: 0.6948, 0.69446, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69516, 0.69587, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6945 post-nfp low takes out the 61.8% fib and puts the 78.6% at 0.6941, then the 0.6931 london low, in play
M15 close above the 0.6952 range top and the 0.6959 lower high reopens the path to the 0.6975 nfp high
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity into the weekend; next USD catalyst is Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7)
Double top at nfp high, lower highs into late NY, retest of london high.
The soft US NFP print (29K vs 90K) lifted AUD/USD about 27 pips in the 12:30 GMT bar, but a double top at the 0.6975 nfp high and a run of lower highs since London close have erased the move. Late in the NY session, price sits on the 0.6946 london high, below the 61.8% fib at 0.6948 with the 78.6% fib at 0.6941 next underneath.
Support: 0.69456, 0.69408, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69481, 0.6951, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78.6% fib at 0.6941 fully negates the NFP spike and exposes the pre-nfp low at 0.6931
Close back above the 61.8% fib at 0.6948 and the lower highs line near 0.6951 would stall the post-NFP fade
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; next scheduled AUD risk is the AU Services PMI on Oct 4 at 23:00 GMT
Double top at 0.6975, neckline broken, holding 61.8% fib.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) lifted AUD/USD from 0.6948 to the 0.6975 nfp high in the first hour of NY. That high was rejected twice, forming a double top, and price broke the 0.6963 neckline. The pair has since retraced to the 61.8% fib and post-nfp low near 0.6947, sitting below the ema20 at 0.6953 and just above the EMA50, with RSI(14) flat at 49.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6953, 0.6975
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6947 post-nfp low and 61.8% fib exposes the pre-nfp low at 0.6931
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6953 plus a break of the lower highs trendline would neutralise the fade
The nfp high at 0.6975 caps the double top; a close above it invalidates the pattern
Late NY on Friday after the London close: thin liquidity into the weekend can produce erratic M15 bars
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.6975 NFP high, retesting the pre-NFP range top.
The soft NFP print (29K vs 90K) lifted AUDUSD from 0.6938 to a 0.6975 NFP high, but NY session rejected that high and printed a run of lower highs. Price has given back about 78.6% of the spike and is retesting the 0.6946 pre-NFP high, sitting on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.6946, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6975
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6946 pre-NFP high returns price to the 0.6931–0.6946 pre-NFP range, with the range low at 0.6931 next
Recapture of the 0.6958 breakdown level breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.6975 NFP high
Thin late-NY / Friday liquidity into the weekend; next scheduled risk is AU Services PMI on Oct 4 at 23:00 GMT, then US ISM Services on Monday
NFP breakout above London high now retracing toward the breakout level.
The 29K NFP miss at 12:30 GMT drove AUDUSD from the 0.6931 pre-NFP low through the 0.6946 London high to the 0.6975 NFP high. The move has faded in the NY session, breaking the 0.6963 NY swing low. Price is now 0.6951, holding just above the 0.6949 post-NFP low near the 61.8% fib, with EMA50 flat underneath.
Support: 0.69489, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69627, 0.69752
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6946 London high fails the NFP breakout and puts the 0.6931 pre-NFP low back in view
Reclaiming the 0.6963 NY swing low undoes the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.6975 NFP high
Liquidity thins after London close into the weekend; Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 GMT is the next USD catalyst
NFP breakout reversed; lower high at 0.6974 and break of post-NFP low, now testing the breakout level.
The weak US NFP print at 12:30 GMT (29K vs 90K, wages soft) broke price out through the London high and set a session high at 0.6975. Supply capped it twice near that high, and a break of the post-NFP low at 0.6963 has since unwound the move to the 61.8% fib near 0.6949, where the pre-NFP high is now being retested. Price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.6949, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69627, 0.69752
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the post-NFP low at 0.6963 would neutralise the reversal read and put the session high at 0.6975 back in play
Failure to hold the pre-NFP high / 61.8% fib at 0.6949 would leave the full NFP move retraced, exposing the London high at 0.6946 and then the London low at 0.6931
Liquidity thins into the late-NY Friday close; the next scheduled risk is AU Services PMI on Oct 4 at 23:00 GMT
Lower high at 0.6974 after 0.6975 NY high; pullback holding the pre-NFP breakout at 0.6949.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K f/c) broke AUD out of its 0.6931–0.6946 London range to a 0.6975 NFP high. A lower high at 0.6974 and the loss of the 0.6963 shelf have since pulled price back to the 50% retracement near 0.6953. The 15:15 UTC low held at 0.6949, a retest of the NFP breakout level, and RSI(14) is neutral at 47 in the second half of NY.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6946, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6963, 0.6975
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6949 NFP breakout and the 0.6946 London high returns price to the pre-NFP range and exposes the 0.6931 London low.
A recovery through the 38.2% fib at 0.6958 and the 0.6963 shelf reopens the 0.6975 NFP high.
Friday liquidity thins after London close, and US ISM Services on Monday is the next USD catalyst for this read.
Breakout above London range, pulled back to 61.8% fib.
The 29K NFP miss lifted AUDUSD out of the 0.6931–0.6946 London range to an nfp high of 0.6975. Two rejections there have since unwound most of the move during NY hours, with price now retesting the fib 61.8 at 0.6949 just above the London high and capped by the ema20 at 0.6957; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.69489, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69572, 0.69752
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 0.6949 puts price back inside the London range, exposing the london high at 0.6946 and then the london low at 0.6931
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.6957 and then the nfp high at 0.6975 would restore the post-NFP breakout structure
Late-Friday NY liquidity into the weekend; next scheduled catalyst is US ISM Services on Monday at 14:00 GMT
15:17 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, fading into NY afternoon · RSI 51 · price 0.69569
NFP range break, double top at session high, retracing.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) produced a range break above the 0.6946 London high, running to a 0.6975 NY session high. A lower high at 0.6974 and the close below the 0.6963 broken low form a double top, and price is now back at the 50% fib of the NFP move, testing the 0.6956 post-NFP low with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.69559, 0.69522, 0.69456
Resistance: 0.6963, 0.6974, 0.69752
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6956 post-nfp low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.6952, then the 0.6946 london high as a retest of the breakout
Recovery back above the 0.6963 broken low negates the double top; the 0.6974 lower high and 0.6975 nfp high remain the cap above
Late Friday NY trade with no further US data until ISM Services Monday leaves this read driven by post-NFP positioning
Post-NFP range 0.6963–0.6975 above broken London high.
The 29K NFP miss at 12:30 GMT drove a range break through the Asian range and the London high at 0.6946, with a 44-pip post-NFP impulse to the NFP high at 0.6975. Mid-NY session, price is compressing between the post-NFP low at 0.6963 and 0.6975, holding inside the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the post-NFP impulse, with RSI(14) cooled to ~66.
Support: 0.69627, 0.69456
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 NFP high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6963 post-NFP low exposes the 38.2% post-NFP impulse fib near 0.6959, then a retest of the 0.6946 London high
Return below the London high at 0.6946 would mark the NFP breakout as a false break
Late-Friday NY hours may thin follow-through. ISM Services on Mon 14:00 GMT is the next USD catalyst
HH/HL chain since NFP; first higher low at 0.6963.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 GMT broke the pair out of the 0.6931–0.6946 London range, extending to a 0.6975 session high from a 0.6938 nfp leg low. The first pullback held the 0.6963 swing low, just above the 38.2% of the nfp leg fib. RSI(14) is near 68, short-term hot but not extreme.
Support: 0.69627, 0.69456, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6975 session high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
M15 close below the 0.6963 swing low exposes the 0.6946 london high for a retest
Return below the 0.6938 nfp leg low unwinds the NFP breakout
Liquidity typically thins into the Friday NY afternoon close; AU Services PMI on Oct 4 at 23:00 GMT is the next scheduled risk
Breakout from Asia/London range, shallow pullback under 0.6975.
The US NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) at 12:30 GMT broke AUDUSD out of the 0.6913–0.6946 Asia/London range, a 37-pip leg that topped at the 0.6975 session high. Early NY has since pulled back to a post-NFP low at 0.6963, holding just above the 38.2% of the NFP leg fib near 0.6961, with RSI(14) cooled to ~65.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6949, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6963 post-NFP low exposes the 50% of the NFP leg fib near 0.6957 and the 0.6949 NFP breakout level
Failure to hold the 0.6949 NFP breakout level puts price back inside the prior range and opens the 0.6931 London low
M15 close above the 0.6975 session high reopens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Friday London close in ~1.5h thins liquidity and can exaggerate moves around these levels
14:17 UTC
Uptrend after NFP breakout, first pullback forming · RSI 66 · price 0.69669
Broke pre-NFP London range; higher lows intact above post-nfp low.
The 29K NFP miss and softer wages broke AUDUSD out of the 0.6931–0.6946 London range, running to the 0.6975 NFP high before the latest bar pulled back to 0.6967. Mid-NY session, the post-nfp low at 0.6959 sits on the 38.2% of the NFP leg fib, while the Asia-to-London rising lows trendline holds well below.
Support: 0.6959, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6959 post-nfp low exposes a retest of the 0.6946 London high
Close above the 0.6975 NFP high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
A break back below the 0.6931 London low and the rising lows trendline would undo the breakout read
Friday NY afternoon into the weekend close; next USD catalyst is ISM Services on Oct 5
The soft US NFP (29K vs 90K, wages light) cleared the 0.6946 London high and lifted AUDUSD about 30 pips in two bars. That level had capped the pair since yesterday's NY session and through London's 0.6931–0.6946 band. Early NY has since built a higher low at 0.6966 above the 0.6959 nfp dip low, which sits on the 38.2% of the NFP leg, and set a session high at 0.6975; RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.69661, 0.69591, 0.69456
Resistance: 0.69752, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6959 nfp dip low (38.2% of the NFP leg fib) breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold 0.6946 london high puts price back inside the pre-NFP range
Close above 0.6975 session high opens the 0.7000 round number, with Wednesday's 0.6995 high just beneath
Loss of the 0.6966 higher low turns the NY structure into a range below the session high
Broke above London range, holding near session high.
The soft NFP print (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1% m/m) drove AUDUSD through the 0.6931–0.6946 London range, with the london high at 0.6946 giving way and price reaching a 0.6973 session high, about 40 pips above the pre-nfp low. The first nfp pullback held 0.6959 and bars are pinned near the highs, with RSI(14) at 74 and ATR near 7 pips, now roughly double the pre-release pace.
Support: 0.6959, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Close back below the 0.6959 nfp pullback low exposes the 0.6946 london high near the 61.8% of the nfp leg fib
Loss of the 0.6931 pre-nfp low and the rising lows line negates the breakout
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and thin pre-weekend NY hours could shift this read
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) sent a 21-pip candle through the London high at 0.6946, and the first post-NFP pullback held at 0.6959 before a fresh session high at 0.6972 early in the NY session. RSI(14) at 77 is stretched after the spike. The rising support line from the Asian low at 0.6913 through the pre-NFP low at 0.6931 is intact.
Support: 0.6959, 0.6946, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6972 session high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6959 nfp pullback low puts the 0.6946 London high retest in play
A close back below the 0.6946 London high would mark the NFP breakout as a false break
Break of the rising support line near the 0.6931 pre-NFP low invalidates the higher-low chain
Pullbacks into the 38.2–50% retrace of the pre-NFP leg (0.6956–0.6952) would test post-NFP demand
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC is a minor catalyst while the payroll repricing is still being digested
Higher lows since Asia; NFP spike cleared London high and Asian range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) lifted AUDUSD through the 0.6946 London high and the Asian range in the first hour of NY. Price tagged 0.6970 three times, and the rejection at the NFP high pulled it back toward the 0.6955 post-NFP low. The 61.8% fib of the spike sits on the London high, and the rising lows from Asia stay intact, with ATR roughly 60 pips after the spike.
Support: 0.69559, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69699, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 post-NFP low exposes the 0.6946 London high / 61.8% fib confluence
Close above the 0.6970 NFP high reopens the path to 0.7000 psych
Loss of the 0.6931 pre-NFP low breaks the rising lows and negates the breakout read
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could add volatility during NY hours
13:03 UTC
Impulsive uptrend after NFP, RSI hot · RSI 76 · price 0.69669
Post-NFP breakout above London range and prior-day high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) drove a 38-pip NY-open breakout from the 0.6931 swing low through the 0.6946 London high and yesterday's 0.6953 prior high. Price is now pausing just under the 0.6970 session high, with RSI(14) near 76 and ATR stretched by the release bars.
Support: 0.6953, 0.6946, 0.6931
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A hold above the 0.6953 prior high keeps the breakout intact; 50% fib of the NFP leg sits at the same area
A slip back below the 0.6946 London high marks the move as a false break
An M15 close above the 0.6970 session high opens the path to 0.7000 psych
A loss of the rising trendline from the Asia low near the 0.6931 swing low erodes the post-NFP structure
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC may add volatility to the post-NFP read
Higher lows since Asia; London range broken to upside on NFP.
US NFP at 12:30 GMT drove a ~21-pip spike out of the 0.6931–0.6946 London range to a 0.6969 nfp high. Price is holding near 0.6957, above yesterday's 0.6953 prior high, with the 13-pip upper wick showing some supply at the spike. Higher lows from the 0.6913 Asia low and the 0.6931 swing low remain intact, and RSI(14) at 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.69531, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69692, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.6953 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below the 0.6946 london high (61.8% of the nfp leg fib) reopens the London range
M15 close above the 0.6969 nfp high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Break of the higher lows trendline or the 0.6931 swing low would undo the session structure
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and the yield reaction to NFP during NY hours could shift this read
Higher lows from Asian low; London range broken higher.
Price pressed through the London high at 0.69456 just before the 12:30 GMT NFP release, then spiked to 0.69692 and cleared the 0.6950 psych level after a five-day slide left AUD oversold. Lows have been rising since the Asian low at 0.69126, with London holding a 0.69314–0.69456 range before the break. The release bar is inflating ATR.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69456, 0.69314
Resistance: 0.69692, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.6950 psych level would turn the NFP spike into a false break
A return under the london high at 0.69456 puts price back inside the London range and negates the breakout
Acceptance above the spike high at 0.69692 opens the 0.7000 round number
A break of the london low at 0.69314 and the rising-lows trendline ends the higher-low chain
NFP wage details and US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT can extend release volatility
12:17 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.69394
London range 0.6931–0.6946 capping the Asia advance off 0.6913.
Asia climbed from the 0.6913 asia low, and London has since held a 0.6931–0.6946 range. Supply capped the london high at 0.6946, while the pullback stalled near the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg on the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 4 pips, showing compression into US NFP at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 0.69314, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.69551
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) is minutes away and dominates; expect ATR to expand well beyond 4 pips
An M15 close above the london high at 0.6946 breaks the range and opens the prior high at 0.6955
An M15 close below the london low at 0.6931 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the asia low at 0.6913
Failure to hold 0.6913 brings the prior low at 0.6903 back into view
12:03 UTC
Recovering off yesterday's low, now flat · RSI 53 · price 0.69414
Higher lows from Asia, London range 0.6931–0.6946.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.6946 London high and has since rotated in a ~15-pip band above the 0.6931 London low, as AUD stabilises after Thursday's yield-driven slide. Lows are still rising off the 0.6913 Asian low and RSI(14) is neutral near 53 at the London-NY transition, with NFP minutes away.
Support: 0.69314, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.69551
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) can resolve the 0.6931–0.6946 range; a ~4-pip ATR understates the likely release move
M15 close above the 0.6946 London high opens the path to the 0.6955 prior high
Loss of the 0.6931 London low breaks the rising lows line and the 38.2% of the recovery fib, exposing the 0.6913 Asian low and then the 0.6903 prior low
11:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under session high · RSI 47 · price 0.6939
London range 0.6931–0.6946 after Asia rebound from 0.6913.
Asia rebounded from the 0.6913 asian low and London extended it to a 0.6946 session high before fading. Dips held in the 0.6931–0.6933 area, the London low near the 38.2% fib of that rally, and price sits mid-range at 0.6939. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is about 4 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 0.6931, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6955
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) is likely to resolve the 0.6931–0.6946 London range
A break below the 0.6931 london low exposes the 0.6913 asian low
Loss of 0.6903, the prior low from Thursday's selloff, would confirm a lower-low
A close above the 0.6946 session high opens the 0.6955 prior high
11:32 UTC
Recovery leg stalled, sideways into NFP · RSI 45 · price 0.6937
The Asia-London rebound from the 0.6913 Asian low ran into rejection at the 0.6946 London high. Price has since compressed in a 0.6931–0.6946 band, with the London low holding the 38.2% retracement of the leg and the rising line, and ATR near 4 pips ahead of US NFP at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 0.6931, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6950, 0.6956
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; ATR likely expands sharply
M15 close below the 0.6931 london low and rising line exposes the 0.6913 asian low, then the 0.6903 prior low from yesterday's ISM drop
Close above the 0.6946 london high brings the 0.6950 fib pivot and 0.6956 prior high into view
Lower highs off London session high, holding near 38.2% fib.
Yesterday's hot ISM prices paid sent the pair down to 0.6903. It then climbed from the 0.6913 asian low to a 0.6946 session high early in London, where it met rejection. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled price back to the 0.6931 swing low, around the 38.2% retrace of the overnight leg, with ranges compressing ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.69314, 0.69291, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69395, 0.69456, 0.6950
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~75 min, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.6931 swing low exposes the 0.6929 fib 50% and then the 0.6913 asian low
Close above the 0.6940 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the 0.6946 session high back in play, then 0.6950 psych
11:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the London high · RSI 46 · price 0.69355
Higher lows from 0.6903 to 0.6913 to 0.6933; lower highs off the 0.6946 London high.
The rebound from Thursday's post-ISM low at 0.6903 carried through Asia as US yields eased, and London printed a 0.6946 high. Since then, lower highs have pressed price back to the 0.6933 session low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-London high leg. That leaves a tight 0.6933–0.6946 range heading into NFP.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6933 session low / 38.2% fib exposes the 0.6913 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.6946 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.6956 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.6903, London ranging 0.6933–0.6946.
Buyers lifted AUDUSD off the 0.6913 asian low, and London cleared the Asian range top to a 0.6946 session high before fading back into a tight 0.6933–0.6946 range. The london low sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, and the rising trendline from the Asian low is intact. Price is coiling just under EMA20 ahead of US NFP.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.69559
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h45, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.6933 london low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.6913 asian low
M15 close above the 0.6946 session high opens the path to the 0.6956 prior high
London broke the Asian high then faded into lower highs, holding a shallow pullback.
London cleared the 0.6941 Asian high to a 0.6946 session high, then faded into lower highs. The dip held 0.6933, the 38.2% fib of the 0.6913 Asian low rally, and price is now retesting the old Asian high with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR under 5 pips ahead of US NFP.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6941, 0.6946, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6946 session high resumes the London breakout and opens the 0.6956 prior high
Close below the 0.6933 38.2% fib exposes the 0.6913 Asian low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker, ~2h) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 0.6903 prior low back in focus
10:17 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling under London high · RSI 46 · price 0.69348
Higher low at 0.6913 above Thursday's 0.6903 low; London high capped twice at 0.6945-46 and the micro higher-low chain is now broken.
After Thursday's ISM-driven slide to the 0.6903 prior low, AUD/USD held a higher low at 0.6913 in Asia and London extended to 0.6946. The London high was capped twice and price has faded to 0.6935, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Asia low to London high leg with RSI(14) neutral and NFP ahead.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.6933 and the 50% at 0.6929 exposes the asia low at 0.6913
M15 close above the london high at 0.6946 reopens Thursday's 0.6956 prior high
Loss of 0.6913 would put the 0.6903 prior low back in play
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; ATR near 4.6 pips is likely to expand sharply on the release
10:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below London high · RSI 53 · price 0.69393
Higher lows from Asian low, now a tight 0.6937–0.6946 range.
Price climbed from the 0.6913 asian low and London pushed above the Asian range top to a 0.6946 london high. That move recovered part of Thursday's yield-driven slide. Since then it has compressed in a 0.6937–0.6946 range, with RSI(14) flat near 53 and price sitting on EMA20 ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.6937, 0.6932, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6956
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) in ~2.5h could break the 0.6937–0.6946 range either way
M15 close above the 0.6946 london high opens the 0.6956 prior high from Thursday
Failure to hold the 0.6937 range low exposes the 0.6932 asia shelf, near the 38.2% of the asia-london leg
Loss of the 0.6913 asian low would cancel the higher-low sequence
Higher lows off Asian low; tight range under London high.
The Asia rebound from the 0.6913 asian low carried into London, which pushed above the Asian range top to a 0.6946 london high but has since stalled. Price is now compressing between the 0.6938 session low and 0.6946, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52, as AUD holds a modest bounce ahead of US NFP. The leg off the low remains intact above the 0.6933 fib 38.2.
Support: 0.69379, 0.6933, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6938 session low exposes the 0.6933 fib 38.2, then the 0.6913 asian low
M15 close above the 0.6946 london high reopens the 0.6950 round number and the 0.6956 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; current ATR of ~4 pips understates event-driven range
Higher lows since Asia; London broke the Asian high and is consolidating just above it.
Asia rebounded from the 0.6913 asian low and London cleared the 0.6941 asian high to a 0.6946 session high, recovering most of Thursday's yields-driven slide. Price is now coiling at 0.6939–0.6945 with higher lows intact, RSI(14) ~60 and price above both EMAs, ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.69409, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.6941 would turn the London break into a false break
Loss of the 0.6932 higher low, near 38.2% of the Asia-London rally, breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the asian low at 0.6913
Close above the session high at 0.6946 opens the 0.6950 round number and yesterday's prior high at 0.6956
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 0.6943
Higher-low chain from 0.6913; London broke the Asian range high, now capped at 0.6946.
London open broke above the Asian range high near 0.6941, then stalled at the 0.6946 session high. That high is the 78.6% retrace of Thursday's NY drop from 0.6956 to 0.6903, a move driven by fresh highs in US yields. Higher lows from the 0.6913 Asian low remain intact, with RSI(14) at 59 and well short of extremes.
Support: 0.69385, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.6939 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.6932 swing low, then the 0.6913 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.6946 session high clears the NY drop fib and opens the 0.6950 round number and 0.6956 prior high
Higher lows since Asia; London broke Asian high, now retesting it.
AUD rebounded from the 0.6913 asian low after Thursday's yield-driven drop to 0.6903. London broke the 0.6941 Asian high and capped at the 0.69456 london high. Mid-London, price is back retesting the Asian high, with a higher low at 0.69385 sitting on the rising trendline from the 0.69319 swing low.
Support: 0.69385, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69385 higher low and rising trendline turns the Asian-high break into a false break
Loss of the 0.69319 swing low exposes the 0.69126 asian low
Clearance of the 0.69456 london high puts the 0.6950 round number and 0.69559 prior high in view
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, pausing · RSI 56 · price 0.69397
HH/HL chain since Asia; London broke the Asian high, now retesting it.
After Thursday's yield-driven NY slide to 0.6903, Asia built higher lows from the 0.6913 asian low as USD squared positions ahead of NFP. London open lifted price through the 0.6941 asian high to a 0.6946 session high. Price has since slipped back onto that level and is sitting on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.6937, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69409, 0.69456, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6937 london low and the rising trendline would turn the Asian-high breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.6932 pullback low, near the 38.2% of the asia-london leg, exposes the 0.6913 asian low
M15 close above the 0.6946 session high reopens Thursday's 0.6956 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) and AHE can override this intraday structure
08:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 0.69425
Higher lows since the 0.6913 Asian low; London broke above the Asian range.
London open broke the 0.6941 Asian high, and price has since stalled at a 0.6946 session high near the 78.6% fib of Thursday's 0.6956–0.6903 drop. Higher lows off the 0.6913 Asian low are holding the trendline as early-Europe position squaring ahead of NFP trims the USD bid. RSI(14) sits near 61 and ATR is compressed at ~4.5 pips.
Support: 0.6941, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69456, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6941 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 0.6946 session high and 0.6950 round number opens the path to the 0.6956 prior high
Loss of the 0.6932 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.6913 Asian low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering Thursday's NY drop · RSI 61 · price 0.69418
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, London opened above the Asian range.
AUD has stepped higher in a higher-low chain from the 0.6913 Asian low after Thursday's yield-driven NY slide. Early London broke the Asian high at 0.6941 but stalled at the 0.6946 London high, near the 78.6% retracement of yesterday's drop. Price now sits on the Asian high as first support.
Support: 0.69409, 0.6937, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69455, 0.69559
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.6937 swing low breaks the Asian rising trendline and the higher-low chain
A close back inside the Asian range below the 0.6941 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
A close above the 0.6946 London high and the 78.6% retracement opens the 0.6956 prior high
HH/HL chain off 0.6913 Asia low, pulling back to rising trendline.
Thursday's yield-driven slide to 0.6903 during NY hours has been retraced through the Asia session in steady higher lows. The rally ran from the 0.6913 Asia low to a 0.6942 session high near the London open. Price is now easing back onto the rising trendline with RSI(14) neutral around 55 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.6932, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69424, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6932 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 50% fib near 0.6928, then the 0.6913 Asia low
Close above the 0.6942 session high opens the 0.6950 psych level and the 0.6956 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.6913 Asia low puts the 0.6903 prior low back in play
HH/HL chain off the NY low; London open poking above the Asian high.
AUD has recovered from Thursday's NY-session drop to 0.6903, when hot ISM prices paid fed the firm, yield-driven USD. Higher lows at 0.6913 and 0.6932 carried price through the Asian range. The London open printed a 0.6942 london high just above the 0.6939 asian high, with ATR(14) compressed near 4 pips ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.69387, 0.69319, 0.69126
Resistance: 0.69421, 0.69447, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6939 asian high turns the London push into a false break
Break of the 0.6932 swing low and the rising support line ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.6913 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.6945 78.6% fib of the drop leaves the 0.6956 prior high as the next reference
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 60 · price 0.6941
HH/HL chain off the 0.6913 asian low, testing the Asian range top at London open.
Yesterday's NY-session slide from the 0.6956 yday high to the 0.6903 yday low came on firm USD after ISM prices paid. Asia then built higher lows from the 0.6913 asian low, and London open is pressing the 0.6942 range top inside the 61.8–78.6% fib zone, with the 0.6948 prior high just above.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 prior high and the 78.6% fib exposes the 0.6956 yday high
Break of the asia rising trendline and the 0.6932 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.6913 asian low reopens the 0.6903 yday low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Asia recovery, stalling under the Asian high · RSI 58 · price 0.69366
Higher lows from 0.6913 into a tight 0.6932–0.6941 box at London open.
Asia climbed off the 0.6913 asian low and London opens pinned under the 0.6941 asian high. Price sits at the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 0.6956–0.6903 drop, which began on the 14:00 UTC ISM bar as hot prices paid lifted the USD. Higher lows are holding the 0.6932 range low, and ATR of about 3.8 pips shows the pre-NFP compression.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6941, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6941 asian high breaks the box and exposes the 0.6956 prior high
Loss of the 0.6932 range low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.6913 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; 0.6950 is the digest's reclaim level
Asia higher-low chain from 0.6913, capped under 0.6941 asian high.
Asia rebuilt from the 0.6913 asian low to a 0.6941 asian high on a chain of higher lows. That retraces about 61.8% on the fib of yesterday's NY-session drop from the 0.6956 prior high to the 0.6903 prior low, which followed the hot ISM prices-paid print. Price is stalling just under the asian high into London open, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 3.7 pips as the market waits for NFP.
Support: 0.69319, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69409, 0.69447, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6941 asian high extends the higher-low chain toward the 78.6% fib at 0.6945 and the 0.6956 prior high
Break of the 0.6932 higher low breaks the asia trendline and exposes the 0.6913 asian low, then the 0.6903 prior low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, testing range top · RSI 64 · price 0.69381
Higher lows since 0.6913 Asian low, pressing Asian high 0.6940.
Yesterday's NY-hours slide from the 0.6956 prior high to the 0.6903 prior low followed the hot ISM prices paid print. Late Asia has retraced past the 61.8% level of that drop, with higher lows off the 0.6913 Asian low and the 0.6932 swing low. Price is now capped at the 0.6940 Asian high ahead of London open, RSI(14) firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6940, 0.6950, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6940 Asian high opens the 0.6950 78.6% fib, then the 0.6956 prior high
Close below the 0.6932 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low trendline
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 0.6913 Asian low and 0.6903 prior low are the downside reference levels
06:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing Asian high · RSI 64 · price 0.69365
Rising lows under a flat 0.6939 cap, three tests since 03:45 UTC.
Asia reversed the NY-hours slide that followed yesterday's hot ISM prices-paid print, which ran to a 0.6903 ny low. Rising lows built off the 0.6913 asian low, and price has now capped at the 0.6939 asian high three times. The 0.6932 higher low sits just below as London opens, in line with the digest's USD pause ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.6932, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6939 asian high opens the path to the 0.6950 area and the 0.6956 prior high
Break of the 0.6932 higher low and the asian rising lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6913 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; the 0.6903 ny low is the downside reference
06:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 60 · price 0.69335
Higher lows off 0.6913, tight 0.6932–0.6939 consolidation.
Asia session reversed the early dip to the asian low at 0.6913 with a chain of higher lows along a rising Asia trendline. Price is now compressed between the 0.6932 higher low and the 0.6939 asian high ahead of London open, holding about 30 pips above yesterday's NY-session low at 0.6903, where the move came on firm US yields.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6924, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.6950, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6939 asian high opens the round number at 0.6950 and the prior high at 0.6956
Loss of the 0.6932 higher low and the Asia trendline exposes the 0.6924 swing low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 68 · price 0.69366
HL at 0.6913, Asian high pressing the 61.8% retrace.
Late Asia has climbed from the 0.6913 asian low through the 0.6933 ny high, recovering about 61.8% of yesterday's 0.6956–0.6903 drop that followed the strong US ISM prices data. Price now sits just under the 0.6939 asian high with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR around 3 pips. The pair is quiet ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.6945, 0.6956
What it said to watch
Hold above the 0.6933 ny high keeps the Asian uptrend line intact; a break back below it puts the asian low at 0.6913 in focus
M15 close above the 0.6939 asian high exposes the 78.6% fib at 0.6945 and the 0.6956 prior high
Loss of 0.6913 retests the 0.6903 day low and negates the higher-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher low at 0.6913 vs 0.6903; capped at 0.6938 Asian high.
Late Asia session: AUDUSD bounced off a 0.6913 Asian low, a higher low versus Thursday's 0.6903 prior low after the ISM Prices Paid beat drove the drop from 0.6956. The bounce stalled at a 0.6938 Asian high, right at the 61.8% retrace of that drop. Price is compressing at 0.6932–0.6936 above EMA20/50 into London open, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61 and the higher lows line intact.
Support: 0.69241, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69382, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6938 Asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and brings the 0.6950 round number and 0.6956 prior high into view
Loss of the 0.6924 higher low points back to the 0.6913 Asian low, with the 0.6903 prior low below
London open is the first test of the 0.6913–0.6938 Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Thursday's NY selloff on firm US yields bottomed at the 0.6903 ny low. The Asia session printed a higher low at the 0.6913 asian low, then climbed along a rising line to a 0.6938 asian high before stalling in a 0.6932–0.6936 band, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR around 3 pips into London open.
Support: 0.6932, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69382, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6932 micro low opens a retrace of the asian leg toward the 38.2–50% zone (0.6928–0.6925)
Break of the rising Asia line and the 0.6913 asian low would negate the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.6938 asian high exposes the 0.6956 london high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher high and higher low in Asia · RSI 64 · price 0.69334
Late Asia, retesting broken NY high from above.
Thursday's 14:00 UTC slide from the 0.6956 prior high to the 0.6903 prior low tracked fresh highs in US yields and a hot ISM prices-paid read. Asia has since put in a higher low at the 0.6913 asian low and lifted to a 0.6938 asian high, clearing the 0.6933 ny high; price is now retesting that level with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.6933, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69382, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6933 ny high returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 0.6938 asian high opens the path toward the 0.6956 prior high
Loss of the 0.6913 asian low negates the higher low and exposes the 0.6903 prior low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; London open first
Higher lows from 0.6903; stalling at 61.8% retrace.
Late in the Asia session, AUDUSD bounced from the 0.6913 Asian low and cleared the 0.6932 late NY high. It then stalled at the 0.6938 session high, just above the 61.8% fib of yesterday's ISM drop from 0.6956 to the 0.6903 day low, which came as firm US data and yields lifted USD. Rising lows from 0.6903 remain intact, ATR(14) is only ~3 pips into London, and price is retesting 0.6932 from above.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6938, 0.6945, 0.6956
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.6932 late NY high keeps the rising lows sequence intact; failure reopens the 0.6913 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.6938 session high exposes the 78.6% fib at 0.6945, then the 0.6956 prior high
Break of the rising lows line and a close below the 0.6903 day low would resume the post-ISM downtrend
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Short-term recovery after Thursday's NY sell-off, momentum pausing · RSI 60 · price 0.69326
Higher-low chain off the 0.6913 Asian low, stalling below the 0.6938 Asian high.
Asia session reversed an early dip to the 0.6913 Asian low and climbed in a higher-low chain to 0.6938, where a rejection has price easing back toward 0.6933. Thursday's NY sell-off on firm US data and record-high yields set the 0.6903 NY low, and price is still trading below the 0.6950 round number ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.69254, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69382, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6938 Asian high extends the higher-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number, with the 0.6956 prior high behind it
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 0.6925 exposes the 0.6913 Asian low and the rising lows line near 0.6915
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 0.6903 NY low is the reference below the session range
Higher-low chain off the 0.6913 Asia low, stalling near the 61.8% retrace.
Asia session dipped to 0.6913, then climbed in a steady higher-low chain that has retraced about 62% of Thursday's NY drop (0.6956–0.6903), with the 0.6938 Asia high rejected and RSI(14) near 72. Price is sitting on the rising trendline and above the 0.6931 flip level, while USD stays firm on high yields into NFP.
Support: 0.6931, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69382, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6931 flip level and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.6913 Asia low
Close above the 0.6938 Asia high clears the 61.8% fib of the NY drop and opens the 0.6956 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; 0.6903 prior low is the downside reference
Asia session rallied about 23 pips off the 0.6913 Asian low, clearing the 0.6933 late NY high and tagging the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's NY drop from the 0.6956 London high to the 0.6903 NY low, which came as yields lifted the USD around the ISM release. Higher lows at 0.6903, 0.6911 and 0.6913 define a rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 69 and the 0.6940 breakdown level directly overhead.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6940, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6933 late NY high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.6940 breakdown level opens the path to the 0.6956 London high
Loss of the 0.6913 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6903 NY low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a post-NY range · RSI 72 · price 0.6933
Higher lows off the Asian low, testing range top at 0.6933.
Since the NY slide to 0.6903 on firm US data and rising yields, AUDUSD has held a 0.6903–0.6933 range. Asia dipped to the 0.6913 asian low early, then built higher lows back to the 0.6933 ny high, just below the 61.8% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 0.69241, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69332, 0.69358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 ny high and the 61.8% fib at 0.6936 opens the path to the 0.6955 london high
Failure back below the 0.6924 hl pivot breaks the higher-low chain and returns focus to the 0.6913 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a loss of the 0.6903 ny low breaks the range
03:32 UTC
Recovery from NY low, higher lows intact · RSI 65 · price 0.69325
Higher-low chain since 0.6903 low, pressing NY high.
The 14:00 UTC ISM print (Prices Paid beat) sent AUDUSD from 0.6956 to a 0.6903 NY low. Since then lows have stepped up at 0.6909, 0.6911 and the 0.6913 Asian low. Asia session is now pressing the 0.6933 NY high, just under the 61.8% fib of that drop, with RSI(14) at 65 and the ema20 near 0.6925.
Support: 0.6925, 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6936, 0.6956
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6933 NY high and the 61.8% fib opens the path to the 0.6956 London high
Break below the 0.6913 Asian low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6903 NY low
Loss of the ema20 near 0.6925 shows the Asia-session push stalling under the NY high
03:17 UTC
Rebounding inside a post-selloff range · RSI 55 · price 0.69284
Higher lows from 0.6903 NY low, capped below 0.6933.
Mid-Asia session, price has rebounded from the 0.6913 Asian low to retest the Asian range high near 0.6929. That puts it at the 50% retracement of Thursday's post-ISM, USD-driven slide from the 0.6956 prior high to the 0.6903 NY low. Lows are rising along the higher lows line, while the 0.6933 late-NY high still caps the range.
Support: 0.69235, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 late-NY high clears the 50% retracement and opens the 0.6956 prior high
Hold of the 38.2% fib at 0.6924 on dips keeps the higher-lows rebound intact
Break of the 0.6913 Asian low ends the higher lows sequence and exposes the 0.6903 NY low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
0.6903–0.6933 range after NY sell-off, higher low in Asia.
The 0.6956 london high gave way after the US ISM release, with Prices Paid read as hawkish and a firm USD driving a slide to the 0.6903 ny low during NY hours. Price has since held a 0.6903–0.6933 band. The Asia session dipped to a 0.6913 asian low, a higher low, and has recovered to 0.6926, sitting between the fib 38.2 at 0.6924 and the 50% level just under the 0.6929 asian high.
Support: 0.69235, 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69292, 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6933 ny high takes price through the 50% fib and puts the 61.8% at 0.6936 in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6913 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and re-exposes the 0.6903 ny low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print risks a break below 0.69
Rejection at the 0.6929 asian high keeps the Asia session inside its range
02:47 UTC
Flat after NY selloff, rebounding in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.69259
Higher lows off 0.6903; price back at Asian range top.
Late Asia session: an early dip to the 0.6913 asian low held above the 0.6903 ny low, which was set after the ISM-driven USD bid. Price has recovered to the 0.6929 asian high, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NY selloff, with rising lows still intact and ATR compressed near 4 pips ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.69126, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69291, 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6929 asian high and the 0.6933 ny high reopens the 50–61.8% zone of the NY selloff toward 0.6956 day high
Loss of 0.6913 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6903 ny low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; London open likely sets the pre-data range
02:32 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, Asia bounce · RSI 48 · price 0.6926
Range 0.6903–0.6933, higher low in Asia.
The Asia session dipped to an asian low of 0.6913, then recovered to 0.6926, printing a higher low above Thursday's 0.6903 ny low. That low came after resilient US data and firm yields drove the post-ISM sell-off. Price now sits mid-range below the 0.6933 ny high, which capped the recovery near the 50–61.8% retrace of the ny sell-off, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.6913, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6913 asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6903 ny low
Close above the 0.6933 ny high clears the 61.8% retrace of the ny sell-off and opens the 0.6955 london high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia drifting lower · RSI 33 · price 0.69179
Lower high at 0.6933 under 0.6956; Asia testing toward NY low.
The NY drop from the 0.6956 prior high hit a 0.6903 NY low as resilient US data and fresh yield highs lifted USD. The rebound stalled at the 0.6933 NY high, just under the 61.8% fib of that drop. Mid-Asia session, price slipped from the 0.6929 Asian high to a 0.6913 Asian low, now sitting below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.69126, 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69291, 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6913 Asian low exposes the 0.6903 NY low and the 0.6900 psych handle
Break under 0.6903 sets a fresh lower-low in the window
Reclaim of the 0.6929 Asian high and the 0.6933 NY high would undo the lower-high read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Asia session broke the quiet 0.6924–0.6929 overnight range lower from the 0.6929 asian high. A string of lower highs, the latest at 0.6919, has pressed price to a 0.6913 session low as USD firmness into NFP extends. Price now sits about 10 pips above yesterday's prior low at 0.6903, with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR(14) a tight ~3.4 pips.
Support: 0.69126, 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69196, 0.69292, 0.6933
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6913 session low exposes the 0.6903 prior low and the 0.6900 psych level
M15 close above the 0.6919 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 50% fib of the Asia selloff sits near 0.6923
Reclaim of the 0.6929 asian high and the 0.6933 ny high would neutralise the Asia breakdown
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia leg lower · RSI 27 · price 0.69143
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since Tokyo open.
Early in Asia session, AUDUSD broke below the post-rollover Asian range (asian low 0.6924, asian high 0.6929) and has printed lower highs down to 0.6914. That puts price at the 61.8% of the NY recovery fib from the 0.6903 ny low, after Thursday's yield-driven USD bid. RSI(14) at 27 is soft but not extreme, and ATR is a thin ~3 pips.
Support: 0.69086, 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69292, 0.6933
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6909 swing low exposes the 0.6903 ny low and the 0.69 psych handle
M15 close back above the descending line and the 0.6924 asian low invalidates the breakdown read
Recovery through the 0.6929 asian high and the 0.6933 late ny high would neutralise the NY recovery fib breach
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia-open break below the post-rollover range; lower-high sequence since London.
AUDUSD slipped through the 0.6924 range floor at the Asia open and is sitting on the 0.6916 Asia low. Price has given back about half of the NY rebound off the 0.6903 NY low, a sell-off that came on firm US data and fresh dollar highs. RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 3 pips point to a thin, drifting Asian session ahead of Friday's NFP.
Support: 0.69163, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69238, 0.69292, 0.6933
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6916 Asia low exposes the 0.6911 swing low and the 0.6903 NY low
Recovery back above the 0.6924 range floor puts price back inside the prior range, with the 0.6929 Asia high above
Close above the 0.6933 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the 0.6956 London-NY peak
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside; lower high at 0.6933 below the 0.6956 window high.
The NY-session slide on firm US claims and ISM prices took AUDUSD from 0.6950 to a 0.6903 NY low. The late-NY recovery capped at 0.6933, a late ny high well below the 0.6956 peak. Early Asia session has now broken the 0.6924–0.6929 Asian range lower and is sitting near the 50% fib of that recovery, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6933
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6910 swing low exposes the 0.6903 NY low and the 0.6900 psych level
A M15 close back above the 0.6924 Asian low negates the range break
Price above the 0.6933 late ny high would undo the lower-high sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is beyond the next few hours but is the main event risk for this structure
Overnight range broken lower in early Asia; lower high at 0.6933 under the 0.6956 London high.
The ISM-driven NY drop from the 0.6956 London high bottomed at the 0.6903 NY low, with resilient US data and yield highs weighing on AUD. The rebound stalled at 0.6933, a lower high just shy of the 61.8% retrace of the ISM drop. Early Asia has now broken the 0.6924 range floor, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6933, 0.6956
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6911 higher low exposes the 0.6903 NY low and the 0.69 handle
M15 close back above the 0.6924 range floor negates the Asia break
Close above the 0.6933 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline from the London high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6903 day low, lower highs below 0.6933 in tight Asian range.
Thursday's NY-session slide from the 0.6956 prior high to the 0.6903 day low came on resilient US data and fresh yield highs. The rebound stalled at 0.6933, just under the 61.8% retrace. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.6921–0.6929 Asian range, with price sitting on the 38.2% and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69214, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69292, 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.6921 asian low exposes the 0.6911 swing low and the rising lows trendline
Close above the 0.6929 asian high and 0.6933 rebound high reopens the 61.8% near 0.6936
Failure to hold the 0.6903 day low confirms a lower low; the 0.6956 prior high caps the upside
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Down from NY drop, recovery stalling · RSI 50 · price 0.69288
Asian range broken lower in NY; higher low 0.6911, capped at 0.6933.
NY session broke the Asian range lower after the ISM prices paid beat extended the USD streak, with the slide ending at the 0.6903 NY low. The rebound built a higher low at 0.6911 but stalled at the 0.6933 late NY high near the 50% retrace. Early Asia session is drifting in a tight band above the 0.6924 rollover low.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69358, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 late NY high and the 61.8% fib at 0.6936 opens the path back toward the 0.6956 day high
Failure to hold the 0.6924 rollover low and the 0.6911 higher low reopens the 0.6903 NY low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read