Double bottom at 0.6854, higher lows since Monday open, testing 38.2% retrace.
The week's dominant move was Thursday's NY-session slide from the 0.7024 double top, which extended into Friday's NFP spike low at 0.6854. Sunday's open found demand at the same week low, completing a double bottom, and Monday's NY session carried the bounce to the 0.6931 monday high as broad USD selling followed lower oil and yields. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.6907 with a rising trendline of Monday higher lows intact, sitting just above the 38.2% retrace of the 0.7024–0.6854 slide, while RSI(14) has cooled to around 64 from the NY push.
Support: 0.6907, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6939, 0.6959
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6931 monday high and the 0.6939 50% fib opens the path to the 61.8% fib near 0.6959
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 0.6907 exposes the 0.6879 higher low
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low negates the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC first
22:05 UTC
Recovery leg inside the week's downtrend · RSI 66 · price 0.69251
Double bottom breakout, higher lows since Monday open.
Thursday's NY-session break below 0.7000 drove a 170-pip slide from 0.7024 to 0.6854 on Friday. Monday's Asia session retested that low and held, forming a double bottom. Broad USD selling on Monday then carried price through the 0.6905 neckline and above both EMAs. NY hours extended the run in a series of higher lows, holding above the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 with RSI(14) near 66. Price has stalled at the 0.6931 monday high, just under the 50% retracement at 0.6939 and the friday high at 0.6942.
Support: 0.69189, 0.69055, 0.68539
Resistance: 0.69305, 0.69417, 0.69591
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6942 friday high opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 0.6959
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the ema20 near 0.6906 would break Monday's higher-low sequence
Return below the 0.6854 double bottom low voids the reversal structure
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC may add volatility during the Asia session
Lower high at 0.7024; Monday higher lows off the 0.6854 low.
Thursday's London-NY selloff from 0.7024 extended through Friday's NFP spike to a 0.6854 friday low. Since the weekly open at 0.6867, broad USD weakness on lower oil and yields has carried price back above EMA(20) near 0.6905 and the ema50 at 0.6911, with Monday higher lows building through London and NY. Late in the NY session the bounce reached 0.6930, just under the fib 50% retracement of the Thursday-Friday decline at 0.6939, which sits inside Friday's Asian congestion. RSI(14) is near 67.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6867, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.6960, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fib 50% at 0.6939 opens the 0.6960 breakdown zone and the 0.7000 round number
A close back below the ema50 at 0.6911 and the Monday higher lows line puts the weekly open at 0.6867 back in view
Failure to hold 0.6867 brings the 0.6854 friday low and the downtrend lows back into play
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC is a secondary AUD risk
Double bottom at 0.6854 broken higher; price retracing Thu–Fri decline.
The 170-pip slide from 0.7024 began in Thursday's NY session and bottomed at 0.6854 around Friday's NFP release. Monday's retest of that week low held, forming a double bottom, and the bounce cleared the 0.6893 neckline on broad USD softness tied to US-Iran peace hopes and lower yields. Price now sits at the 0.6925 monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the decline. Pullbacks since London's 0.6879 low are making higher lows above the ema20 near 0.6902, and RSI(14) is near 72.
Support: 0.6902, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6925, 0.6942, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6902 ema20 would put the double bottom breakout at risk
Acceptance above 0.6942, Friday's pre-breakdown high, opens the 61.8% fib near 0.6959 and the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6879 london low breaks Monday's higher-low sequence and refocuses the 0.6854 week low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC tonight is a secondary risk
Monday higher lows from 0.6855 swing low, price pressing the 38.2% retrace.
Thursday's London-NY selloff from the 0.7024 week high ran to the 0.6854 swing low around Friday's NFP beat. Broad USD selling on Monday has since lifted the pair from the Asian range into a 0.6915 day high during NY hours, with price holding above the ema20 near 0.6898, sitting just over the EMA50 near 0.6908, and RSI(14) near 67. Monday's higher lows from the swing low to the 0.6879 pullback low remain intact, while the 38.2% fib of the Thu–Fri drop at 0.6919 and the Friday high at 0.6942 sit directly overhead.
Support: 0.6898, 0.68793, 0.68539
Resistance: 0.69151, 0.6919, 0.69417
What it said to watch
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 opens the Friday high at 0.6942
Loss of the ema20 near 0.6898 and then the 0.6879 pullback low breaks Monday's higher lows
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC may move the Asian session range
Higher lows off 0.6854 week low, capped near 38.2% fib.
After topping at 0.7024 on Thursday, the Thursday–Friday decline accelerated through the NY session and bottomed at the 0.6854 week low on the NFP spike. Monday's Asia open retested that area and held, forming a double bottom. Broad USD weakness on risk-on flows has since driven a sequence of higher lows at 0.6879 and 0.6890, with price holding above ema20 near 0.6897 and RSI(14) in the mid-60s. The bounce is now pressing the 0.6915 session high just under the fib 38.2 retracement at 0.6919.
Support: 0.6897, 0.6890, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6915, 0.6919, 0.6942
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6919 fib 38.2 opens the 0.6942 prior high from Friday's Asia session
Break below the 0.6890 higher low and the higher lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6854 week low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC may move the Asian range
AUDUSD has recovered about 57 pips from Monday's 0.6854 week low, which matched Friday's post-NFP low to form a double bottom, as the dollar slipped on risk-on flows and lower oil. Asia drove the first leg, London pulled back to the 0.6879 pullback low, and a NY retest held the 0.6890 higher low before a push to a 0.6912 session high, with price back above EMA(20) and marginally above EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 64. Price now sits just under the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday slide at 0.6919, with the 50% fib at 0.6940 the next reference.
Support: 0.6890, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6919, 0.6940, 0.6959
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6919 38.2% fib opens the 50% fib at 0.6940, then the 61.8% fib at 0.6959
Break of the 0.6890 higher low and the higher-low trendline undoes the double bottom read, exposing the 0.6879 pullback low and 0.6854 week low
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Fed Waller Tue 09:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC tonight is the first AUD-side test of the rebound
Double bottom at 0.6854, higher lows since London open.
Thursday's NY-session break from the 0.7000–0.7024 range ran into Friday's NFP beat, printing the 0.6854 nfp low. Monday's Asia open retested that low within a pip and rebounded as risk-on flows weighed on USD. Since the London low at 0.6879, H1 has built higher lows, reclaimed the ema20 near 0.6893 and held a retest of it in NY hours. The monday high at 0.6907 sits below the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop at 0.6919, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.6893, 0.68793, 0.68539
Resistance: 0.69071, 0.69189, 0.6939
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 opens the 50% fib at 0.6939
Loss of the ema20 and a break of the 0.6879 london low ends the Monday higher-low sequence
Break below the 0.6854 nfp low negates the double bottom
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend from 0.7024, rebounding off week low · RSI 58 · price 0.69013
Double bottom at 0.6854, higher low at 0.6879, capped at 0.6906.
The week's dominant move was Thursday's break from the 0.7000–0.7024 range. It extended through Friday's NFP beat to a 0.6854 week low as an AI-led equity rout lifted haven USD. Monday's Asia session retested the week low and held, forming a double bottom, and broad USD weakness on US-Iran peace hopes lifted price above EMA(20) at 0.6892 and the 23.6% fib, with a higher low at 0.6879 printed around the London open. The Monday high at 0.6906 sits on EMA(50) and is capping into the NY session; RSI(14) near 58 reflects recovery rather than extension.
Support: 0.6892, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6906, 0.6942, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6906 monday high and EMA(50) opens the path to the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the 0.6942 pause shelf from Friday's Asia session
Above the pause shelf, the 0.7000 psych level that failed last week is the next structural ceiling
Loss of the 0.6879 higher low and the higher lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6854 week low and the double bottom
Fed speakers Goolsbee and Barkin today, then Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC, could shift the read
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; Monday higher lows capped at EMA(50).
AUDUSD lost the 0.7000–0.7024 range during Thursday's London-NY transition as the AI-led equity rout lifted the USD. The slide reached a 0.6854 week low on Friday's NFP beat before the post-release spike faded. Since the Sunday open, a softer USD on Iran peace hopes has produced higher lows at 0.6855 and the 0.6879 london low, but the monday high at 0.6906 sits right at EMA(50) and has capped three hourly attempts. Price holds just above the ema20 near 0.6890 with RSI(14) around 56, and the bounce has only reached the 23.6% retracement of the week decline.
Support: 0.6890, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6906, 0.6919, 0.6942
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6906 monday high and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919, then the 0.6942 lower high
Hourly closes back below the ema20 near 0.6890 return the read to consolidation under EMA(50)
Break of the 0.6879 london low ends the higher lows sequence and puts the 0.6854 week low back in play
Westpac consumer confidence (23:30 UTC) and US October CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; double bottom at 0.6854 with a Monday higher low at 0.6879.
The week's dominant move was the Thursday NY-session break of the 0.7000–0.7024 shelf as an AI-led equity rout lifted haven USD. Friday's NFP beat extended the slide to a 0.6854 week low, which Monday's Asia open retested and held, forming a double bottom. Monday's higher lows from that base, with the London low at 0.6879 holding, have lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.6891 with RSI(14) at 58. The rebound has stalled at the 0.6906 Monday high, just beneath EMA(50) near 0.6908 and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline at 0.6919.
Support: 0.6891, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6906, 0.6919, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6906 Monday high and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919; acceptance there brings the 0.7000 psych level back into view
Loss of the 0.6879 London low breaks the Monday higher lows trendline and returns focus to the 0.6854 week low
H1 close below the 0.6854 week low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
Westpac consumer confidence at 23:30 UTC tonight and US October CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; double bottom at 0.6854 with Monday higher lows.
The week's dominant move came in NY hours from Wednesday's 0.7024 high, as Thursday's AI-led risk-off and Friday's NFP beat drove AUDUSD to a 0.6854 week low. Monday's Asia open retested that low and the pair has since built higher lows on a softer USD, reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.6889 with RSI(14) around 61. The pullback held at the 0.6879 london low, but the monday high at 0.6906 and EMA(50) near 0.6908 are capping the bounce, which sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-Friday drop.
Support: 0.6889, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6906, 0.6919, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6906 monday high and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919, with 0.7000 psych above
Failure to hold the 0.6879 london low breaks the Monday higher lows and exposes the 0.6854 week low
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Fed speakers from the first hour of NY today and Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC are near-term risk
AUDUSD gave up 170 pips from Thursday's 0.7024 week high. The selling started in the London-NY transition, as the AI-stock rout hit risk, and extended to a 0.6854 week low on Friday's NFP beat. Monday's Asia session retested that low and formed a double bottom; the rebound, helped by a softer USD on Iran-talk headlines, has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.6890 and held the London open dip at the 0.6879 london low. Price is now stalling at the 0.6905 monday high, just under EMA(50) near 0.6907, with RSI(14) back near 59 from sub-30 on Friday.
Support: 0.6890, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6905, 0.6942, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6905 monday high and EMA(50) exposes the 0.6942 breakdown shelf, aligned with the 50% fib of the week's drop
A clean hold above 0.6942 would leave the 0.7000 psych level as the next reference
Failure back below EMA(20) and the 0.6879 london low puts the 0.6854 week low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend
Fed speakers today, Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 0.6854, higher lows since Monday open.
Wednesday's push to 0.7024 unwound in a 170-pip slide from Thursday's NY session into Friday, as the AI-led risk-off and the 165K NFP beat drove AUDUSD to 0.6854. Monday's Asia session retested that low and rebounded, forming a double bottom with RSI(14) printing a higher low (~29 vs ~16). The bounce runs on a softer USD and China's tariff extension. London has extended to 0.6905, back above the ema20 and the 23.6% fib, and price is now pressing the ema50 near 0.6907.
Support: 0.6889, 0.68793, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6907, 0.69237, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6907 ema50 and Monday high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the 0.6924 prior low (Thursday's late low)
Acceptance through 0.6924 would bring the 0.7000 psych handle into view
Failure to hold the 0.6879 higher low breaks the Monday higher lows line and returns the 0.6854 double bottom to focus
Fed speakers today, Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; double low near 0.6854 with a London higher low.
Thursday's NY-open break out of the 0.7000–0.7024 range triggered a ~170-pip slide on the AI-led equity rout, extended by Friday's 165K NFP beat to 0.6854. Monday's Asia session rebound off a matching low formed a double low near 0.6854 on a softer USD. Price is now back above EMA(20) at 0.6887 with RSI(14) near 57, but the Monday high at 0.6902 and EMA(50) at 0.6907 are capping, and the London-open dip to 0.6879 held as a higher low.
Support: 0.6887, 0.6879, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6907, 0.6919
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Monday high at 0.6902 and the EMA(50) completes the double bottom and opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919
Failure to hold the London low at 0.6879 and EMA(20) shifts focus back to the 0.6854 double low
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for USD and could materially reset this structure
Lower highs from 0.7024 week high; twin lows at 0.6854 with a shallow rebound.
The haven-USD bid that set in from Thursday's London-NY transition pulled AUDUSD 170 pips off the 0.7024 week high to the 0.6854 week low after Friday's NFP beat, leaving price well below EMA(50). Monday's Asia session dipped to 0.6855, matching that low for a tentative double bottom, then rebounded on mild USD softness to the 0.6902 Monday high, just above the 23.6% level of the Thu-Fri drop fib. London has since eased price back onto EMA(20) near 0.6884, holding above the 0.6862 Friday close, with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 0.6884, 0.6862, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6919, 0.6939
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6902 Monday high exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and the 50% fib near 0.6939
Failure to hold EMA(20) and the 0.6862 Friday close reopens the 0.6854 week low; a break there voids the double bottom read
Fed speakers during NY hours today (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could move USD
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; tentative double bottom at 0.6854.
Thursday's NY-session break from the 0.7010–0.7024 plateau began the Thursday-Friday drop. The strong NFP whipsaw bar on Friday printed the week low at 0.6854, and Monday's open retested it before Asia lifted price to the 0.6902 Monday high. That forms a tentative double bottom, with price sitting on the 23.6% fib, just above EMA(20) at 0.6885 and below EMA(50) near 0.6909. RSI(14) has recovered to ~48 from oversold Friday readings, and the China CPI miss failed to dent the rebound along the Monday lows line, in line with the digest's read of USD softness and position-squaring.
Support: 0.6885, 0.6867, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6919, 0.6942
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6902 Monday high and EMA(50) near 0.6909 opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919, then the Friday high at 0.6942
Break of the Monday lows line and EMA(20) at 0.6885 returns focus to the weekly open at 0.6867
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low voids the double bottom and extends the downtrend sequence
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, plus Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Lower highs from 0.7024; double low at 0.6854, neckline 0.6893 under test.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 0.7024 top, with the 170-pip slide driven mainly in NY hours as the AI-led equity rout and Friday's NFP beat lifted the USD. The NFP-bar low at 0.6854 was matched by Monday's Asia-open dip, leaving a double low with the week open at 0.6867 just above. The Asia-session rebound, helped by China extending its tariff suspension despite the CPI miss, stalled at the 0.6902 Monday high just past the 23.6% retracement, and price now sits on the 0.6893 NFP high with EMA20 at 0.6885 beneath, EMA50 at 0.6910 above and RSI(14) back near 49 from deeply oversold Friday readings.
Support: 0.6885, 0.6867, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6902, 0.6910
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6902 monday high and ema50 at 0.6910 would confirm the double low and break the lower-high sequence
Slip back below ema20 and the week open at 0.6867 would undercut the Asia-session rebound
Failure to hold the 0.6854 double low resumes the lower-low sequence of the slide
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and today's Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off the lows · RSI 49 · price 0.68921
Double test of 0.6854 swing low, price back at the 0.6893 neckline.
The week's dominant leg was Thursday's NY-session sell-off, which extended through Friday's Asia and London sessions. It took AUDUSD about 170 pips from the 0.7024 week high to the 0.6854 swing low as an AI-led equity rout and Friday's NFP beat lifted the USD. A second test of 0.6854 in Monday's Asia session held despite the China CPI miss, and the rebound cleared 0.6893, Friday's post-NFP high and the double-bottom neckline. That puts price back above EMA(20) near 0.6884 but still under EMA(50) near 0.6910, with RSI(14) back to around 49. The bounce stalled at the Monday high of 0.6902, around the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop and below the 38.2% fib at 0.6919.
Support: 0.6884, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6910, 0.6919
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 0.6884 would turn the neckline retest into a failed break
Loss of the 0.6854 swing low negates the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the monday high and ema50 (0.6902–0.6910) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.6919
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak today (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the low · RSI 48 · price 0.68909
Lower highs intact below 0.6930; tentative double low at 0.6854.
Thursday's NY-session break below 0.7000 opened a 170-pip slide into Friday's post-NFP low at 0.6854. The spike to 0.6893 on the payrolls beat was rejected within the hour. Monday's Asian session retested that low at 0.6855 and bounced to the 0.6902 Asia high, reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.6884 to leave a tentative double low. Price is still capped by EMA(50) near 0.6912 and the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.6919, with RSI(14) back near 48 from oversold Friday, consistent with position-squaring after the shrugged-off China CPI miss.
Support: 0.6884, 0.6862, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6912, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6902 asia high and the 0.6912 ema50 would confirm the double low and expose the 38.2% fib at 0.6919
0.6930 friday shelf (Friday's Asian consolidation) is the area to watch for rejection on any extension of the bounce
Slipping back below ema20 at 0.6884 and the 0.6862 friday close puts the 0.6854 double low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce from lows · RSI 51 · price 0.68955
Lower highs from 0.7024 week high; double low at 0.6854.
AUDUSD unwound from Thursday's 0.7024 week high in a lower-high sequence. The late-week slide stalled at 0.6854 as the NFP beat and a risk-off equity move lifted the USD. In Monday's Asia session price held a retest of that level for a double low, then bounced to a 0.6902 session high despite the China CPI miss. That puts price back above EMA(20) at 0.6884 and on the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop, with EMA(50) near 0.6915 and the 38.2% at 0.6919 overhead. RSI(14) has recovered to about 51 from sub-40 readings.
Support: 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6902, 0.6915, 0.6942
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) at 0.6884 and the 0.6867 weekly open returns focus to the 0.6854 double low
Failure to hold the 0.6854 double low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6833 nine-month low
Clearance of the 0.6902 session high and EMA(50) near 0.6915 opens the path to the 0.6942 Friday high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers during Monday's NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7024; double low at 0.6854 now testing 0.6893 neckline.
The week's dominant move came in Thursday's NY session, when price broke from the 0.7024 high and slid about 170 pips to Friday's NFP-driven low at 0.6854. The 165K payrolls beat and AI-led risk-off drove the USD bid behind that slide. Sunday's open retested that area at 0.6855 to form a double low, and a softer USD in the Asia session has lifted price back above the week open and EMA20 (0.6882). Price is now pressing the 0.6893 NFP high, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the decline, while EMA50 at 0.6913 sits overhead.
Support: 0.6882, 0.6867, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6913, 0.6923
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 NFP high and 23.6% fib would complete the double bottom and expose EMA50 at 0.6913, then Thursday's NY low near 0.6923.
A drop back below the 0.6867 week open and the 0.6854 double low would resume the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6833 nine-month low.
China CPI later today could materially shift this read via AUD risk sentiment.
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the next major USD input after the NFP repricing.
Lower highs from 0.7024, tentative double bottom at 0.6854.
The selloff from Thursday's 0.7024 week high began in the NY session on AI-led risk-off and was extended by Friday's 165K NFP beat, cutting a steady lower-high sequence down to the 0.6854 week low. Friday's post-NFP low and Monday's Asia-open low both held at 0.6854, forming a tentative double bottom. The early-Asia bounce has pushed through the lower-highs line and back above EMA(20) near 0.6881, with RSI(14) recovering to ~48 from oversold Friday readings, and price is now testing the 0.6893 NFP high, which also marks the 23.6% fib.
Support: 0.6881, 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6893, 0.6917, 0.6942
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6893 NFP high confirms the double bottom and puts the 0.6917 EMA(50) and 0.6942 Fri high (near the 50% fib) in view
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.6881 returns price to the 0.6854 week low; a break there exposes the 0.6833 9m low
China CPI later Monday could shift the read via risk sentiment
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this structure
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 43 · price 0.68667
Lower highs from 0.7024; tight consolidation above week low.
AUDUSD gave back the whole midweek bounce to the 0.7024 week high. Thursday's NY-session drop through the tue low at 0.6954 started a roughly 150-pip slide on risk-off and safe-haven USD demand, and Friday's strong NFP extended it. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6854–0.6893 consolidation below the EMA(20) near 0.6878: the nfp high caps the top and the week low was retested in the Sunday open. RSI(14) has climbed back to the low 40s, so downside momentum is fading inside the base, but the lower-high line from 0.7024 still frames the move.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6878, 0.6893, 0.6954
What it said to watch
H1 close above the nfp high at 0.6893 breaks the consolidation and the lower-high line, exposing the 38.2% week high-low fib near 0.6919 and then the tue low at 0.6954
Failure to hold the 0.6854 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 0.6833 9m low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 0.6878 keeps the range capped below the mean
China CPI later Monday is the first AUD catalyst for this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read