Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low · RSI 35 · price 0.68621
LH/LL chain from the 0.7237 September high; October low broken.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 September high. The late-October rebound stalled at a 0.7068 lower high, and price is below a falling EMA(50). This week the dovish RBA hike, then the blowout US NFP and the AI-led risk-off, reversed the brief push back above 0.7000 psych. Price has now closed through the 0.6894 oct low and set a nov low at 0.6854. Daily RSI near 35 is soft but not yet oversold, and ATR has widened to roughly 49 pips.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6894, 0.7000, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above 0.6894 (oct low) would turn the break into a false break
- Failure to hold the 0.6854 nov low brings the 0.6833 9-month low into play
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
- A recovery above 0.7000 psych and the 0.7068 lower high would break the LH/LL sequence
- Crowded AUD shorts leave scope for a sharp squeeze if risk sentiment rebounds
19:25 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low · RSI 36 · price 0.68621
LH/LL chain from the early-Sept 0.7237 peak; late-Oct lower high at 0.7068, Oct floor broken.
Two-month downtrend from the early-September 0.7237 peak. Price stays below a falling EMA(50), and each weekly bounce has stalled at a lower high, most recently 0.7068 in late October. This week's dovish RBA hike, then the strong US NFP and AI-led risk-off, broke the six-week 0.6894–0.7068 range, with Friday printing a new low at 0.6854 and closing at 0.6862. RSI near 36 is weak but not yet oversold, and the 9-month low at 0.6833 sits just beneath.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6894, 0.7000, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 0.6894 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
- Failure to hold the 0.6833 9-month low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6800 round number
- Reclaiming the 0.7000 psych level, which coincides with the 38.2% sept-nov fib, would challenge the lower-high sequence
- A break of the lower-high line or a daily close above 0.7068 invalidates the downtrend read
- US CPI on Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- AU Consumer Inflation Expectations on Thu Nov 12 00:00 UTC could reprice RBA pricing; specs are already deeply net short AUD