Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October top.
AUD/USD has printed successive lower highs at 0.7068, 0.7024 and 0.6931. The hot US CPI beat knocked price off the 0.6931 lower high to a fresh swing low at 0.6843, with price holding below a falling ema20 (0.6907) and ema50 (0.6946). RSI made a higher low against that new price low, a bullish divergence from the oversold reading at the prior trough. ATR(14) holding around 24 pips shows a steady rather than accelerating decline, with the 9m low at 0.6833 just underneath.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6907, 0.6931, 0.6946
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6931 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the ema50 at 0.6946 in play
Failure to hold the 0.6843 swing low and 0.6833 9m low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6800 round number
Bounces stalling at the ema20 near 0.6907, which also sits on the lower-high line, keep the downtrend structure intact
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC: any 50bp December talk could materially shift this read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could revive RBA hike pricing and test the divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.70-0.7068 range broke.
The late-October 0.70-0.7068 range gave way in early November, and the structure has printed lower highs and lower lows since. The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) pushed AUD back through the prior low at 0.6854 to a fresh swing low at 0.6843, with price below both the ema20 (0.6912) and ema50 (0.6949) and ema20 under ema50. RSI at 30.7 is holding well above its sub-21 readings from the first leg, a bullish rsi divergence against the lower low, while ATR at 24.8 pips is expanding again.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68539, 0.69116, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6854 prior low would mark the CPI push as a false break
Close above the 0.6931 bounce high breaks the lower highs sequence; the ema20 at 0.6912 and the 38.2% breakdown fib sit just below it
Failure to hold the 0.6843 swing low extends the lower lows toward the 0.6800 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K)
Lower highs at 0.7068, 0.7024 and 0.6930 with a lower low at 0.6854; price back near the swing low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs at 0.7068, 0.7024 and 0.6930 since late October, with the post-NFP slide setting a swing low at 0.6854. The rebound stalled at the 0.6930 lower high, roughly 45% of the 0.7024–0.6854 drop on the fib, and the hot US October CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) knocked price back toward 0.6870. Price sits below both falling EMAs (ema20 0.6918, ema50 0.6953). RSI at 33.4 is off its earlier sub-30 extreme, and ATR has ticked back up to 23.6 pips on the CPI bar.
Support: 0.68539, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.69177, 0.69305, 0.69529
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6854 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and brings the 0.6833 7-month low into play
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.6918 and the 0.6930 lower high would break the lower-high line and the sequence
ema50 at 0.6953 caps any deeper rebound while it keeps sloping lower
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC; any echo of Waller's 50bp talk after the hot CPI could extend the USD move
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations on Thu could test the RBA-pause narrative behind the AUD sell-off
Lower high at 0.7025 then lower low at 0.6850; tight consolidation under ema20.
The swing sequence has turned lower: a lower high at 0.7025 below the 0.7070 peak, then a break to a 0.6850 swing low as the RBA's split-vote pause signal and a strong US payrolls print hit AUD. The bounce from that low stalled at the 0.6931 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the 0.7025-0.6850 leg. Price is now holding a 0.6910 range floor beneath a flattening ema20, with a declining ema50 at 0.6956 sitting near the 61.8% fib. RSI has climbed from oversold near 21 to 43.4, and ATR(14) has eased to 24.1 from 27.5, so the pair is compressing into US CPI.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.69227, 0.6931, 0.69562
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; consensus is core 0.2% m/m
An H4 close above the 0.6931 bounce high and the 50% fib near 0.6937 opens the ema50 at 0.6956
Failure below the 0.6910 range floor and the 0.6900 round number re-exposes the 0.6850 swing low
The lower highs trendline from 0.7070 caps any extended recovery
Lower highs from 0.7070 and 0.7024, lower low at 0.6850; bounce capped at 0.6930.
Lower-high structure from the 0.7070 late-October peak drove the slide to the 0.6850 swing low, accelerated by the RBA's split-vote pause signal and the 165K NFP beat. The bounce has retraced past the 38.2% fib and now sits just above a flattening ema20, but four consecutive H4 highs have stalled at the 0.6930 range cap. EMA20 remains below EMA50 after the bearish ema cross, RSI has recovered from sub-21 to 47, and ATR is easing from 27.5 to 24.4 pips into US CPI.
Support: 0.69238, 0.6910, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6958, 0.70245
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; the AUD short base makes a soft print the larger-move scenario
H4 close above the 0.6930 range cap opens the 50% fib at 0.6937 and the ema50 / 61.8% confluence near 0.6958
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.6910 pullback low breaks the recovery lows line and exposes the 0.6850 swing low
Only a move above the 0.7024 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 0.7068; range break lower, rebound from 0.6854 swing low.
AUDUSD broke out of the multi-week 0.7010–0.7065 range and printed a lower high at 0.7024 before the NFP-driven USD bid took it to a 0.6854 swing low, with EMA20 now below EMA50. The bounce since, helped by the oil-led USD dip, has retraced to the 38.2% fib at 0.6919 and is stalling at EMA20 near 0.6926, with the 50% fib at 0.6939 and the 0.6954 prior low overhead. ATR(14) has eased to about 25 pips from the breakdown expansion, so the rebound is running on compressed ranges.
Support: 0.6919, 0.6900, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.6954, 0.7024
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close above the 0.6954 prior low would turn the move from a 38.2% fib retracement into a deeper repair of the breakdown
Lower-high line from 0.7068 now sits near 0.7000. A move into it would test the downtrend structure
Failure back through the 0.6900 round number puts the 0.6854 swing low back in focus, with the rebound line giving way first