22:04 UTC
Downtrend, volatility expanding · RSI 36 · price 0.6847
Lower highs and lower lows since early-September peak; October low broken.
Downtrend since the 0.7237 early-September peak, with a lower high at 0.7068 in late October and price below both EMA(20) at 0.6959 and a falling EMA(50) at 0.7001. The strong 165K NFP print took out the October low at 0.6894. Monday's oil-driven bounce stalled at 0.6930, and Tuesday's hot US CPI pushed AUD to a 0.6843 swing low as Fed/RBA divergence widens. ATR has expanded to 53.5 pips over the past week, and RSI at 35.5 is weak but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6894, 0.6959, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.6843 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6800 round number
- Recovery and daily close back above the 0.6894 october low would turn the break into a false break and bring ema20 at 0.6959 into focus
- 38.2% of the Sept-Nov decline near 0.6994 sits alongside EMA(50) at 0.7001, a confluence capping any rebound
- Close above the 0.7068 lower high and the lower-high line would break the downtrend structure
- Fed speakers Thursday and US PPI Friday could reprice December hike odds; RBA Bullock speech and minutes on Nov 17 could also materially shift this read