22:26 UTC
Downtrend, momentum accelerating · RSI 30 · price 0.67736
Lower highs and lower lows since early-September peak; October low broken.
AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the early-September high at 0.7237. A lower high at 0.7068 in late October was followed by a break of the 0.6894 October low this week, after the hot US CPI print and Fed–RBA divergence added pressure. Price now sits at a fresh swing low near 0.6769, a 10-month low, below a falling EMA(50) at 0.6985 and the ema20 at 0.6928. RSI is at 30.2, just above oversold, while ATR has expanded from 41 to 53 pips as the selling has gathered pace.
Support: 0.67691, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.68432, 0.68939, 0.69282
What it said to watch
- Failure to hold the 0.6769 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6700 round number
- Rebounds capped below the 0.6843 broken low keep the lower-highs line from the September high intact
- Daily close back above the 0.6894 oct low and ema20 would mark the October-low break as a false break
- Warsh speech (Mon 16 Nov) and Bullock plus RBA minutes (Tue 17 Nov) could materially shift this read
- RSI closing below 30 would register the first oversold reading of the leg off the September high fib anchor