Lower high at 0.6885, tight base on the 0.6843 week low.
Hot US CPI flipped the week in Tuesday's NY session, erasing Monday's rally from the weekly open to 0.6931, and Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at a lower high of 0.6885, near the 50% of the CPI leg fib. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6859) and ema50 (0.6875). RSI(14) is at 33 after touching 29.5 on Wednesday's NY retest of the 0.6843 week low. ATR has compressed to 7.1 pips as a tight base forms just above that level, with the 7m low at 0.6833 underneath.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68587, 0.68664, 0.6885
What it said to watch
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.6833 7m low
Reclaim of ema20 (0.6859) and the weekly open (0.6866) would break the post-CPI drift
Break above the 0.6885 lower high invalidates the lower-highs trendline
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fed speakers add event risk later in the day
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 34 · price 0.68487
Lower highs since CPI; week low retested.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print (core 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% f/c) erased Monday's rally to the 0.6930 week high, with the NY session driving price to a 0.6843 week low. The Asia bounce to the 0.6885 rebound high faded into a sequence of lower highs through London. Wednesday's NY session retested the week low at 0.6843. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6862) and ema50 (0.6878), with RSI(14) at 33.7, just above oversold, and ATR compressing to 8 pips as the decline slows.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68624, 0.6878, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low exposes the 0.6833 7-month low
Close back above ema20 at 0.6862 and the lower-highs line would interrupt the descending sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6885 rebound high, just above ema50, would turn the twin lows into a base
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (~5h) could shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC carry USD risk
Lower highs since Wednesday's Asia bounce; second test of 0.6843 low.
Monday's oil-driven rally to the 0.6930 week high fully unwound after Tuesday's hot US CPI beat knocked the pair through 0.6900 in the first hour of NY and down to a 0.6843 week low. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.6885 Asia high, near the 50% fib of the Monday-high leg, and a lower-high trendline has since guided price back to retest the week low during NY hours, below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) touched 29.5 on the retest before lifting to 33.4, while ATR has compressed from 10.7 to 8.4 pips.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68638, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 0.6800 round number as the next reference
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.6864 and the lower-high trendline would ease the downtrend read; the 0.6885 Asia high is the next cap
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 GMT Thursday (~6h, Asia session) could materially shift this read
0.6900 psych pivot overhead, with US jobless claims and Fed speakers in Thursday's NY session as further USD risk
Lower highs since Wednesday Asia high; retest of week low.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print broke 0.6900 during NY hours and erased Monday's oil-driven rally to the 0.6930 week high. Wednesday's Asia high at 0.6885 has since given way to a run of lower highs. The London-NY slide revisited Tuesday's 0.6843 week low, where demand has now stepped in twice, while price holds below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6865 and EMA(50) at 0.6880. RSI(14) dipped to 29.5 before recovering to 35, and ATR compressing to 8.7 pips points to a slowing grind lower rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68654, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower low and exposes SocGen support at 0.6833
Recovery above ema20 (0.6865) and the 0.6866 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence
A move back through the 0.6885 Asia high would put the 0.6900 psych pivot back in play
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (in ~7h) could shift this read
US jobless claims and Fedspeak from Thu 13:30 UTC are the next USD test
Lower highs since Monday's 0.6930 peak; week low retested.
Hot US core CPI reversed Monday's rally to 0.6930. The first NY hour on Tuesday shed about 35 pips, and the slide ran to a 0.6843 week low. Since then price has printed lower highs: Wednesday's Asian-session bounce stalled at the 0.6885 Asia high, and a NY grind took price back to the week low within a pip. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) dipped to 29.5 before recovering to 34.7, ATR has compressed from 11 to 9 pips, and the old Friday low at 0.6854 now sits overhead.
Support: 0.6843
Resistance: 0.6854, 0.68669, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 0.6833 area flagged in the digest
Reclaiming the 0.6854 friday low and then the EMA(20) near 0.6867 (close to the 0.6866 weekly open) would break the lower-high sequence
A move through the 0.6885 asia high and the 38.2% fib near 0.6877 would neutralise the CPI leg
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could jolt the Asian session
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak Thu from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's Asia bounce, price back at Tuesday's post-CPI low.
Monday's rally from the 0.6866 weekly open topped near 0.6930 and reversed in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI print, sliding to a 0.6843 week low. Wednesday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 0.6885, just under the 50% level of the CPI drop fib. London and NY hours then carved a sequence of lower highs back to the week low, with price below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) at 29.5 is oversold and ATR has compressed to 9.1 pips, so the retest is unfolding as a grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 0.68432, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68686, 0.6885, 0.6900
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower-low and puts next support at 0.6833 in view
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.6869 and a break of the lower highs trendline would interrupt the sequence
Recovery through the 0.6885 bounce high and the 0.6900 round number would undo the post-CPI structure
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (~9h) could shift this read during the Asia session
Thursday NY session jobless claims and a run of Fed speakers keep the USD side active
Post-CPI bounce capped at 0.6885, lower highs grinding back toward Tuesday's low.
Tuesday's London-session high at 0.6930 gave way after the hot US CPI print and Waller's 50bp talk. The selloff ran to the 0.6843 week low into NY hours, and the bounce stalled at 0.6885 in the Asia session, just shy of the 50% fib of the CPI leg and near EMA(50). Since then a run of lower highs has walked price back under the weekly open and EMA(20) to a fresh day low near 0.6850. RSI(14) slipped from 49 to 33.5 while ATR compressed from 12 to 9 pips, so the drift lower is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.68495, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68664, 0.68709, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower low beyond Tuesday's CPI extreme
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the weekly open at 0.6866–0.6871 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Close above the 0.6885 bounce high negates the lower-high sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and Thursday Fedspeak on 50bp odds feed into the next NY session
Lower highs since Asia 0.6885 high after post-CPI breakdown.
The Monday–Tuesday double top near 0.6930 gave way in Tuesday's NY session on the hot US core CPI print, with the drop running to the 0.6843 cpi low. The Asia bounce stalled at the 0.6885 asia high, just shy of the 50% level on the cpi drop fib and the EMA(50) at 0.6886. Since the London open, lower highs have formed below the ema20 at 0.6873 and price has slipped back under the weekly open at 0.6866, with RSI(14) rolling from 49 to 37 and ATR compressing to 8.7 pips as the session low at 0.6858 comes under test.
Support: 0.6858, 0.6843
Resistance: 0.6866, 0.6873, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6885 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reclaims the EMA(50)
Failure to hold the 0.6858 session low exposes the 0.6843 cpi low; a break there marks a fresh lower low for the week
Reclaim of the weekly open at 0.6866 and the ema20 at 0.6873 would neutralise the intraday fade
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could shift the read, followed by US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, drifting lower on compressed range · RSI 37 · price 0.68623
Monday's oil-driven rally to a 0.6930 week high was fully reversed on Tuesday. A London-session slide after Waller's comments ran through 0.6900 on the hot US CPI print and reached a 0.6843 week low in the NY session. The Asia-session bounce stalled at the 0.6885 bounce high, just under the 50% retracement of the CPI leg and EMA(50), and lower highs since have pushed price back below EMA(20) at 0.6874 and the 0.6866 weekly open, with RSI(14) at 37 after an oversold 26 and ATR(14) compressing from 13 to 9 pips.
Support: 0.68605, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68664, 0.68739, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6860 day low exposes the 0.6843 week low and an extension of the CPI leg
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 0.6874 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the drift; 0.6885 bounce high sits above
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (no forecast) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.6885 after CPI breakdown, compressing above week low.
Monday's squeeze stalled at the 0.6930 week high, and Tuesday's London open retest at 0.69298 formed a double top. The hot US CPI print in the NY session then drove an 86-pip slide to the 0.6843 week low, with RSI(14) dipping to 25.9. The bounce stalled at today's 0.6885 asia high, near the 50% fib of that drop and the EMA(50) at 0.68876. Price has since slipped back below a flattening EMA(20) at 0.68753, with RSI(14) easing from 49 to 41.9 and ATR compressing from 12.7 to 8.8 pips while London defends the 0.6861 day low.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68753, 0.6885, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6861 day low exposes the 0.6843 week low and breaks the higher-low line from the CPI low
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 0.6885 asia high and EMA(50) would break the lower-high sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC (no consensus) could materially shift this read
Thursday Fedspeak and any 50bp December chatter can extend USD strength through the week low
Lower high at 0.6885 after Tuesday's CPI selloff; pressing London session low.
Monday's squeeze to the 0.6930 week high was fully unwound on Tuesday. Waller in London hours started the slide, and the hot US CPI print in the NY session drove it to a 0.6843 week low. The Asia rebound stalled at 0.6885, near the 50% retracement of that drop and just under EMA(50) at 0.6888, leaving a second lower high. Price has since slipped back below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6876 to test the London session low at 0.6861, with RSI(14) back to 38 after peaking at 49 and ATR compressing from 12.7 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 0.68612, 0.68545, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.6876, 0.6885, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6885 asia high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 0.6876 would neutralise the latest rejection
Loss of the 0.6861 session low exposes the 0.6854 monday low and then the 0.6843 week low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower high at 0.6885 under EMA(50), tight range above weekly open.
Monday's rally from near the Friday low to the 0.6930 week high was fully erased in the NY session on Tuesday after the hot US CPI beat, with price sliding to a 0.6843 week low as RSI(14) dropped to 25.9. The Asia bounce met rejection at the 0.6885 Asia high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the CPI drop and just under EMA(50) at 0.6889, setting up a lower high. Since the London open price has sat below EMA(20) at 0.6877, with RSI fading to 43 and ATR compressing to 8.7 pips, while the weekly open at 0.6866 holds underneath.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68772, 0.6885, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 0.6877 and then the 0.6885 asia high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 0.6900 psych pivot
Failure to hold the 0.6866 weekly open exposes the friday low at 0.6854 and the 0.6843 week low
A break below the 0.6843 week low would confirm a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could shift this read
Thursday Fedspeak on 25bp vs 50bp could shift this read; Monday's week high at 0.6930 marks the top of the lower-highs line
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce fading · RSI 42 · price 0.68697
Lower high at 0.6885 under Monday's 0.6930 peak after a new week low.
Monday's short-covering rally to 0.6930 was fully unwound in Tuesday's NY session. The hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp remarks drove a 50-pip hourly drop and a week low at 0.6843, and EMA(20) crossed below EMA(50) on the move. Wednesday's Asia session bounce stalled at the 0.6885 Asia high, just shy of the 50% retracement of that CPI leg. Price has slipped back below EMA(20) at 0.6878 and EMA(50) at 0.6890. RSI(14) recovered from oversold 26 to 49 and is now fading at 42, while ATR compresses to 8.8 pips, pointing to a tightening, lower-high structure above the 0.6854 Friday low.
Support: 0.6854, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68778, 0.6885, 0.68901
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6885 Asia high and ema50 at 0.6890 breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the downtrend read
Loss of the 0.6854 Friday low exposes the 0.6843 week low; a close below it confirms a lower low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate Thu could reprice 50bp Fed odds and move this read
Lower high at 0.6884 under EMAs; holding above weekly open.
Tuesday's hot US CPI print broke the 0.6910–0.6930 range in the NY session and erased Monday's oil-led rally, with the drop reaching a week low at 0.6843. Today's Asia session rebound stalled at the 0.6884 asia high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's drop. Price now sits below a flattening ema20 at 0.6879 and a falling ema50 at 0.6891, with RSI(14) at 44 after recovering from oversold. ATR has compressed to 8.8 pips while the pair holds just above the weekly open at 0.6866.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68545, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68785, 0.6884, 0.68908
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6884 asia high and ema50 at 0.6891 would break the lower-high sequence and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.6866 exposes the monday low at 0.6855, then the week low at 0.6843
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, followed by Fedspeak Thu and US PPI Fri, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; post-CPI consolidation under ema20.
The hot US CPI print broke Tuesday's 0.6910–0.6930 range at the NY open. The pair slid 87 pips from Monday's 0.6930 high to a 0.6843 week low, extending the lower-high sequence from last Thursday's 0.7024 top. Since the low, price has retraced to around the 38.2% fib, holding above the weekly open at 0.6866 but capped by the Asia high at 0.6884 and still below ema20 (0.6879) and ema50 (0.6892). RSI(14) has climbed from 25.9 to 44.9 and ATR has compressed from 12.7 to 9.1 pips, which reads as consolidation within the downtrend.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68789, 0.6884, 0.68915
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 (0.6879) and the Asia high (0.6884) would reclaim the 50% fib zone and bring ema50 near 0.6892 into play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.6866 exposes Friday's low at 0.6854 and the 0.6843 week low
A break below the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) could shift this read, with US jobless claims and the Fedspeak cluster later Thursday
Lower high at 0.6885 after CPI range break; ema50 capping.
The week opened at 0.6866, and Monday's rally to 0.6931 unwound in Tuesday's NY session. The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.6910-0.6930 range and drove price to a 0.6843 week low, with RSI(14) dipping to 25.9. The Asia bounce has retraced just under half of the CPI drop and stalled at the 0.6885 asia high, below the falling ema50 at 0.6892. Price sits marginally under a flattening ema20 at 0.6879, RSI has recovered to 46.2 and ATR has compressed to 9.4 pips from 12.7.
Support: 0.68621, 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68793, 0.6885, 0.68922
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6885 asia high and the ema50 at 0.6892 shifts the bounce from corrective toward a test of 0.6900
Failure to hold the 0.6862 prior close exposes the 0.6854 friday low and the 0.6843 week low
A break below the week low confirms a lower-low extension of the CPI leg
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and Thursday's Fed speakers on 50bp December odds could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.6930 broken; Asia bounce testing ema20 below ema50.
Monday's rebound and Tuesday's London high both capped near 0.6930, forming a double top. Hot US CPI then drove a NY-session slide from 0.6905 to a week low at 0.6843. The Asia session bounce has retraced to an Asia high of 0.6884, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the CPI leg, and price is now retesting EMA(20) at 0.6880 from below with EMA(50) at 0.6893 overhead. RSI(14) has recovered from 25.9 to 45.8 while ATR compresses to 9.8 pips.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68795, 0.6884, 0.68928
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6884 Asia high and EMA(50) at 0.6893 would take price past the 50% fib and weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6866 weekly open exposes Friday's low at 0.6854, and a break of the 0.6843 week low confirms a lower-low
Asia higher lows from 0.6843 define the current bounce; a break of that line resumes the CPI-leg structure
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) and Thursday US claims/Fedspeak could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling at ema20 · RSI 46 · price 0.68774
Lower low after CPI break; corrective bounce testing EMAs from below.
Monday's oil- and Iran-driven bounce stalled at 0.6930, forming a double top with Tuesday's London high. The hot US CPI print then broke it during NY hours to a week low of 0.6843. The Asia-session rebound has retraced to just under the 50% level of the CPI drop fib at 0.6885 and is now holding just below the ema20 (0.6880), with the ema50 at 0.6893 overhead. RSI(14) has recovered to 45.9 from an oversold 25.9.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68797, 0.68934, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 at 0.6893 and the 0.6900 pivot would put the 0.6930 double top back in focus
A break of the rebound lows trendline and the weekly open at 0.6866 would expose the friday low at 0.6854 and the week low at 0.6843
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC and Thursday's US claims and Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce under way · RSI 49 · price 0.68839
Lower low after CPI break, rebound testing 50% of week's drop.
Tuesday's hot US core CPI print reversed Monday's oil-driven rally, taking AUDUSD from the 0.6930 week high through the 0.6900 round number to a 0.6843 CPI low during NY hours. A grinding recovery into the Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.6880, with RSI(14) climbing from 25.9 to 49.2 and ATR easing to 10.2 pips. Price now sits just below EMA(50) at 0.6894 and near the 50% fib of the week's drop, with the recovery line from the CPI low intact.
Support: 0.6880, 0.68545, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68941, 0.6900, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 and the 0.6900 round number opens a deeper retrace toward the 0.6930 week high
Loss of the ema20 and the recovery line exposes the 0.6855 monday low, then the 0.6843 cpi low
Rejection from the 50% fib near 0.6887 would keep the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, then US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, could shift this read
Monday's rally from the 0.6866 weekly open to 0.6930 was fully reversed on Tuesday. Waller's 50bp talk in the London session and the hot US CPI at NY open broke the 0.6913–0.6930 range and printed a week low at 0.6843. The Asia session bounce has carved higher lows along a rebound trendline, with RSI(14) recovering from 25.9 to 41.9 and ATR easing to 10 pips, but price is still capped below a falling ema20 at 0.6880 and ema50 at 0.6895, with the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg at 0.6877.
Support: 0.68664, 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68797, 0.68945, 0.6900
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 / 38.2% fib near 0.6880 opens the ema50 at 0.6895 and the 0.6900 pivot
Close back below the weekly open at 0.6866 and the rebound trendline returns focus to the 0.6843 week low
A break of the week low exposes the 0.6833 9m low cited in the digest
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (no consensus) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu, then PPI Fri, keep 50bp December pricing live
Lower high at 0.6930, fresh low at 0.6843 after CPI.
Monday's short-covering rebound off the Friday low stalled at 0.6930 twice, forming a double top below Thursday's 0.7024 high. Tuesday's hot US CPI in the NY session broke the neckline near 0.6905 and drove price to a fresh week low at 0.6843, the CPI low. RSI(14) bottomed at 25.9 and has recovered to 39.8 as price retraced toward the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, but price stays below the ema20 at 0.6881 and the ema50 at 0.6895, both sloping lower.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68805, 0.68954, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6881, which also clears the 38.2% fib, would open the ema50 near 0.6895
Failure to hold the Friday low at 0.6854 exposes the CPI low at 0.6843 and a lower-low extension
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.6930 double top would negate the downtrend read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT, plus US claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read