AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 12 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a tight range · RSI 46 · price 0.68056
10-pip range 0.6799–0.6809 below the London-NY selloff's lower highs.
The London-NY selloff from 0.6836 swept the 0.6800 psych level to a 0.67975 day low as USD held near 19-month highs on Fed hike repricing. Since the NY afternoon AUDUSD has been pinned in a 0.6799–0.6809 range, with ATR(14) compressing from 5.0 to 3.1 pips, RSI(14) neutral at 46.2 and price just under a flat ema20 (0.68058) and a falling ema50 (0.68115).
Support: 0.68029, 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68088, 0.68115, 0.68141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6809 range top and the ema50 at 0.68115 breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.6814 bounce high
Failure to hold the 0.6803 range floor and the 0.6800 psych level puts the 0.67975 day low back in play
Reaction to Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) into the Asia session could end the compression
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight range · RSI 46 · price 0.6806
8h range 0.6799–0.6809 above session low, lower highs intact.
Fed-driven USD strength pushed the NY session through 0.6800 to a 0.6798 session low before the round number was reclaimed. Since then price has held a tight 0.6799–0.6809 range with ATR(14) compressed from 5.1 to 3.2 pips. It sits just under the ema20, below the ema50 at 0.6812, and RSI(14) reads 45.9; the 0.6814 bounce high stalled between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY selloff fib.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68088, 0.68117, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaking now (23:30 UTC); hike-pace comments could break the compressed range
M15 close below the 0.6798 session low extends the lower-low chain beneath the round number
Close above the 0.6809 range top and the ema50 at 0.6812 puts the 0.6814 bounce high back in play
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility event for the pair
Tight 0.6799–0.6809 range below NY bounce high and lower-high trendline.
The NY session extended the London slide to a 0.67975 NY low as the hot-CPI USD bid persisted. The bounce high at 0.68141 capped the recovery, and price has been boxed in a 0.6799 range low to 0.6809 range high since 19:15 UTC. ATR has compressed from 5.1 to 3.3 pips, and price sits just under ema20 and below a falling ema50 at 0.6812, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.6799, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68088, 0.6812, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaks in ~14 min (23:30 UTC); 50bp chatter could break the late-session range
M15 close above the 0.6809 range high and the lower-high trendline opens ema50 at 0.6812 and the 0.68141 bounce high
Acceptance below the 0.6799 range low and 0.67975 NY low confirms a fresh lower-low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility point
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY low · RSI 44 · price 0.68071
Tight 0.6799–0.6809 range below both EMAs.
NY hours broke below the 0.6808 ten-month low to a 0.6798 session low as hawkish Fed repricing kept the USD bid. Price has since held a 0.6799–0.6809 range below both EMAs, with ATR(14) down to 3.3 pips and the ema50 at 0.6812 sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 0.6836–0.6798 drop.
Support: 0.6803, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6809, 0.68122, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 28 min out, in thin Asia-open liquidity, could break the range
A close above the 0.6809 range top brings the ema50 / 38.2% fib at 0.6812 and the 0.6814 bounce high into play
Loss of the 0.6803 range floor puts the 0.6798 session low back in focus; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a tight base · RSI 38 · price 0.6803
Lower highs after the NY selloff; post-NY range 0.6800–0.6809.
Dollar strength after the hot CPI repricing broke the London low during NY hours and pushed the pair to a 0.67975 session low, beneath the 0.6808 ten-month low. The bounce failed at a 0.6814 swing high near the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff. Price has since compressed between the 0.6800 round number and a 0.6809 range top, holding below the ema20 at 0.6806 with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR down to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6806, 0.68086, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 44 minutes away, could break the thin post-NY range
M15 close below the 0.67975 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.6809 range top and the ema20 tests the lower highs line and the 0.6814 swing high
Rising ATR from 3.1 pips would mark the end of the post-NY compression
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.68035
Lower highs above a 0.6800–0.6809 base.
AUD/USD broke under the London low near 0.6814 during NY hours on the hawkish Fed repricing and set a session low at 0.67975. The bounce high at 0.68141 capped the recovery. Price has since compressed in a 0.6800–0.6809 range below a flattening ema20 at 0.68063, with RSI(14) at 39.2 and ATR down to 3.3 pips in a thin late-NY tape.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68063, 0.68086, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, early in the Asia session, could break the late-NY compression
M15 close above the 0.68086 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.68141 bounce high in play
Failure to hold the 0.67975 session low extends the downtrend below 0.6800
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in tight post-NY range · RSI 46 · price 0.68072
Lower highs from London and NY; quiet consolidation above the NY swing low.
London broke below the Asian range low and NY extended the slide to the 0.67975 swing low as the hot-CPI Fed repricing kept USD bid. The 0.68141 bounce high stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and price has since compressed in a 0.68015 range low to 0.68081 late high band after NY close. Price is pinned just above ema20 at 0.68066 and below ema50 at 0.68133, with RSI(14) recovering to 46.4 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.68066, 0.68015, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68081, 0.68133, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (in ~74 min) could break the compressed range in either direction
M15 close above the 0.68141 bounce high, clearing ema50, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.68015 range low puts the 0.67975 swing low and the 0.6800 handle back in play
Close back below ema20 at 0.68066 returns price to the lower half of the range
22:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, basing late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.68081
Double bottom near 0.6798 with a tight 0.6800–0.6809 range under the ema50.
NY session extended the Fed-repricing USD bid, slicing through the London low at 0.6814 to a session low at 0.67975. A retest at the 0.6799 swing low around 19:00 UTC formed a double bottom. After London close price has compressed into a 0.6800–0.6809 range with ATR(14) shrinking from 6 to 3.3 pips; RSI(14) has recovered to 50 from 34. Price is pressing the range top, just above the ema20 at 0.68066 and below the ema50 at 0.68136.
Support: 0.68066, 0.6799, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6809, 0.6814, 0.68289
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6809 range top brings the bounce high and ema50 cluster at 0.6814 into play
Acceptance above 0.6814 opens the ny open high at 0.6829, near the 50% fib of the London-NY drop
Failure below the 0.6799 swing low and the 0.67975 session low voids the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~87 min) could break the late-NY compression
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.68064
USD strength on the Fed-hike repricing drove a NY-session drop from the 0.6829 NY high to a 0.67975 session low. The bounce stalled near 0.6814, around the 50% fib of the NY selloff and just above the falling ema50 at 0.68138. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6800–0.6807 box, with the round number holding and the range top capping, sitting fractionally under ema20 as ATR(14) shrank from 6.1 to 3.4 pips and RSI(14) lifted to 45.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68068, 0.68138, 0.68292
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.6807 range top puts the ema50 / 0.6814 bounce high in play
Failure to hold the 0.6800 round number exposes the 0.67975 session low; a break there resumes the NY selloff
Reclaim of 0.6829 NY high needed to negate the session downtrend
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.68057
Lower highs capping a tight 0.6799–0.6806 base.
AUD/USD broke the 0.6808 10m low during NY hours as the post-CPI Fed-hike repricing kept the USD bid. It printed a 0.67975 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.68141 bounce high near the 38.2% of the London-NY selloff, with ema50 at the same level. Since then a lower-highs sequence has pinned price just under the ema20 at 0.68065, while ATR(14) compresses to 3.5 pips and RSI(14) recovers to 43.9.
Support: 0.6799, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68065, 0.6808, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the post-NY lull
M15 close below the 0.6799 swing low and the 0.67975 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.6808 10m low breaks the lower-highs line
Close above the 0.68141 bounce high / ema50 invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs since 10:45 UTC; tight base above 0.6800.
The hot-CPI, hawkish-Fed slide carried through London and NY. Price broke below the Asian range and printed a 0.67975 session low at 15:15 UTC, below the 0.6800 round number. Since then it has sat in a narrow 0.68015–0.68065 range after NY close, capped by the ema20 and below the 23.6% of the selloff fib, with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.68015, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68065, 0.68141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.68065 breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.68141 bounce high, near the ema50 at 0.68144, is next
Loss of the 0.68015 range low puts the 0.67975 session low and the 0.6800 round number back in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, early in the Asia session, could materially shift this read
ATR(14) is down from 6.5 to 3.6 pips; a break of the range shows whether volatility returns
Lower highs from London; tight coil above near-equal NY lows.
AUD slid through the NY session on a firm USD after the hot-CPI Fed repricing, printing a ny low at 0.67975 and a near-equal retest at 0.6799 around 19:00 UTC. The 16:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 0.68141 lower high, near the 38.2% of the London-high-to-NY-low fib. Price is now coiling just above the 0.6800 round number, under the ema20 (0.68067), with ATR compressed to 3.8 pips and RSI(14) recovering from 34 to 41.5.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68067, 0.68141, 0.68292
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.68141 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.68292 ny high in view
Acceptance below the 0.67975 ny low extends the downtrend
A break of the ema20 at 0.68067 is the first sign the coil is resolving higher
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could end the low-ATR coil if he endorses 50bp or back-to-back hikes
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.68055
Lower highs from 0.6814 bounce; tight 0.6799–0.6808 base above session low.
The NY session broke the 0.6817–0.6829 range on the hawkish-Fed USD bid and printed a session low at 0.67975. The bounce high at 0.6814 has capped since, under a lower-highs line, and price is coiling just under the ema20 at 0.6807 with the ema50 overhead at 0.6815. The 0.6799 retest held after London close, RSI(14) has recovered from 33.7 to 41, and ATR has compressed to 4 pips from 6.6.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68069, 0.68141, 0.68152
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
M15 close below the 0.67975 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Close above the ema20 and the lower-highs line puts the 0.6814 bounce high and the ema50 in play
Clearing 0.6815 reaches the 0.6823 50% of the NY selloff fib
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.68041
Lower highs from London high; tight consolidation just above session low.
NY session broke the 0.6808 ten-month low as hot-CPI Fed hike repricing kept USD bid, printing a session low at 0.67975. The 0.6814 bounce high stalled near the 38.2% fib of the drop, extending the lower highs from the 0.6836 London high. Late NY is compressing just above 0.6800 psych and below the ema20 at 0.6807, ATR(14) easing to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6807, 0.68141, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67975 session low resumes the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6807 and the 0.6808 ten-month low weakens the breakdown read
Close above the 0.6814 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; any 50bp hike talk adds USD pressure
Lower highs since London; late-NY coil just above the session low.
London broke below the asian low at 0.6829, and the NY sell-off extended to a 0.67975 session low as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD firm. The bounce high at 0.68141 stalled near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop. Late NY is coiling in a 0.6799–0.6808 band under a falling ema20 at 0.68073, with RSI(14) back to 38.8 from 26.9 and ATR(14) compressed to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.67975, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68073, 0.68141, 0.68286
What it said to watch
Close above the ema20 at 0.68073 and the lower highs line breaks the late-NY coil
Close back above the 0.68141 bounce high negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.67975 session low and the 0.6800 round number extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; any 50bp talk is the key risk
Fed-RBA divergence kept AUD heavy through NY, breaking the 0.6814 London low and the 0.6808 ten-month low to a 0.67975 NY low. The 0.6814 bounce high stalled at the 38.2% fib, and late NY has since compressed below the descending line and ema20, with ATR down to 4.4 pips and lower highs pressing toward the 0.6799 late low.
Support: 0.6799, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68076, 0.68141, 0.68165
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6799 late low and 0.67975 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the descending line and ema20 near 0.6808 breaks the late-session compression; bounce high 0.6814 and ema50 0.6817 sit above
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.68029
Lower highs compressing above 0.6800 after NY low.
AUD broke below the 0.6808 ten-month low during NY hours to a 0.67975 NY low as hot-CPI Fed hike pricing kept USD bid. The low held on a 0.6799 retest, and price is coiling under the ema20 at 0.6808 with lower highs from the 0.68141 bounce high. RSI(14) is at 33.9, up from a sub-26 low, and ATR is compressing to 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6808, 0.68141, 0.6817
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.67975 ny low resumes the downtrend leg below 0.6800
M15 close above 0.6808 (ema20 / ten-month low) breaks the lower-highs line
Reclaiming the 0.68141 bounce high exposes the ema50 at 0.6817
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; late NY retesting the session low.
Hawkish Fedspeak and a firm USD drove the NY drop from 0.6829 through the 0.6808 ten-month low to a session low at 0.67975. The bounce stalled at the 0.6814 swing high, and lower highs have since kept price below the ema20 at 0.68086. Late in the NY session price is retesting the low around the 0.6800 round number, with RSI at 34 against 26 at the first low and ATR compressing to 4.8 pips, so a potential double bottom is forming inside the downtrend.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68086, 0.68141, 0.68176
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67975 session low confirms a lower low and voids the double bottom read
Close above the 0.6814 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the ema50 at 0.68176 in view
Lower-highs trendline and the ema20 have capped every bounce since 16:00 UTC
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.68024
Lower highs capped by ema20 above the 0.67975 session low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6829. NY extended the slide to a 0.67975 session low as hawkish Fedspeak kept the USD bid. After London close, the 0.6814 bounce high gave way to lower highs capped at the ema20. Price is pinned near the 0.6800 round number, RSI(14) at 33.7 is not yet oversold and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68092, 0.68141, 0.68182
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.67975 session low and 0.6800 round number extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6809 breaks the lower highs trendline
Reclaiming the 0.6814 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.6818 would undo the intraday downtrend structure
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, in about 4h, could shift this read during the Asia session
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.68023
Lower highs pressing 0.6800 after Asian range broke lower.
London broke below the 0.6829–0.6851 Asian range, and the NY leg printed a 0.6798 day low as the hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. Since the 16:00 UTC bounce high at 0.6814, a chain of lower highs has pressed price back to the 0.6800 psych level, below the ema20 at 0.6810 and the ema50 at 0.6819. RSI(14) sits at 33.8, soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5 pips after the NY expansion.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68099, 0.68141, 0.68189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6798 day low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.6800 psych level
Close above the lower highs trendline and the ema20 at 0.6810 breaks the descending grind; the 0.6814 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.6819 sit above
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 0.68036
Lower highs since 16:00 UTC bounce, sitting just above NY low.
NY session broke the London low at 0.6814 and set a 0.6798 NY low as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. The bounce stalled at the 0.6814 bounce high, and lower highs since then have pressed price toward the 0.6803 drift low. Price is below the ema20 and ema50, RSI sits at 35 after the sub-30 dip, and ATR is easing to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.68028, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68106, 0.68141, 0.68195
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6798 NY low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.6814 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and the consolidation read
ema20 at 0.68106 is first overhead; ema50 at 0.68195 caps the selloff retracement
Fed's Schmid now, Monthly Budget Statement in 14m and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Tight consolidation under ema20 after NY breakdown.
A firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing drove the NY-session drop from 0.6829 to a 0.6798 session low. The bounce stalled near half the drop at the 0.6814 bounce high, and price has since compressed in a 0.6803–0.6810 band below a falling ema20 and ema50, with lower highs capping it. RSI(14) has recovered from 25.8 to 37 and ATR has eased to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.68032, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68113, 0.68141, 0.68202
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6814 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the ema50 at 0.6820
Loss of the 0.6803 range low reopens the 0.6798 session low and the 0.6800 psych area
Fed's Schmid (now), the Monthly Budget Statement in ~30m and Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY flush · RSI 36 · price 0.6805
Lower highs compressing above NY low, below both EMAs.
Hawkish Fed repricing after the hot US CPI pushed the pair through the 0.6808 ten-month low in the NY session to a 0.67975 NY low, and the bounce stalled at 0.6814, the old London low and the 38.2% fib of the selloff. Since then it has held a tight 0.6803–0.6809 range of lower highs under a falling ema20 at 0.68119. RSI(14) has climbed back to 36.2 from sub-30 and ATR is compressing to 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.6803, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6809, 0.68119, 0.68144
What it said to watch
Fed's Schmid in ~14 min and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this late-NY range
M15 close above 0.6809 range top and the ema20 at 0.68119 breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming 0.6814 london low negates the post-NY breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.6803 range low exposes the 0.67975 NY low for a fresh lower-low
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.6804
Lower highs from London; post-breakdown drift below 0.6810.
NY session broke the 0.6825–0.6830 London range and printed a 0.6798 session low as the hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. The bounce stalled at the 0.6814 bounce high under the ema20, and price is drifting just below the 0.6808 10-month low. RSI(14) has recovered from 25.8 to 36 and ATR is compressing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6808, 0.68126, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6808 10-month low and the ema20 at 0.6813 would show the breakdown losing traction
Break of the 0.6814 bounce high exposes the 0.6825–0.6830 breakdown area
Failure at the 0.6800 round number and the 0.6798 session low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Daly (8 min) and Schmid (28 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs; compressing in a tight band above session low.
NY session took out the 0.6814 London low and ran to a 0.67975 session low, below the 0.6808 ten-month low, as hot-CPI Fed repricing kept the USD bid. The bounce high at 0.68141 stalled between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels, close to ema20 at 0.68134. Price has since compressed into a 0.6805–0.6810 band below both EMAs, with RSI back from 25.8 to 36.8 and ATR easing to 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.68048, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6810, 0.68141, 0.68221
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could break the 0.6805–0.6810 band
Failure to hold the range base at 0.6805 exposes the 0.67975 session low
M15 close above the range top at 0.6810 and then the 0.68141 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence, with ema50 at 0.68221 next
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; bounce capped at the London low.
NY hours took out the 0.6814 London low and briefly dipped below the 0.6808 ten-month low to a 0.67975 NY low, with the USD still bid on Fed-hike repricing. The bounce from RSI(14) 25.8 stalled at the London low, now resistance near the 50% fib of the London high–NY low leg. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR at 6.1 pips.
Support: 0.68055, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68141, 0.6824, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6814 london low and the ema20 (0.68156) opens the ema50 at 0.6824
Reclaiming the ema50 brings the 0.6836 london high and the top of the fib back into view
Failure to hold the 0.6806 swing low exposes the 0.67975 ny low and the 0.6800 handle
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) after London close could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.68359; London low broken in NY, retested from below.
AUD broke below the 0.6814 London low in the second half of the NY session and briefly lost the 0.6800 round number to a 0.67975 session low. The Fed-hike repricing after the hot US CPI is driving the move. The bounce retested the broken London low near 0.6814 and was rejected under the ema20 at 0.68163, with price back near 0.6807, RSI(14) recovered to 36.7 from a sub-26 low, and ATR expanded to 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68141, 0.68163, 0.68289
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6814 london low and ema20 0.68163 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.6800 round number and the 0.67975 session low would extend the downtrend
Break of the lower-highs trendline toward the 0.6829 ny high would mark a deeper retracement of the 0.68359–0.67975 drop
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) are due within two hours; any 50bp-hike talk could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 10:45 UTC; NY lower low at 0.67975, bounce testing London low.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 0.67975 session low as USD held its post-CPI bid. The bounce has retraced into the 38.2–50% zone of the NY drop and is retesting the 0.6814 London low from below, still under ema20 (0.6818) and ema50 (0.6826) with lower highs intact. RSI(14) has recovered to 42 from 26 and ATR has expanded to 6.6 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68181, 0.68259
What it said to watch
Goolsbee speaks in ~14 min; Daly and Schmid follow within ~2.5h and could materially shift this read
M15 close above ema20 at 0.6818 and the 50% of the NY drop weakens the lower-highs sequence
Rejection at the 0.6814 London low keeps the bounce corrective
Break back below the 0.6800 round number and the 0.67975 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above ema50 at 0.6826 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows; NY range broken lower, 0.6800 briefly pierced.
The USD bid from the Fed-hike repricing carried AUDUSD through the London low at 0.6814 and out of the 0.6820–0.6829 NY range around the 15:00 UTC data. Price briefly broke the 0.6800 psych level to a session low of 0.6798. The bounce has lifted RSI(14) to 36.2 from a 25.8 trough, but price is still below ema20 (0.6819) and ema50 (0.6826), with ATR(14) expanding to 6.6 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68185, 0.68289
What it said to watch
Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, then Daly and Schmid, could extend or unwind this USD leg
A close below the 0.6798 session low resumes the lower-low sequence; holding the 0.6800 psych level keeps the bounce intact
A reclaim of the london low at 0.6814 and ema20 near 0.6819 (50% fib of the drop from 0.6836) marks a deeper retracement
A close above the lower highs trendline and the ny range top at 0.6829 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY extension · RSI 26 · price 0.68031
Lower highs and lower lows; midday range broken lower in NY.
AUD/USD broke its 0.6817–0.6829 midday range and the London low at 0.6814 during NY hours. It tagged a NY low of 0.6798 below the 0.6800 psych level as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed repricing. RSI(14) is oversold at 25.8 and ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips; price sits below both EMAs, with the lower-highs chain from 0.6851 intact.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68195, 0.68292
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the london low at 0.6814 and ema20 at 0.6820 would neutralise the range break
An M15 close below the ny low at 0.6798 and the 0.6800 psych level confirms a fresh lower low
A close above the 0.6829 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain
Goolsbee in ~45m, then Daly and Schmid within 3h, could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 27 · price 0.68065
NY broke the London low and the 0.6800 psych level, lower highs intact.
Mid-NY session, AUDUSD broke out of the 0.6824–0.6829 range (ny range top 0.6829) and through the London low at 0.68144. The slide ran through 0.6800 psych to a 0.67975 session low as USD held its post-CPI Fed-hike bid. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.9 and ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips; price sits below a falling ema20 at 0.68213 and lower highs from 0.68359 are capping.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68213, 0.6829
What it said to watch
Goolsbee speaks in ~1h; a hawkish tone on December/January hikes could extend the USD-led slide
A close back above the 0.68144 london low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Failure to hold 0.6800 psych and the 0.67975 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline and the ema20 at 0.68213 would point to a return into the old NY range
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY session · RSI 28 · price 0.68059
Lower highs from London high; London low broken, new session low.
NY session broke the 0.6822–0.6829 midday range and the 0.6814 London low, printing a session low at 0.6805 as USD holds its hawkish post-CPI bid. Price sits below both EMAs under a line of lower highs from the 0.6836 London high. RSI(14) at 28.4 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 6.3 pips, with the 0.6836–0.6807 leg the retracement reference.
Support: 0.68052, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.6823, 0.68291
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6814 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6805 session low exposes the 0.6800 round number
Rebounds meet ema20 at 0.6823 and ema50 at 0.6829; a close above the lower-highs line negates the downtrend read
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in ~74 min, Daly and Schmid later in NY hours, and could shift the USD leg
Lower highs from London high; NY range broken lower, retesting London low.
London broke below the Asian range, and lower highs off the 0.6836 London high have pushed price back to the London low near 0.6814. NY broke its 0.6817–0.6829 range and is retesting that low, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) at 35.6 and ATR expanding to 6 pips. USD firmness after the hot CPI repricing keeps AUD heavy.
Support: 0.68142, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68247, 0.68292, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6814 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6800 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6825, then the 0.6829 range top, breaks the lower-high trendline read
Recovery through the 0.6836 london high negates the intraday downtrend
Barr now and Goolsbee in ~90 min; Fed 50bp hike talk could extend the USD leg
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in NY · RSI 45 · price 0.68221
Lower highs below Asian range; tight 0.6817–0.6829 NY range.
London broke below the Asian range and printed the london low at 0.6814. The london bounce stalled at the 0.6836 swing high and has since retraced about 64%, holding under ema20 (0.68256) and ema50, with the dollar firm on Fed-hike pricing. Through NY hours price has been boxed between the ny low at 0.6817 and a range top near 0.6829; the 200K claims print produced a dip and recovery inside that range. ATR has expanded to 5.8 pips from 4.4.
Support: 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68256, 0.6829, 0.68359
What it said to watch
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in 14 minutes, then Goolsbee, Daly and Schmid, could break the NY range
M15 close below the 0.6814 london low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.6829 range top and ema20 points to the 0.6836 swing high
Tightening NY range alongside rising ATR suggests the compression is unlikely to last long
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in NY · RSI 45 · price 0.68235
Lower highs off 0.6851; NY range 0.6817–0.6829 above session low.
London open broke below the Asian low and set a session low at 0.6814. The bounce stalled at the London high of 0.6836, another lower high on the descending trendline from 0.6851, with USD firm on Fed-hike pricing. NY has compressed between the 0.6817 NY low and the 0.6829 NY high after the claims print, below the ema20 and near the 61.8% retrace of the London bounce, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.7 and ATR(14) edging up to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68258, 0.6829, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6814 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Hold above the 0.6817 NY low keeps the NY range intact
Close above the 0.6829 NY high, clearing the ema20 at 0.6826, puts the 0.6836 London high and the descending trendline in play
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~29 min, then Goolsbee and Daly, could move USD and shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY consolidating · RSI 44 · price 0.68225
Lower highs near 0.6829 above the London low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6829 to a London low of 0.68144. The rebound to 0.68359 stalled, and NY has printed lower highs near 0.6829, with the post-claims dip (200K) bottoming at the NY low of 0.68165. Price sits at the 61.8% of the London leg fib, below the ema20 (0.68261) and ema50 (0.68311), with RSI(14) 44 and ATR expanding to 5.5 pips as the USD holds firm on Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68261, 0.6829, 0.68311
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.68165 NY low and 0.68144 London low confirms a lower-low
M15 close above the 0.6829 lower highs and the ema50 at 0.68311 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in 44m, then Goolsbee and Daly, could shift this read
ATR at 5.5 pips and rising from 4.4 shows expanding NY ranges
14:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lows starting to hold · RSI 45 · price 0.68256
Lower highs below 0.6836; base forming at 0.6814–0.6817.
London broke the Asian low near 0.6829 and set a 0.6814 london low. The bounce stalled at the 0.6836 london high under the lower-highs line, and the pre-NY low at 0.6817 drew a rejection that held just above it as the post-CPI USD bid paused. Price sits just under ema20 (0.68264) and ema50 (0.68315), with RSI at 44.7 and ATR widening to 5.4 pips.
Support: 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68264, 0.68286, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian low at 0.6829 puts the 0.6836 london high and the lower-highs line back in play
Failure to hold the pre-NY low at 0.6817 and the 0.6814 london low confirms a lower-low
Barr speech and Existing Home Sales in ~1h, with Goolsbee and Daly later, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; NY holding a higher low under 0.6836.
London broke below the 0.6834–0.6851 Asian range to a london low at 0.68144, extending the post-CPI USD bid. The pre-claims dip to an ny low of 0.68165 left a higher low, and the claims bar's bounce stalled at the claims high of 0.68289. Price is back at the 0.6825 range floor, near the 50% fib of the London swing, below the ema20 (0.68267) and the ema50 (0.68318), with RSI(14) neutral at 48.3 and ATR(14) expanding to 5.4 pips.
Support: 0.6825, 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68289, 0.68318, 0.68359
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack speaks in 14 min, with Barr in 74 min; hawkish rhetoric could reopen the london low
A close below the 0.68165 ny low and then 0.68144 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and extends the downtrend
Holding the 0.6825 range floor while clearing the 0.68289 claims high and the 0.68318 ema50 puts the 0.68359 london high back in focus
A close above the 0.68359 london high invalidates the intraday lower-high structure
Lower-high sequence; 0.6814–0.6836 range in place since London.
The Asian range low gave way pre-London and London printed the session low at 0.68144 as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing. The rebound stalled at the 0.68359 swing high, extending the lower-high sequence. Price sits below ema20 (0.68267) and ema50 (0.6832); the pre-NY dip held 0.68165 ahead of jobless claims, with ATR(14) lifting to 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.68165, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68267, 0.6832, 0.68359
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.68359 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.68165 dip low and 0.68144 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of ema20 then ema50 at 0.6832 needed to neutralise the downtrend read
AUDUSD keeps printing lower highs (0.6851, 0.6848, 0.6836) as post-CPI Fed hike pricing holds against an RBA on hold. London swept the Asian low to a 0.6814 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.6836 swing high near the 61.8% retracement. Price is now compressing in a 0.6824 range low to 0.6830 range top band under the ema20 and ema50, with ATR(14) easing to 4.4 pips into the NY open.
Support: 0.6824, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.6830, 0.68329, 0.68359
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (in ~28 min) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC can break the range in either direction
M15 close below the 0.6824 range low exposes the 0.6814 session low
Acceptance above the range top and the ema50 at 0.6833 puts the 0.6836 swing high in play
Close above the 0.6836 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
12:46 UTC
Down on the day, London rebound stalled below EMAs · RSI 46 · price 0.68272
Tight 0.6824–0.6830 range after London low and partial rebound.
London broke the Asian low near 0.6829 and slid to a 0.6814 london low as post-CPI Fed-hike pricing kept the USD bid. The pair then bounced to a 0.6836 rebound high and gave back half of it. It is now holding the 50% rebound fib in a 0.6824 range low to 0.6830 range top box, below both EMAs, with the ema50 at 0.6833 overhead and ATR compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.68239, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68299, 0.68332, 0.68359
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in 44 min (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT could break the 0.6824–0.6830 range at the NY open
M15 close below the 0.6824 range low gives up the rebound fib and exposes the 0.6814 london low
Close above the 0.6830 range top and the ema50 at 0.6833 brings the 0.6836 rebound high back into play
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, rebound fading · RSI 43 · price 0.6825
Lower high at 0.6830 after 0.6836 rebound high; 0.6825 base tested three times.
London opened by breaking the Asian range low near 0.6829 and extended to a 0.6814 london low as USD held its post-CPI bid. The rebound stalled at 0.6836, and a lower high at 0.6830 has left price pressing the 0.6825 base at the 50% fib, below the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) 43 and ATR 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.6825, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68283, 0.68335, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6825 base and 50% fib exposes the 0.6814 london low
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.6830 lower high would break the lower-high sequence, with the ema50 and the 0.6836 rebound high above
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reshape the read into NY open
Higher low at 0.6825 after London low; capped under ema50.
The Asia drift lower extended into a 0.6814 session low early London as USD held its post-CPI bid. The rebound stalled at the 0.6836 London high, just above the ema50 (0.6834), and the pullback held a higher low at 0.6825 near the 50% fib. Price is pinned at the ema20 with RSI(14) at 47.9 and ATR(14) compressed to 4.5 pips ahead of NY open.
Support: 0.68249, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68338, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6836 london high clears the ema50 cap and the rebound high
Failure to hold the 0.6825 higher low exposes the 0.6814 session low
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.68278
Asian range low broken; rebound rejected at retest, higher low forming.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6834 and slid to a 0.6814 session low. The rebound stalled at 0.6836, a 59% retracement from the 0.6851 Asian high, in a retest and rejection of the broken Asian low, consistent with the USD-led Fed-RBA divergence. Price now sits below ema20 and ema50 near 0.6828, holding a higher low at 0.6825 into the London-NY transition, with ATR(14) easing to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.68249, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68287, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6825 higher low breaks the higher-low line and re-exposes the 0.6814 session low
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6829 followed by a close above the 0.6836 rebound high puts price back inside the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, rebound faded at lower high · RSI 44 · price 0.68251
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke below Asian range, rebound capped.
London broke below the Asian range (0.6834–0.6851, asia high 0.68507) and set a session low at 0.68144 as the post-CPI USD bid extended. The rebound stalled at 0.68359, a lower high on the falling highs line just above ema50 (0.68343). Price is back below ema20 (0.68288), sitting on the 50% fib of the rebound near 0.6825, with RSI(14) at 43.7 and ATR 4.6 pips late in London.
Support: 0.68226, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68288, 0.68359, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68359 lower high and the falling highs line breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.68226 exposes the 0.68144 session low; a break below it extends the lower-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
Lower highs; London broke the Asian low, bounce rejected under it.
London took out the Asian low at 0.6834 and printed a 0.6814 session low as the USD's post-CPI bid held. The bounce stalled at 0.6836, a retest of the broken asian low and the 0.6835 ema50 just under the lower-highs line. Price is back at the 50% fib of that bounce near 0.6825 and below the ema20 at 0.6829, with RSI(14) at 43.7 and ATR at 4.8 pips late in the London session.
Support: 0.68252, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68291, 0.68343, 0.68507
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in ~2h at the NY open, then Fedspeak from Hammack onward, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 50% fib near 0.6825 exposes the 0.6814 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6829 and back over the asian low at 0.6834 would undo the retest-rejection read
Only a reclaim of the lower-highs line toward the 0.6851 asian high would break the intraday downtrend
Asian range broken lower, higher-low recovery rejected at the Asian low retest.
London open broke below the Asian low at 0.6834 and ran to a 0.6814 London low as the post-CPI USD bid held. A higher-low chain then lifted price back into a retest of that level, where the rebound high at 0.6836 was rejected at the EMA50 (0.6835). Late London now sits on the EMA20 at 0.6830, with RSI(14) back to 48.8 from sub-30 readings.
Support: 0.68295, 0.68248, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68359, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6836 rebound high reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 0.6851 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6825 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and puts the 0.6814 London low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, the first hour of NY, followed by Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
ATR(14) of 4.8 pips is easing from 5.5, so the London rebound is losing range into the NY open
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off London low · RSI 53 · price 0.68327
False break of Asian low, higher lows from 0.6814, capped at ema50.
London open broke the Asian range low near 0.6829 and ran to a london low at 0.6814, then reversed back inside, printing higher lows with RSI(14) back to 53 from sub-30. Mid-London, the bounce is stalling at the ema50 (0.6835) and the 61.8% fib of the 0.6851–0.6814 drop, with AUD still heavy on USD strength after the hot US CPI.
Support: 0.68294, 0.68248, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68352, 0.68368, 0.6840
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6837 puts the round number 0.6840 and the Asia highs near 0.6847 in play
Loss of ema20 (0.6829) and the 0.6825 higher low breaks the recovery trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6814 london low resumes the downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak through NY session could materially shift this read
False break of Asian low, recovering into Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6829 to a session low at 0.6814, then reversed. Price is back inside the range at 0.6834, holding above the ema20 and pressing the ema50 at 0.6835. RSI(14) has recovered to 55 from 26, and the bounce sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 0.6851 Asian high, with AUD still heavy on Fed-RBA divergence.
Support: 0.68291, 0.68248, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68353, 0.68403, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6835 and the 0.6840 swing high opens the 0.6851 asian high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6829 and the 0.6825 higher low puts the 0.6814 session low back in play and breaks the rebound line
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and early NY Fedspeak (Hammack, Barr) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; HH/HL recovery off session low now retesting the old range low from below.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6834 and ran to a session low at 0.6814 as the USD extended its post-CPI bid. A HH/HL recovery has since carried price back to retest that Asian low from below, near the 50% retracement of the Asian high-to-session low drop, above ema20 but capped by ema50 at 0.6835. RSI(14) has rebuilt from 26.8 to 51.4 and ATR(14) sits at 5 pips.
Support: 0.68286, 0.68248, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68354, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low and ema50 (0.6834-0.6835) puts price inside the Asian range again, with the asian high at 0.6851 next
Rejection at 0.6834 leaves a lower high under the broken range
Close below the 0.6825 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and reopens the 0.6814 session low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; higher low forming off the 0.68144 London low.
London open broke below the asian low near 0.6834 as the USD bid extended AUD's slide. Price reached the 0.68144 london low, then recovered to the 38.2% fib at 0.6830. Price is back above the ema20 but still below the ema50 at 0.68355, with RSI(14) back to 48 from sub-30 readings during the drop.
Support: 0.68283, 0.68238, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68355, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6834 asian low and the 0.68355 ema50 would negate the London range break
Rejection at the broken asian low keeps the lower-high sequence from the 0.68507 asian high intact
Loss of the 0.68238 higher low exposes the 0.68144 london low; a break there extends the downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under EMAs · RSI 44 · price 0.68258
London broke the Asian range low and printed a lower low; the corrective bounce is now retesting the broken low.
London open broke below the asian low at 0.6829 and extended the USD-led slide to a session low at 0.6814. The bounce stalled at that broken level, near the 38.2% decline fib, with price just under ema20 (0.6828) and ema50 overhead at 0.6836. RSI(14) has recovered to 43.8 from 26.4 and ATR(14) is 5 pips.
Support: 0.68186, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68282, 0.68293, 0.68358
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.6829 and ema20 would turn the retest into a failed breakdown, with ema50 at 0.6836 next
A break below the 0.6819 swing low would put the 0.6814 session low back in play for a lower low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken during London, now bouncing toward it.
London broke the Asian low near 0.6834 and pushed to a session low at 0.6814 as the post-CPI USD bid held. The bounce has stalled at the 0.6829 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the 0.6848–0.6814 leg and just under a flattening ema20. RSI(14) has recovered to 46 from oversold 26, with price still below the ema50 at 0.6836.
Support: 0.68189, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68293, 0.6834, 0.68362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian low at 0.6834 and the ema50 at 0.6836 puts price back inside the Asian range and neutralises the break
Rejection at the 0.6829 bounce high and loss of the 0.6819 swing low exposes the 0.6814 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC, f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asian low at 0.6834 gave way before London as the post-CPI USD bid extended. London then pressed through the prior low at 0.6819 to a session low at 0.68144. The 12-pip bounce from there stalled at 0.6828, where the ema20 and the 61.8% retracement of the London leg fib meet, with RSI(14) recovered to 43 from sub-27.
Support: 0.68186, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68285, 0.68343, 0.68366
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6834 asian low and the 0.6837 ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 0.6819 prior low puts the 0.68144 session low in play for a fresh lower-low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR 5.3 pips and expanding; London leg range is wider than the Asian session
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London opened by breaking the Asian low near 0.6829 and set a session low at 0.6814 as the USD extended its post-CPI bid. The bounce stalled at 0.6828, where the 38.2% fib, the ema20 and the broken Asian low converge. RSI(14) has recovered to 43 from sub-27 and ATR is expanding to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.6819, 0.68144
Resistance: 0.68287, 0.6837, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6829 reclaims the Asian range and opens the 50% fib at 0.6833 and the ema50 at 0.6837
Failure to hold the 0.6819 prior low and the 0.6814 session low extends the lower-low chain
Asian high at 0.6851 caps the broader intraday structure; only a move back above it negates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers after could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 37 · price 0.68244
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside in London.
The Asian low at 0.6834 gave way into the London open, and the lower-high chain extended to a 0.6814 session low as post-CPI Fed-hike pricing keeps USD bid. Price is bouncing about 10 pips into the descending trendline near 0.6825, with the 0.6827 lower high and ema20 at 0.6829 overhead. RSI(14) has recovered to 37 from the mid-20s and ATR(14) has expanded to 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.6819, 0.6814
Resistance: 0.6827, 0.6829, 0.6834
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6827 lower high and ema20 at 0.6829 breaks the descending trendline sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6834 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Loss of the 0.6819 swing low exposes the 0.6814 session low and extends the lower-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending in London · RSI 27 · price 0.68157
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London extended the Asia slide through the Asian low at 0.6834 and the 0.6833 support zone, printing a session low at 0.6814 as the post-CPI USD bid persists. Lower highs at 0.6848 and 0.6827 hold under a falling trendline with price below the ema20 (0.6830). RSI(14) at 26.8 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 5.2 pips.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68269, 0.68298, 0.68343
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6827 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.6834 asian low would mark the London range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6814 session low exposes the 0.6800 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 30 · price 0.68207
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open pushed the Asia slide through the Asian range low near 0.6829 and SocGen's 0.6833, printing a london low at 0.6819 as the USD stays bid after the hot CPI. The bounce stalled at the 0.6827 london high under the falling ema20 and lower-high line, and 0.6819 was retested. RSI(14) sits at 29.6, oversold, with ATR at 5 pips and edging up.
Support: 0.68186, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68269, 0.68312, 0.68507
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6819 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6800 round number
An M15 close above the 0.6831 ema20 and the lower-high line breaks the sequence, with the 0.6851 asian high above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 04:15 UTC; Asian range broken lower.
AUDUSD lost the 0.68343 Asian low late in Asia and extended to a 0.68186 London low in the first hour after the open, with the USD still bid on Fed hike pricing. The lower-highs chain stays intact. The bounce has stalled at 0.68269, below the falling ema20 (0.68324). RSI(14) has recovered to 35.3 from 26.4, and ATR is 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.68186, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68269, 0.68324, 0.68343
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.68324 ema20 and the 50% retrace of the intraday drop (~0.6833) would test the lower-highs trendline read
Asian low at 0.68343 now overhead; rejection there keeps the range break intact
Failure at the 0.68269 bounce high and a break of the 0.68186 london low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6800 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack from 14:00 UTC could shift the NY session read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off lows · RSI 31 · price 0.68227
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; 0.6833 support broken.
The Asian session printed lower highs from 0.6848 and broke the digest's 0.6833 support, with the USD holding its post-CPI bid. The selling reached a session low at 0.6819 into London open. RSI(14) has lifted to 31.3 from a 26.4 dip, but the bounce is stalling under the 0.6826 rebound high, with price below both the ema20 (0.6833) and the ema50 (0.6840).
Support: 0.68186
Resistance: 0.68263, 0.68331, 0.68403
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6833 (ema20, the broken support and the 50% fib) negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.6819 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.6826 rebound high and the Asia lower-highs line (~0.6828) would mark a correction toward the ema50 at 0.6840
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London break · RSI 26 · price 0.68217
Lower highs since Asia, Asian range low broken at London open.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.6834, which is also the SocGen support and sits at the ema20 (0.68341). The break ran to a 0.6819 session low as the post-CPI USD bid and roughly 87% December Fed hike pricing kept pressure on. Lower highs at 0.6848 and 0.6837 cap the drift. RSI(14) at 26.4 is oversold, and ATR is widening to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68186, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6834, 0.6841, 0.68477
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6834 asian low and ema20 turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6819 session low opens the 0.6800 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6841 ema50 and the 0.6848 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~6h) and the Fed speakers that follow could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into London open · RSI 27 · price 0.68224
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open broke below the 0.6829 asian low and printed a 0.6819 session low. Supply stayed heavy under the descending trendline, extending the post-CPI USD bid and Fed hike pricing below the 0.6833 support zone. Price trades below a falling ema20 (0.6836) and ema50 (0.6842), with RSI(14) oversold at 26.8 and ATR at 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68186, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68286, 0.68355, 0.68418
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6829 asian low would mark the London break as a false break.
A bounce into the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia-London leg (0.6831–0.6835) overlaps the ema20, an area to watch for rejection or break.
Failure to hold the 0.6819 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.6800 psych.
A close above the ema50 at 0.6842 and the descending trendline would invalidate the intraday downtrend read.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.68262
Asian range broken lower, pressing session low early London.
AUDUSD gave way below the 0.6834 Asian low late in Asia and printed a fresh session low at 0.6825 into the London open, with highs stepping down from the 0.6851 Asian high and price under a falling ema20 (0.6837). The hawkish Fed repricing after the hot US CPI keeps the dollar bid against a soft AUD, and RSI(14) at 30.8 sits just above oversold.
Support: 0.6825, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68369, 0.68507
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.6834 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib, would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.6825 session low exposes the 0.6800 psych level
RSI(14) dipping below 30 would flag the leg as oversold
Reclaiming ema20 at 0.6837 and the 0.6851 Asian high would end the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain, fresh session low.
Asia extended yesterday's NY slide in a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows. Price printed a session low at 0.6829, just under the 0.6833 prior supp, as post-CPI USD strength held. Price sits below the ema20 and EMA50, RSI(14) at 34 is not oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.2 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.68286, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6833, 0.6838, 0.68477
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6833 prior supp and the lower-high trendline near the 0.6838 ema20 (38.2% of the Asia leg fib) would stall the sequence
Break of the 0.6829 session low keeps the chain intact, with the 0.6800 round number next
Close above the 0.6848 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend structure
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.68313
LH/LL chain; late-Asia break below 0.6833.
The Asia session added to the post-CPI USD bid. It printed lower highs from 0.68507 to 0.68373, then a fresh session low at 0.68298, just through the broken support at 0.6833. RSI(14) sits at 34.1, soft but not oversold. ATR is a compressed 4.3 pips, and price is capped below the ema20 at 0.68388 and the ema50 at 0.68438 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.68298, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6833, 0.68373, 0.68388
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6833 broken support would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 0.68373 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the LH chain; the 38.2% of the Asian swing fib aligns there with the ema20
Failure to hold the 0.68298 session low leaves the 0.6800 round number as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high/lower-low chain pinned near session low into London open.
Asia printed lower highs from 0.6851 to the 0.6848 swing high and lower lows into a 0.6832 Asia low. This extends NY's slide from 0.6875 as hot-CPI USD demand and Fed–RBA divergence keep AUD heavy. Into London open, price holds just above that low and below a falling ema20 at 0.6840, with RSI 38.8 and ATR 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.68315, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.68373, 0.68397, 0.68477
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.68315 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6830 round number
Recovery above the 0.68373 minor high and the 0.68397 ema20 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 0.68477 swing high, about the 61.8% of the drop fib, invalidates the Asia downtrend read
London open liquidity could test the Asia range extremes
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.68353
Late Asia session is extending the NY-session slide. Lower highs at the 0.6851 Asia high and 0.6848 lead to a 0.68315 session low, just under the 0.6833 support flagged in the digest, with Fed–RBA divergence after the hot US CPI keeping AUD offered. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.6840, which capped the latest bounce, with RSI(14) 40.7 and ATR 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.68315, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.68403, 0.68477
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68477 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.68315 session low and the 0.6830 round number extends the lower-low sequence
London open (07:00 UTC) may extend or reject the Asian range low
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack 14:00 could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.68354
LH/LL chain in Asia; fresh session low at 0.68315 ahead of London open.
Asia session extended Wednesday's slide to a 0.68315 session low. The Asia leg printed lower highs at the 0.68507 Asia high and the 0.68477 lower high as hawkish Fed pricing kept USD bid. Price is below the ema20 at 0.68408 and the ema50 at 0.68451, with RSI(14) at 41.6 off a 33.6 trough and ATR at 4.5 pips going into London open.
Support: 0.68343, 0.68315
Resistance: 0.68408, 0.68477, 0.68507
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.68408 (the 50% retrace of the Asia leg) would stall the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.68477 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and exposes the 0.68507 Asia high
Losing the 0.68343 prior low and the 0.68315 session low extends lower lows through the 0.6833 support cited in the digest
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Late in the Asia session, AUDUSD slipped through the 0.6834 prior low to a session low at 0.68315. That extends the lower-high sequence (0.6851, then 0.6848) as the USD stays bid on Fed hike pricing, and the steady 5.3% AU inflation expectations print gave no relief. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.6842 and the ema50. RSI(14) is 33.6, short of oversold, and ATR is 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.68315, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68421, 0.68477
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the 0.6834 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.68315 session low exposes the 0.6830 round number
M15 close above the 0.6848 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the down-sequence; a reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6842 is the first test, near the 50% of the Asia drop fib
London open in ~1.5h, then US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate, could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.68379
Late-Asia range 0.6834–0.6851 with lower highs, price at the range floor.
AUDUSD is back near the 0.6834 session low late in the Asia session. Rebounds have stalled at lower highs of 0.6851 (Asian high) and 0.6848, and price sits below the ema20 at 0.6843 and the ema50 at 0.6847, with RSI(14) at 40.3. The 5.3% inflation expectations print gave AUD no lift, and a hawkish Fed backdrop keeps the USD bid.
Support: 0.68343, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68432, 0.68477, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6834 session low exposes the 0.6833 key support. A break there would extend the lower-low sequence.
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6843 and a close above the 0.6848 lower high breaks the lower-highs line inside the range.
London open is the first test of the Asian range. US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read.
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.68391
Lower highs at 0.6851 and 0.6848 over a 0.6834 Asian low.
AUDUSD extended Wednesday's slide through the Asia session, printing an Asian low at 0.6834 as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. Rebounds have formed lower highs at the 0.6851 swing high and the 0.6848 lower high, the latter a rejection near ema50, with price back under ema20 (0.6844) and drifting toward the Asian low late in Asia. RSI(14) sits at 41 and ATR(14) at 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68437, 0.68477, 0.68507
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6834 Asian low confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.6833 support zone from the digest in play
M15 close back above ema20 at 0.6844 and the 0.6848 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 0.6851 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
London open is the first test of the Asian range
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a run of Fed speakers through NY hours could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.68443
Lower highs from 0.6851 meet higher lows off the 0.6834 Asia low.
AUD extended its slide through Asia to an Asia low of 0.6834, the lowest since March, as Fed–RBA divergence widened. In-line 5.3% inflation expectations gave no lift. Late Asia is now coiling between a higher low at 0.6842 and lower highs capped by the 0.6851 Asia high. Price sits just under a flat ema20, with ema50 at 0.6847 overhead and RSI(14) neutral at 48.7.
Support: 0.68421, 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68472, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6842 higher low puts the 0.6834 Asia low and the 0.6833 digest support back in play
Close above ema50 at 0.6847 and then the 0.6851 Asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
London open within ~2h is likely to resolve the compression; ATR(14) at 4.4 pips shows Asia ranges still tight
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above the Asian low · RSI 47 · price 0.68422
Lower highs at 0.6851 and 0.6848 pressing a 0.6834 floor.
AUDUSD extended Wednesday's NY slide into Asia on the hawkish-Fed USD bid and printed an Asian low at 0.6834. The in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print gave no lift. Late in the Asia session, price sits at 0.6842 below a flat ema20 (0.6844) and the falling ema50 (0.6847), with lower highs at 0.6851 (the Asian high) and 0.6848 compressing toward the floor; RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and ATR(14) has eased to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.68388, 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68443, 0.68477, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6834 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6833 break level
Holding the 0.6839 swing low keeps price inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.6848 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.6851 Asian high is the next cap
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reset the range during NY hours
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off Asian low · RSI 53 · price 0.68466
Lower highs from 0.6879; Asia double bottom at 0.6834–0.6835, rebound into ema50.
AUD extended its third day of losses on Fed–RBA divergence. NY broke the London lows to 0.6843 and Asia printed a double bottom at the 0.6834 asian low after in-line inflation expectations. Late Asia session has bounced to the 23.6% fib of the 24h decline, with price sitting above ema20 at 0.68444 and capped just under ema50 at 0.68477, RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.68444, 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68477, 0.68507, 0.6853
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68507 session high clears ema50 and puts the 0.6853 ny range top in play
Failure back under ema20 at 0.68444 reopens the 0.6834 asian low; a break there tests the widely cited 0.6833 support
London open is the next test of the Asian range; US jobless claims and Fedspeak later today could reprice USD
Asia range 0.6834–0.6851 after lower lows, twin lows at base.
AUD extended its slide in Asia as Fed hike bets kept USD bid, with twin lows at 0.6835/0.6834 setting the session low just above the 0.6833 support zone. The rebound has retraced about three-quarters of the drop from the Asian high and sits between ema20 (0.6844) and ema50 (0.6848), with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.68442, 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68477, 0.68507, 0.68551
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6851 asian high completes the double bottom and breaks the Asia range
Loss of the rising rebound line and ema20 puts the 0.6834 session low back in play
A break below the session low and 0.6833 resumes the lower-low sequence; the 0.6855 rollover hi caps above the range
London open could set direction out of the Asia range
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Thursday Fedspeak could shift this read
Lower highs intact; twin lows 0.6834–0.6835 in Asia.
The post-CPI USD bid carried AUD to a 0.6834 session low mid-Asia, just above the 0.6833 key support, before a rebound lifted price back above ema20 (0.6844) with RSI(14) neutral at 51. The twin lows at 0.6834–0.6835 form a possible double bottom, but price is still under ema50 (0.6848), the asian high at 0.6851 and the falling trendline of lower highs.
Support: 0.6844, 0.68343, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68478, 0.68507
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6851 asian high confirms the double bottom and clears the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6834 session low puts the 0.6833 key support in play
ATR(14) has expanded from 3.3 to 5 pips; swings are widening into the Asia session lows
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and heavy Fedspeak later today could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce off lows · RSI 50 · price 0.68426
Lower highs since London; Asia low swept and reclaimed.
London and NY sold the pair from 0.6872 to 0.6843 on post-CPI dollar strength and 87% December Fed hike odds. Mid-Asia, a sweep of the 0.6835 low to the 0.68343 asia low was reclaimed, putting price between ema20 (0.68438) and ema50 (0.68479) with RSI(14) neutral at 50.4. The pair is sitting in the 0.6845–0.6833 march low zone.
Support: 0.68438, 0.68343, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68479, 0.68507, 0.6853
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 0.68479 and the 0.68507 session high breaks the lower-highs chain, putting the 0.6853 ny range top in view
Failure to hold the 0.68343 asia low exposes the 0.6833 march low
ATR(14) expanded from 3.2 to 5.1 pips through Asia, so swings are widening into London open
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could reprice 50bp odds and shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.6841
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce off 0.6834 capped below ema20.
The Asia session extended Wednesday's USD-driven slide, with hike odds firm after the hot CPI. A lower low at the 0.6834 session low printed into the March-lows zone; the bounce is stalling under the ema20 at 0.6844 and the falling ema50 at 0.6848, roughly a 38% retrace of the Asia drop fib. ATR(14) has expanded to 5 pips from under 3 at the open, and the in-line inflation expectations print added no new impulse.
Support: 0.6834
Resistance: 0.6844, 0.6848, 0.6851
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6851 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6834 session low extends the lower-low chain into the 0.6833 March-lows zone
Holding under the ema20 keeps the bounce a shallow retrace of the Asia drop fib
London open may test the Asia range; US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers could shift USD tone
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh Asia low at 0.6834.
Asia session tagged a fresh asia low at 0.6834, inside the 0.6845-0.6833 March-low zone. That extends the lower-high chain from the 0.6872 europe high, while the post-CPI USD bid and near-full December Fed hike pricing weigh on AUD. Price sits below ema20 (0.6844) and ema50, ATR(14) has expanded to 4.9 pips from 2.4, and RSI(14) at 37.8 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.68343
Resistance: 0.6844, 0.68507, 0.68719
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6834 asia low and the 0.6833 March low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6844 and a break of the 0.6851 lower high would invalidate the lower-high trendline read
London open is the next test of whether the Asia low holds
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce faded · RSI 45 · price 0.68418
Lower highs below EMAs; Asia bounce rejected near ema50.
The London-NY slide on yesterday's hot US CPI tailwind extended in the Asia session to a 0.68354 asia low around the in-line consumer inflation expectations print. The bounce stalled at the 0.68507 swing high just above ema50. Price is back below both EMAs at the 61.8% of the asia bounce fib, RSI(14) 45 and ATR(14) 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68388, 0.68354, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68448, 0.68488, 0.68507
What it said to watch
Swing low at 0.68388 is the first test; holding it keeps the Asia higher low intact
Break of the asia low at 0.68354 brings the 0.6833 march low zone into play
ema20 at 0.68448 is the first cap; a close back above ema50 and the 0.68507 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later today could reprice the USD side of this read
Lower highs since London; Asia higher lows off 0.6835.
Asia session pushed to a 0.6835 Asian low near the late-March zone around the in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print. It then rebounded on higher lows but met rejection at the 0.6851 asia high, just above the ema50 at 0.6849, with price holding over the ema20 at 0.6845 as the USD stays firm after the hot CPI. RSI(14) recovered from 31.6 to 52 and ATR expanded to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.6845, 0.6839, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6849, 0.6851, 0.6855
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6851 asia high and the ema50 opens the 0.6855 rollover high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6845 and the rebound line returns focus to the 0.6839 pivot low
Break of the 0.6835 Asian low puts the 0.6833 late-March zone in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers today could shift this read
Lower highs since London; higher low at 0.6843 after Asia sweep.
Asia pushed through the 0.6839 lows to a 0.6835 session low after the in-line inflation expectations print. Price then bounced about 13 pips back above the ema20 and is retesting the 0.6848 session high, with the ema50 at 0.6849 just overhead. The broader slide from 0.6875 since London reflects the hawkish Fed repricing after the hot US CPI, and RSI has recovered from 31.6 to 52.6 while ATR expanded to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68448, 0.68432, 0.68354
Resistance: 0.68484, 0.68491, 0.6853
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6849 and the 0.6853 ny range top breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the higher low and the 0.6843 ny low reopens the 0.6835 session low
Break of the session low puts the 0.6833 March-low zone in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC during NY hours could shift the read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce under test · RSI 54 · price 0.68447
Lower highs from 0.6872; Asia swept to 0.6835 and rebounded into the ema50.
Lower highs through London and NY took AUDUSD from 0.6880 into the 0.6845 area as USD extended its post-CPI bid. The Asia session broke below 0.6839 to a 0.6835 low around the in-line inflation expectations print, then the Asia drop was retraced to 0.6848. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.6845 but stays capped under the ema50 near 0.6849, with ATR(14) expanding from 2.6 to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68446, 0.68354
Resistance: 0.68492, 0.6853
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and the 0.6853 NY range top breaks the lower-high sequence
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.6845 returns focus to the 0.6835 Asia low
Failure to hold the 0.6835 Asia low puts the 0.6833-0.6840 late-March support zone in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed-speaker tone on 50bp could shift USD later in the day
Lower highs and lower lows since London; Asia low at 0.6835 rebounded to the ema50.
Hot US CPI and rising Fed hike bets drove a steady London-NY slide from 0.6875 to 0.6843. Asia then extended to a 0.6835 low near the late-March zone, where price was rejected and rebounded past the 61.8% of the NY high-asia low fib to stall just under the ema50 at 0.6849. RSI has recovered to 50.8 and ATR has widened to 4.7 pips from 2.6.
Support: 0.68442, 0.68354
Resistance: 0.68493, 0.68528
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6849 and the ny range top at 0.6853 breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6844 puts the asia low at 0.6835 back in focus
Break below the 0.6835 asia low opens the 0.6833 late-March support zone
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia rebound · RSI 52 · price 0.68468
Lower highs from London; Asia swept below the NY range and reclaimed it.
London and NY extended the post-CPI slide from 0.6875 to the 0.6845–0.6853 NY range, with Fed-RBA divergence still the driver. Early Asia swept the 0.6839 prior low to a 0.68354 sweep low inside the 0.6840–0.6833 support zone after the in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print. Price rebounded back above the ema20 to the 61.8% retrace, with RSI(14) recovering from 31.6 to 52.4 and ATR expanding to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.68441, 0.68388, 0.68354
Resistance: 0.68494, 0.6853
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 at 0.6844 and the 0.6839 prior low shifts the read back to downtrend continuation
Failure to hold the 0.68354 sweep low confirms a lower-low through the 0.6840–0.6833 zone
Close above the ema50 at 0.6849 and the 0.6853 ny range top invalidates the lower-high sequence
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.68398
Lower-high/lower-low chain below both EMAs, pressing Tuesday low zone.
Thursday's Asia session is extending Wednesday's Fed-driven slide. Lower highs are capped under the ema20 at 0.6844 and a new session low printed at 0.6835, inside the 0.6840–0.6833 tuesday low zone. The in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print did not lift the pair; RSI(14) is 43 after a 31.6 dip, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.3 pips from 2.4.
Support: 0.68354, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68438, 0.68462, 0.68495
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6833 (tuesday low) extends the lower-low chain into fresh lows
Close above the 0.6846 lower high and the ema50 at 0.6850 breaks the lower-highs trendline read
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift USD pricing
Asia session pushed through the 0.6840 Tuesday low after the in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print. That extends a chain of lower highs from the 0.6855 rollover spike, with price below both EMAs and ATR(14) up to 4.2 pips from 2.4. RSI(14) at 31.6 is approaching, but not in, oversold territory, and the 0.6833 support zone sits just under the 0.6835 session low.
Support: 0.68354, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6840, 0.6844, 0.68498
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6840 Tuesday low marks the break as a false break
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6844 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Acceptance below the 0.6833 support zone extends the downtrend toward fresh lows
Close above the ema50 at 0.6850 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 0.6872; early Asia holding 0.6839.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.6872 London-session failure, with hot US CPI-led USD demand keeping price below ema20 and ema50 (RSI(14) 39.7, ATR 4 pips). Early in the Asia session the 0.6839 session low has held twice, including after the in-line 5.3% inflation expectations print, while the 0.6846 swing high caps the first bounce inside the 0.6872–0.6839 decline.
Support: 0.68388, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68449, 0.68462, 0.68504
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6839 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6833 socgen level
M15 close above the 0.6846 swing high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing ema50 at 0.6850
Retracement into the 38.2% of the decline near 0.6851 is the first test for supply
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak later Thursday could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from Asian high; early Asia testing swing low.
Lower highs at 0.6872 (London high), 0.6855 (rollover spike high) and 0.6846 cap the slide, with price pressing the 0.6839 swing low early in Asia after in-line Consumer Inflation Expectations (5.3%) gave AUD no lift against hot-CPI USD strength. Price sits below both falling EMAs (ema20 0.68453, ema50 0.68508), RSI 36 is not oversold, and ATR has expanded to 4.1 pips from 2.4.
Support: 0.68388, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68462, 0.68508, 0.68551
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6839 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6833 zone floor
Reclaim of the 0.6846 lower high and the 0.6851 ema50 (near the 38.2% fib of the London high move) breaks the lower-high sequence
Holding below the 0.6855 spike high (50% fib) keeps the downtrend read intact
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia pause · RSI 42 · price 0.6844
Lower highs from 0.6885, NY range broken lower after rollover.
Lower highs from yesterday's 0.6885 Asia high held as post-CPI USD demand persisted. The 0.6843–0.6853 NY range broke lower after rollover, printing a new session low at 0.6839 inside the late-March 0.6845–0.6833 support zone. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6846) and ema50 (0.6851), RSI(14) 41.5 off a 31.8 dip, and ATR(14) has expanded to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.68389, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68459, 0.68512, 0.6853
What it said to watch
Consumer Inflation Expectations (00:00 GMT, current bar) could move this read
Close below the 0.6833 zone floor extends the lower-low chain beyond the session low
Recovery above the ema50 and the 0.6853 NY range top would break the lower-highs trendline read
Failure to hold above the ema20 at 0.6846 keeps the range break intact