Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 head; post-H&S breakdown leg.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 head of the head and shoulders. The leg after the hot US core CPI extended the breakdown to a 0.6798 swing low as Fed-RBA divergence widened, and the latest low sits around the 0.6808 ten-month low flagged in the market digest. Price is below both the ema20 (0.6857) and the ema50 (0.6906), RSI at 26.4 is oversold, and ATR(14) has eased to 20.5 pips from near 25. The grind lower is decelerating rather than expanding.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6845, 0.6885, 0.69055
What it said to watch
H4 acceptance below the 0.6798 swing low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the ten-month low
Recovery above the 0.6845 prior low, which is also near the 38.2% fib, would mark the first break of the lower-high rhythm
A close above the 0.6885 lower high, at the 61.8% fib, and the ema50 at 0.6906 would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Williams in ~90 min and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD rate pricing
RBA minutes and Bullock on Tue 17 Nov are the next domestic test of the pause narrative
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but extending · RSI 25 · price 0.6804
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 peak.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 0.7068 head, rolling from 0.7024 to 0.6930 to 0.6885 after the head and shoulders broke down on the hot US CPI beat and Fed–RBA divergence. The latest leg undercut the 0.6845 cpi low to a fresh swing low at 0.6798. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6862) and ema50 (0.6910), RSI is oversold at 24.9 with no divergence, and ATR has compressed from about 25 to 21 pips as the slide grinds on smaller ranges.
Support: 0.6798
Resistance: 0.6845, 0.6862, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6845 cpi low and the lower-high line, near the 38.2% fib of the 0.6930–0.6798 swing, signals the breakdown is stalling
Close above the 0.6885 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.6798 swing low extends the lower-low structure
Fed's Daly, Schmid and Williams today and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBA minutes and Bullock Tue 00:00–00:30 UTC are the next domestic test
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak. Each rebound has stalled below the one before it: 0.7024, then 0.6930, then the 0.6885 lower high. A falling lower-highs line from 0.6930 has capped every bounce this week. Hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp warning drove the latest leg through 0.6900 and below the 0.6843 broken low to a fresh swing low at 0.6814, with price under a falling ema20 (0.6868) and ema50 (0.6914). RSI at 28.4 is oversold, but ATR(14) has eased from 24.7 to 20.6 pips, so the slide is grinding lower rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68434, 0.68682, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6843 broken low and the lower-highs line would break the week's capping structure
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.6868 and the 0.6885 lower high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6814 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Fed speakers today (Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
RBA minutes and Bullock speech Tue Nov 17 are the next AUD-side test of RBA-pause pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-Oct peak.
AUDUSD has made successive lower highs at 0.7024, 0.6931 and 0.6885 since the late-Oct peak. The NFP beat and the hot US CPI each forced a fresh break lower, the latest to a swing low at 0.6814 as Fed-RBA divergence widens. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6873) and ema50 (0.6917) with RSI at 28.8 oversold, while ATR has eased from 24.8 to 20.7 pips, so the selling is grinding rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.6814, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6843, 0.6873, 0.6931
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6843 prior low reclaims the CPI-day break level and tests the ema20 at 0.6873
Failure to hold the 0.6814 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Recovery through the 0.6931 swing high and the lower-high line would break the downtrend structure
Jobless Claims and Fedspeak today, plus US core PPI on Friday, could extend the USD-led leg or trigger a short-covering bounce
RBA's Bullock and the minutes on Tue are the next test of the dovish-RBA premise behind the decline
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 31 · price 0.68352
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak. The strong NFP and Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the two impulsive legs lower as Fed–RBA divergence widened. Price is now grinding into the 0.6832 swing low beneath a falling ema20 (0.6878) and ema50 (0.6921), capped by the lower-high trendline from 0.6931. RSI at 30.9 sits just above oversold, and ATR(14) has eased from 25.3 to 20.6 pips, a compression rather than an expanding sell-off.
Support: 0.68315, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68778, 0.6885, 0.69211
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6832 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6878 and the 0.6885 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the current swing structure
50%–61.8% fib of the 0.6931–0.6832 leg (0.6881–0.6893) overlaps the lower high, so it is the first area for rejection or break on any rebound
US jobless claims and Fed speakers today, then Core PPI Friday, could shift USD pricing and this read
RBA Bullock speech and Minutes (Tue 17 Nov) are the main AUD-side risk to the downtrend structure