22:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 42 · price 0.69233
Lower highs and lower lows since the early-September top.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 top in early September. The late-October rally stalled with a rejection at the 0.7068 lower high, near the descending trendline. That rally faded through last week after the dovish-leaning RBA hike, then the strong US payrolls print on Friday took price to a new swing low at 0.6854, below the mid-October 0.6894 oct low. Monday's bounce back to 0.6923 lifted RSI to around 42, but price is still below a falling EMA20 and EMA50, with daily ranges widening to roughly 50 pips of ATR.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- US October CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) is the main event risk and could materially shift this read
- A daily close back above the 0.6975 ema20 and the 0.7000 psych level would mark the first recovery of trend resistance
- A close above the 0.7068 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
- A daily close below the 0.6854 swing low extends the lower-low chain; failure to hold the 0.6894 oct low first weakens the bounce