Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October top.
AUDUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from 0.7024 to 0.6931 to 0.6885 since the late-October top. The hot US CPI beat and Fed hike repricing drove a five-session slide through the 0.6800 round number to a 10-month swing low at 0.6769. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6826), which remains under the ema50 (0.6881). RSI at 21.1 is oversold with no bullish divergence. ATR has eased from 24.8 to 20.1 pips, so the decline is extending as a steady grind rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.67691, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68262, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6800 round number would mark the first reclaim of broken support in the slide
Close above the 0.6885 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6769 swing low extends lower lows toward the 0.6700 psych level
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could reprice the 50bp hike odds
RBA Governor Bullock and the RBA minutes (Tue 00:00–00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fib 38.2% near 0.6831 sits close to the ema20 as the first retracement test
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 22 · price 0.67745
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October peak.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence from 0.7068 to 0.6931 and then 0.6885. The hot US CPI print broke the pair below 0.6900 and it has since ground to a fresh swing low at 0.6772, beneath a falling ema20 (0.6832) and ema50 (0.6885). RSI at 21.6 is oversold and still making lower lows with no bullish divergence. ATR has eased from about 24 to 21 pips, which points to an orderly grind lower rather than capitulation, with the 0.6800 pivot of former support now overhead.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68318, 0.6885
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 0.6800 pivot would mark the first reclaim of broken support
A break above the 0.6885 lower high, which coincides with ema50, invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6772 swing low extends the move, with the 0.6700 round number next
Fed's Jefferson in ~6h and Warsh on Monday could shift USD pricing materially
Bullock and the RBA minutes on Tuesday, followed by US Retail Sales, are the next AUD-side risk
AUDUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs (0.7068, 0.7024, 0.6931, 0.6885) and lower lows, with the hot US CPI on Tuesday driving the break below 0.6900 and a grind to a fresh swing low at 0.6781. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6838 and EMA(50) at 0.6890, with the EMA(20) under the EMA(50). RSI at 24.4 is oversold, and ATR(14) has eased from about 25 to 20 pips, so the latest leg lower is extending on narrower ranges.
Support: 0.67813, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68376, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6800 psych level and the lower-high line would be the first break in the descending sequence
Recovery of the ema20 near 0.6838, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the 0.6931-0.6781 leg, would mark a deeper correction
Failure to hold the 0.6781 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6700 round number
Fed's Bowman and Daly speak today, and Warsh speaks Monday; 50bp December hike talk could extend USD strength
RBA minutes and Bullock on Tuesday could challenge the priced RBA pause
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-Oct peak.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs at 0.7024, 0.6931 and 0.6885 since the late-October top. The strong NFP and the hot October CPI each produced a fresh leg down, and price now sits at a new swing low at 0.6784, below the 0.6800 psych pivot. Price trades under both EMAs, with EMA(20) below EMA(50) and both sloping lower. RSI at 25.2 is oversold and flattening across the last two lows, while ATR(14) has eased from 24.8 to 20.1 pips, so the slide is grinding rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.67838, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68424, 0.6885
What it said to watch
US October PPI in ~3.5h could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a squeeze back through the 0.6800 psych pivot
An H4 close above 0.6800 that then clears the ema20 near 0.6842 would break the lower-high trendline and stall the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6784 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6700 round number
A reclaim of the 0.6885 lower high would mark the first higher high since late October
RBA minutes and Governor Bullock on Tue 17 Nov could shift the AUD side of the divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October top.
Lower highs at 0.6931 and 0.6885 and successive lower lows since the 0.7068 late-October top. The hot US CPI and Fed-RBA divergence drove the break below 0.6900, and the grind has since pushed through the 0.6800 psych level to a 0.6792 swing low. Price sits below both falling EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and RSI 25.3 is oversold while ATR(14) has eased to 20.4 pips, a steady grind rather than an accelerating move.
Support: 0.67922, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68474, 0.6885
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a short-covering bounce
H4 close back above 0.6800 psych, then a test of ema20 near 0.6847, which also sits at the 38.2% fib of the 0.6931-0.6792 leg
H4 close above the 0.6885 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6792 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 0.6750 round number
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 peak; EMA20 below EMA50, both sloping down.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence since the 0.7068 peak: 0.7024, 0.6931, then 0.6885. Each bounce failed under the descending line after the strong NFP and hot US CPI beat pushed USD to 19-month highs. Price is now pressing the 0.6797 swing low just above the 0.6800 handle, with RSI(14) oversold at 28.4 and ATR(14) easing from 24.8 to 20.3 pips. The latest push lower is losing range rather than accelerating. Price sits below both the ema20 at 0.6853 and the ema50 at 0.6902, and the two remain in bearish alignment.
Support: 0.6797
Resistance: 0.68528, 0.6885, 0.69018
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read; a hot print pressures the 0.6797 swing low
H4 close below 0.6797 swing low and the 0.6800 handle extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.6853 puts the 0.6885 lower high and the 38.2% fib zone near 0.6849 in play
H4 close above the 0.6885 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high structure; the ema50 at 0.6902 sits just above
RBA Governor Bullock and RBA minutes (Tue 17 Nov 00:00-00:30 UTC) are the next AUD-side catalyst